Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility in India
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1 Iriol Jourl of Ecoomics d Ficil Issus Vol. 3, No. 1, 213, pp ISSN: Alysis of Mcrocoomic Drmis of Exchg R Voliliy i Idi Ai Mirchdi AMITY Uivrsiy, Dubi, Uid Arb Emirs. Mob: Emil: imirchdi4@gmil.com ABSTRACT: Th Forig Exchg Mrk i Idi hs udrgo subsil chgs ovr ls dcd. I is impriv by h xcssiv voliliy of Idi Rup cusig is dprciio gis mjor domiig currcis i iriol mrk. This rsrch hs b crrid ou i ordr o ivsig vrious mcrocoomic vribls ldig o cu vriios i h xchg r of currcy. A mp hs b md o rviw h probbl rsos for h dprciio of h Rup d lys diffr mcrocoomic drmis h hv impc o h voliliy of xchg r d hir x of corrlio wih h sm. Kywords: Exchg R; Iflio; Irs R; Forig Exchg Mrk; Curr Accou; Exchg R Voliliy; Iriol Trd. JEL Clssificios: F31; F41 1. Iroducio Idi hs wissd rc pisod of xcssiv voliliy ldig o sudd d shrp dprciio of Idi Rup gis US Dollr. I Ju 212, h Idi Rup brchd h 57 pr Dollr mrk & rchd o is ll-im low gis Dollr. Iriol rd d ivsm dcisios bcom mor difficul du o volil xchg r bcus voliliy icrss xchg r risk. If h pricips i iriol rd r wr bou xchg r risks, hy my prfr o swich o domsic civiis whr profis r rlivly lss ucri rhr h coiuig rdig i forig mrks. Alrivly, iriol rdrs my mp o us forwrd forig xchg mrks i ordr o hdg gis y possibl losss. Idi hs mbrkd o sris of srucurl rforms i h forig xchg mrk sic 199s. Exchg r policy hs b volvd ovr im i li wih h grdul opig up of h coomy s pr of h brodr srgy of mcrocoomic rforms. O of h impor rforms ws wo sp dowwrd djusm of Idi Rup i ordr o isll ivsors cofidc & boos domsic compiivss. Idi Rup ws dvlud wo ims i July 1991 i ordr o sbiliz h forig xchg mrk. Ths wr dcisiv sps o d pggd xchg r rgim. Durig his r mos of h cdmi & coomiss rgud for sblishm of Flxibl Exchg R rgim. Thr wr wo rgums i h fvour of Flxibl Exchg R Sysm. Th firs rgum is rld o h compiiv posiio of coury i h iriol mrk. For.g. if pric lvl i coury riss, i will mk is producs & srvics ucompiiv i iriol mrk d h blc of pyms will suffr from dfici. I ordr o kp quilibrium i h blc of pyms, h coury my us vrious mcrocoomic policis o rduc h pric lvl, d bcus prics r sicky-dowwrds his my ld o piful djusm d my rsul i wlfr losss. Thrfor i is br, o lv h xchg r o dprci o comps for h ris i pric lvl d o kp h compiiv posiio of h coury wihou d o udrgo such log d piful djusm. Th scod rgum of h propos of flxibl xchg rs is buil upo h ssumpio h h sbilizig bhviour of spculors will mk xchg rs rlivly sbl comprd o fixd rs. For isc, if currcy dprcis from is log ru vlu, spculors would kow h h mov is mporry, hc, would buy h currcy sic i is xpcd o pprci i h fuur. Thrfor, hy sbiliz h xchg rs' cul movms. 172
