Frank Lonegro Vice President Mechanical CSX Transportation 1

Transcription

1 Frank Lonegro Vice President Mechanical CSX Transportation 1

2 Agenda PTC Overview Why is PTC So Challenging? Project Status Extension Status

3 PTC Overview

4 PTC is not a new concept Railroads have been developing PTC technologies for over 20 years 1980 s Advanced Train Control System (ATCS) Advanced Railway Electronics System (ARES) 1990 s Communications Based Train Management (CBTM) Electronic Train Management System (ETMS) Systems were expensive and no business case existed for nationwide deployment 4

5 Two accidents accelerated PTC legislation Graniteville, SC January 2005 Norfolk Southern crew passes through a main line switch left in the wrong position and collides with another train Chatsworth, CA September 2008 Metrolink commuter train passes a red signal and collides with a Union Pacific freight train 5

6 Regulatory Timeline September 12, 2008 Metrolink Accident - October 16, RSIA becomes law July 21, FRA issues Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) - January 15, Final Rule issued July 28, AAR appeals certain aspects of Final Rule - September 27, FRA amends criteria to remove a line from PTC scope 6

7 Regulatory Timeline March 2, FRA and AAR reach settlement agreement - April 22, AAR files Rulemaking Petition - August 24, FRA issues NPRM to base PTC on projected 2015 traffic - May 14, FRA amends Rule to base PTC on projected 2015 traffic - December 11, FRA issues NPRM addressing de minimis exceptions, yard operations, and en route failures - January 28, FRA clarifies the December 2012 NPRM - May 24, 2013 RSAC meeting on December 2012 NPRM - December, 2013 Estimated receipt of Final Rule 7

8 PTC legislation requires specific functionality Prevent overspeed derailments Prevent train to train collisions Protect track workers Prevent movement through misaligned switches 8 PTC gauges upcoming signals, authorities, switches, operating conditions, locomotive position & speed PTC designed to warn engineer of need for action If the engineer fails to act, PTC system will engage locomotive brakes and bring train to full stop If railroaders do their jobs correctly, PTC should never engage the brakes

9 PTC System Overview Track Database Speed Restrictions Work Zones Train Consist Movement Authorities Speed Restrictions Switches Work Zones Signals Initialization Braking Curve Warning Curve Predictive Braking Switch Position 9

10 Why is PTC so Challenging?

11 Why is PTC so challenging? 11 REGULATORY Compressed timeline Regulatory Uncertainty SUPPLIER Heavy reliance on suppliers Software still in development TECHNICAL Interoperability Unproven technology Track database mapping and ongoing maintenance OPERATIONAL Locomotive fleet age and mix Wayside plant age and mix Equipping switches in un-signaled territories Scale of changes and increase in workload Track time requirements Impacts to operations, customer relationships and service FINANCIAL Huge capital requirements

12 Types of Risk Inherent in the PTC Project 1 Execution Risk 12 2 Supplier Risk 3 Regulatory Risk 4 Technical Risk 5 Operational Risk 6 Resource Risk 7 Financial Risk Impact (present to 5 years) High Significant Moderate Minor Limited Remote Unlikely 7 6 Likely Highly Likely Probability (present to 5 years) High execution risk represents cumulative impact of categorical risks Almost Certain

13 PTC legislation requires industry interoperability Class I Railroads Passenger Railroads Interoperability requirement applies to Class I and passenger railroads Class Is agreed to develop standard platform PTC must be able to recognize and stop foreign locomotives Some passenger roads using AMTRAK ACSES system 13

14 14 The national fleet has over 20 classes of locomotives...

15 ... and each class has a different configuration PTC Display PTC components in electrical cabinets Antenna Bar 15 Locomotive installs must be tailored to individual classes of power

16 Wayside installs must be tailored to existing plant... 16

17 17... which varies from location to location...

18 18... including some very old equipment

19 Equipping dark territories presents special challenges Switches must be equipped with: Switch position monitors Wayside interface units Communications And a power source Infrastructure availability varies by territory Some territories require the installation of: Electricity Communications 19

20 PTC technology is still in development Office system requirements are still being developed Final software not yet delivered Onboard expected by year s end Back Office expected by end of 2014 Final wayside interface units have not been received from suppliers Significant changes are required to mission critical railroad dispatching systems 20

21 Track database creation and maintenance Fli-Map Flight Parameters Altitude: 320 feet Laser Swath: 300 feet Speed: 35 mph Data Collected GPS coordinates Video, fwd & down Digital stills, fwd & down Digital line scan data Other Methods Used Hi Rail Handheld Devices John Chance Land Surveys, Inc. Track DB must reflect changes Annual Track Maintenance Capacity Improvements Operating Changes Survey and Mapping, Inc 21

22 Railroad investment in PTC will exceed $10B 18,100 Locomotives 12,300 Locations Requiring Signal Replacement 37,500 Switches (Non-signaled Territory) Software Development, GIS enhancement, Systems Integration, Communications, etc Each railroad must decide how to mitigate PTC financial impact 22

