Monthly Statistics Package September 2016

Transcription

1 Vancouver Island Real Estate Board Monthly Statistics Package September 2016

2 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 3, 2016 Home Sellers Still in the Driver s Seat NANAIMO, BC Sales of single-family homes in September were lower than in August but rose significantly over September In September 2016, 531 single-family homes sold on the MLS System compared to 431 last September, an increase of 23 per cent. Month over month, sales decreased by 14 per cent from August, which saw 623 unit sales. Inventory also dropped to a new historic low, dipping to 1,265, a nine per cent decrease from the previous month and down 40 per cent from one year ago. The last time inventory was this low occurred in 2005 when the supply of single-family homes for sale dropped to 1,629 units. VIREB began tracking inventory levels in Robust sales in the VIREB area and throughout much of B.C. are being driven by a combination of economic factors that are creating a sound foundation for housing sales. This is the third year that British Columbia s GDP and employment growth have been above three per cent, and GDP is currently tracking at 3.5 per cent, says Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. Year-over-year retail sales are at six per cent, so consumer confidence is obviously high. Although a moderating trend in activity and prices is occurring in the Vancouver market, that slowdown is not affecting the VIREB area thus far. Prices in Vancouver and on the Lower Mainland have not dropped by much, but sales have taken a hit. This moderation might have been accelerated slightly by the Foreign Buyer Tax introduced at the beginning of August, but it is still too early to say whether this is a temporary cooling in sales activity or indicative of a larger trend. However, foreign buyers are not turning to Vancouver Island in lieu of the Lower Mainland and are not the impetus behind VIREB s robust housing market. As shown in our 2015 Buyer Profile, 54 per cent of purchasers were from Vancouver Island, 22 per cent from elsewhere in B.C., 22 per cent from elsewhere in Canada, and only two per cent were international buyers. Those demographics have likely not changed in Limited inventory continues to be the major challenge for buyers and REALTORS in the VIREB area, with agents fielding multiple offers on a regular basis. Margo Hoffman, 2016 VIREB President, is encouraging potential home sellers to take advantage of these market conditions. Sellers are in the driver s seat right now, and sales would be higher if there were more homes available, says Hoffman. But consumers need to realize that sellers markets don t last forever, so if you re thinking of putting your home on the market, now is the time. Hoffman adds that in a competitive housing market, connecting with a local REALTOR is crucial. They have specialized knowledge of their communities and are equipped with sales tools, such as custom analytics, to help you develop a winning strategy for buying or selling a home. In September 2016, the benchmark price of a single-family home in the VIREB area was $389,200, up 14 per cent from one year ago. Prices increased in every zone, ranging from 11 per cent in Campbell River to 17 per cent in Nanaimo and the Parksville-Qualicum area. As in August, the benchmark price of an apartment rose approximately 15 per cent boardwide, with Duncan and Parksville-Qualicum reporting 21 and 29 per cent increases, respectively. The townhouse market also strengthened, posting an 11 per cent increase board-wide. The September 2016 benchmark price of a single-family home in the Campbell River area was $305,200, an increase of per cent over September In the Comox Valley, the benchmark price was $385,200, up 13 per cent from Duncan reported a benchmark price of $340,500, an increase of per cent compared to September Nanaimo s benchmark price rose per cent to $420,500 while the Parksville-Qualicum area saw its benchmark price rise by per cent to $447,400. The price of a benchmark home in Port Alberni hit $215,500, up 13 per cent from one year ago. 30

3 VIREB represents around 1,000 REALTOR members in approximately 90 member offices on Vancouver Island (north of Victoria). VIREB cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate the actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Trademarks are owned or controlled by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify real estate professionals who are members of CREA (REALTOR ) and/or the quality of services they provide (MLS ). Visit our website for updated information at Contact: Margo Hoffman, President: Janice Stromar, President-Elect: Jason Finlayson, Past President: Darrell Paysen, Manager, Member Services: Or, for further localized comments, please contact: Campbell River: Cholene Begin Comox Valley: Neil Woodrow Cowichan Valley: Jason Finlayson Nanaimo: Janice Stromar Kaye Broens Parksville-Qualicum: Margo Hoffman Port Alberni-West Coast: Sandy Rantz MLS HPI Media Contact Communications Department Vancouver Island Real Estate Board communications@vireb.com

4 Backgrounder About the MLS Home Price Index On November 1 st, VIREB adopted the MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI) as a new method of reporting price trends in the market. The MLS HPI determines the value for a typical benchmark home, which is a notional dwelling that shares a specific set of qualitative and quantitative attributes. Benchmark prices tend to be slightly lower than corresponding medians and averages The MLS HPI, based on the information entered into the MLS System at the time of sale, is the best and purest way of determining price trends in the housing market. It was pioneered by six founding partners: the real estate boards of Calgary, Fraser Valley, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, and the Canadian Real Estate Association. In 2009, the partners contracted with Altus Group to develop the MLS HPI, which subsequently launched in January Others have since joined the program, with 10 partners and growing. Why an MLS Home Price Index? The MLS HPI captures and analyzes Canadian home prices based on both quantitative and qualitative housing features. Quantitative features captured by the index are, for example, number of rooms and bathrooms, living area above ground and the age of the home. Qualitative features include finished basement, if the home is new or resale, and the home s proximity to shopping, schools, transportation, hospitals and so on. The MLS HPI gauges Vancouver Island prices relative to January 2005, and tracks price trends for benchmark housing types: Single-family homes o One-storey o Two-storey Townhouses Condominium apartments The complete methodology is available at Why Does It Matter? Average and median home prices are often misinterpreted, are affected by change in the mix of homes sold, and can swing dramatically from month to month (based on the types and prices of properties that sold in a given month). The MLS HPI overcomes these shortcomings. Compared to all other Canadian home price measures, the MLS HPI identifies turning points sooner, is the most current, and is the most detailed and accurate gauge for Canadian home prices. How to Read the Tables Benchmark Price: Estimated sale price of a benchmark property. Benchmarks represent a typical property in each market. Price Index: Index numbers estimate the percentage change in price on typical and constant quality properties over time. All figures are based on past sales. In January 2005, all indices are set to 100 Month/Year change %: Percentage change of index over a period of (x) month(s) year.

5 Single-Family Home Benchmark Price

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7 Apartment Benchmark Price

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9 Townhouse Benchmark Price

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11 HPI Data

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13 MLS Sales Summary Copies of archived Statistics are available at our website. Go to and under Resources in the top menu, choose Market Statistics. You are encouraged to contact any of the Directors of the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board to obtain local comments.

14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Average, Median, and Benchmark Price (HPI) Comparisons $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 VIREB Board Area MLS Sales Single Family - Average, Median and Home Price Index Average Sale Price Median HPI Copyright 2016 VIREB $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 VIREB Board Area MLS Sales Condo (Apt) Average, Median and Home Price Index Average Sale Price Median HPI Copyright 2016 VIREB VIREB Board Area MLS Sales Condo (Twnhse) - Average, Median and Home Price Index $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Average Sale Price Median HPI Copyright 2016 VIREB

15 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Single-Family - Active Listings / Listings and Sales VIREB Board Area - Condo (Twnhse) Active MLS Listings Acti Copyright 2016 VIREB VIREB Board Area - Total Condo (Twnhse) New MLS Listings and Sales Listed Sold Copyright 2016 VIREB