2 Alysis of Mcrocoomic Drmis of Exchg R Voliliy i Idi Th flxibl xchg r sysm lso procs coury from dvrs xrl shocks. Udr h Bro Woods sysm dcrs i h dmd for h xpors of coury would cus domsic corcio i his coury. Howvr, udr flxibl xchg r sysm h xchg r would djus o comps for h shock, miiig quilibrium i h curr ccou d compiivss d subsquly h lvl of dmd. This mri of floig xchg r rgim lso givs h coury h opporuiy o xr idpd mory policy. Howvr o of h mos corovrsil furs of Flxibl Exchg R sysm is h high voliliy of Exchg r. Voliliy rprss h dgr or h x o which o vribl chgs ovr im priod. Th lrgr h mgiud of vribl chg, or h mor quickly i chgs ovr im, h mor volil i is. This ppr rviws h probbl rsos for his dprciio of h Rup d h oulook for h sm. Th sudy hs b dividd io wo prs. Th firs pr dscribs mjor coomic vribls h hv dirc or idirc impc o xchg r voliliy whil scod pr lyss h corrlio of vrious mcrocoomic vribls wih h xchg r of coury. 2. Lirur Rviw Mos prvious rsrchs bou h bhviour of xchg rs hv b dvod o xpli d forcs xchg r lvls d o hir voliliy. Svrl srucurl modls hv b suggsd o cpur h pr of xchg rs, such s mory xchg r modls d porfolio blc modls. Howvr, o of hs modls ws bl o ouprform iv rdom wlk modl i forcsig i smpl xchg r (s, for isc, Ms d Rogoff, 1983). Simo (1997) foud h xchg r d curr ccou hv dirc d posiiv rlioship wih iflio d boh xchg r d curr ccou r h ky fcors h bdly ffc h smll coomis. Edwrds () ivsigd h dymic ssociio bw xchg r rgims, cpil flows d currcy criss i mrgig coomis. Th sudy drws o lssos lrd durig h 199s, d dls wih som of h mos impor policy corovrsis h mrgd fr h Mxic, Es Asi, Russi d Brzili criss. H cocluds h udr h ppropri codiios d policis, floig xchg rs c b ffciv d ffici. Tylor (21) discusss h filur of librlisd policis i Argi. H sys h Argi hs fild i miiig h librlisd policis bou cpil flows d firm currcy. Argi hd i-iflio progrm bsd o frzig h xchg r i h rly 199s. This ms h h moy supply wihi h coury d h supply of crdi o firms r id dircly o iriol rsrvs. So if h coury gs cpil iflows, h supply of moy d crdi icrss, ldig o subsil icrs i domsic prics. Hrbrgr (23) sudid h impc of coomic growh o rl xchg r. H foud h hr is o sysmic cocio bw coomic growh d rl xchg r. Husi l. (24) foud i hir sudy h lil ccss o iriol cpil is vilbl for h wkr d lss dvlopd couris, so low r of iflio d highr lvl of durbiliy is ssocid wih fixd xchg r rgim i hos couris. Howvr, hy foud o robus rlioship bw coomic prformc d xchg r rgim i h dvlopig coomis. Thy lso foud h dvcd coomis my xpric durbl d slighly highr lvl of growh r wihou highr lvl of iflio i flxibl xchg r rgim. Du d S (26) xmi h ircios bw h rl xchg r, lvl of cpil flows, voliliy of flows, fiscl d mory policy idicors d h curr ccou surplus for Idi coomy for h priod 1993Q2 o 24Q1. Th simios idic h h vribls r coigrd d ch Grgr cuss o h rl xchg r. 3. Rsrch Mhods This rsrch hs b crrid ou i ordr o ivsig h impc of vrious mcrocoomic vribls o h voliliy of forig xchg r. Th rsrch is bsd o scodry d, o compil h rpor wih som vribls wy yrs ul d for h priod of 1991 o 2 wr collcd. Th rlioship bw Exchg r d Mcro-coomic vribls such s, irs r, Blc of rd, Iflio r, Forig Dirc Ivsm, GDP c. hv b lyzd wih h hlp of sisicl ool. 173
