Tale of Two Markets: Single-Family vs. Multifamily Construction
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1 Tale of Two Markets: Single-Family vs. Multifamily Construction Housing Finance Policy Center Data Talk July 13, 216 Speakers: Paul Emrath, Greg Willett, and Jamie Woodwell
2 Tale of Two Markets A. Single-Family Construction Urban Institute Data Talk Series July 13, 216 Paul Emrath Vice President of Survey and Housing Policy Research National Association of Home Builders
3 Outline 3 Housing starts / NAHB s latest forecast Supply constraints / costs inhibiting single-family production Role of government regulation Supply vs. demand for housing in different price ranges
4 Total Housing Starts Since World War II (in thousands) 4 2,4 2,2 2, Annual Starts 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 Worst Pre-28 Recession
5 Single-Family Housing Starts Rising, but still well below normal 5 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 Thousands of units, SAAR ,343, Normal , , 4% , 1% , 11% , 15% 218 1,42, 14% 218Q4: 81% of Normal 1, 8% fall 216Q1: 59% of Normal Trough to Current: Mar 9 = 353, May 16 = 764, +116%
6 Multifamily Housing Starts Back to normal Thousands of units, SAAR Avg=344, , Normal , , 15% , 12% , -5% , 2% , -4% 216Q1: 17% of Normal 218Q4: 11% of Normal % fall 15 1 Trough to Current: 4 th Q 9 = 82, 5 1 st Q 16 = 361, +34%
7 Why Hasn t Single-family Production Recovered Further and Faster? 7 Supply bottlenecks: Availability and price of lots / labor Especially in key locations / with key skills Regulation: Difficult to get development approved in some jurisdictions Fees, restrictions, etc. drive up costs
8 Share of Builders Reporting Labor Shortages Highest Since 2 Economy was very strong consistently in the late 199s Current shortage especially severe relative to housing starts 8
9 Recent Shortages Worse for Subcontractors than for Labor Directly Employed by Single-family Builders 9 Builders Reporting Serious to Some Shortage: Average Percentage for 9 trades Labor Subcontractors Sep. '96 Sep. '97 Dec. '98 Feb. ' Jul. ' Nov. ' Apr. '2 Dec. '3 Jul. '4 Oct. '4 Jul. '5 Oct. '5 Nov. '5 May '6 Jun. '12 Mar. 13 Jun. 14 Jun. 15 Jun. 16
10 Share of Builders Reporting Lot Shortages: Higher than Ever 1
11 Lot Prices Also Higher than Ever (even though new-home lots are smaller than ever) 11 NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction, U.S. Census Bureau and HUD
12 Labor/Lot Shortages: Sources
13 NAHB Article Published on May 2, 216: 13
14 Government Regulation in the Price of a New Home 14 Purpose: Not to argue that all regulation is bad, but to show how much we already have; question if regulators are adequately considering costs Challenges: Have to go to builders; only they have the information But their accounting systems aren t designed to capture regulatory costs
15 Special Questions on the March 216 Survey for the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) 15
16 HMI Survey Results Need to Be Combined With Other Data 1. point charged for all land acquisition, development, and construction (AD&C) loans, based on results from a Quarterly Finance Survey (QFS) that NAHB was conducting in the early 2s. 16 A 7.65 percent interest rate on all AD&C loans. The QFS indicates that rates are e typically set one point above prime, and 6.65 percent is NAHB s estimate of the prime rate that would prevail in the long run under neutral Federal Reserve policy. A 9.6 percent gross profit rate for builders and developers, based on the average rate on NAHB Construction Cost surveys conducted between 22 and 215. In the long run, without a competitive return on investment, builders and developers will leave the industry, lots will not be developed, and homes will not be built. A broker s fee of 2.9 percent, based on the nonconstruction cost factor the Census Bureau applies to single-family homes built for sale ( In housing markets, broker s fees are typically set as a fraction of the home s purchase price. Raw land that accounts for 1.6 percent of the price of a home built for sale (Census nonconstruction cost factor). A finished lot that accounts for 21.8 percent of the house price ( NAHB Construction Cost Survey average). Construction costs that account for 56. percent of the house price ( NAHB Construction Cost Survey average). etc (see article for complete details)
17 Government Regulation in the Price of a New Home 17
18 Government Regulation in the Price of a New Home 18
19 Government Regulation in the Price of a New Home 19 Regulation as a Share of the Final Price of a Single-family Detached Home Built for Sale 3.3%* 24.3% 12.7% 9.7% During Construction During Development 14.%* 4.% 7.9% 14.6% 18.8% Lower Quartile Average Upper Quartile * For quartiles, construction and development costs do not sum to the total.
