Present and future of the CHINESE CAR INDUSTRY. opportunities and risks for the Mexican market
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1 Present and future of the CHINESE CAR INDUSTRY opportunities and risks for the Mexican market Prof. Dr. Bernd Leissner 1
2 Overview economic framework Chinese automotive market sustainable development of China's auto industry summary 2
3 economic framework 3
4 comparison China- Mexico population sq km
5 100 cities > 1 Mio. people 20 cities > 5 Mio. people more than 80 languages (dialects) 23 provinces 4 Municipalities 5 Autonomous Regions 2 Special Administrative Regions 5
6 Challenge:infrastructure building G015 G010 Highways in China 2004: 34,000 km G045 G040 until 2010: 55,000 km Until 2030: 85,000 km G035 Mexico in 2008: km G065 G025 G075 G055 G050 G030 G020 Development of Railways in China 2004: 74,400 km 2010: 90,000 km 6
7 economic development the stable policy and the progressive chinese economy are a big succes of the chinese goverment Share ot the Three Components of GDP in % 14 stable growth in % GDP Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Net Export Investments Consumption 7
8 income development , % 7.7% 9, % 10, % 10.4% 13,786 11, % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 2020: 73,09 % 2010: 42,46 % 2001: 28,64 % % % % Annual Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Households (Yuan) growth rate (> 30,000 RMB per year/household) 8
9 Billion USD Billion USD economic development Foreign Trade Development Balance 1400 Imp/Exp Value Export Import Balance Export Import Balance (12.2)
10 Billion USD economic development Foreign Exchange Rate and Reserve Foreign Ex Reserve Ex Rate Against USD Ex Rate Against EUR 1,128 1, , ,067 1, ,
11 economic development Exportmarkt 2006 Importmarkt 2006 Japan 9% ASEAN 7% Korea 4% USA 21% others 34% Japan 15% Korea 11% Hongkong 16% others 25% EU 18% USA 7% EU 11% Taiwan 11% ASEAN 11% Source: Ministry of Commerce China 11
12 economic development 75 increasing FDI in bill. US $ Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 12
13 economic development Principles National 11th Five Year Plan ( ) : Stability of economic development while maintaining reasonable growth Efficiency of resource input and quality of growth Capability of Chinese-dominated innovation Harmonized development of urban and rural areas Harmonization between economy, society and environment Deeper reform and further opening-up 13
14 Chinese automotive market 14
15 China's vehicle production (in Mio. units) Since minivan sector is calculated as passenger vehicle as result of new industrial definition Source of Information: CAAM Passenger Cars Production Commercial Vehicle Production 15
16 Thousands Car Market Sales by Segment (With FBU, excl. minivan) % 3,294 26% , , ,252 1, % 1,312 73% 16% 2,266 2,623 22% 4, , D C B A A0 A00 16
17 China Passenger Car Market Development Passenger car sales growth in China ['000 units] Key factors for growth Total Market* average: 34% 22% 4, ,294 2, % Direct factors: Rapid and sustainable economic development Increasing personal income WTO impact (lowering import tariff leads to local produced cars price down) Introduction of auto financing Continuous reduction of the prices Indirect factors: Launch of more new car line brands and models Favorable government policies * Total market does not include HK 17
18 Million Units Overall Capacity & Utilization of Major Carmakers 7 Capacity Utilization 85% % 67% 74% 74% 60% 57% 69% % 65% 55% % 35% % 18
19 Light vehivle market China-Mexico in Mio. units China Mexico 19