3 Iriol Jourl of Ecoomics d Ficil Issus, Vol. 3, No. 1, 213, pp Hypohsis H: Exchg r hs o corrlio wih y of h mcrocoomic vribls lik Iflio, Irs R, Forig Ivsm, GDP Growh & Curr Accou Blc. H1: High iflio lds o pprciio of Exchg R of currcy. H2: High irs r rsuls i dprciio i h Exchg r of currcy. H3: Exchg r hs posiiv corrlio wih GDP growh r & curr ccou blc. 3.2 D Collcio & Alysis Sic ls dcd Idi forig xchg mrk hs udrgo sigific chgs d hs b subjcd o fw shocks. I is impriv by h flucuio i Idi Rup xchg r gis US Dollr. Tbl 1 summrizs vrious mcrocoomic vribls i Idi for h priod of 1991 o 2. Tbl 1. Vrious Mcrocoomic Idicors i Idi (1991-2) Exchg R (gis $) Iflio (CPI) Irs R (Ldig R) Exrl Db (Curr US$) GDP (Curr US$) FDI (Curr US$) Yr Sourc: RBI Publicios (World Dvlopm Idicors) 3.3 Drmis of Exchg R Voliliy Thr r my vribls h hv dirc or idirc impc o h xchg r of currcy. Th mi drmis of Exchg r r s follows: 3.3.A) Iflio R By d lrg coury wih cosisly lowr iflio r fcs risig currcy vlu d high purchsig powr s comprd o ohr currcis. Figur 1 shows voliliy i Idi Rup xchg r i ls wo dcds. 174
4 Alysis of Mcrocoomic Drmis of Exchg R Voliliy i Idi Figur 1. Exchg R of Idi Rup (gis $) form E x c h g R 6, 5, 4, 3, 2,,, Exchg R (gis $) Sourc: Compild by Auhor bsd o d from Rsrv Bk of Idi publicios. As grl rul h couris wih highr iflio fc dprciio i hir currcy i rlio o h currcis of hir rdig prrs (figur 2). This is lso usully followd by h highr irs rs. Figur 2. Iflio rs i Idi (Priod ) I f l i o R Iflio R i Idi Sourc: Compild by Auhor bsd o d from Rsrv Bk of Idi 3.3B) Irs Rs Ovr h yrs ohr impor fcor for movms i xchg rs hs b irs diffril i.. h diffrc i irs rs bw mjor couris. Currcis wih highr irs rs rc lrg o. of ivsors skig br opporuiis for hir ivsm. This mks h currcy mor rciv s form of ivsm d icrss h dmd for h currcy. Th opposi rlioship xiss for dcrsig irs rs i.. lowr irs rs d o dcrs xchg rs. Th irs r dcisios r k i Idi by h Rsrv Bk of Idi's Crl Bord of Dircors. Th officil irs r is h bchmrk rpurchs r. This r ws ls rpord 8 prc. For ls dcd, from uil 2, Idi's vrg irs r ws 5.82 prc rchig o highs 14.5 prc i Augus of d rcord low 3.25 prc i April of 29 (figur 3). 175
5 Iriol Jourl of Ecoomics d Ficil Issus, Vol. 3, No. 1, 213, pp Figur 3. Irs R (Ldig Rs) i Idi form Irs Rs I r s R s Sourc: Compild by Auhor bsd o d from Rsrv Bk of Idi publicios. 3.3C) Curr-Accou Dficis Th curr ccou is rcord of h blc of rd bw coury d is ohr prrs ll ovr h world. I rflcs ll pyms & rcips bw couris for purchs or sl of goods, srvics d pym / rcip of irs d dividds. Th curr ccou dfici idics h h coury is spdig mor o iriol rd h i is rig d i ordr o blc his dfici i is borrowig cpil from forig sourcs. Th Curr Accou blc i Idi ws -2.7 prc of GDP i h fiscl yr Sic ls hr dcds from h 198 o 2, h vrg Curr Accou s prc of GDP ws prc rchig o highs of 1.5 prc i Dcmbr 23 d rcord low of -3.2 prc i Dcmbr 2 (figur 4). Figur 4. Curr Accou Blc (Curr US$) from Curr A/C Blc Curr /c - Blc Sourc: Compild by Auhor bsd o d from Rsrv Bk of Idi publicios. Exchg r hs srog corrlio wih curr ccou surplus or dfici i log rm. Bu hr my o b y cusl rlioship. I cs of h floig xchg r sysm, h sus of curr ccou ffcs xchg r of coury o cri x. Th curr ccou surplus 176
