The Market for Foreign Exchange

Transcription

1 5-0 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Seventh Edition EUN / RESNICK Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Market for Foreign Exchange Chapter Objectives: Chapter Five INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT This chapter serves to introduce students to the institutional framework within which exchange rates are determined. Fourth Edition This chapter lays the foundation for much of the discussion throughout the remainder of the text, thus it deserves your careful attention. EUN / RESNICK Chapter Outline Chapter Outline l Function and Structure of the FOREX Market l The Spot Market l The Forward Market l Function and Structure of the FOREX Market n FX Market Participants n Correspondent Banking Relationships l The Spot Market l The Forward Market Chapter Outline Chapter Outline l Function and Structure of the FOREX Market l The Spot Market n n The Bid-Ask Spread n Spot FX Trading n Cross Exchange Rate Quotations n Triangular Arbitrage n Spot Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure l The Forward Market 5-4 l Function and Structure of the FOREX Market l The Spot Market l The Forward Market 5-5 n Forward Rate Quotations n Long and Short Forward Positions n Forward Cross-Exchange Rates n FX Swap Transactions n Forward Premium 1

2 The Function and Structure of the FOREX Market l FOREX Market Participants l Correspondent Banking Relationships FOREX Market Participants l The FOREX market is a two-tiered OTC market: n Interbank Market (Wholesale) u About 700 banks worldwide stand ready to make a market in FOReign EXchange (max active) u Other FIs now make up 53% of the market (HFs, ) u There are FX brokers who match buy and sell orders but do not carry inventory and FX specialists (dwindling importance). n Client Market (Retail: 9% of total; 14% in 04 & 10; 18% in 07) l Market participants include international banks, their customers, nonbank dealers, forex brokers (e.g., ICAP), and central banks FOREX Market Participants FOREX Market Structure 5-8 l OTC: n Main center is UK London (41% of turnover in 2013) u + NY (19%), Tokyo (6%), S pore (6%), HK (5%), Zurich (4%) n Tight infrastructure (communication, netting, clearing) l Compartments 5-9 n Spot = 38% of turnover (up 1% from 2010) n Outright Forwards = 13% of turnover (stable since 2010) n FX swaps = 42% of turnover (down 14% from 2007) l Banks < 39%, Other FIs < 53%, Retail < 9% Circadian Rhythms of the FX Market Plumbing of the Interbank Market :00 10 am in Tokyo :00 Lunch hour in Tokyo 5:00 Europe coming in Electronic Conversations per Hour 7:00 9:00 Asia going out average 11:00 Lunch hour in London peak 1:00 Americas coming in 15:00 5:00 London going out 19:00 9:00 New Zealand coming in 11:00 6 pm in NY 5-11 $- example (USD involved in 87% of transactions) 2

3 Foreign Exchange Settlement Types of Risks in FX Transactions Bank A BOJ-NET Bank B s nostro bank (Japan) A Sells en to B B pays A in Can $ Bank B LVTS Bank A s nostro bank (Canada) l Banker risk n Bank where settlement account is held becomes insolvent l Credit risk n Counterparty will not settle (now or later) u Liquidity & Replacement risk ( not now but later ) u Principal risk l Herstatt risk = FX settlement risk = principal risk = type of credit risk l Operational risk l Systemic risk = risk of domino effect Plumbing /Back-office issues CLS Bank l International commercial banks communicate/settle/clear: n SWIFT: Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunic. u Dec. 2013: 5,732 members & sub-members, 21.5m msgs/day (up) n CLS Bank: Continuous Linked Settlement eliminates settlement risk u Basic idea: net out payments, cut gross by 95+% for 17 currencies u Typical day (J14): users, 1.2m payment instructions, gross $5.3trn u Reduces actual payments (in practice: net as small as 0.6% of gross) n ECHO: the precursor; Exchange Clearing HOuse Limited, the first global clearinghouse for settling interbank FOREX transactions n Clearing: CHIPS: Clearing House Interbank Payments System ($leg) TARGET (Euro leg), LVTS (Canada), BOJ-NET, etc. l Payments: through network of correspondent banks l Plus (in practice): minimizes Herstatt risk l Minuses (in theory): systemic risk (operational risk, concentration to the 65 members) + liquidity risk (intraday payments are the norm for settlement members) 5-15 Correspondent Banking Relationships l Large commercial banks maintain demand deposit accounts with one another which facilitates the efficient functioning of the forex market: n Nostro ( on us ) / vostro ( on you ) accounts n In practice, not all forex banks must have correspondent accounts u Some large traders are non-financial institutions u What matters is that they have a standing arrangement with a bank that has a network of correspondent banks. Correspondent Banking Relationships Bank A $200 Bank B London 100 NYC Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities deposit at B 300m B s Deposit $1,000m $ deposit at A $1000m A s Deposit 300m 400m $1,200m $1200m 400m $ deposit at B $800m B s Deposit 200m deposit at A 200m A s Deposit $800m $600m 100m 100m $600m Other Assets 600m Other L&E 600m Other Assets $800m Other L&E $800m Total Assets 1,300m Total L&E 1,300m Total Assets $2,200m Total L&E $2,200m

