Does Regulatory Independence Matter?

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1 Does Regulatory Independence Matter? Effects of Public Ownership and Regulatory Independence on Regulatory Outcomes in EU Telecommunications Geoff Edwards and Leonard Waverman London Business School 1

2 Overview Major changes in the structure of telecommunications industries across the globe in the last twenty years Liberalisation Privatisation New regulatory regimes independent regulators Where governments retain ownership stakes in incumbent firms, is the legal separation of regulatory authorities from ministries sufficient for regulation to be truly independent? If independent regulation is critical for encouraging entry and investment, what can governments do to credibly commit not to interfere ( tie their own hands ) 2

3 Overview We study interconnect rates paid by entrants to incumbent Public Telecommunications Operators (PTOs) in the EU Findings: Public ownership of the PTO biases regulatory outcomes in favour of the PTO, even when regulators are legally separate from ministries Formal safeguards of regulatory independence can mitigate this effect 3

4 Country Summaries Country PTO NRA Code First Year of NRA Operation 1 Year of Liberalization Austria Telekom Austria RTR Belgium Belgacom BIPT Denmark Tele Danmark (TDC) NTA Finland Sonera 2 FICORA France France Telecom ART Germany Deutsche Telekom Reg TP Greece Greek Telecom Organization (OTE) EETT Ireland Eircom ComReg Italy Telecom Italia AGC Luxembourg P&T Luxembourg (EPT) ILR The Netherlands KPN OPTA Portugal Portugal Telecom (PT) ANACOM Spain Telefonica de Espana S.A. CMT Sweden Telia PTS United Kingdom British Telecom (BT) OFCOM

5 Data Anomaly Interconnect rates in EU telecommunications are supposed to be costoriented (interconnection directive) But costs alone (proxied here by density and urbanization) cannot explain all the variation Population/Square Km Urban Population (%) So what else is going on? Local Interconnect Rate (Eurocents/Minute) Density Urbanization 5

6 Data Anomaly (continued) Regulatory outcomes also vary substantially over time within countries Costs alone are also insufficient to explain this variation So what else matters? A B DK FIN F D EL IRL I L NL P E S UK C o unt ry 6

7 Public Ownership and Regulatory Independence Regulatory independence is especially threatened when the government is both the regulator and the (whole or part) owner of the regulated firm Expect greater public ownership of the incumbent PTO will lead to higher interconnect rates Expect greater regulatory independence from the government will mitigate this effect 7

8 What is Regulatory Independence? Two aspects to independence from the executive branch of government Formal (observable in institutional features) Informal (observable?) Formal independence: the institutions that separate regulators (NRAs) from the political functions of the executive branch of government, e.g. Multi-member NRAs Legislative involvement in NRA member appointments Fixed terms for NRA members and limited grounds for removal Independent funding of NRAs Reporting requirements for NRAs Adequate resources for NRAs Informal independence: a function of centuries of cultural norms and political traditions, and individual personalities Observable? Perhaps use subjective opinions (endogenous with regulatory outcomes?) 8

9 Formal v Informal Independence Formal and informal are likely to be negatively correlated Countries recognizing a weakness in their informal environment compensate with stricter formal rules promoting independence e.g. Italy is thought to have a weak informal environment, but scores the highest on our EURI-I measure e.g. UK scores only moderately on EURI-I measure, but is widely regarded as having the most independent regulatory system The informal environment is unobserved in our study estimates of the effect of formal independence will be positively biased (towards zero) we use, alternatively, instrumental variables and country fixed effects to control for suspected endogeneity in the EURI-I Index 9

10 Prior Measures of Regulatory Independence Study Independent Variable Measure Dataset: Cross-Section or Panel Gutierrez and Berg (2000) Regulatory Independence Dummy Panel (19 Latin American countries in three years) Bortolotti, D Souza, Fantini and Megginson (2001) Regulatory Independence Dummy (for separate regulator) Panel (25 countries: ) Wallsten (2001) Regulatory Independence Dummy (for separate regulator) Panel (30 African and Latin American countries: ) Wallsten (2002) Regulatory Independence Dummy (if agency claims independence) Panel (197 countries: ) Fink, Mattoo and Rathindran (2002) Regulatory Independence Dummy (for separate regulator) Panel (86 developing countries: ) Ros (2003) Regulatory Independence Dummy (for separate regulator) Panel (20 Latin American countries: ) 10

