Credit Opinion: Banco Alfa de Investimento S.A.

Transcription

1 Credit Opinion: Banco Alfa de Investimento S.A. Global Credit Research - 06 Jul 2012 Sao Paulo, Brazil Ratings Category Moody's Rating Outlook Stable Bank Deposits Baa2/P-3 NSR Bank Deposits -Dom Curr Aaa.br/BR-1 Bank Financial Strength C- Baseline Credit Assessment (baa2) Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment (baa2) Contacts Analyst Phone Ricardo Kovacs/Sao Paulo Alexandre Albuquerque/Sao Paulo M. Celina Vansetti/New York City Rafael Massei de Souza/Sao Paulo Key Indicators Conglomerado Financeiro Alfa (Consolidated Financials)[1] [2]3-12 [2]12-11 [2]12-10 [2]12-09 [2]12-08 Avg. Total Assets (BRL billion) [3]-5.0 Total Assets (USD billion) [3]1.0 Tangible Common Equity (BRL billion) [3]5.8 Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) [3]12.5 Net Interest Margin (%) [4]4.3 PPI / Avg RWA (%) [5]3.0 Net Income / Avg RWA (%) [5]1.8 (Market Funds - Liquid Assets) / Total Assets (%) [4]18.7 Core Deposits / Average Gross Loans (%) [4]35.8 Tier 1 Ratio (%) [5]18.4 Tangible Common Equity / RWA (%) [5]18.8 Cost / Income Ratio (%) [4]48.1 Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) [4]0.4 Problem Loans / (Equity + Loan Loss Reserves) (%) [4]1.4 Source: Moody's [1] All ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel II; LOCAL GAAP [3] Compound Annual Growth Rate based on LOCAL GAAP reporting periods [4] LOCAL GAAP reporting periods have been used for average calculation [5] Basel II & LOCAL GAAP reporting periods have been used for average calculation Opinion SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE

2 Moody's assigns a bank financial strength rating (BFSR) of C- (C minus) to Banco Alfa de Investimento S.A. (Alfa), which translates into a Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of baa2. The rating is supported by a banking operation that has generated recurring earnings for a considerable long period. Alfa's earnings consistency reflects its operational strategy that prioritizes conservative practices to underwrite and control credit risks, with prudent guidelines for approving loans, over firm pursuit of adequate rates of risk return and sustained expansion of its selected market segments through the offering of adequate financial products. The C- BFSR is also underpinned by a well-established and resilient franchise that helps Alfa to pass through more straining periods, as verified during the global turmoil of 2008/9, with the bank's robust financial indicators relatively stable, as asset quality and capital adequacy in particular. Established in 1966 under the name of Banco Real de Investimento, and renamed Banco Alfa de Investimento in 1998, when ABN AMRO Bank acquired Banco Real from Mr. Aloysio de Andrade Faria, the bank operates primarily in the niche segment of commercial lending to large corporate and upper-medium companies. The Alfa Conglomerate Group is also present in consumer lending to highincome individuals through Financeira Alfa S.A. - CFI. Moody's also assigns a global local currency (GLC) deposit rating of Baa2 to Alfa. The rating derives from a baseline credit assessment of Baa2 that does not receive any notching uplift because of the bank's modest presence in the retail deposit market. Nevertheless, Moody's recognizes the longtime commitment of Mr. Aloysio de Andrade Faria, Alfa's controlling shareholder, to the continued group's operation as indicated by a conservative earnings retention policy. Rating Drivers - Consistent financial fundamentals, specifically robust asset quality indicators and capital ratios. - Track record of a stable stream of core earnings, as a result of prudent risk management guidelines. - Financial conglomerate with a renowned brand name in the financial system. - Management team with long-time expertise in Alfa's niche financial markets. - Business model based on segregated operating companies with an integrated management structure, which results in a dynamic, low risk operation. - Loan portfolio has a history of superior quality and showed considerable resiliency during the past crisis. - High borrower concentration in loan portfolio, but gradually declining and partially mitigated by the high collateralization of its operations. - Limited scale capacity in an industry with increasing competition pressures, posing a challenge for margins. - Comprehensive management and good liquidity profile; however, funding structure lacks diversification with significant reliance on wholesale funding and a confidence sensitive customer base, particularly in an environment in which credit dynamics demand longer-tenors and lower interest rates. Rating Outlook The outlook on the BFSR, global local currency deposits, Brazilian national scale ratings and the foreign currency deposit rating of Baa2 are all stable. Alfa's stable outlook on its ratings is based on the sustained economic growth in Brazil. Moody's views the bank's financial flexibility through adequate capital and liquidity to provide a practical mitigation against potential disturbances in domestic wholesale funding markets for restricted periods of time. What Could Change the Rating - Up Profitability indicators moving in a consistently upward trend would be positive for ratings, considering the group's low ratios as compared to rated peers'. We have a positive view on Alfa's strategy to grow its investment banking activities as we also do on its efforts to increase fee-based products. Both actions should enhance franchise value and improve income diversity, thus reducing competitive pressure on its traditional lending operation. We would also consider more diversification in its funding sources as positive pressure on its ratings. An upgrade in the foreign currency deposit rating is also subject to an upgrade in the respective country ceiling.

