Managing Water Supplies for Climate Change and Variability - Melbourne, Australia
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1 Managing Water Supplies for Climate Change and Variability - Melbourne, Australia Bruce G Rhodes Manager Urban Water Planning bruce.rhodes@melbournewater.com.au
2 Presentation Outline Melbourne Water Supply System Climate Change and Drought Drought Response and Water Conservation Melbourne s Water Plan
3 Melbourne - current situation Abrupt and severe streamflow reductions since 1997 Storages currently <35% of capacity Drought Response Plan implemented , 2006-present Major studies and strategies Climate change study 2005 Major water supply strategies 2002, 2006, 2007 Significant demand management activities and water restrictions per capita consumption 37% lower than 1990s Current domestic target of 155l/c/d Major supply augmentations being implemented Reconnection of Tarago Reservoir (mid-2009) Inter-basin transfer via modernisation of irrigation infrastructure (2010) Non climate dependent supplies Seawater desalination (late 2011)
4 Melbourne Water Supply System
5 Current supply characteristics Surface supply system Supply around 3.8 million people in greater Melbourne area Water sourced from forested catchment areas Reliable streamflow by Australian standards Catchment Av. Rainfall up to 2390 mm (94 inches per year) Runoff depths 250 mm to 820 mm (9.8 inches to 32 inches per year) Multiple sources of supply Total system storage 1,773,000 ML (1.44 Million acre ft ) Large Storage Capacity relative to inflow Thomson Reservoir Capacity 1,068,000 ML (865,000 Acre ft ) Mean inflow Thomson Reservoir 248,000 ML (201,100 Acre ft) Drought security Long detention times Minimal water treatment Restricted access forested catchments Long detention times Gravity Transfers Minimal pumping
6 System Streamflows 1997 to year lowest recorded streamflow 3 significant El-Nino events (1997,98, 2002/03, 2006/07) 2006 streamflow 30% lower than previous lowest streamflow 39% lower than average 1,400,000 Annual Streamflow at Melbourne's Major Harvesting Reservoirs (Thomson, Upper Yarra, O'Shannassy and Maroondah Reservoirs) Inflow to Storage (ML) 1,200,000 1,000, , , ,000 Average Inflow ( ) 615 GL/a Average Inflow ( ) 377 GL/a 200, Year
7 Total System Storage Capacity Since Thomson Thomson Reservoir Total System Volume and Annual Demand (ML) Sugarloaf Cardinia Greenvale Sugarloaf Reservoir Year Annual Water Demand
8 Climate Change and Drought
9 Projected runoff changes by the end of the 21 st century Source: Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report, IPCC AR4 - based on SRES A1B scenario
10 2005 Climate Change Study Collaborative CSIRO and Melbourne Water Study Climate change scenarios Downscale GCM to local climate Catchment Rainfall/Runoff modelling Qualitative risk assessment Case studies of key risk areas Water: Snapshot supply demand balance (2020, 2050) 3 Climate change and 3 demand scenarios Sewerage: Impacts for overflows 5% rainfall increase per degree, 1 in 5 year 14% rainfall increase (i.e. current 1 in 10 year) Drainage Change in flood risk and impact Assessed changes to 1 in 100 event 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall intensity increase per degree warming
11 Climate Change Whole of Cycle Risks Water Supply: Catchments, streamflow, yield, assets, demand, bushfire Sewage: Infiltration and flows, concentration, corrosion and treatment processes Drainage: Flooding frequency, severity, extent, sediment & pollutant loadings Environmental implications: Habitat, regime, water quality, wetlands Other Sea level rise Impacts on built assets Implications of other infrastructure (power, telecoms) Design and capital programs Potential for multiple/combined impacts
12 2005 Melbourne Water Climate Change Study Increased average and summer temperatures Reduced annual rainfall Increased evaporation Reduced streamflow and yield More extreme events with more hot days, more dry days and increased rainfall intensity during storm events Temperature C to C (mid range C) C to C (mid range C) Evaporation 1% to 7% (mid range 3%) 3% to 18% (mid 8%) Rainfall -5 % to - 0% (mid range -2%) -13 % to 1 % (mid range -4%) Streamflow -3 % to - 11% (mid range-7%) -7 % to - 35 % (mid range -18%) Yield -4 % to - 15% (mid range -8%) -10 % to - 40% (mid range -20%) 2007 Updated Projections (Climate Change in Australia Technical Report 2007) Similar to 2005 study Slightly higher reductions - winter rain Slightly lower reductions spring rain and potential evaporation
13 Climate Change in Water Strategies 2002 Water Supply Strategy Climate change studies recommended 2006 Central Region Sustainable Water Strategy (CRSWS), Dept Sustainability and Environment) Climate change projections Step change in climate 2007 Our Water Our Future (OWOF) Last 10 years (i.e. step change) 2004/05/06 Long term conditions 2006 Draft CRSWS yield reductions with climate change scenarios (source DSE 2006) 2007 OWOF Storage levels with climate scenarios (source DSE 2007)
14 Drought Response Planning and Water Conservation
15 Managing for Climate Managing Melbourne s water resources systems for climate variability and change in a sustainable manner requires: Data Collection and Analysis Decision support systems Long term planning Supply - Demand Strategies (includes climate change) Design principles and standards Integrated resource management Short term response Drought Response Plans Pre Drought, Drought, Post Drought Phases Ministerial Guidelines for Victoria Emergency Response Plans Communications and awareness Research and development Climate variability and change studies Benchmarking On-going review and development