4 l l The Bid-Ask Spread l Spot FX trading l Cross Rates The Spot Market l Direct quotation n # of local currency units per 1 unit of foreign currency n Example: in New York, the U.S. dollar equivalent of FX n e.g. a Japanese Yen is worth about a penny l Indirect Quotation n # of units of foreign currency per 1 unit of local currency n Example: in NY, the price of 1 US$ in foreign currency n e.g. you get 100 yen to the dollar l See the insert card from your textbook USD USD Direct quote for the pound sterling in New York: 1 = $ USD Indirect quote for the pound in New York:.5242 = $1 USD Note that the direct quote is the reciprocal of the indirect quote: =

5 5-24 USD Note also that the direct quote in New York is the indirect quote in. London, and vice-versa 5-25 : US$/FX l American terms n # of $ per 1 unit of foreign currency n Idea: direct quote in NY, hence American n e.g. a Japanese Yen is worth about a penny n Convention: interbank quotes for the,, A$, NZ$; also, currency option (PHLX, CME) & futures (CME) quotes l European terms n # of units of foreign currency per 1 $ n In NY, the price of a U.S. dollar in the foreign currency n e.g. you get about 100 yen to the dollar USD USD American quote for British pound is: 1 = $ USD European quote for British pound is:.5242 = $1 USD Note that the American quote = reciprocal of the European quote: =

6 The Bid-Ask Spread The Bid-Ask Spread l The bid price is the price a dealer is willing to pay you for something. l The ask price is the amount the dealer wants you to pay for the thing. l The bid-ask spread is the difference between the bid and ask prices. l Example: the Yen is quoted at n Units =? ; Total bill to buy $10m =? ; Mid-point =? 5-30 l A dealer could quote n bid price of $ per n ask price of $ per l While there are a variety of ways to quote that, the bid-ask spread represents the dealer s expected. Ask Price Bid Price Percent Spread = 100 Ask Price $ $ n Typical % B-A spread = is less than 5 pips for G10 x currencies 100 $ big figure USD Bank Quotations The Bid-Ask Spread small American Terms figure European Terms Bid Ask Bid Ask Pounds A dealer pricing pounds in terms of dollars would likely quote these prices as (Anyone trading $10m knows the big figure ) The percentage spread in this case is / = 0.025% USD Bank Quotations The Bid-Ask Spread American Terms European Terms Bid Ask Bid Ask Pounds Notice that the reciprocal of the S($/ ) bid is the S( /$) ask $1.00 = 1.00 $ Spot FX trading l In the interbank market, a typical trade size may be about USD10 million. l The stakes are high, the long term is about 10 l Platforms: 85+% is anonymous limit B-A orders via n Reuters: main platform for $/ u + C$ & A$ + Scandinavian + Chinese Renminbi (since 2006) n EBS (Electronic Brokerage System) u dominates the rest, incl. $/ and $/ (source: Fed, Norges Bank) n <10% voice brokers in illiquid curr. (rest is Reuters chats) n Note: traders can get non-binding quotes (BB, Reuters) 5-35 Cross Rates l Suppose that S($/ ) = 1.5 n i.e. $1 = l and that S( / ) = 150 n i.e. 1 = 150 l What must the $/ cross rate be? $ $ since =, $1.5 1 $1 = S($/ ) =.01or $1 =