11 Prior Measures of Regulatory Independence Study Independent Variable Measure Dataset: Cross-Section or Panel Gual and Trillas (2003) Regulatory Independence Index (nine elements including responsibility for three policy areas) Cross-section (37 countries in 1998) Jones Day (2002 and 2004) Regulatory Independence Index (six criteria with arbitrary weights) Cross-section (9 and 10 EU countries in 2002 and 2004) Bauer (2003) Regulatory Independence Index (eight criteria including responsibility for three policy areas) Cross-section (15 EU countries in 2000) Gutierrez (2003a and 2003b) Regulatory Governance Quality Index (six elements of regulatory governance quality) Panel (22 Latin and Caribbean countries: ) 11

12 Measuring Regulatory Independence Formal Elements: The EURI-I Index 1. Does the NRA have single or multisector jurisdiction (multi-sector)? 2. Is the NRA a single or multimember body (multi-member)? 3. Is NRA funding mainly through government appropriations, or industry fees and consumer levies (funding)? 4. Does the NRA report only to the executive, or does it also have a responsibility to report to the legislature (reporting)? 5. Does the NRA have adequate powers over interconnection issues (interconnect powers)? 6. Does the NRA share the regulatory role with the executive or have exclusive powers (shared roles)? 7. Is the legislature involved in NRA member appointments (legislative appointment)? 8. Are NRA members appointed for fixed terms (fixed terms)? 9. Are NRA member terms renewable (renewable terms)? 10. Are NRA staff numbers adequate (staff)? 11. Is the NRA s regulatory budget adequate (budget)? 12. Has the NRA been in existence for at least two years (experience)? 12

13 Measuring Regulatory Independence Formal Elements: The EURI-I Index EURI-I Index 12 elements, each coded on a 0-1 scale Construct an equally weighted sum of these A B DK FIN F D EL IRL I L NL P E S UK Country 13

14 Validity of the EURI-I Index The EURI-I Index includes only elements that have been identified in prior literature as bearing on regulatory independence from government exhibit variation across the EU member states and over time are capable of measurement over the full study period positive correlation with similarly constructed measures of formal independence elements in the EU Gual and Trillas (2003) ECTA Regulatory Scorecard: Jones Day (2004) negative correlation with measures of the quality of the informal environment for investment the La Porta et. al. index of legal origin World Bank indices of regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption 14

15 Measuring Regulatory Independence The EURI-I Index in 1998 Portugal i/c rate in 1998 is an outlier Austria and Luxembourg: lowest EURI-I highest i/c rates The UK: lowest i/c rate only a moderate EURI-I score Italy: Very high EURI-I Compensating? EURI-I Index A B DK FIN F D EL IRL I L NL P E S UK Country EURI-I Interconnect Rate EURI-I Average Interconnect Rate 15

16 Measuring Regulatory Independence The EURI-I Index in 2003 Belgium and Finland little effort to improve independence smallest reductions in i/c rates (other than UK) Convergence in i/c rates (benchmarking?) But rank order of countries remains similar UK still lowest A, FIN, L, P still high EURI-I Index A B DK FIN F D EL IRL I L NL P E S UK Country EURI-I Interconnect Rate EURI-I Average Interconnect Rate 16

17 Empirical Method Base Model Interconnect Rate i,t = + β 1 Urbanization i + β 2 Public i,t + β 3 EURI-I i,t + γ t Year t + ε i,t Dependent variable: local interconnect rates Urbanization controls for network costs Public is the share of the incumbent PTO owned by the government EURI-I is our index of regulatory independence We include year dummies to control for EU-wide time trends All reported standard errors are robust to the presence of heteroskedasticity The linear model outperforms alternative non-linear specifications We control for possible endogeneity of EURI-I using IV and panel data methods 17

18 Summary Statistics Variable Observations Mean Standard Deviation Minimum Maximum Interconnect Rate Density Urbanization Public Public Dummy EURI-I Lines (000,000) Digitalization Liberalization