16 Drought Response Plan Developed in accordance with State Guidelines Defines roles and accountabilities Retail Company restriction implementation Ongoing resource and climate assessment Ministerial approvals Protocol for water companies Drought Coordination Committee 2,000,000 Melbourne Water Storage Total Storage Volume (ML) Since 1992 Provides for Staged Response Early warning 4 stage restrictions Post drought review Four Stage Restriction Policy Linked to Permanent Water Savings Plan Up to 17.5% annual reduction Up to 36% peak month reduction Flexible options for savings included Trigger Methodology Operating Levels Drought demands Drought inflows Levels of service Storage Volume (ML) 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Date Total System Storage Capacity Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08
17 Some Initiatives/Activities Demand Management/Restrictions Demand management programs derived from strategic targets Industry programs Showerhead exchange Individualised social marketing Government rebates Flexibility of restriction stages Permanent Water Savings Rules Stage 3a restrictions from April l/c/d target since December 2008 Supply: Operational efficiencies Leak and pressure reduction Reinstatement diversion weirs Environmental flow management Water quality management Access to low reservoir levels Other: Research Water Efficiency Labelling (WELS) Pricing Communications National Water Efficiency Labelling 2008 Print advertisement
18 Communications and Engagement Website Rainfall and river levels, storage volumes Weekly water update Drought Water conservation Drought Response Plan and restrictions information Daily storage information Eg Media, Taxis Water Bill Information Advertising Campaigns Print adds and direct TV and Radio Media Advice Weekly TV Weather Education Brochures and Booklets Partnerships Savewater Research Smart Water Fund Climate research Stakeholder Engagement Peak bodies Water agencies 2002 Melbourne Water Advertisement
19 Changing water demand and savings Melbourne's Water Consumption and Population Supplied 211 4,000, ,500, ,000,000 US gallon equivalent (1 US gallon = litres) 132 2,500,000 Annual consumption 106 2,000, Total volumes saved in storage since 2002 = 362GL 79 1,500,000 Per capita per day consumption 53 1,000, ,000 0 R RR R RR RRR RR R / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2007 Polpulation Annual consumption (GL) & Per capita per day consumption (l/p/d) Financial Year
20 Melbourne s Water Plan
21 Chronology Strategic Plans and Drought Actions Year Key Strategies, Plans, Studies Drought and Response Actions Restriction Stage 1992 Melbourne Water Resources Review Drought Management Guidelines for Victoria History of Drought in Victoria 1995 Drought Response Plan for Melbourne /98 El-Nino Yarra R. Diversions Drought Plan 1998 Ministerial Guidelines for Drought Planning Water Resources Strategy for Melbourne Revised drought response plan guidelines Nov 02 - Stage 1 Legal update of DRP Implementation of DRP 2003 Victorian Government Green Paper - Securing Our Water Future Aug 03- Stage 2 Joint Water Conservation Plan 2004 Victorian Government White Paper - Securing Our Water Future Together MW/CSIRO Climate Change study Joint Water Conservation Plan - Revised 2005 Discussion Paper - Central Region Sustainable Restrictions lifted Water Strategy Permanent Water Conservation Measures (PWCM) introduced Mar 05 PWCMs 2006 Central Region Sustainable Water Strategy Revised 4 stage policy for PWCMs Water Supply Demand Strategy for Melbourne 2006/07 El-Nino - Lowest inflow on record Environmental flow entitlements allocated Development Uniform Statewide 4 stage policy (Oct) Introduction of restrictions Sep 06 - Stage 1 Supply improvement initiatives Nov 06 - Stage 2 Qualification of environmental flows (Jan & Nov) Jan 07 - Stage Our Water Our Future: The Next Stages Catchment Bushfire response Joint Water Conservation Plan Revision Update Stage 3 to Stage 3a Apr 07 - Stage 3a 2008 Our Water Our Future: The Next Stages 12 Month Progress Report Lowest recorded autumn streamflow Target 155 l/c/d for domestic use Dec 08 - Stage 3a and T155
22 Our Water Our Future: The next stage (June 2007) Desalination plant for Melbourne Modernising irrigation infrastructure Expansion of the Water Grid Increased recycling Water conservation programs See
23 Discussion
24 Discussion Climate variability and change Range of risks and impacts Historic record may not be a reliable guide for future conditions Abrupt and large climatic/hydrological shifts can occur Non linear impacts eg catchment response and land use changes Issues of baseline for climate change projections and variability Planning and Response Short term response and long term supply/demand planning linked Pre-existing, well defined plans aid response to climatic events Community engagement Good planning/response aids reputation/management Considerable financial, social and organisational stresses Non-structural solutions are an effective part of response/adaptation Information and knowledge Data, analysis and knowledge sharing support response Many modes of information sharing and learning Climate change adaptation Uncertainty and complexity inherent in planning for climate change Local climate change projections Risk assessments support adaptation
25 Some challenges Managing for climate change variability baselines and projections Managing and improving environmental conditions Sustainability Integrated water cycle management Energy and water linkages Optimisation Information needs and assessment Private sector involvement Community expectations Global economic downturn
26 Thank You Useful links Melbourne Water: Climate change study: Retail Water Businesses: City West Water: South East Water: Yarra Valley Water: Our Water Our Future : Drought Response Plan: see
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