7 Cross Rates Triangular Arbitrage l Quote convention? n Basic principle: quote in terms of the main currency u The same convention explains why most currencies are quoted in European terms against the U.S. dollar n Example: 120 Yen / 1 USD u What if the dollar is not involved? n If importance of the currencies differ: l Same idea: # minor currency / unit of the major currency n If two small currencies are involved: l traders have been known to get confused did you just quote me the bid or the offer price? Suppose we observe these banks posting these exchange rates. First calculate any implied cross rate to see if an arbitrage exists. Barclays S( /$)=120 $ Credit Lyonnais S($/ )=2 Credit Agricole S( / )= Triangular Arbitrage Triangular Arbitrage The implied S( / ) cross rate is S( / ) = x $2 $2 240 = Credit Agricole has posted a quote of S( / )=245, so there is an arbitrage opportunity. $ Barclays S( /$)=120 Credit Lyonnais S($/ )=2 Credit Agricole S( / )=245 As easy as 1 2 3: 1. Sell the $ for, 2. Sell the for, 3. Sell the for $ $ Barclays Credit Lyonnais S( /$)= S($/ )=2 2 Credit Agricole S( / )=245 But, how can we make money? Sell the to 245; buy implicit Triangular Arbitrage Triangular Arbitrage l Implementation in practice n Risks? u Yes, though small u Why? physically impossible to execute all three transactions simultaneously -> quotes could change before the deal is set n Example of triangular arb with B-A spreads u Q5 in PS#1 Sell $200,000 for at S($/ ) = 2 receive 100,000 Sell these 100,000 for at S( / ) = 245 receive 24,500,000 Sell 24,500,000 for $ at S( /$) = 120 receive $204,167 per round trip = $ 204,167 - $200,000 = $4,

8 Spot Foreign Exchange Microstructure l Market Microstructure refers to the mechanics of how a marketplace operates. l Bid-Ask spreads in the spot FX market: n increase with FX exchange rate volatility and n decrease with dealer competition. n example of cross rates and triangular arb with B-A s l Private information (about what?) is an important determinant of spot exchange rates. The Forward Market l Forward Rate Quotations l Long and Short Forward Positions l Forward Cross Exchange Rates n Basic idea similar to spot cross rates n Numerical example with bid-ask prices (as time allows) l FX Swap Transactions l Forward Premium The Forward Market Forward Rate Quotations l An (outright) forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset (e.g., a foreign currency) in the future at a price agreed upon today: n Similar in all respects to a spot contract; u The only difference is the delivery date. n Analogy: ordering an out-of-stock textbook=fwd contract l Revised definition? Not so fast! n 2010: BIS included cash-settled forwards (NDF), CFDs n 2012: U.S. Treasury sharply differentiates (Dodd-Frank) l The forward market for FOREX involves agreements to buy and sell foreign currencies in the future at prices agreed upon today. l Bank quotes (direct or indirect, American or European) are readily available for forward contracts for 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 month maturities n Longer maturities readily available for G10 currencies l Longer-term swaps are available Forward Rate Quotations USD Do market participants expect that the pound will be worth less in dollars in six months? l Consider the example from above: for British pounds, the spot rate is $ = 1.00 while the 180-day forward rate is $ = 1.00 l What s up with that? u Cost of carry? u or Expectations?

9 Long and Short Forward Positions Payoff Profiles l If you have agreed to sell anything (spot or forward), you are short. l If you have agreed to buy anything (forward or spot), you are long. l If you have agreed to sell forex forward, you are short. l If you have agreed to buy forex forward, you are long If you agree to sell anything in the future at a set price and the spot price later falls then you gain. F 180 ($/ ) = S 180 ($/ ) If you agree to sell anything in the future at a set price and the spot price later rises then you lose. Short fwd Yen position Payoff Profiles Payoff Profiles Short fwd Yen position Whether the payoff profile slopes up or down depends 0 S 180 ( /$) upon whether you use the direct F 180 ( /$) = 105 or indirect quote: -F 180 ( /$) 5-50 F 180 ( /$) = 105 or F 180 ($/ ) = F 180 ( /$) 5-51 F 180 ( /$) = 105 short position S 180 ( /$) When the short entered into this forward contract, he agreed to sell in 180 days at F 180 ( /$) = 105 Payoff Profiles Payoff Profiles 15 short position F 180 ( /$) Since this is a zero-sum game, the long position payoff is the opposite of the short. short position F 180 ( /$) = 105 S 180 ( /$) 0 F 180 ( /$) = 105 S 180 ( /$) -F 180 ( /$) 5-52 If, in 180 days, S 180 ( /$) = 120, the short will make a by buying at S 180 ( /$) = 120 and delivering at F 180 ( /$) = F 180 ( /$) 5-53 Long position 9