23 FRA placed the cost benefit ratio for PTC at 22:1 PTC will create a safer railroad by preventing some accidents PTC will not prevent: Track failure-related accidents Equipment failure-related accidents Nor will it prevent all human failure accidents Less than 2% of all railroad accidents will be prevented by PTC FRA recognizes that the likelihood of business benefits is uncertain and that the cost-to-benefit comparison of this rule, excluding any business benefits, is not favorable PTC Regulatory Impact Analysis PTC mandate is coincident with record levels of railroad safety 23

24 PTC will impact operations During PTC installation and implementation Locomotive availability Wayside track time requirements Signal curfews Dispatch system stability PTC in Operation Impacts to service Component failures Regulatory restrictions Alerts and enforcements Rules and discipline Commuter and Short Line relations Interchange power agreements Long term governance across the industry 24

25 PTC will impact customer relationships and service Each railroad must determine how PTC impacts: Service to customers Rates Start up costs Relationship with short line operators 25 Traffic changes will impact the PTC footprint, for example: New PIH business on a non-ptc route Additional PIH volume on a de minimis route that moves the aggregate over the regulatory threshold Additional tonnage on a line that moves it above the regulatory threshold

26 Regulatory uncertainty remains... Awaiting final ruling on: Unequipped yard locomotives in PTC territory De minimis exception PTC enroute failures NTSB pressing for faster implementation FCC waiver required for 220 MHz radio towers Tower height waiver needed for efficient use of spectrum New environmental regulations may slow progress 26

27 Project Status

28 Over 30% of locomotives partially installed but less than 1% fully equipped Locomotive Installations 18,117 Many roads using two-touch installations: Touch One: Provision cables, brackets, wiring, antennae and test 5,926 Touch Two: Install components and test 146 Target Partial Install Full Install Locomotives As of 12/31/12 28

29 Survey largely completed but less than 10% translated to files GIS Mapping, Processing and File Creation 97,102 Multi-step process Survey (multiple methods) Process raw data Create SubDiv file 80,009 41,277 9,432 SubDiv file Downloaded to locomotive computer Describes track parameters to PTC system Target Surveyed Processed File Track Miles As of 12/31/12 29

30 40% of signal replacement work complete Signal Replacement 12,303 Signal Obsolescence Replacement of signal systems to facilitate PTC 4,969 Upgrade relay based systems with integrated circuits Design constrained Operationally intrusive Target Completed Locations As of 12/31/12 30

31 Only 28% of wayside interface units installed Wayside Interface Unit Installations 37,512 Wayside Interface Units communicate signal and switch status to the locomotive and back office Target 10,664 Installed Number of WIUs As of 12/31/12 Programmed for specific locations Many of these units will require a second touch to load PTC software 31

32 Less than 10% of 220 MHz base stations and wayside communications complete 220 MHz Base Station Radios 4, Leveraging existing base stations and installing new ones Target Towers Installed Wayside Communications 33,684 Provide 220 MHz communications at signals, switches and control points As of 12/31/12 32 Target Locations 2,210 Installed

33 Despite good faith efforts... extension is required The industry has invested significant capital and resources to make PTC a reality Over $2.8B spent to date More than 5,000 people working on PTC including over 2,000 new hires Despite these efforts, the facts tell us that PTC will not be completed by 2015 Final software delivery likely in late 2014 Testing and FRA certification still required after delivery Wayside installation will likely extend to 2018 Safe, methodical cutover by subdivision will take several years In early 2012, the industry told FRA that 2015 is not achievable 33

34 Extension Status

35 Industry Status Papers (Jan 2012) AAR Industry Status Paper: PTC Implementation: The Railroad Industry Cannot Install PTC on the Entire Nationwide Network by the 2015 Deadline American Public Transportation Association (APTA) report entitled Commuter/Passenger Railroad Response to PTC Implementation Agreed with AAR Status Paper, APTA and cited additional issues: lack of federal funding, inability to acquire 220 MHz spectrum, reliance on freight railroad s PTC implementations, and PTC s drain of capital from other safety critical infrastructure improvements 35

36 PTC Extension in Legislation (Apr-June 2012) House of Representatives Bill 5 year PTC extension proposal Senate Bill Conditional 3 year extension in one year increments Sens. Feinstein and Boxer (D-CA) opposed to extension more than 3 years 36 House and Senate s final compromise bill did not include a rail title

37 What s happened since... FRA Report to Congress Most roads will not complete by recommendations to Congress AMTRAK Office of Inspector General Report AMTRAK has made progress, but challenges remain GAO investigates PTC benefits NTSB Hearings UP Goodwell, OK Accident Positive Train Control: Is It On Track? AAR updates PTC Status Paper 37

38 Closing Thoughts Great progress has been made... much work remains Commitment of industry is evident Industry collaboration is at record levels Supplier capabilities and performance are critical Regulatory support, cooperation and resources required Long term preparation for operational PTC is necessary 38

39 Questions?