20 Change in Average Regulatory Costs 25.% of House Price in 211; 24.3% in 216 What if applied to average new home prices? % increase
21 How Does the 29.8% Increase in Average Regulatory Cost Compare to Other Changes ? 21 Rising more than twice as fast as average American s ability to pay for it
22 Regulation: Imposed by All Levels of Government Federal, State, Local 22 Can be difficult to tease out which is responsible Constitution generally leaves land use decision to states States usually delegate zoning/permitting authority to local jurisdictions Traditionally, local governments also adopt and enforce building codes However, there has been a trend toward more codes being adopted and effective statewide Federal government is becoming more involved
23 Regulation: Examples of Federal Involvement 23 National Permits for Residential Development Under the 1987 expansion of the Clean Water Act, most construction sites require a permit due to potential for stormwater runoff Stormwater permits are issued by EPA, or by states under programs authorized and monitored by EPA Many development projects also require wetlands permits from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Building Codes / Resilience April 216: DOE, FEMA, EPA propose and lobby for changes in the model International Residential Code (DOE also has a budget to help persuade states to adopt more recent & stringent codes) May 216: White House Conference on Resilient Building Codes May 216: HUD Office of CPD proposed rule to Modernize the Consolidated Planning Process and Increase Resilience HUD also has an Office of Economic Resilience
24 Effect of Regulatory and Other Cost Increases 24 Can make it difficult to build homes Americans can afford Especially at the low end of the market Consider Prices of new homes started in 215 (Survey of Construction, U.S. Census Bureau & HUD) vs. Prices home buyers expect to pay (NAHB 215 survey of recent and prospective home buyers)
25 Eye on Housing Blog Post: June 6, Price of Single-family Homes Started in 215 vs. Price Buyers Expect to Pay Less than $1, 15% $1, - $149,999 6% 16% Price of SF Homes Started What Buyers Expect to Pay $15, - $249,999 $25, - $349,999 18% 29% 28% 28% $35, - $499,999 13% 21% $5, - $999,999 8% 15% Medians $1 million and over 1% 2% Expect to Pay: $219, SF Starts: $298,8 Sources: NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction, U.S. Census Bureau and HUD 215 Home Buyer Preference Survey, NAHB
26 26 Contact Paul Emrath VP-Survey and Housing Policy Research NAHB Economics and Housing Policy Group x8449
27 Thank You
28 Multifamily Construction: How Much Is Too Much? Urban Institute Data Talk Series July 13, 216 Greg Willett Chief Economist RealPage, Inc. 216 RealPage Inc. 28
29 Demand for apartments came roaring back in early 21, with absorption totaling 1.6m units seen since then 4k 3k 262k 2k 1k k -1k -2k -3k annual demand 1Q 3Q 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 1Q4 3Q4 1Q5 3Q5 1Q6 3Q6 1Q7 3Q7 1Q8 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 U.S. data is based on the 1 metros that form the core of MPF Research s coverage 216 RealPage Inc.
30 Tailwinds that support apartment demand are largely solid The housing demand generated by job additions is disproportionately going to rental units, including apartments, for both lifestyle and financial reasons. Demographics say the cycle of strong demand has long legs, assuming overall economic growth is sustained. Former homeowners displaced by the for-sale bust mainly ended up in single-family rentals, rather than apartments. But, current apartment renters are proving slow to opt for purchase. 216 RealPage Inc.
31 More than six years into the cycle, completions are now beginning to catch up with demand 4k 3k 262k 2k 247k 1k k annual completions -1k -2k -3k annual demand 1Q 3Q 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 1Q4 3Q4 1Q5 3Q5 1Q6 3Q6 1Q7 3Q7 1Q8 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 U.S. data is based on the 1 metros that form the core of MPF Research s coverage 216 RealPage Inc.
32 U.S. apartment occupancy has been essentially full for quite some time, and is still near record levels 1% 96.2% 95% 9% overall occupancy 85% 1Q 3Q 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 1Q4 3Q4 1Q5 3Q5 1Q6 3Q6 1Q7 3Q7 1Q8 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 U.S. data is based on the 1 metros that form the core of MPF Research s coverage 216 RealPage Inc.
