Probabilistic maintenance and asset management on moveable storm surge barriers

Transcription

1 Probabilistic maintnanc an asst managmnt on movabl storm surg barrirs Patrick Wbbrs Ministry of Transport, Public Works an Watr Managmnt Civil Enginring Division A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

2 2 Th Nthrlans Blow sa lvl! A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

3 3 To prvnt Th Nthrlans 1953 A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

4 4 To prvnt Nw Orlans 2005 A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

5 5 Dutch Floo Dfns Act Dutch Floo Dfns Act (1996) stats: For vry primary ik ring: Maximum accptabl probability of ovrtopping at th Rottram ara: Probability of ovrtopping shoul b at most: 1/10,000 [-/yar] (onc in 10,000 yars on avrag) This shoul b provn vry 5 yars A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

6 Rliability rquirmnts movabl storm surg barrir 6 Barrir Dik ring 14 1/10000 [-/yar] Lv hight Rottram: M.S.L. + 3,6m Dik ring 20 1/4000 [-/yar] Dik ring 17 1/4000 [-/yar] F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

7 7 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

8 8 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

9 9 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

10 10 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

11 11 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

12 12 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

13 13 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

14 14 Rquirmnts for barrir prformanc Ovrtopping rquirmnts ik rings bhin th barrir Maximum probability of failur closing th barrir on man (whn n) A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

15 Charactristics of movabl storm surg barrirs 15 Low frquncy of closur ( slping giants ) Complx systms of many componnts, incluing complx intractions Hug movabl storm surg barrirs ar on of a kin (uniqu) A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

16 PRA storm surg barrirs 16 How to prov th rliability of th barrir? Prform a PRA / QRA Fault Tr Tchniqu (also Evnt Trs) Spcify Top Evnt:.g. failur of closing th barrir on man (whn n) A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

17 PRA storm surg barrirs 17 Statistics PRA Maslant barrir: approx Basic Evnts approx AND-OR gats approx pags A4 calculation tim aftr ajustmnts: 15 minuts F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

18 PRA storm surg barrirs 18 Th mols ar also containing: Failur of basic componnts (failur rat;maintnanc stratgis, tst an rpair uration, maintnanc intrvals t ctra) Human rror (in opration an in maintnanc) Dpnnt Failur (Common Caus, Common Mo) Unavailability of (sub-)systms by intrnal fir or lightning Softwar Failur A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

19 Probabilistic Maintnanc an Asst Managmnt (PMAM) 19 What is PMAM? Th framwork for th procss to obtain, maintain an optimiz th rliability lvl Dming-circl Principl (plan-o-chck-act) Complt mix of in-pth knowlg of maintnanc, tchnical systms an rliability analysis A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

20 Probabilistic Maintnanc an Asst Managmnt (PMAM) 20 Rliability rquirmnts barrir Dcomposition PRA to lvl of componnts F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

21 Probabilistic Maintnanc an Asst Managmnt (PMAM) Enforc maintnanc input PRA: -Rpair urations (availabl spar parts) -Tsting an inspction intrvals - Writtn an tst rcovry an tst procurs 21 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

22 Probabilistic Maintnanc an Asst Managmnt (PMAM) 22 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

23 Probabilistic Maintnanc an Asst Managmnt (PMAM) 23 F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

24 Probabilistic Maintnanc an Asst Managmnt (PMAM) 24 Prformanc mts th rquirmnts? Rpat PRA calculations with moifi paramtrs F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

25 25 Som conclusions Awarnss of th larg impact of th Floo Dfnc Act incrass. Th rliability rquirmnts for movabl storm surg barrirs, originating from th Law, appar to b strict. (substantial ffort is n). A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

26 26 Futur challngs Furthr rsarch is plann on: Aging an liftim mols in Fault Tr Analysis Dpnnt failur (Common Caus/ Common mo) Intllignt maintnanc stratgis Data managmnt/ tools Softwar rliability Accuracy of atabass an input ata Baysian upating mthos A n a l y s O n r h o u F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr

27 27 Thank you for your attntion! F a a l k a n s i s n i s n s p a r n s a t l a y t s i A n a l y s O n r h o u B h r & OOn n r hr ho uo u i P r s t a t i s Probabilistic Asst Managmnt Cntr