Window of opportunity?
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1 Window of opportunity? Transaksjonsdagen 216, Bergen 11 February 216 Carnegie Investment Bank
2 Significant oil price drop the last 18 months USD per barrel Oil price (Brent spot) Source: FactSet Carnegie Investment Bank 2
3 Oil and oil services a diminishing part of Oslo Stock Exchange USD per barrel 14 Oil price (Brent spot) OSEBX (indexed) Before oil price drop: 31 July % Oil and oil services (excl. Statoil) 37% Statoil Telenor 27% DNB 9% 1% Other 51% 8% Currently: 31 January 216 2% 11% DNB 9% Other Oil and oil services (excl. Statoil) Statoil Telenor Jan 214 Mar 214 May 214 Jul 214 Sep 214 Nov 214 Jan 215 Mar 215 May 215 Jul 215 Sep 215 Nov 215 Jan 216 Oil and oil services (excl. Statoil) has significantly underperformed the overall market and today constitutes only ~8% of the market cap on the Oslo Stock Exchange Source: FactSet Carnegie Investment Bank 3
4 Increased market volatility raises the bar for deal activity VIX VIX 3y average Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Source: FactSet Carnegie Investment Bank 4
5 Reduced deal activity in the Norwegian market Norwegian ECM volumes Norwegian high yield volumes USDbn % NOKbn Hydro / Vale 5 213* % Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Stamdata Norwegian M&A volumes Norwegian M&A volumes (excluding real estate) USDbn % 14 USDbn % Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters Carnegie Investment Bank 5
6 but there are opportunities in this market environment too Carnegie Investment Bank 6
7 M&A activity likely to surge on back of new reality with low oil price? M&A activity in the US All sectors M&A activity in US Oil & gas related Larger companies typically outperform smaller companies in troughs Cost synergies increase in downturns USDbn % Key sectors Health care Technology Oil & gas USDbn Sample deals. Large foreign cash positions at US multinationals M&A activity in Norway All sectors M&A activity in Norway Oil & gas related As reality hits and the oil price stabilizes M&A activity should flourish Hypothesis: Norwegian market lags the international market? USDbn % Key sectors Real estate USDbn Sample deals Source: Thomson Reuters Carnegie Investment Bank 7
8 Record-high cash positions will facilitate M&A activity globally Which factor do you think will most drive deal activity in 216? Source: KPMG 216 M&A outlook survey among US executives 51% Large cash reserves/commitments 36% Availability of credit on favorable terms 32% Improved consumer confidence 25% Opportunities in emerging markets 17% Improving equity markets Carnegie Investment Bank 8
9 Take advantage of the downturn Improved investment economics for future projects Renegotiate contracts Share of unapproved Statoil projects profitable at oil price below USD 5/barrel % % 8-44% 45 Breakeven price for selected Statoil projects -41% -19% % 3 Before Castberg Now Before Now Johan Sverdrup Before Now Projects yet to be approved Before Now All approved projects Rightsizing of organization Focus on innovation and smart solutions 1. Downturns create opportunities for innovative people and companies 2. Previous downturns have led to the introduction of cheaper and smarter solutions (e.g. oil crisis in the 8s, dot-com bubble) 3. New cost-saving technologies and solutions are in particular demand 4. Those with available capital will face investment opportunities that allow them to come out of the downturn in an improved competitive position Carnegie Investment Bank 9
10 Many oil service companies are in need of restructuring Reasons for restructuring Running out of liquidity Covenant breach(es) Liquidity Gearing Equity Unable to service debt: Interest payments Instalments Upcoming maturities Sample restructuring tools Liquidity injection Equity issue (guaranteed vs. non-guaranteed) Subordinated loan (shareholders) Covenants Waive past breaches/ future tests Set new levels to cater for a change in circumstances Remove entirely Interest payments Reduce Defer Instalments/redemptions Payment holiday(s) Extend maturity Carnegie Investment Bank 1
11 Margin (bps) and refinancing will be expensive Outstanding bonds by maturity date Bond margins NOKbn OSV bonds PE bonds itraxx Xover RIG bonds Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Drilling Floatels FPSO Supply Subsea Seismic Based on a basket of bonds including: FAR, SOLSTA, DOF, DOFSUB, BWO, FOE, NADL, PRS, SDRL, HOSINV, NCG, WEIFA Source: Bloomberg Carnegie Investment Bank 11
