Australian Population & Migration Research Centre Policy Brief

Transcription

1 - 1 - Australian Population & Migration Research Centre Policy Brief National Growth Areas Alliance AUGUST, 2013 POPULATION DYNAMICS IN OUTER SUBURBS, By Graeme Hugo and Kevin Harris Outer suburbs of Australian capital cities absorb more than double the proportion of national population growth compared with their share of the national population. These areas have disproportionately large numbers of immigrants and young families. The dynamics of rapid population change in those areas has major implications for infrastructure and service provision as well as the wellbeing of residents in these areas. INTRODUCTION The period was one of unprecedented population growth in Australia the population increased by 1.89 million or 9.2 percent compared with 1.18 million (6.1 percent) between (ABS, 2013, 10). This growth brought with it a number of challenges and opportunities for the nation. However, the growth is not randomly distributed across Australia. One of the main types of areas which have experienced this growth are the outer metropolitan areas of Australia s mainland capital cities. This report summarises some major dimensions of recent population dynamics in the local government areas located in these zones in Australian capitals which are part of the National Growth Areas Alliance. Many of these LGAs contain greenfield areas which are being opened up for new housing. However they also include suburbs developed in the early postwar decades in which the initial settlers are dying or moving to aged care accommodation so that there are substantial opportunities for redevelopment and increasing population density. Hence they are expecting growth from both peripheral, and infill, development. Understanding the dynamics of population change at the local government area level is absolutely fundamental to good governance and wellbeing of populations because: Population changes at a local government level can vary significantly from those at national or state levels so that relative levels of demand and need for particular services can vary. Moreover while population change at national and state levels is always slow and incremental, change can be more volatile at a local level. Hence increases in demand for infrastructure and services can be very rapid at the local level. Many population changes can be anticipated so knowing about them facilitates the timely, equitable and efficient provision of services. There is scope to identify population developments which are seen as being against the interests of the community and initiate steps to ameliorate or change them. It is important not only to profile an LGA population at any point in time but identify trends, both current and emerging in the population as a basis for anticipating change. Box 1: The National Growth Areas Alliance (NGAA) Local Government Areas New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia South Australia Blacktown, Camden, Campbelltown, Liverpool, Penrith Casey, Cardinia, Wyndham, Melton, Hume and Whittlesea Moreton Bay, Logan, Ipswich Gosnells, Wanneroo, Swan, Cockburn, Mandurah, Serpentine -Jarrahdale, Kwinana, Armadale, Rockingham Playford, Mount Barker This brief is derived from a report completed by the APMRC for the National Growth Areas Alliance, June 2013.

2 - 2 - POPULATION GROWTH In 2006 the NGAA council areas contained 14.7 percent of Australia s total population, however over the period they absorbed 30.4 percent of the nation s population growth. By 2011 its share of the national population was 15.9 percent. The total NGAA population increased from 2.6 million in 2001 to 3.4 million in This represents an important mismatch because many allocations of resources are based on the census population rather than on growth. It is important to note that there is some variation between the NGAA council areas in their growth rates. Overall they grew at twice the rate (3.2 percent per annum) as the nation as a whole (1.6 percent per annum) over the period. While there were some areas which grew at below the national average growth rate, there were a number which grew at more than three times the national rate. DYNAMICS OF POPULATION CHANGE The population of local areas is shaped by three demographic processes: The excess of births over deaths (natural increase). The excess of immigrants from overseas over emigrants who leave the area and Australia (net international migration). The excess of inmigrants from elsewhere in Australia over outmigrants moving to other parts of Australia (net internal migration). Population growth in the Alliance LGAs is strongly shaped by all three of those processes: Because of the dominance of young families in these areas natural increase levels are high. In 2011 the Australian Total Fertility Rate was 1.87 children per woman but in the Alliance LGAs it was 15 percent higher on average although it varied between 1.89 and On average it was slightly above replacement level at Accordingly, between 2006 and 2011 the numbers of children aged 0-4 years increased by 23 percent while in Australia the comparable increase was 12.7 percent. Since the NGAA areas have offered greenfield areas available for housing development, several have experienced substantial net inmigration from other parts of Australia. Inmigration is greater than outmigration in most LGAs and the population of residents who had moved in the last five years is higher than the nation as a whole. Six of the 25 LGAs had more people moving out than in reflecting the dominance of established suburbs where the original householders are aging in place and their children moving out. International migration is a key element in the growth of several of the Alliance LGAs. Almost one in five of all migrants in Australia live in the Alliance LGAs. Some 30.7 percent of their total population are migrants compared with 26.1 percent nationally. However, representation varies between the LGAs, with three having more than 40 percent of their residents being overseas born. They are key immigrant reception areas. AGE STRUCTURE The age composition of areas is fundamental to planning services since demand for all services is influenced by age. It is crucial to recognise that age groups do not all grow at the same rate or at the same rate as the total population. Hence demand for particular services can change rapidly even though there may be little change in the total population size. Figure 1 overlays the age structure of the Alliance LGAs at the 2006 and 2011 Censuses. It indicates that growth occurred between the censuses in all age groups, however it was particularly marked in the child and young adult groups reflecting the high level of migration into the LGAs. While there were variations between LGAs, the dominant feature is the rapid growth of the younger population. Almost one in five Australian children aged 0-4 in 2011 live in the Alliance LGAs indeed this is the case for all dependent age children and has major implications for the growth in demand for child care, education and other services. It will be noted in Box 2 that the 65+ population are underrepresented in the region as a whole with 11.5 percent of the nation s older people living in those areas. Nevertheless, there are some LGAs where there is an overrepresentation of older persons. Moreover there was a growth of the 65+ in all of the LGAs. It needs to be noted that the 65+ can face particular challenges in these areas because they generally have relatively low population density. This means that accessibility to public transport and to services is more difficult than it is in middle and inner suburbs. This can present challenges to older people who do not have access to a motor vehicle.

