Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy A key to a better tomorrow

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy A key to a better tomorrow Mr. Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director International Energy Agency ISO Open Session 17 September 2009 Cape Town 1

2 World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable! Mtoe Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas Coal Oil World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise

3 Energy-related CO 2 emissions in Business as Usual Scenario Gigatonnes International marine bunkers and aviation Non OECD gas Non OECD oil Non OECD coal OECD gas OECD oil OECD coal World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA 97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non OECD countries three quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

4 Energy-related CO 2 emissions in the 450 Policy Scenario Gigatonnes International marine bunkers and aviation Non OECD gas Non OECD oil Non OECD coal OECD gas OECD oil OECD coal World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA 97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non OECD countries three quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

5 Achieving the 450 ppm scenario 45 e s n a to ig G Reference Scenario 35% (5.2 Gt reduction) OECD+ Non OECD 65% (9.5 Gt reduction) CCS 21% Nuclear 14% Renewables & biofuels 18% Energy efficiency 47% CCS 10% Nuclear 6% Renewables & biofuels 25% Energy efficiency 59% World total CCS 14% Nuclear 9% Renewables & biofuels 23% Energy Efficiency 54% Policy Scenario World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA OECD and non-oecd countries must both work towards reducing CO 2 emissions Energy efficiency plays a key role for both OECD and non-oecd countries To inform the international climate negotiations, the IEA will release an early excerpt of the WEO 2009 climate change analysis, to coincide with post-kyoto negotiations this 5 September

6 Energy efficiency is the most important fuel Hypothetical energy use without energy efficiency improvements 58% Energy savings due to energy efficiency improvements Oil and Oil Products Exajoules Actual Energy Use Natural Gas Coal and Coal Products Other energy sources Electricity

7 IEA 25 energy efficiency policy recommendations across 7 priority areas 1. Across sectors 1.1 Measures for increasing investment in energy efficiency; 1.2 National energy efficiency strategies and goals; 1.3 Compliance, monitoring, enforcement and evaluation of energy efficiency measures; 1.4 Energy efficiency indicators; 1.5 Monitoring and reporting progress with the IEA energy efficiency recommendations themselves. 2. Buildings 2.1 Building codes for new buildings; 2.2 Passive Energy Houses and Zero Energy Buildings; 2.3 Policy packages to promote energy efficiency in existing buildings; 2.4 Building certification schemes; 2.5 Energy efficiency improvements in glazed areas. 3. Appliances 3.1 Mandatory energy performance requirements or labels; 3.2 Low-power modes, including standby power, for electronic and networked equipment; 3.3 Televisions and set-top boxes; 3.4 Energy performance test standards and measurement protocols. 4. Lighting 4.1 Best practice lighting and the phaseout of incandescent bulbs; 4.2 Ensuring least-cost lighting in nonresidential buildings and the phase-out of inefficient fuel-based lighting. 5. Transport 5.1 Fuel-efficient tyres; 5.2 Mandatory fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles; 5.3 Fuel economy of heavy-duty vehicles; 5.4 Eco-driving. 6. Industry 6.1 Collection of high quality energy efficiency data for industry; 6.2 Energy performance of electric motors; 6.3 Assistance in developing energy management capability; 6.4 Policy packages to promote energy efficiency in small and medium-sized enterprises. 7. Utilities 7. Utilities 7.1 Utility end-use energy efficiency schemes 7

8 CO 2 savings potential Global implementation of recommendations could save 8.2 GtCO 2 /yr by 2030; this is equivalent to 20% of global reference scenario energy related CO 2 emissions in

9 Total power generation capacity today and in 2030 by scenario Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Other renewables 1.2 x today 1.5 x today 1.8 x today 2.1 x today 13.5 x today 12.5 x today Coal and gas with CCS % of today s s coal & gas capacity Today Reference Scenario Policy Scenario 2030 GW In the 450 Policy Scenario, the power sector undergoes a dramatic change with renewables, CCS, and nuclear each playing a crucial role 9

10 Share of Renewables in World Electricity Generation Policy Scenario 100% 1% 1% 1% 75% 18% 16% 15% 5% 13% 22% 40% Hydrogen Other Renewables 50% 6% 20% 18% Biomass & Waste Hydro Nuclear Gas 25% 41% 18% Oil Coal 2% 21% 0% World Energy Outlook 2008 In the 450 Policy Scenario, Renewables accounts in 2030 for 40% of the total electricity generation worldwide, up from 18 % today 9

11 Principles of good policy design Predictable and transparent Transitional Tailored to suit technology maturity System friendly + International policy framework for negotiation in Copenhagen 11

12 17 Key Technology Roadmaps Supply side Demand side CCS power generation Nuclear III + IV Wind Biomass IGCC & co-combustion Solar PV Solar CSP Coal IGCC Coal USCSC 2nd generation biofuels Energy efficiency in buildings Heat pumps Solar space and water heating Energy efficiency in transport Electric and plug-in vehicles Fuel cell vehicles CCS in industry Industrial motor systems 13

13 Change in world energy investment in the 450 Policy relative to the Reference Scenario, World Energy Outlook 2008 Huge investment in power plants and energy efficiency will be required if we are to shift the world onto a 450 ppm trajectory 10

14 Conclusions Current energy trends are unsustainable economically, socially and environmentally Need a major decarbonisation of the world s energy system Energy efficiency and clean energy technologies, including renewable energy are central to achieve 450 ppm Climate change measures also enhance energy security Economic/financial crisis is an opportunity to kickstart the transition through economic stimulus packages International standards play a vital role in: Reducing the costs of policy development Ensuring policy consistency Monitoring energy and CO2 savings Ensuring quality, performance and reliability of energy products Building consumer and government confidence in EE and RE 14