Opportunities in Asia

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1 Opportunities in Asia Karin Finkelston IFC Vice President, Asia Pacific Dublin June 19, 1

2 Asia Steady with Solid Long-Term Opportunities Asia is a major focus area for IFC with plans to invest over $5 bn in over 3 countries in the region Asia continues to show strong long-term potential Large domestic sectors present significant investment opportunities particularly infrastructure, housing, financial markets, manufacturing and agribusiness. Affected by Eurozone situation and the US slowdown, but comparatively insulated

3 East Asia Solid Fundamentals & Healthy Growth Rates Generally Positive Outlook: East Asia and Pacific was one of the few regions to avoid a contraction in 9 Inflation remains below developing economies average Most large countries are seeing external and current account surpluses Significant international reserves in most large countries However, greater openness of economies is doubled edged- exposure to global slowdown Real GDP Growth in East Asia and Pacific (%) Real GDP Growth in East Asia and Pacific (%) 11 1 Developing Countries East Asia & Pacific World Pacific Islands Source: World Bank (DECPG) and IMF Source: World Bank (DECPG) and IMF 3

4 South Asia - High inflation and Currency Depreciation Key Risks GDP growth in South Asia is slowing but expected to remain relatively healthy High inflation led by commodity prices and capacity constraints in the region; exchange rate weakness is further exerting pressure on domestic prices Relatively less openness of economies insulates somewhat against global turbulence 1 1 Real GDP Growth in South Asia (%) Maldives India Sri Lanka Nepal Bangladesh Bhutan Inflation in South Asia (%) Bhutan Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Maldives India Source: World Bank (DECPG) and IMF Source: IMF

5 Strategic Themes IFC Asia Strategy Development challenges 3 Year targets Climate Change % of Global CO Emissions 9.5 M tons GHG /yr Inclusion 71% of Global Poor at $ per day in Asia % of IDA population in Asia East Asia & Pacific (ex-china) Rest of the world China Share of World's Poor $/day India South Asia (ex-india) AF Micro: 3.M AF SME: 1.13M A Infra: 17.M Farmers: 1.5M H&E:.9M Cost savings: $3M Global Integration China & India major source of Emerging Mkts FDI China and India % of global OFDI (1) Outward Foreign Direct Investment Share Directed to Emerging Economies * Data for China does not include Hong Kong 1 S-S deals % of key sectors with improved ES&G standards -3 innovative business models replicated 5

6 IFC in Asia and the Pacific Ulaanbaatar Bishkek Tashkent Almaty Khujand Beijing Dushanbe Kabul Islamabad Chengdu Kathmandu Karachi New Delhi Thimphu (Bhutan) Dhaka Hong Kong Kolkota Hanoi Mumbai Vientiane Colombo Bangkok Chennai Phnom Penh Ho Chi Minh City Singapore Manila Tokyo Davao City PACIFIC OCEAN Jakarta Dili Port Moresby Honiara INDIAN OCEAN IFC Hub Offices World Bank Group Hub Office IFC Country Offices Sydney

7 China Carefully Managed Soft Landing; Much Opportunity Risks Gradual Slow down Banking Sector SOE Innovation Governance Rising Inequality Opportunities Future growth: More consumption less investment & exports More services less industry Inclusive & Balanced Growth: Health care, education and MSME finance. Industries move from coast to west. Go Green : Huge market for renewable energy, water/energy efficiency, cleantech, green buildings. Emerging Outbound Investor: Particularly Africa, SE Asia and Latin America. China s GDP, CO emissions and FDI (as % of world total) Source: World Bank

8 India - Slowing Down, but Substantial Long Term Growth Risks Economic Slowdown 1 Elevated Inflation Weak Fiscal Position Opportunities Stable Macroeconomics: relatively healthy economic and demographic fundamentals Huge Opportunities for Infrastructure Development, creation and promotion of innovation Liquidity Tightness & Exchange Rate Depreciation: offers nearterm opportunity for local currency loans, to recapitalize financial sector, equity investment opportunities IT Companies to Keep Growing rapidly: most sophisticated to continue moving up value chain India Growth and Inflation India Growth (%) and Inflation (%) GDP Growth (%) Inflation GDP Growth (%) (RHS) (%) Inflation (%) (RHS) 1 3 India CA Balance, FDI & Portfolio Flows India CA Balance, ($bn) FDI & Portfolio Flows 5 ($bn) CA Balance ($bn) 3 FDI CA ($bn) Balance ($bn) 3 Portfolio FDI ($bn) flows ($bn) Diff: Portfolio CA+FDI+PF flows ($bn) 5 Diff: CA+FDI+PF

9 Bangladesh Relatively Insulated, Opportunities in Textiles and Infra Risks Infrastructure Bottlenecks Reliance on Remittances Fiscal Burden Vulnerability to High Oil Prices Opportunities Basic Infrastructure Needs: Power and water shortages may represent private sector infrastructure opportunities Liquidity support: Financial sector continues to need liquidity to support credit growth Competitive Advantage in Textiles: Duty-free access to EU for clothes, other finished goods since 11 as Bangladesh qualifies as least developed country significant advantage over main competitors China, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka GDP Growth (%) 1997 Bangladesh Growth and Inflation Bangladesh Growth (%) and Inflation Inflation GDP Growth (%) (RHS) (%) 1997 Inflation (%) (RHS) Bangladesh CA Balance, FDI & Portfolio Flows Bangladesh CA Balance, ($bn) FDI & Portfolio Flows (%) 5 ($bn) CA Balance ($bn) FDI CA ($bn) Balance ($bn) Portfolio FDI ($bn) flows ($bn) Diff: Portfolio CA+FDI+PF flows ($bn) Diff: CA+FDI+PF

10 Vietnam Balancing Growth vs. Inflation & Fiscal/External Sustainability Risks Opportunities Eurozone Exposure Dependency On FDI & Nat l Resources High Inflation Low cost Manufacturing: Benefits from China s move up the value chain as some primary industries relocate in Vietnam. Huge Infrastructure Needs: Power & Water needs significant investment Export Driven Growth: Manufacturing sector with good prospects due to double-digit growth in export demand

11 Indonesia Considerable Potential with Limited Risk Risks Opportunities Dependency On FDI Flows Solid macroeconomic position: Large domestic market; More closed economy means protection from global crises Commodity Prices Infrastructure Development: Particular focus on power and transport Governance Favorable demographic trends: Young pop.; expanding middle class: consumer goods & banking in demand Male 5 Female Source: U.S. Census Bureau

12 Philippines Strong External Accounts, but Vulnerable to Remittance Trends Risks Opportunities Dependence On Remittances Recent Political Stability: Desirable investment destination Natural Disasters Sound Macro-Econ. Outlook: Steady growth supported by sound fiscal management Pres. Aquino Declining Exports Infrastructure Development: Particular focus on power and transport Geothermal Power Generation

13 Thank you Question welcome 13

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