3 - 3 - Two evolving elements associated with the growth of the aged population in NGAA LGAs should be especially noted: Figure 1 shows that there has been especially rapid growth of the years early baby boomers age group. This presages an impending rapid expansion of the 65+ population as these residents age in place. There is an increasing pattern for aged care institutions to locate in NGAA LGAs to take advantage of availability of greenfield sites and cheaper land costs. The number of such institutions in the LGAs increased from 252 in 2006 to 273 in Figure 1: Alliance LGAs: Age-Sex Distribution, 2006 and 2011 Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses Age Males 2006 (shaded) and Number Box 2: Alliance LGAs as a Percent of Australia as a Whole Females Total population 15.9 Population growth Household Growth All migrants 19.0 Recent migrants 17.5 Persons aged Persons aged less than Single parent families 18.3 Internal migrants 16.5 Persons aged Figure 2 overlays the age structure of the Alliance LGAs with that of Australia as a whole. It shows a clear pattern with age groups below age 45 being overrepresented and older groups underrepresented. Figure 2: Source: Age Males ETHNIC DIVERSITY Australia and Alliance LGAs: Age-Sex Distribution, 2011 ABS 2011 Census Australia (shaded) and Alliance LGAs Percent Females Australia has experienced a substantial increase in ethnic diversity over recent decades and this process has been especially marked in the Alliance LGAs. Over the period there was a net migration gain of 233,520 in these areas (an excess of immigrants and emigrants) more than two times greater than over the period. The net gain varied between individual LGAs but 8 had net gain in excess of 11,000. Box 3 shows the largest birthplace groups in the Alliance LGAs. It is notable that China is underrepresented compared with the rest of Australia and India overrepresented. Only 3 Asian countries were in the largest 10 in 2001 but 5 in 2011, and 18 of the 25 NGAA areas have a higher representation of CALD groups than the nation as a whole. Nevertheless, these areas have an overrepresentation of immigrants from Mainly English Speaking countries of origin in the Alliance LGAs compared with the nation as a whole. More than one in five residents (21.8 percent) are born in MES countries compared with 9.4 percent nationally. It was especially marked in some areas of Western Australia where a quarter of residents are immigrants from MES countries. Second generation immigrants are also important in the Alliance LGAs with 22.4 percent of the total population being Australia-born with a father and/or mother being

4 - 4 - overseas-born. Accordingly 51.5 percent of the total population of the Alliance LGAs are a first or second generation migrant compared with 44.9 percent for all of Australia. Box 3: Largest Immigrant Groups in Alliance LGAs, 2011 United Kingdom 214,061 Iraq 18,892 New Zealand 113,270 Malaysia 14,911 India 68,573 Germany Philippines 56,916 Lebanon South Africa 28,083 Netherlands Italy 27,537 Malta Fiji 24,328 Croatia Vietnam 22,666 Samoa Sri Lanka 21,862 Turkey China 21,233 The mix of visa categories among immigrants settling in an area can have an important impact on demand for services. Box 4 shows the mix of visa categories of permanent migrants arriving in Australia between 2006 and 2011 and settling in the Alliance LGAs. This shows an overall overrepresentation with one in five permanent migrants arriving in Australia over the period settling in the Alliance LGAs. Especially significant, however, is that 28.7 percent of all humanitarian arrivals settled in Alliance LGAs. This is particularly important because they are heavily dependent on assistance in their early years of settlement in Australia. Again, there are important variations between Alliance LGAs especially in relation to humanitarian migrant settlement. Box 4: Visa Categories of Settler Arrivals in Alliance LGAs Number Percent of Australian Total Family 109, Skilled 204, Humanitarian 45, Total 359, While recent immigrant settlement in Alliance LGAs is an important issue, the overseas born, especially those of CALD origin, are an increasingly important part of the 65+ population. In percent of Australia s CALD population aged 65+ lived in the Alliance LGAs. The increased diversity in the older population in these areas has important implications for service provision. Another important part of the diversity in the Alliance areas is the strong presence of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Some 2.1 percent of the Alliance area population in 2011 was of Aboriginal-Torres Strait Islander origin, slightly below the 2.7 percent nationally but above average for metropolitan areas. However 9 LGAs have above the national representation and more than 3 percent of their population of this origin. Moreover, the group are growing rapidly. HOUSEHOLD AND FAMILY COMPOSITION Much of the demand for services provided by federal, state and local governments is created by households rather than individuals. Hence it is important to consider not only changes in the number of people when examining population dynamics but also households. This is especially important because households grow at different rates to the population according to changes in the propensity to form households. It is important in this context to note that the Alliance LGAs accounted for 42.4 percent of the national growth in the number of households again well above its share of the national population and indicating the increasing pressure of growth on resources and infrastructure in those areas. The population of net growth in households in Australia in which occurred in the Alliance LGAs, almost three times its share of the national population (261,418 households). There was variation between the LGAs but in only 2 of the 25 LGAs did households grow at a slower rate than nationally. These areas are bearing the brunt of the national increase in the demand for housing. These areas represent Australia s heartland being dominated by young families renting or purchasing their own homes as is evident in Box 5. The average size of households in the Alliance LGAs is percent larger than the national average. It is also important to recognise that there are some important differences in the composition of households in the Alliance LGAs. There is an overrepresentation of households made up of families with children. Some 38.6 percent of households are two parents and 13.2 percent single parent compared with 30.7 and 10.6