19 Results (Pooling the Data) Public ownership is associated with higher interconnect rates Regulatory independence reduces interconnect rates Regulatory independence matters more, the greater the government s ownership share in the PTO (indeed, under full privatisation, independence does not matter at all) At the mean of EURI-I, full public ownership returns an i/c rate cents higher than full privatisation; an additional EURI-I element reduces this advantage by cents (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Base Regression Interaction with Public Interaction with Public Dummy Lines (000,000) Digitalization Liberalization Urbanization *** * ** ** * (0.646) (0.732) (0.683) (0.840) (0.783) (0.721) Public 0.515*** 1.757*** 1.816*** 1.651*** 1.568*** (0.168) (0.531) (0.594) (0.543) (0.576) Public Dummy 1.324*** (0.328) EURI-I *** (0.026) (0.036) (0.027) (0.043) (0.036) (0.039) Interaction with ** ** * * Public (0.086) (0.098) (0.091) (0.092) Interaction with *** Public Dummy (0.052) Lines (000,000) ** (0.004) Digital Lines (%) ** (0.010) Liberalization (0.010) Constant 2.858*** 1.657** 1.880*** 2.214* 4.567*** 1.840** (0.538) (0.756) (0.651) (1.197) (1.713) (0.810) Year Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Country Fixed Effects No No No No No No Observations Adjusted R-squared

20 Factor Analysis Are some formal elements more important than others? Which of the elements in the EURI-I Index are driving our results? Factor analysis reveals subsets of elements (shaded in grey) which are most associated with different underlying (unobserved) factors Each underlying factor will contribute to a different extent to explaining the overall variance in the data It is standard to focus on a small number of factors whose combined contributions explain most of the variance interconnect powers shared roles We identify three factors and substitute these for the EURI-I index Element F1 F2 F3 Uniqueness multi-sector multi-member funding reporting legislative appointment fixed terms renewable terms staff budget experience

21 Regressions with Three Factors (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Without Country Fixed Effects With Country Fixed Effects Similar results to regressions using the EURI-I index Factors 1 and 2 explain between country relationship between i/c rates and formal independence Factor 3 explains within country relationship between i/c rates and formal independence Interaction effects are significant, even with country fixed effects Base Regression Interactions with Public Interactions with Public Dummy Base Regression Interactions with Public Interactions with Public Dummy Urbanization ** ** ** (0.622) (0.682) (0.647) Public 0.510*** 0.460*** (0.168) (0.159) (1.172) (1.087) Public Dummy 0.290** (0.120) (0.342) F *** (0.046) (0.057) (0.045) (0.578) F ** (0.045) (0.067) (0.053) (0.414) F ** (0.062) (0.241) (0.213) (0.260) F1*Public *** (0.123) F2*Public *** (0.123) F3*Public (0.384) F1*Public Dummy *** (0.068) F2*Public Dummy ** (0.107) F3*Public Dummy ** (0.215) Constant 2.187*** 2.184*** 1.871*** (0.457) (0.491) (0.487) (1.643) (1.075) (0.479) Year Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Country Fixed Effects No No No Yes Yes Yes Observations Adjusted R-squared

22 Summary of Results Public ownership is associated with higher interconnect rates Formal institutional features promoting regulatory independence mitigate this effect (but appear to have little effect when the incumbent PTO is fully privatised) Our results are robust to numerous additional regressors, endogeneity concerns, outliers and alternative model specifications Indeed, controlling for endogeneity provides stronger results, consistent with a proposition that countries lacking strong informal environments compensate with stronger formal mechanisms to ensure the independence of regulatory authorities from government influence 22

23 Contributions to the Literature We have provided a more detailed examination of the formal institutional elements of regulatory independence than has previously been attempted, inside or outside the EU In the process, we have developed a new database of regulatory institutions (the EURI Database), available at We hope this database will prove useful in future research on the effects of the institutional environment of regulation on the structure and performance of the EU telecommunications industry 23

24 Contributions to the Literature Our research fills a missing link in the new comparative economics: cross-country examinations of governance institutions and economic performance Institutional Environment Scope for Executive Discretion (Direct Expropriation or Influence over Regulatory Agencies) Entry and Investment Decisions National Economic Performance Direct relationship Indirect relationship 24

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