33 Rent growth remains robust, especially since we re deep into this economic/market performance cycle 12% 1% year-over-year change in same-store effective rents for new leases 8% 6% 4.6% 4% 2% % -2% 19 quarters averaging 2.8% 24 quarters averaging 3.8% -4% -6% 1Q 3Q 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 1Q4 3Q4 1Q5 3Q5 1Q6 3Q6 1Q7 3Q7 1Q8 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 U.S. data is based on the 1 metros that form the core of MPF Research s coverage 216 RealPage Inc.
34 Ongoing construction nearly doubles the long-term norm and well exceeds the last cycle s peak 6k 537k 5k 4k 3k 2k 1k k 1Q 3Q 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 1Q4 3Q4 1Q5 3Q5 1Q6 3Q6 1Q7 3Q7 1Q8 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 U.S. data is based on the 1 metros that form the core of MPF Research s coverage, minus New York 216 RealPage Inc.
35 Starts likely have peaked, but the crest in deliveries is continually being pushed out by construction delays 6k 5k 4k Early 216 did bring the first real signal of a slowdown in starts 537k 3k 2k 1k k 1Q 3Q 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 1Q4 3Q4 1Q5 3Q5 1Q6 3Q6 1Q7 3Q7 1Q8 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 U.S. data is based on the 1 metros that form the core of MPF Research s coverage, minus New York 216 RealPage Inc.
36 Here are some spots where 216 completions should top the 215 volume in a big way Scheduled 216 Deliveries 215 Deliveries Difference San Francisco, CA 7,32 1, % Greenville, SC 2, % Charleston, SC 3, % Los Angeles, CA 13,237 5, % Miami, FL 6,313 2, % Nashville, TN 8,121 4,2 +13% Baltimore, MD 4,14 2,24 +98% San Jose, CA 6,327 3, % Washington, DC 13,735 7, % Philadelphia, PA 5,437 3, % Tampa, FL 5,455 3, % Phoenix, AZ 9,832 6, % 216 RealPage Inc.
37 On the other hand, the surge in completions won t register in a handful of locales Scheduled 216 Deliveries 215 Deliveries Difference Jacksonville, FL 1,143 2,147-47% Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 2,517 4,614-45% Las Vegas, NV 1,822 2,188-17% Boston, MA 5,81 6,677-13% Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,651 2,884-8% San Diego, CA 2,69 2,81-7% Columbus, OH 2,985 2,921 +2% Atlanta, GA 9,8 9,76 +8% Fort Worth, TX 3,397 3,66 +11% 216 RealPage Inc.
38 Most of today s biggest construction centers still have top-tier markets in strong shape Will Units on the Way Damage Rent Growth Anywhere? Units Under Construction Inventory Growth Rate 3-Year Class A Rent Growth Average Current Class A Rent Growth 216 RealPage Inc. Nashville, TN 12, % 4.6% 5.3% Dallas, TX 43, % 4.5% 5.3% Austin, TX 16, % 3.4% 2.8% Charlotte, NC 11, % 4.8% 4.6% Denver-Boulder, CO 19,1 6.4% 6.3% 3.9% Houston, TX 38,63 6.1% 3.1% -.8% Salt Lake City, UT 6,82 5.7% 4.8% 6.5% San Jose, CA 8, % 9.4% 4.7% Raleigh-Durham, NC 7, % 2.7% 3.4% West Palm Beach, FL 5, % 5.8% 6.9% Building volumes clearly have played a part in slowed rent growth in Washington, DC. But that metro now is off the list of the most active construction centers.
39 The urban versus suburban story is a significant element in construction s potential impact on market fundamentals. Urban core submarkets are experiencing annual inventory growth near 5%, on average, more than twice inventory growth that s running around the 2% mark on average in the suburbs. 216 RealPage Inc. 39
40 Will affordability constraints dampen the ability to push rents and, thus, rein in construction activity? 216 RealPage Inc. 4
41 Upgrades in resident quality generally are leaving rentto-income ratios steady so far in this economic cycle 25% 24% U.S. Median Rent-to-Income (left) U.S. Median Income (right) $6, $55, 23% $5, 22% $45, 21% $4, Figures reflect actual lease transaction information for new residents in properties where RealPage technology solutions are in use 216 RealPage Inc.
