The Greening Earth. Ranga B. Myneni* & Compton Jim Tucker. With contributions from:

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1 The Greening Earth Ranga B. Myneni* & Compton Jim Tucker With contributions from: Alexeyev, Anderson, Asrar, Bogaert, Bousquet, Buermann, Ceulemans, Cramer, Dickinson, Dong, Friedlingstein, Hashimoto, Hughes, Jolly, Kaufmann, Kauppi, Keeling, Knyazikhin, Lucht, Liski, Nemani, Piper, Potter, Prentice, Running, Shabanov, Sitch, Slayback, Song, Smith and Zhou Gustav Klimt ( ): Der Park (1910) MOMA-NY This research was funded by NASA-ESE. (1 of 37) *department of geography, boston university, cybele.bu.edu

2 (2 of 37) publications Bogaert et al., Evidence for a persistent and extensive greening trend in Eurasia inferred from satellite vegetation index data. J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 107 (D11), /2001JD Buermann et al., Circulation anomalies explain interannual covariability in northern hemisphere temperatures and greenness. J. Geophys. Res. (accepted Dec 2002). Dong et al., Remote sensing of boreal and temperate forest woody biomass: Carbon pools, Sources and Sinks, Remote Sens. Environ. 84: Kaufmann et al., Effect of orbital drift and sensor changes on the time series of AVHRR vegetation index data. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 38: Kaufmann et al., Reply to Comment on "Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satellite data of vegetation index during " by J. R. Ahlbeck. J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 107(D11), /2001JD Lucht et al., Climatic control of the high-latitude vegetation greening trend and Pinatubo effect. Science, 296: (May ). Myneni, R. B., et al., Interannual variations in satellite-sensed vegetation index data from 1981 to J. Geophys. Res., 103 (D6): Myneni, R. B., et al., Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from Nature, 386: Myneni and Dong et al., A large carbon sink in the woody biomass of northern forests. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA., 98(26): Nemani et al., Climate driven increases in terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to Science (in review Apr 2003). Shabanov et al., Analysis of interannual changes in northern vegetation activity observed in AVHRR data during 1981 to IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 40: Tucker et al., Higher northern latitude NDVI and growing season trends from 1982 to Int. J. Biometeorol., 45: Zhou et al., Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satellite data of vegetation index during 1981 to 1999, J. Geophys. Res., 106 (D17): Zhou et al., Relation between interannual variations in satellite measures of vegetation greenness and climate between 1982 and J. Geophys. Res. 108(D1), doi: /2002jd

3 (3 of 37) outline Background on NDVI and NDVI data sets Greening in the north - the northern latitude greening trend during the 1980s and 1990s - persistence of greening in Eurasia vs North America - the temperature connection - the connection to circulation anomalies - northern latitude greening and the forest woody biomass carbon sink The greening earth and increasing terrestrial net primary production

4 (4 of 37) reflectance spectrum of a green leaf Pigments in green leaves (notably chlorophyll) absorb strongly at red and blue wavelengths. Lack of such absorption at near-infrared wavelengths results in strong scatter from leaves. upper epidermis palisade layer spongy tissue lower epidermis image credit: Govaerts et al.

5 (5 of 37) normalized difference vegetation index, ndvi The contrast between red and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation is captured by the greenness index, NDVI, as [(nir-red)/(nir+red)]. image credit: Huete et al.

6 (6 of 37) avhrr ndvi data sets The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers, AVHRR, have been flown on NOAA polar orbiting afternoon-viewing platforms NOAA-07: jul 81 to jan 85 NOAA-09: feb 85 to oct 88 NOAA-11: nov 88 to sep 94 NOAA-14: jan 85 to oct 01. GIMMS and PAL NDVI Data Sets Have Calibration Partial Atmospheric Correction Corrections for Stratospheric Aerosols 10 or 15-day Maximum Value Composites Run from July 1981 to about mid-2001 GIMMS: GLOBAL INVENTORY MONITORING AND MODELING SYSTEMS PAL: PATHFINDER AVHRR LAND

7 (7 of 37) outline Background on NDVI and NDVI data sets Use with caution - download from Greening in the north - the northern latitude greening trend during the 1980s and 1990s - persistence of greening in Eurasia vs North America - the temperature connection - the connection to circulation anomalies - northern latitude greening and the forest woody biomass carbon sink The greening earth and increasing terrestrial net primary production

8 (8 of 37) greening trend in the north In the north, where vegetation growth is seasonal, the cumulative growing season greenness, which is the area under the NDVI curve, can change either due to a longer photosynthetically active growing season or due to increased greenness magnitude, or both. 1) Define vegetated pixels in the study area using a land cover map 2) Use NDVI values greater than zero only to avoid sparsely vegetated areas, pixels with snow and any corrupted data Increase changes in greenness magnitude changes in growing season duration earlier spring delayed fall Jan Jul Aug Dec Jan Jul Aug Dec 3) Assess changes in peak seasonal greenness from July and August average NDVI 4) Use NDVI threshold to assess changes in dates of spring green-up and autumn greendown (assess sensitivity to threshold value)