20 Chinese-foreign joint ventures (JV's) Sanjiang-Renault Dongfeng Citroen Wuhan Fengshen (Nissan) Xiangfan Chang an Automotive Chongqing FAW-Toyota Chengdu Guizhou-Yunque Daimler Crysler / Mitsubishi / Hyundai Beijing D-C Zhengzhou-Nissan Jinbei-GM / BMW- Brilliance Shenyang Volkswagen / Audi / Toyota / Mazda Changchun Toyota Tianjin Daewoo / GM Yantai Yueda-Kia Yancheng Fiat Nanjing Volkswagen/Skoda / GM Shanghai Jiangling Nanchang Shanghai-GM Liuzhou Mazda Haikou Mitsubishi Changsha Dongnan Mitsubishi Fuzhou Honda / Nissan Guangzhou Mexico: VW, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan/Renault 20
21 Ranking of China s automotive industry Mio. vehs. Ranking 2007 (2006) Japan USA China Germany 6,213 cars light trucks 8,880 11,596 10,752 S. Corea France Brazil Spain Canada India Mexico 4,086 3,004 2,973 2,890 2,578 2,275 2,095 Sorce: VDA, R.L. Polk Marketing Systems, press information 21
22 Millions Market Forecast through 2020 by DRC in Car Demand Vehicle Demand 18% Car Demand Growth Vehicle Demand Growth % % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Source: Development Research Center (DRC) of the State Council, P.R.China 22
23 Light vehicle density in mill cars density/100 people in 2004: USA: 95 Germany: 54 Mexico: 12 South Africa: 9 China: 0,8 (1.35 bill. people,72 mill. pass. cars,8% GDP p.a.) despite an anual GDP of about 8% less than 5 cars/100 23
24 sustainable development of China's auto industry 24
25 Risks imports of commodities in mill. tons crude oil steel copper aluminium Source: Ministry of Commerce China 25
26 Million M/T Oil Consumption Supply Oil Net Import Oil Consumption Import Reliance Rate 60% % 20% 8% 8% % % % 33% E Forecast by: the State Leading Group of Energy Affair, P.R.China 26
27 Sustainable Development of China Auto Industry correlations to be dealt with : governments policy guidance and consumer wishes consumption versus energy and environment mass production and infrastructure public versus private traffic "the rich and the poor" 27
28 Sustainable Development of China Auto Industry challenges : Cars for the Chinese market are becoming more technically sophisticated Technical expertise of local suppliers in some areas insufficient Not all suppliers have optimized quality assurance system Some materials not locally available (e.g. different types of steel) Dependent relationship between the Chinese Joint Venture partners and their supplier networks high tariffs on parts and materials Opportunity to achieve a platform strategy providing scale economies of common and carry over parts 28
29 Sustainable Development of China Auto Industry Focus on procurement : Bundling of purchasing volume (China) Reducing investments for tooling Enhancing competition Generating economies of scale & scope due to high volume Increasing volume and depth of local content 29
30 FAW-Volkswagen und Shanghai Volkswagen Founding year 1984 FAW: 60%/ VW AG: 30%/ Audi AG: 10% Equity share VW AG: 50%/ SAIC Motor: 50% Fzg. Sales volume Fzg. 8,97% Market share 8,59 % Employment Bora GP Caddy Sagitar Audi A6 Passat LY Touran Santana 3000 Octavia Golf Jetta Magotan Audi A4 Polo Jinqing Polo Jinqu Santana Gol 30
31 Thousands Volkswagen Group CKD Sales and Share 1,000 90% % 800 FAW-VW Sales SVW Sales Market Share (CKD) 70% % 58% 57% 60% 54% 60% % 49% 51% 50% 45% 39% 31% 50% 40% % 30% % 17% 18% 20% % % 31
32 Summary 32
33 Sustainable Development of China Auto Industry challenges : environmental protection better fuel consumption/alternative fuel solutions traffic safety more national R&D activities international efficiency of local suppliers ready to export parts and later cars 33
34 Trends in the Chinese automotive industry Strong growth in the car market Faster growth of small cars Chinese brands increasing market share/ pressure on foreign companies R&D activities on alternative technologies and products Growth of vehicle exports Reorganization (merger and acquisition) within state owned enterprises 34
35 MUCHAS GRACIAS POR SU ATENCION 35
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