Ahi Achieving i clean energy economies through accelerated international action

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1 Ahi Achieving i clean energy economies through accelerated international action Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director Clean Energy Ministerial Washington DC 19 July 2010

2 World total primary energy supply Mtoe Other renewables 8000 Biomass & waste Hydro 6000 Nuclear Gas 4000 Oil 2000 Coal 0 OE Non-OE OE Non-OE OE Non-OE OE Non-OE 2007 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050 Major Economies are projected to account for 70% of growth in energy demand and CO2 emissions between now and 2030

3 A portfolio of technologies is needed to achieve a global energy revolution Gt CO Baseline emissions 57 Gt CCS 19% 50 Renewables 17% Nuclear 6% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% 25 End-use fuel switching 15% BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% 5 WEO ppm case ETP2010 analysis Efficiency provides 58% of thereductions, but CCS, renewables and nuclear needed in the power sector

4 Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario Mtoe % 27% 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050 By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than today under the BLUE Map scenario.

5 Impact of fossil fuel subsidy phase out, Global fossil fuel savings Global energy related CO 2 emissions Mtoe Gt Coal Oil Gas No subsidy removal Subsidy removal Compared with iha baseline of no removal, global lphase out of fossil ilfuel consumption subsidies could reduce energy demand by 5.8% (6.5 mb/d oil savings) and energy related CO 2 emissions by 2.4 Gt in 2020.

6 Transforming markets for clean energy products Many successful national case studies for clean energy market transformation CFLs, energy efficient motors, solar PV, fuel efficient vehicles More can be achieved through international collaboration Harmonised test protocols and standards for EE products Common EE incentives for appliance manufacturers Similar solar PV incentives programmes Coordinated delectric vehicle pilot efforts

7 Global cooperation can transform end use electrical equipment markets Action needed to accelerate market transformation on: 1. Refrigerator and freezers 2. Domestic lighting 3. Televisions 4. Air conditioners 5. Electric motors 6. Network standby power

8 Evolution of light duty vehicle sales by technology Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenario million sales/ yr Hydrogen fuel cell Hydrogen hybrid Electricity CNG and LPG Plug in hybrid diesel Plug in hybrid gasoline Hbiddi Hybrid diesel Hybrid gasoline Diesel 0 Gasoline In the BLUE Map scenario advanced technologies, such as plug in hybrid, all electric and fuel cell vehicles, dominate sales after 2030.

9 PV markets rapidly expanding Over 7 GW of new additions in 2009 Up to 22 GW of cumulative installed capacity

10 Decarbonising the Power sector: CCS is one part of story alongside nuclear and renewables Capt tured CO 2 (MtCO 2 /y yr) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 OE PACIFIC USA OTHER OE N AM OE EUROPE ODA ME INDIA EEU + FSU CSA CHINA AFR projects OE (72%) Non OE (28%) projects OE (50%) Non OE (50%) projects OE (49%) Non OE (51%) ,100 projects OE (40%) Non OE (60%) ,400 projects OE (35%) Non OE (65%)

11 Public clean energy RD&D: Post stimulusstrategies strategies needed Publicsector RD&D spending inieacountries Stimulus packages are a one time funding increase; how to achieve sustained higher levels of investment?

12 Incentivising Investment Public spending is one proven way to accelerate economic growth and energy technology innovation Need to leverage new private investment by providing long term, stable standards and incentives More of these types of strategic t approaches are needed: d India s National Clean Energy Fund for research and innovation, financed by a levy on coal Korea s Green New Deal strategy, which funds 17 new growth engines and supports RD&D The US Advanced Research Projects Agency Energy, helps high risk, high return technologies bridge the valley of death The UK s Green Investment Bank with $3B in initial funds for largescale clean energy demonstration projects China s 2009 investment in electricity grid development in 2009 was its highest ever, and plans to invest $44B in advanced vehicles t over the next 5 years

13 The first green shoots much more needs to be done of an energy technology revolution 46 GW of PV per year until 2050 Over 1 billion plug in and electric vehicles in 2050 Over plants operational by 2050 Lighting market dominated by LEDs in 2050 Increase funding by 2 to 5 times current levels 6 GW of PV installed in 2009 Plans for 5 million hybrid and electric vehicles by large scale integrated plants being developed Global sales of 3500 million/yr 1/3 funding increase between 2005 and 2008 Renewables Transport Carbon capture Energy and storage efficiency Research and development OE/IEA

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