3 What Could Change the Rating - Down We see limited downward rating pressure at this time, especially due to the current overall economic environment in Brazil (Baa2/Positive). Notwithstanding, an increased tolerance for credit, market or operational risks, representing higher earnings volatility, and ultimately, pressure on its capital base, with increased risk assets or outsized trading losses, would be a relevant source of negative pressure on Alfa's ratings. A material change in the macroeconomic environment impacting Alfa's funding conditions would also be a concern, as either would likely reduce the bank's recurring earnings or potentially hurt its sound financial profile. Recent Results and Company Events On a combined basis with all the banking activities of the group, Alfa conglomerate reported net income of BRL39.1 million in 1Q12, compared to BRL28 million in the first quarter of 2011, due to treasury gains and increased consumer loan portfolio results. Despite the declining economic conditions and credit dynamics since mid-2011, the largest entity of Alfa group, the investment bank: Banco Alfa de Investimento S.A., posted most of Alfa's group net income. The bank reported return on average equity (ROAE) of 2% in 1Q12 (annualized rate of 8.07%), considerably low but quite stable and in line with its own previous periods. Alfa group reported a gradual growing performance in terms of volumes, with a combined credit portfolio of BRL8 billion as of March 2012, or an 8% increase vis-a-vis 4Q11 and an 19% growth when compared to 1Q11. The nonperforming loans ratio, measured as loans past-due 60 days as a percentage of total loans remained well below 1%, which is among the unsurpassed levels even throughout the negative cycle in There has been no evidence of asset quality deterioration since the end of However, in accordance with its conservative risk philosophy, the group prudently maintains high reserves well above regulatory minimum requirements, with total allowance covering three time of over-15-day delinquent loans. The financial conglomerate reported BRL1.96 billion in total equity (or approximately USD1.12 billion) and a comfortable BIS ratio of 18,98% as of March 31st This capital ratio represents a more than adequate capital cushion to support sustainable loan growth, expected to be slightly above the financial market's performance, as well as to face potential periods of economic slowdown going forward. DETAILED RATING CONSIDERATIONS Detailed considerations for Alfa's currently assigned ratings are as follows. Franchise Value Alfa's core franchise derives from its diversified and efficient business model based on the constitution of different legal entities for each activity sharing the same central structure as well as a very prudent approach towards risk management. As of March 2012, Alfa had modest market shares of 0.24% of total assets and 0.14% of total deposits, its geographic distribution in retail banking relatively limited. Mr. Aloysio de Andrade Faria ultimately controls Alfa group as principal shareholder. There group is managed by no family members and there is no issue of continuity. Founder of former Banco Real, Mr. Faria sold the commercial bank to ABN AMRO Bank NV in Mr. Faria structured the Alfa Financial Conglomerate to follow a customersegmented approach. Two main financial entities conduct operations: Banco Alfa de Investimento and Financeira Alfa. Banco Alfa de Investimento is the wholesale and investment banking arm of the group, retaining roughly 65% of the conglomerate's credit portfolio. Its main activity is traditional commercial lending with large and upper-middle sized companies. The bank has been engaged in developing some fee-based products based on structured finance operations, and on developing synergies with its asset management activities. Alfa has approximately BRL6 billion of client's assets under management, and is focused on wealth management products, taking advantage of the conservative risk philosophy of the group and its renowned brand name. Alfa Financeira is the group's consumer finance company, a retail platform that has shown strong organic growth. The finance company specializes in consumer finance products to high-income individuals and in payroll lending to public servants and retirees. Its vehicle financing business is the more traditional operation within Alfa Financeira, being mostly focused on premium type clients through the offering of finance products as those for new top car models and so, competing against consumer financing companies and large universal banks. The consumer lending platform accounted for one third of the group's loan book in Banco Alfa S.A. is a limited commercial bank created to keep current account transactions, as well as a few selected commercial operations.