6 Alysis of Mcrocoomic Drmis of Exchg R Voliliy i Idi mosly rsuls i pprciio of domsic currcy, whil is dficis will ld o dvluio of h sm. 3.3D) Growh i GDP Idi coomy compsss divrs chrcrisics such s rdiiol villg frmig s wll s modr griculur, modr idusris, hdicrfs d muliud of srvics. Srvics r h mjor sourc of coomic growh, ccouig for mor h hlf of Idi's ol iol oupu wih h mploym of lss h o hird of is lbor forc i his scor. Figur 5. GDP Growh (Curr US $) form GDP Growh (i US$) G D P ) ( i U S $ Sourc: Compild by Auhor bsd o d from Rsrv Bk of Idi publicios. Th Gross Domsic Produc (GDP) i Idi hs icrsd by 6.1 prc i h ls qurr of 211 ovr h prvious qurr. For priod of uil 211, vrg qurrly GDP Growh i Idi ws 7.45 prc rchig o is pk 11.8 prc i Dcmbr 23 d rcord low of 1.6 prc i Dcmbr 22 (figur 5). 3.3E Forig Ivsm & Cpil flow Th Forig Ivsm flow is icrsd i h coury wh i is growig rpidly such s Idi, Chi d Brzil c. (figur 6). Figur 6. Forig Dirc Ivsm i Idi (Curr US$) from Forig Dirc Ivsm Forig Dirc Ivsm Sourc: Compild by Auhor bsd o d from Rsrv Bk of Idi publicios. Th dmd for domsic currcy will icrs s forig ivsors hv o sll hir currcy i ordr o buy h locl currcy. This icrsd dmd will rsul i h icrs i vlu of h sm. Ihrly ivsors mk ivsm dcisios bsd o wo drivig fcors "h lvl of risk" d corrspodig "lvl of rur". Wh h xpcd lvls of risk-rur rio r high h 177
7 Iriol Jourl of Ecoomics d Ficil Issus, Vol. 3, No. 1, 213, pp ivsors r rcd d dmd for sss is icrsd. Crl bks moior d corol h flow of moy i d ou h coury. Thrfor mos of h couris hold sigific forx rsrvs. For.g. Chi d Russi lo hold wll ovr rillio U.S. dollrs i hir forig currcy rsrvs. 4. Sisicl Vribls Alysis Impc of vrious mcrocoomic vribls o xchg r hs b sudid wih h hlp of Prso s corrlio lysis usig SPSS (vrsio 2). Th rsul of his corrlio lysis is s follows: 4.1 Irs R vs. Exchg R: Th irs r d xchg r highly corrld, d h sisicl lysis shows h hr is giv corrlio bw irs r d xchg r sic h vlu of r is This corrlio is sigific.1 lvl. 4.2 Iflio R vs. Exchg R Th iflio r d xchg r modrly corrld, d h sisicl lysis shows h hr is idirc corrlio bw iflio r d xchg r sic h vlu of r is This corrlio is sigific.1 lvl. 4.3 GDP VS. Exchg R Th lysis of corrlio bw hs wo vribl shows h hr is modr posiiv rlioship bw h GDP d Exchg r s h vlu of r is.525 & his rlioship is sigific.5 lvl. Th xchg r d icom my o drif pr i h log ru, bu i h shor ru hy hv wk d idirc rlioship. Th sisicl rsuls idic h h rlioship bw h wo vribls is o vry sigific. Howvr, hy r idircly likd hrough svrl chls icludig impors of goods & srivcs, griculurl producio d forig id. 4.4 Curr Accou VS. Exchg R Th lysis shows h hr is o rlioship bw h Curr Accouig d xchg r sic h vlu of r is oly -.12 d his rlioship is o sigific. Th vlu of y currcy is xpcd