10 Payoff Profiles Forward Cross Exchange Rates -F 180 ( /$) The long in this forward contract agreed to BUY in 180 days at F 180 ( /$) = 105 If, in 180 days, S 180 ( /$) = 120, the long will lose by having to buy at S 180 ( /$) = 120 and delivering at F 180 ( /$) = F 180 ( /$) = 105 S 180 ( /$) Long position l It s just a delayed version of the spot cross rate example discussed above. l In generic terms FN ($/ k) FN ( j / k) = F ($/ j) and FN ($/ j) FN ( k / j) = F ($/ k) 5-55 N N Forward Cross Exchange Rates Cross Quotes & Triangular Arbitrage Argentina (Peso) Australia (Dollar) Brazil (Real) Britain (Pound) Month Forward Months Forward Months Forward Canada (Dollar) Month Forward Months Forward Months Forward The forward pound-canadian dollar cross rate GBP1.00 USD1.00 USD CAD = GBP1.00 CAD Practical example You observe the following 1-months forward rates: SF in Zurich: SF/1$ in NY: $/1 a. As a banker in London, you would like to quote a cross-rate for the SF (i.e., # /1SF). If you expected to be the sole banker in the world quoting this forward cross-rate, what would your quote be? b. In reality, you have 10 competitors who stand ready to quote this cross rate. Suppose that all those banks have, like yours, operating costs of approximately 0.05% of volume. Would this affect your answer? Currency Symbols FX SWAPS l In addition to the familiar currency symbols (e.g.,,, $) there are three-letter codes for all currencies. It is a long list, but selected codes include: CHF Swiss francs GBP British pound ZAR South African rand CAD Canadian dollar JPY Japanese yen l A swap is an agreement to provide a counterparty with something that it wants in exchange for something that you want. l Swap transactions (FX swaps) make up about 41 percent of $4 trn interbank FX trading, whereas outright forwards account for just 12 percent. n FX swaps vs. Currency Swaps n Spot sale/fwd purchase (or vice-versa) vs. Interest-rate & currency swap

11 Forward Premium l Swap rate = forward - spot n Yields a percentage forward premium or discount n This premium is related to the interest rate differential l For example, suppose the is trading spot at S($/ ) =.5235 and forward at F 180 ($/ ) =.5307 n The annual percentage forward premium is given by: F ($/ , v$ = = f ) S($/ ) = S($/ ) Outright forward vs. swap rate l Forward quotes (OTC) u outright forward vs. swap rate (forward premium) l spot $ / 1 l swap rate l outright forward $ / 1 u outright forward vs. swap rate (forward discount) l spot $ / 1 l swap rate l outright forward $ / Outright forward vs. swap rate Outright forward vs. swap rate l Swap rate & B-A spread u observation l subtract swap if discount, add if premium l why? (size of B-A spread) u explanations l risk? l liquidity (market depth)? l others? l Annualizing the forward premium/discount u Example: spot $ / 1 3-month outright forward $ / 1 u Swap rate l f-s = $ / 1 u Percentage premium/discount or discount of 45 points l (f-s)/s = / or -0.28% u Annualized percentage premium/discount l [(f-s)/s]*4 = or -1.11% Summary Practice Problem l Spot rate quotations n Direct and indirect quotes n Bid and ask prices l Cross Rates n Triangular arbitrage l Forward Rate Quotations n Forward premium (discount) n Forward points The current spot exchange rate is $1.55/ and the threemonth forward rate is $1.50/. Based on your analysis of the exchange rate, you are confident that the spot exchange rate will be $1.52/ in three months. Assume that you would like to buy or sell 1,000,000. a. How can you speculate in the forward market? What is the expected dollar from speculation? b. What would be your speculative in dollar terms if the spot exchange rate actually turns out to be $1.46/? c. Graph your results

12 Solution Solution a. If you believe the spot exchange rate will be $1.52/ in three months, you should buy 1,000,000 forward for $1.50/. Your expected will be: $20,000 = 1,000,000 ($1.52 $1.50) Question: discuss shorting the pound at 1.55 as an alternative? b. If the spot exchange rate actually turns out to be $1.46/ in three months, your from the long position will be: $40,000 = 1,000,000 ($1.46 $1.50) 5-66 $20k 0 S 90 ($/ ) F 90 ($/ ) = 1.50 $40k 5-67 End Chapter Five