9 (9 of 37) greening trend in the north (1980s & 90s) Analysis of GIMMS (v1) ndvi data for the period 1981 to 1999 indicate that: A larger increase in growing season NDVI magnitude (12 vs 8%) and a longer active growing season (18 vs 12 days) brought about by an early spring and delayed autumn are observed in Eurasia relative to North America GREENNESS NORTH AMERICA (40N~70N) 8.4%/18 yrs (p<0.05) NDVI TREND YEAR GROWING SEASON DURATION NORTH AMERICA (40N~70N) 11.9 days/18 yrs (p<0.05) Days of Growing Season Duration Trend YEAR GREENNESS NDVI TREND EURASIA (40N~70N) 12.4%/18 yrs (p<0.05) 125 NDVI averaged over boreal growing 115 YEAR season months of May to September YEAR increased by about 10%, the timing of spring green-up advanced From Zhou et al., (JGR, 106(D17): , by about 6 days. 2001) GROWING SEASON DURATION EURASIA (40N~70N) 17.5 days/18 yrs (p<0.05) Days of Growing Season Duration Trend

10 (10 of 37) outline Background on NDVI and NDVI data sets Use with caution download from Greening in the north - the northern latitude greening trend during the 1980s and 1990s the northern latitudes (>40N) have greened since the early 1980s - persistence of greening in Eurasia vs North America - the temperature connection - the connection to circulation anomalies - northern latitude greening and the forest woody biomass carbon sink The greening earth and increasing terrestrial net primary production

11 (11 of 37) spatial pattern of greening Analyses of pixel-based persistence indices from GIMMS (v1) NDVI data for the period 1981 to 1999 indicate that: About 61% of the total vegetated area between 40N-70N in Eurasia shows a persistent increase in growing season NDVI over a broad contiguous swath of land from Central Europe through Siberia to the Aldan plateau, where almost 58% (7.3 million km2) is forests and woodlands. North America, in comparison, shows a fragmented pattern of change, notable only in the forests of the southeast and grasslands of the upper Midwest. These results are further substantiated from a study that evaluated patch characteristics using landscape ecology metrics (Bogaert et al., JGR, 107(D11): /2001jd001075, 2002). From Zhou et al., (JGR, 106(D17): , 2001)

12 (12 of 37) outline Background on NDVI and NDVI data sets Use with caution download from Greening in the north - the northern latitude greening trend during the 1980s and 1990s the northern latitudes (>40N) have greened since the early 1980s - persistence of greening in Eurasia vs North America the greening in Eurasia is more persistent than in North America - the temperature connection - the connection to circulation anomalies - northern latitude greening and the forest woody biomass carbon sink The greening earth and increasing terrestrial net primary production

13 (13 of 37) greenness and surface temperature The temporal changes and continental differences in NDVI are consistent with ground based measurements of temperature, an important determinant of biological activity in the north ANOMALY NORTH AMERICA (40N~70N) TEMPERATURE NDVI T GISS temperature; EA Eurasia; NA - North America ANOMALY TEMPERATURE NDVI EURASIA (40N~70N) y EA NDVI NA NDVI EA NDVI x EA T NA T NA T y = β 0 +β 1 x + ε yes yes no A statistically meaningful relation? y = β 0 +β 1 x+ β 2 time + ε yes yes no Δy = β 0 + β 1 Δ x + ε yes yes no NA NDVI EA T no no no From Zhou et al., (JGR, 106(D17): , 2001)

14 (14 of 37) modeling the temperature connection The observed trend toward earlier spring budburst and increased maximum leaf area is produced by the model as a consequence of biogeochemical vegetation responses mainly to changes in temperature. A biogeochemical model of vegetation using observed climate data predicted the high northern latitude greening trend over the past two decades observed by satellites and a marked setback in this trend after the Mount Pinatubo volcano eruption in From Lucht et al., (Science, 296: , 2002)

15 (15 of 37) outline Background on NDVI and NDVI data sets Use with caution download from Greening in the north - the northern latitude greening trend during the 1980s and 1990s the northern latitudes (>40N) have greened since the early 1980s - persistence of greening in Eurasia vs North America the greening in Eurasia is more persistent than in North America - the temperature connection it is temperature, not co2, that is the related to greening - the connection to circulation anomalies - northern latitude greening and the forest woody biomass carbon sink The greening earth and increasing terrestrial net primary production

16 (15 of 37) outline Snip!

17 (35 of 37) npp trends in the tropics The evergreen forests of the Amazon region showed NPP increases, on average, of >1.0% / yr, contributing to over 40% of the global NPP increases between 1982 and An increase in NPP of <0.22% per ppm increase in CO2, within the range of experimental evidence, could be invoked to explain all of the estimated global NPP increase of 6.17% / 18yr. NPP increases of >1%/yr as in the case of Amazonia require a fertilization effect greater than 0.5% per ppm of CO2 increase, which appears to be much greater than those reported by field experiments. We suggest increases in solar radiation, as a result of declining cloud cover, in these predominantly radiation-limited forests as a plausible explanation for the increased NPP.

18 (36 of 37) Outline - CONCLUSIONS Background on NDVI and NDVI data sets Use with caution download from Greening in the north - the northern latitude greening trend during the 1980s and 1990s the northern latitudes (>40N) have greened since the early 1980s - persistence of greening in Eurasia vs North America the greening in Eurasia is more persistent than in North America - the temperature connection it is temperature, not co2, that is the related to greening - the connection to circulation anomalies ENSO and AO are partly responsible for the correlation between temperature and NDVI - northern latitude greening and the forest woody biomass carbon sink biomass carbon sinks represent 10% of the annual fossil fuel emissions The greening earth and increasing terrestrial net primary production Tropical and northern ecosystems drive increases in terrestrial npp as a result of easing of climatic limits to plant growth

19 (37 of 37) bottomline Since the early 1980s about, - half the vegetated lands greened by about 11% - 15% of the vegetated lands browned by about 3% - 1/3 rd of the vegetated lands showed no changes. These changes are due to easing of climatic constraints to plant growth. The End

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