Joined at the hip: the US-China clean energy relationship

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1 Joined at the hip: the US-China clean energy relationship Center for Strategic & International Studies, Washington DC Nathaniel Bullard Bloomberg New Energy Finance, October 2010

2 Copyright and disclaimer This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg New Energy Finance accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Bloomberg New Energy Finance does not consider itself to undertake Regulated Activities as defined in Section 22 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and is not registered with the Financial Services Authority of the UK. 2 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

3 US and China power production, e (GWh) China US 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Coal Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables 5% annual electricity growth ,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Coal Natural gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Other renewables 1% annual electricity growth Note: For US, coal includes a small but growing amount of new CCS generation from Assumes a USD 6.90mmbtu natural gas price A lower natural gas price would result in less coal generation and more natural gas generation. 3 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

4 Clean energy asset finance new build in US and China, 2004 Q (USD bn) Annual investment Cumulative investment since Q1 only United States China United States Cumulative China Cumulative 0 Note: All figures are grossed and buffered to include estimates for undisclosed and unknown deals 4 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

5 Top 10 Tier 1 c-si cell manufacturers and top 15 wind turbine manufacturers, end-2009 Top 10 PV cell manufacturers, 2009 Top 15 wind turbine producers, 2009 Name (Country) Current capacity (MW) Name (Country) Production (GW) Suntech (China) 1,090 Q-Cells (Germany) 1,000 JA Solar (China) 800 SolarWorld (Germany) 710 Sharp (Japan) 695 Trina Solar (China) 600 Yingli (China) 600 Canadian Solar (China) 420 SunPower (US) 414 Solarfun (China) 360 Vestas (Denmark) 6.3 GE Wind (US) 5.8 Sinovel (China) 5.8 Gamesa (Spain) 4.4 Suzlon (India) 3.5 Goldwind (China) 3.4 Enercon (Germany) 3.3 Dongfang (China) 3.3 Repower (Germany) 2.9 Nordex (Germany) 2.5 Acciona (Spain) 2.5 Siemens (Germany) 2.2 Mitsubishi (Japan) 1.6 XEMC (China) 1.2 Clipper (US) US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

6 California Solar Initiative photovoltaic module suppliers by country of corporate headquarters, Q Q (% of total) 100% 90% 80% 1% 7% 10% 5% 8% 21% 12% 4% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 6% 2% 6% 7% 3% 13% 12% 4% 8% 14% 10% 5% 4% 6% 2% 9% 5% 2% 6% 3% 5% 1% 13% 5% 2% 8% 70% 60% 41% 26% 35% 42% 41% 35% 19% 33% 30% 29% 26% 20% 29% 50% 40% 30% 18% 10% 3% 7% 18% 12% 29% 17% 16% 28% 39% 41% 29% 20% 10% 22% 37% 42% 35% 28% 37% 33% 30% 36% 26% 14% 17% 25% 0% Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 US China Japan Germany UK Canada Other Europe Other Asia, CSI 6 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

7 US dollar to Chinese renminbi, January 2005 October 2010 Source: Bloomberg 7 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

8 US dollar to euro, January 2005 October 2010 Source: Bloomberg 8 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

9 China Development Bank loans to clean energy manufacturers, April-September 2010 (USD m) $11,400m $13,300m Suntech, $7,300m Total = $33bn LDK Solar, $8,900m Trina Solar, $4,400m Goldwind, $6,000m Yingli Green Energy, $5,300m JA Solar, $4,400m April May June July September Note: PV manufacturing companies encompasses raw material, wafer and module producers 9 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

10 Value breakdown of PV modules from leading Chinese and US manufacturers, mid-2010 Value breakdown by company country of origin, Suntech module Value breakdown by manufacturing country of origin, SunPower module Total 18.3% $81.7% % Content Total 17.5% 48.7% 33.8% % Content Module Assembly $0.58/W Gross Margin 11% Module Assembly $0.68/W Gross Margin 14% Cell $0.43/W 6% Cell $0.46/W 7% Ingot Wafer $0.54/W 21% Ingot & Wafer $0.52/W 15% Polysilicon $0.35/W 44% Polysilicon $0.35/W 45% Overseas China Korea Phillippines US Note: Based on where the product is manufactured. Polysilicon production for Suntech is provided by US-based MEMC. Note: Based on where the product is manufactured. Polysilicon from Korean DC Chemical, wafers by a Philippines-based First Philec-SunPower JV, cells in a Philippines SunPower factory, and module assembly in Mexico or Poland. 10 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

11 Value breakdown of wind project using equipment from leading US and Chinese manufacturers, mid-2010 Value breakdown by company country of origin, GE 1.5MW turbine installed in China Value breakdown by company country of origin, Sinovel 3MW turbine installed in US Total 35% 57% 8% Total 10% 53% 37% Others 4% 17% Others 4% 17% Control System 5% Control System 5% Power Converter 5% Power Converter 5% Main Bearings 3% Main Bearings 3% Generator 3% Generator 3% Gearbox 13% Gearbox 13% Blades 23% Blades 23% Tower & Foundation 27% Tower & Foundation 27% International China US International China US Note: Based on the country of origin for the company producing the product, not necessarily where the product was produced. 11 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

12 Estimation of value creation for a hypothetical Texas wind farm (USD 000/MW) Bearings Control systems Driveshaft, Gearbox, Generator Tower Rotor, nacelle, blade Turbine assembly Transport Construction & BOP Financing O&M Total International China US Source: CSI, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Assumed to be using 3MW turbine from China, 75%/25% China/US financing, blades may end up being produced in the US. 12 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

13 VC/PE investment in US and China PV manufacturing companies, 2004 Q (USD m) $1,707 $1,186 $733 $700 $518 $45 $105 $82 $223 $41 $150 $56 $ Q1-Q3 US China Note: PV manufacturing companies encompasses raw material, wafer and module producers 13 US-China clean energy: joined at the hip, 26 October 2010

14 Services: Joined at the hip: the US-China clean energy relationship Nathaniel Bullard Lead Analyst, North American Solar Industry Intelligence: Data & Analytics Insight: Research & Analysis Forecasting: Carbon & Global Energy Custom & Consortium Research News & Commentary Executive Briefings & Workshops Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your decisions in clean energy and the carbon markets

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