42 Rent-to-income ratios look very manageable in top-end and middle-tier market-rate properties 32% 3% Median Rent-to-Income (left) Median Income (right) $8, $7, 28% $6, 26% $5, 24% $4, 22% $3, 2% A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D $2, Figures reflect actual lease transaction information for new residents in properties where RealPage technology solutions are in use 216 RealPage Inc.
43 Growing space in pricing power between product niches could have implications for what s next 6% 5% Class A rent premium over Class B 4% 3% 2% Class B rent premium over Class C 1% 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 1Q4 3Q4 1Q5 3Q5 1Q6 3Q6 1Q7 3Q7 1Q8 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q RealPage Inc.
44 With additional transparency into the market, are we smarter and/or more disciplined than we ve been in past cycles? 216 RealPage Inc. 44
45 Thanks! MPF Research, a division of RealPage, Inc. greg.willett@realpage.com 216 RealPage Inc. 45
46 Housing Development in the Post-crisis World July 216 Jamie Woodwell Vice President, Research & Economics Mortgage Bankers Association 46
47 Multifamily Market Conditions 2,5 2, Change in Population Age (1s, Left) Units Under Construction (1s, Right) ,5 7 1, (5) 2 1 (1,) Source: Census 47
48 Changes in Population Age and Single Family Starts Chng in Pop Chng in Pop Housing Starts: Thous.Units Source: Census 48
49 With lack of overbuilding and shifts in demand, rental/multifamily market has tightened faster than single-family/ownership Vacancy rates for single-family ownership (left) and multifamily rental (right) housing Homeowner vacancy rate -- 1-unit buildings (left) Renter vacancy rate unit buildings (right) 49
50 Multifamily apartment property prices have risen much more quickly than single-family home prices 35 Indexed values of U.S. national home prices and rents (Jan 1998 = 1) and of apartment building prices (Dec 2 = 115) and rents Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan J a n Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan J a n Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2 - Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Ja n Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Hom e prices A partment Prices Sources: Case Shiller, Moody s/real Capital Analytics and REIS 5
51 Developers have responded to market conditions, with strong multifamily development and slower single-family 12 Number of units under construction in 1-unit and 5+unit buildings Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2 - Jan Jan Jan Jan Single-family units Multifamily units Source: Census 51
52 Some regions are not building new housing to the degree one would expect 2+unit Construction Starts (1,s) and Rental Vacancy Rate West Midwest South 15 4 Northeast Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Starts 2+Units (left) Rental Vacancy Rat e (right ) Starts 2+Units (left) Rental Vacancy Rat e (right ) Source: Census 52
53 Some regions are not building new housing to the degree one would expect -- 1-unit Construction Starts (1,s) and Homeowner Vacancy Rate West Midwest South Northeast Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 1 Starts -- 1-units (left) Starts -- 1-units (left) Hom eow ner Vacancy Rat e (rig ht ) Hom eow ner Vacancy Rat e (rig ht ) Source: Census 53
54 For a variety of reasons, single-family (and multifamily) construction costs more than it otherwise could Lots Locations Labor Materials Regulation Source: NAHB Source: MBA, NAHB and Wall Street Journal 54
55 Much of the single-family construction infrastructure blew-up during the recession and it is unclear how it will be rebuilt Land aggregators, permitters, pre-developers Developers Labor 1 General Contractors* 14 1 Merchant Builders* 1 ADC lending Move-up equity Mortgage availability Employees (millions, left) # Establishments (1, s, right) Employees (millions, left) # Establishments (1, s, right) Construction Loans as a Percent of Assets at FDIC Insured Institutions by asset size of institution Construction Loans as % of Assets Share of Total Assets 2 Q4 25 Q4 216 Q1 2 Q4 25 Q4 216 Q1 >$1 billion.9% 1.7%.9% 31% 44% 65% $1 - $1 billion 2.8% 3.9% 2.% 36% 3% 17% $1 - $1 billion 3.9% 8.2% 4.5% 16% 13% 11% $1 million - $1 billion 4.4% 9.3% 4.6% 14% 11% 7% <$1 million 3.% 4.8% 2.3% 4% 2% 1% Source: MBA, FDIC and Census * Based on 184 repeat MSAs in County Business Patterns 55
56 Potential for record housing demand over next decade Millions 4 3 Projected Changes in Households, by Age million million million million Using Forecasted Headship Rates Non-Hisp. White Black Asian Other Hispanic +5. million +2.4 million +1.9 million +89k +5.7 million Source: Census and MBA 56
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