o fll wh h curr ccou is i dfici, d mor likly o ris wh h curr ccou is i surplus. Though his rlioship is o xrmly sysmic, y h d rprs modr impc of h xchg r o h blc of curr ccou. Th lr rducs mor of wh h xchg r is high, d icrs mosly wh h currcy is dprcid. Also h sisicl lysis idics h h chgs i h xchg r ccou for isigific proporio (lss h 4 prc) of h movm i h curr ccou. (E. S. Hoffm, Ph.D. Ju 25) 4.5 Forig Dirc Ivsm vs. Exchg R Th lysis of corrlio bw hs wo vribl shows h hr is mild posiiv rlioship bw h FDI d Exchg r s h vlu of r is.442 & his rlioship is sigific.5 lvl. 5. Fidigs & Coclusios Th sisicl lysis of vrious mcrocoomic vribls shows h: H : This hypohsis is rjcd s i hs b foud h Exchg rs is corrlio wih my vribls such s irs r, iflio r & GDP Growh r i ihr dirc or idirc mr. H1: This hypohsis is rjcd s modr idirc corrlio hs b foud bw wo vribls. H2: This hypohsis is ccpd s srog idirc corrlio hs b foud bw irs r & xchg r. H3: This hypohsis is prilly ccpd s mild dirc corrlio hs b foud bw xchg r & GDP growh whil bw Curr ccou blc & Exchg r hr is vry wk corrlio. O h bsis of bov lysis i c b cocludd h Idi Rup hs show high voliliy ovr h yrs. Thr r vrious probbl rsos ssocid wih i. Idi ws rcivig cpil iflows v mids coiud globl ucriy i s is domsic oulook ws posiiv. Wih domsic oulook lso urig giv, Rup dprciio ws url oucom. Apr from lowr cpil iflows ucriy ovr domsic coomy hs lso md ivsors rvous ovr Idi coomy which hs furhr xggrd dprciio prssurs. Dprciio lds o 178
8 Alysis of Mcrocoomic Drmis of Exchg R Voliliy i Idi impors bcomig coslir which is worry for Idi s i ms mos of is oil dmd vi impors. Apr from oil, prics of ohr impord commodiis lik mls, gold c. will lso ris pushig ovrll iflio highr. Ev if prics of globl oil d commodiis dcli, h Idi cosumrs migh o bfi s dprciio will g h impc. I prs scrio wihou mor sbl sourc of cpil iflow, h Rup is xpcd o rmi highly volil. Rfrcs Du, P., S, P. (26) Cpil flow Voliliy d Exchg Rs: Th Cs of Idi Crl for Dvlopm Ecoomics, Dprm of Ecoomics, Dlhi School of Ecoomics. (Workig Ppr No. 144). Edwrds, S. (21) Exchg R Rgims, Cpil Iflows d Crisis Prvio, NBER d Uivrsiy of Clifori (Workig Ppr). Hrbrgr, A. (24), Ecoomic Adjusm d h Rl Exchg R, i S. Edwrds d L.Ahmd (ds.), Ecoomic Adjusm Exchg Rs i Dvlopig Couris, Uivrsiy of Chicgo Prss,, Hoffm, M.E.S. (25), Th Exchg R d h Trd Dfici: Wh s h Rlioship? Ju 25. Avilbl : hp://popl.duk.du/~mh13/xchgr-rddfici.pdf Husi, A.M., Mody, A., Rogoff, K.S., (24), Exchg R Rgim Durbiliy d Prformc i Dvlopig Vrsus Advcd Ecoomis, Jourl of Mory Ecoomics, 52(1), Ms, R., Rogoff, K. (1983). "Th Ou-of-Smpl Filur of Empiricl Exchg R Modls: Smplig Error or Misspcificio?," Niol Buru of Ecoomic Rsrch, Ic. (p ). Simo W.L.S. (1997), Is Thr Lif Ousid h ERM? A Evluio of h Effcs of Srlig's Dvluio o h UK Ecoomy, Iriol Jourl of Fic d Ecoomics, 2, Tylor, L. (21) Argi: A Posr Child for Filur of Librlisd Policis? Chllg/Novmbr Dcmbr. 44, 6,
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