12 Key stakeholders in the restructuring process 1 Equity owners 4 Banks Often secured creditors Bilateral vs syndicated facilities Large capacity and experience in dealing with heavy workload Access to monthly information from company Important not to underestimate internal administrative process, e.g. credit committee Willingness to supply additional liquidity? Guarantee for equity issues Subscribe to additional capital Provide subordinated loan Advisors Legal, financial, other Bondholders Often fragmented holdings Workload is very lumpy, i.e. many cases at once Publicly traded paper requires a nondisclosure agreement to ensure that investor s are treated equally NT as trustee: ruled by 2/3 majority 3 The company Needs breathing space to focus on operational side of the business Would like to see a robust solution to get through the cycle Avoid «kicking the can down the road» Opportunity to position itself for an eventual market upturn Can act for all the different stakeholders Coordinate efforts on all sides Act to reduce information asymmetries between the parties 2 Carnegie Investment Bank 12
13 EMGS restructuring case study (1/2) High level project timeline Bondholders Prep. of key documents: Bondholder presentation, summons letter, bondholder undertaking, financial model Undertaking signed Dialogue with bondholders Deal announced Bondholders meeting Bond buy-back Settlement of bond buy-back Mandate signed October November December Shareholders Prep. of key documents: Prospectus, underwriting agreement Underwriting signed Deal announced EGM Payment date Process towards underwriters Subscription period Share price development (before rights issue) Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct-15 9-Nov Nov-15 7-Dec-15 EMGS OBX - rebased Source: FactSet Carnegie Investment Bank 13
14 EMGS restructuring case study (2/2) Share price development (after rights issue) Dec Dec Dec-15 5-Jan Jan Jan Jan-16 2-Feb-16 Source: FactSet 16 Dec: Rights issue completed at NOK.25 EMGS Financial impact OBX - rebased Maturity and face value of bond (USDm) Annual bond interest expense (USDm) Cash balance (USDm) 41 USD (9)m Debt balance reduced by USD 9m +36 mths. Debt maturity extended by 36 months 32 3 USD (.7)m Annual interest expense reduced by USD.7m USD 25m Total cash balance increased by USD 25m Sep-15 Post buy-back 3-Sep-15 Post buy-back Carnegie Investment Bank 14
15 Selected advice for the restructuring process Involve key parties early and engage all stakeholders Eliminate information asymmetries Ensure balanced contribution from all involved parties Develop a robust solution don t kick the can down the road Raise enough capital don t plan for a best-case scenario! Choose an independent advisor without vested interests /conflicts Today s weakest balance sheet is tomorrow s strongest restructurings can create better, more sustainable companies Carnegie Investment Bank 15
16 Carnegie contact details Oslo Norway Stockholm Sweden Gothenburg Sweden Copenhagen Denmark Helsinki Finland London United Kingdom New York United States Carnegie AS Grundingen 2, Aker Brygge NO-16 Oslo NORWAY Carnegie Investment Bank AB Regeringsgatan 56 SE Stockholm SWEDEN Carnegie Investment Bank AB Sankt Eriksgatan 6 SE Göteborg SWEDEN Carnegie Investment Bank AB Danish Branch Overgaden neden Vandet 9b DE-1414 København K DENMARK Carnegie Investment Bank AB Finland Branch Eteläesplanadi 12 FI-13 Helsinki FINLAND Carnegie Investment Bank AB UK Branch Finwell House, 26 Finsbury Sq. London EC2A 1DS UNITED KINGDOM Carnegie, Inc. 2 West 55th Street New York NY 119 USA Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Carnegie Investment Bank is a leading independent investment bank with a Nordic focus Our goal is to be the leading independent investment bank in the Nordic region. Our business is based on broad and detailed knowledge of the Nordic markets and strong international reach through our offices in New York and London Independent We are the leading independent investment bank in the Nordic region. This means we are free to conduct independent analysis and provide independent advice, free from ownership spheres and other interests, always with a focus on the client s best interests Leading To remain profitable over the long term, in an industry with intense international competition, it is essential to have a strong market position and to always deliver top-class products and services Nordic We have a strong local presence with profound understanding and knowledge of Nordic markets & companies combined with long-term relationships with international investors Carnegie Investment Bank 16
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