5 - 5 - respectively for the nation. This has crucial implications for service provision. Box 5: Households and Families Alliance Australia Growth in households , ,220 Percent of households privately renting Percent in non-private dwellings Average size of household Percent of households with two parents and children Percent of households with single parent and children Percent own house outright Percent with mortgage Median monthly mortgage $1850 $1800 Median weekly rent $295 $285 Housing affordability and availability is a substantial issue in Australia and pressures on housing are especially reported in the Alliance LGAs. Less than a quarter (24.5 percent) of households own their own home compared with 31 percent nationally. On the other hand, 43.7 percent have a mortgage compared with a third nationally. It will be noted that both rents and mortgages are slightly higher on average than in Australia as a whole although there is substantial variation within and between LGAs. One of the defining features of the Alliance LGAs is the dominance of workers in the population. Box 6 shows that workforce participation rates are higher than the national average. It is interesting that this is also the case for women despite the fact that a high proportion of females are in the family formation ages. There is variation however between LGAs with male participation rates falling as low as 64.1 percent and female 49.5 percent. However both total and youth employment levels are above the national average. Moreover unemployment levels were as high as 9.5 percent in one LGA while youth unemployment was 18.3 percent in that same area. Incomes are slightly above the national average due to the underrepresentation of the retired population but they are over 20 percent below the national average in one Alliance LGA. The dominance of blue and white collar middle Australia in these areas is evident in the fact that the proportion of the workforce in the Professional and Managerial occupation category is a quarter compared to over a third nationally. One of the real challenges in the Alliance areas relates to accessibility given that they are generally low density outer suburbs with less dense public transport networks than middle suburbs. The proportion of households with motor vehicles is not surprisingly above the national average. However few LGAs have below the national average with one having 12.5 percent of dwellings with no access to a motor vehicle. The dominance of the motor car in the journey to work is apparent. Box 6: Workforce Issues Alliance Australia Male participation rate Female participation rate Percent unemployed Youth unemployment Median personal income per week $598 $577 Percent in Professional/Managerial occupations Percent of dwellings with no motor vehicle Percent travel to work by car POPULATION TRENDS WITH POLICY IMPLICATIONS The population dynamics of Alliance LGAs present a number of challenges and opportunities: The LGAs are absorbing a disproportionately large share of national growth in both population and households twice their proportionate share on average but greater in several LGAs. They are absorbing a disproportionate share of growth in the dependent children and youth groups. While they have a lower share of the nation s rapidly growing aged population, it is growing faster in Alliance LGAs than in the nation as a whole. Alliance LGAs absorb a disproportionately large share of new immigrants settling in Australia this is especially marked for humanitarian migrants, almost 1 in 3 of whom settle in these LGAs. Since these groups have especially significant needs of support in the early years of settlement, this represents an important feature of several of the LGAs. Alliance LGAs are characterised by immigrant settlement of particular groups including those from

6 - 6 - Mainly English Speaking backgrounds (especially young families), Indian background, Fijian and Philippines-born. More than half of residents in these areas are a migrant or the child of a migrant. Alliance LGAs have a disproportionately large share of persons who moved within Australia during the period. This is an important part of the dynamics of these areas and creates challenges for infrastructure and service provision. There is a dominance of working families with mortgages in these areas. There is a disproportionate representation of couples and single parent families with children. Australian Population and Migration Research Centre School of Social Sciences Room G17, Ground Floor, Napier Building The University of Adelaide South Australia 5005 Telephone: Fax: