PORTFOLIO REPORT. December 2016 CEO S COMMENTS
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1 PORTFOLIO REPORT December 2016 CEO S COMMENTS The year of 2016 has come to an end, a year by many seen as a disappointing year following the results in both the EU referendum in UK as well as the US presidential election. However, many stock markets, especially in the west, have yielded positive returns. Small Cap has outperformed Large Cap significantly for the second year in a row, with OMX Nordic Small Cap GI yielding 23.6% compared to OMX Nordic Large CAP GI yielding 6%. Last couple of years big winners within the online gambling sector has had a tough year where NetEnt, Kindred Group (Unibet) and Betsson all experienced stock price decreases of between 15-40% for the year. We ve also seen somewhat of a revenge for the oil price now trading at prices ca. 50% higher than a year ago. Oil prices have particularly been soaring in December after OPEC decided to cut production for the first time in eight years. Swedish investment banking departments have had a busy year, as the IPOs in Sweden have been numerous. Nasdaq OMX Stockholm accounted for 21 new additions while First North and Aktietorget mastered 54 respectively 24 IPOs during the year. So what can we expect from 2017? As for stock market movement and other price developments, I honestly have no clue. The only thing I know is that I don t know, and I believe that insight is the best way forward, focusing on what s more predictable - fundamentals and value. What we do know for sure, though, is some of the events coming up this year that can affect the global economy. In Europe, we have elections in important countries such as the Netherlands and France during the spring as well as Germany in the autumn. Additionally, it s safe to say that negotiations concerning Brexit will continue to be in the center of attention. On the 20 th of January Donald Trump will take the presidential seat in the White House, and the actions he will take following that will undoubtedly affect the global economy. Having said that, I hope you all have been enjoying your Christmas ham and New Year s champagne, and are now ready to take on May the returns be with you all André Holmström Chief Executive Officer
2 ASSET MANAGER S COMMENTS Purchases: Hartmann, Tomra Systems Disposals: NGS Group, Betsson The HCM portfolio managed to outperform it s weighted indices benchmark in December, with a gain of 1,2% compared to 0,73%. Both the corporate bond (+0,4%) and global bond (+1,4%) asset classes managed to outperform their individual benchmarks, which performed -0,8% and -2,3% respectively. The alternative investment asset class gained 1,8% compared to it s benchmark s gain of 2,1%. The HCM equity portfolio was outperformed by OMXSGI; +1,88 % compared to +3 %. Best performer in our equity portfolio in December was our largest equity holding Loomis (+11,11%). Also, two of our other large holdings performed well: Investor (+9,96%) and Autoliv (+6,53%). On the worst performer list we find one of the best performer s of last month, AQ Group (-6,8%). Lucara Diamonds (-8,62%) is also on the worst performer list; though there has been some recovery in stock price over the last 1-2 weeks. Third worst performer was Hennes & Mauritz (-5,41%). After some interesting discussions and presentations at our meetings we decided to include two new companies in our equity portfolio. The first is Hartmann, which is a Danish mid cap company. The second is a Norwegian large cap company: Tomra Systems. As I mentioned in the November report, we decided to dispose NGS Group at our last meeting in November. Also, since Betsson s Q3 report we have had the stock on our sell list, and in December we had an opportunity to dispose our holdings in Betsson. This semester passed quickly, and I have learned a lot in my position as Head of Asset Management. It is now time for me to pass over my responsibility and embrace new challenges Carolina Elvind Head of Asset Management 2 (8)
3 PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE Portfolio Holdings 1 Month End of Month Portfolio Weight Benchmarks 1 Month Alternative Investments 1,8% 21,5% Barclay Hedge Fund Index 2,1% Excalibur 0,8% 3,2% Brummer Multi Strategy -1,4% 9,5% Gladiator 5,7% 8,8% Corporate Bonds 0,4% 12,7% S&P Corporate Bond Index -0,8% Carnegie Corporate Bond 0,4% 6,5% Nordea US Corporate Bond Fund 0,3% 6,2% Global Bonds 1,4% 17,8% S&P Global Dev. Sov. Bond -2,3% Parvest Bond Absolute Return -1,2% 8,7% Templeton Global Total Return 4,0% 9,1% Money Market 0,1% 20,6% OMRX Money Market Index -0,1% Spiltan Räntefond Sverige 0,1% 20,6% Equities, including cash on hand 1,9% 27,4% OMXSGI 3,0% Return & Risk HCM Benchmark Last Month 1,20% 0,73% Year to Date 3,80% 7,97% Last Twelve Months 3,80% 7,97% Since Start (Dec. 2011) 41,92% 38,52% Average Yearly Return 7,13% 6,62% Months Active Number of Positive Months Number of Negative Months Annualized Std. Dev. Last 12m 5,50% 4,25% Sharpe Ratio Last 12m 0,46 1,57 Allocation Limits Min. Actual Max. Alternative 15% 21,5% 25% Corporate Bonds 5% 12,7% 15% Global Bonds 10% 17,8% 20% Money Market 10% 20,6% 25% Equities 10% 27,4% 30% Currency Exposure SEK 74,7% USD 22,0% NOK 2,1% DKK 1,2% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year ,35% 1,35% ,71% 1,85% -0,85% -0,89% 0,13% -0,63% 0,17% -0,87% 0,61% 0,21% 0,59% 0,75% 3,78% ,92% 1,38% 0,51% 0,71% 0,21% -0,70% 0,93% 1,12% 0,88% 2,55% 1,25% -0,18% 9,97% ,11% 1,51% 0,71% 0,80% 2,76% 0,88% 1,26% 0,50% 0,43% -0,27% 0,68% 0,82% 10,65% ,05% 2,38% 1,94% 0,25% 1,00% -2,12% 2,09% -2,34% -1,86% 2,19% 2,09% -1,88% 5,73% ,80% -0,68% -0,65% -0,29% 1,69% -1,80% 3,29% 0,52% 0,33% 2,02% 0,03% 1,20% 3,80% Total 41,92% 3 (8)
4 Portfolio Holdings Quantity Initial Values Market Values Unrealized P/L Weight Price/Share Value Price/Share Value Amount % Alternative Investments ,0% 21,5% Excalibur ,4% 3,2% Brummer Multi Strategy ,6% 9,5% Gladiator ,9% 8,8% Corporate Bonds ,0% 12,7% Carnegie Corporate Bond ,2% 6,5% Nordea US Corporate Bond Fund ,8% 6,2% Global Bonds ,6% 17,8% Parvest Bond Absolute Return ,5% 8,7% Templeton Global Total Return ,1% 9,1% Money Market ,5% 20,6% Spiltan Räntefond Sverige ,5% 20,6% Equities ,2% 27,4% HCM Equities ,2% 26,5% Cash on Hand ,95% Total ,5% 100% 4 (8)
5 EQUITIES PERFORMANCE ä Equities Quantity Initial Values Market Values Unrealized P/L Weight Price/Share Value SEK Price/Share Value SEK Amount % 1 Month Affiliated Managers Group , , ,70% -3,09% 4,27% Apple 72 58, , ,52% 3,47% 3,45% AQ Group , , ,81% -6,80% 5,24% Autoliv SDB , , ,20% 6,53% 7,85% Brdr. Hartmann , , ,09% -0,80% 4,56% BioGaia , , ,96% 5,45% 5,13% Hennes & Mauritz B , , ,52% -5,41% 10,54% ICA Gruppen , , ,89% 1,61% 5,48% Internationella Engelska Skolan , , ,89% 2,01% 2,89% Investor A , , ,42% 9,96% 11,30% Loomis , , ,28% 11,11% 14,73% Lucara Diamonds , , ,52% -8,62% 4,24% Microsoft , , ,39% 1,81% 4,25% Opus Group , , ,09% 1,56% 4,37% Tomra Systems , , ,44% -2,71% 7,81% Walt Disney , , ,69% 3,86% 3,88% Total ,24% Best Performers 1 Month Loomis 11,11% Investor A 9,96% Autoliv SDB 6,53% Worst Performers 1 Month Lucara Diamonds -8,62% AQ Group -6,80% Hennes & Mauritz B -5,41% Currency Exposure Weight SEK 72,76% USD 15,31% NOK 7,53% DKK 4,40% Allocation Limits Actual Allowed Nordic Large Cap Exposure 55,71% >50% Largest Equity Weight Loomis 14,73% <15% Lowest Equity Weight Internationella Engelska Skolan 2,89% >2,5% Largest Non-Nordic Large Cap AQ Group 5,06% <7,5% 5 (8)
6 Return & Risk HCM Equities Benchmark Last Month 1,88% 3,02% Year To Date 1,53% 9,82% Last Twelve Months 1,53% 9,82% Since Start (March 2005) 210,20% 138,54% Average Yearly Return 10,04% 7,62% Months Active Number of Positive Months Number of Negative Months Annualized Std. Dev. Last 12m 15,19% 11,95% Sharpe Ratio Last 12m 0,02 0,71 Benchmark Correlation Last 12m 0,86 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year ,96% 0,02% 5,89% 3,12% 1,26% -0,07% -0,36% 1,61% 1,97% 5,16% 22,33% ,59% 0,88% 4,84% -5,22% -3,35% -0,48% 1,23% 4,39% 2,96% 7,87% -1,02% 5,04% 14,61% ,35% -1,06% 4,81% 6,58% 1,72% -0,72% -4,62% -4,76% 1,54% -2,10% -3,19% -2,11% -0,33% ,54% 5,75% 1,02% 0,42% 2,94% -8,80% -4,09% 1,11% -6,85% -12,25% -3,86% 6,80% -26,67% ,96% -1,78% -1,61% 16,85% 3,14% -1,09% 5,53% 3,60% 1,12% 4,43% 0,47% 0,37% 30,15% ,72% -0,93% 4,63% -2,04% -2,70% -2,25% 2,06% -2,71% 2,98% -1,65% -0,09% 6,01% 6,70% ,33% -0,21% 0,18% 3,63% 2,32% -4,43% -3,39% -6,73% -2,82% 8,83% -1,49% -0,16% -4,73% ,30% 6,77% -1,78% -2,94% -4,89% 3,01% -0,53% -4,24% 0,43% -1,08% 1,50% 2,94% 5,80% ,67% 3,27% 1,67% 5,99% -0,38% -1,16% 4,97% 2,57% 4,07% 7,66% 2,04% -1,26% 38,07% ,84% 6,49% 2,08% 1,42% 7,23% 2,14% 2,37% 1,16% -0,78% -1,14% 2,39% -0,59% 23,80% ,13% 9,84% 4,13% 2,20% 3,63% -6,16% 7,12% -6,57% -3,00% 6,39% 6,29% -3,40% 24,33% ,09% -0,83% -0,91% -1,12% 4,20% -7,39% 9,15% 0,56% 1,23% 1,88% 1,06% 1,88% 1,53% Total 209,79% 6 (8)
7 7 (8)
8 BENCHMARKS OMX Stockholm All-Share Gross Index (OMXSGI) The OMX Stockholm All-Share Gross Index includes all the shares listed on OMX Nordic Exchange Stockholm. The aim of the index is to reflect the current status and changes in the market. Dividends are re-invested in the index. The index is market capitalization weighted and is calculated in Swedish Kronor. Note that historically Handels Capital Management used OMXSPI, but after revising the performance measurement to include changes in cash on hand and thus dividends for HCM Equities, the benchmark index was changed accordingly. Barclay Hedge Fund Index The Barclay Hedge Fund Index is a measure of the average return of all hedge funds (excepting Funds of Funds) in the Barclay database. The index is simply the arithmetic average of the net returns of all the funds that have reported that month. S&P U.S Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index Rebased The S&P Corporate Bond Index is an equally weighted basket of 5612 investment-grade corporate bonds with laddered maturities. The index intends to measure the return of readily tradable, high-grade U.S. corporate bonds. The index is denominated in USD, and is therefore rebased to SEK on a monthly basis. S&P Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index S&P Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index is a comprehensive index designed to track the performance of local currency-denominated securities publicly issued by developed countries for their domestic markets. Its 1300 components are market-value-weighted. The index is denominated in USD, and is therefore rebased to SEK on a monthly basis. OMRX Money Market Index OMRX Money Market Index is an index related to treasury bills, nominal treasury bonds with benchmark status and a time to maturity of less than one year. Asset Class Composite Index The ACC-index is a tailor made index constructed solely to reflect the tactical asset allocation implemented by HCM. It is calculated from all of the above named indices. The indices are reweighted on a monthly basis by each asset class s weight in the HCM portfolio as per the previous month s closing balance. DISCLAIMER This report is produced for information purposes only and the report shall not be used in any other way or for any other purpose than providing the reader with information about Handels Capital Management AB s asset management. This report, the statements and information in it, shall never be seen as a recommendation or investment advice and the reader shall, when taking investment or strategic decisions, never rely on the information or opinions expressed in the report. In no event will Handels Capital Management AB or any of their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any indirect, direct, special or consequential damage arising out of any use of the information contained in this report, including without limitations any lost profits. 8 (8)
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