4 Alfa group employs an integrated management of capital, revenues and costs. A high-yielding retail book generates roughly 60% of the group's earnings base. Financial performance has been robust, with representative credit earnings flow, and consolidated positions in niche segments reported as efficient and of lower risk (as receivables discounts, car financing and pay-roll loans). Risk Positioning For risk positioning, Alfa structure of the group drags down the score because, despite the publicly-listed profile of its two main entities, they are ultimately owned and controlled by one shareholder, Mr. Aloysio de Andrade Faria. Mr. Faria's current conglomerate structure mirrors that of the former Real Group, which focused on the separation of operations into different business platforms. The separation provides a clear segregation of risks. Nevertheless, the structure might not be the most efficient way for an institution of this size to operate. In terms of corporate governance guidelines, the group has a strong governance culture, being managed by experienced executives, some of them coming from Banco Real. This results in a strong identification of management with the group's operation and business model of having a conservative risk philosophy and consistent strategic direction. Part of the group's brand image is built on the entrepreneurial strength of its ultimate shareholder ("key man risk" factor). Nevertheless, the group is managed by a group of high quality professionals that provide a more dynamic approach to business while maintaining a very conservative risk management process. Disciplined controls have been vital to support loan growth. The risk management architecture is based firmly on diligent management of credit, market and liquidity risks, with no tolerance for liquidity or currency gaps. The institution does not mainly target increasing market share or aggressive performance. Management exercises tight controls on the guarantees that back its credit activities and sets stringent limits on exposure by industries and products. Transparency has improved significantly over the last few years, with the publication of more detail financial reports and satisfactory quarterly information disclosures. Alfa's credit portfolio was 68% wholesale loans, leading to a risk profile that is inherently concentrated, with the largest 20 group exposures accounting for roughly 87% of equity in Dec In addition, the group carries a large portfolio of public securities to address its cash liquidity needs and reducing; at the end of March 2012 it amounted to BRL3.74 billion (or approximately US$2.05 billion). However, we note that secured loans make up most of Alfa's credit portfolio. The fact that approximately 50% of the portfolio has primecollaterals that cover more than 100% of credit risk mitigates the concentration hazard. Similar to other medium-sized banks, non-core deposits make up most of Alfa's funding structure, especially time deposits, which just accounted for approximately 10.2% of the total funding mix in 1Q12. Still, the declining volume of daily liquidity represents approximately 24% of Time Deposits. Alfa funds its long-term credit portfolio either through re-funded sources from national federal development bank BNDES, 9% of the mix in 1Q12 (compared to 16% in March 2011), through long-term interbank deposits covered by long-term credit receivables, a practice aimed at managing liquidity risk and the issuance of Letras Financeiras reaching BRL1.7 billion last Mar attending the same investor base of TD's. Alfa has not accessed DPGE (Insurance Deposit) more costly market, neither the international capital markets due to the implied higher costs when compared to domestic alternatives, so its foreign currency funding is basically comprised of trade finance facilities with a number of correspondent banks. Historically, the group operates following a conservative approach towards cash liquidity, maintaining a minimum of BRL1 billion in available cash, or 50% of total equity. As of December of 2011, total liquid assets amounted to BR4.19 billion, covering 2 times its deposit base, but inter-financial borrowings. Even during the 2008/9 crisis, there was no disruption on the group's deposit base, unlike what happened at most of the niche banks, which registered an average deposit run of 40% due to investors' limited confidence. We believe that the key to support expansion going forward continues to be a further funding diversification, already considering its new funding source of Letras Financeiras, also because the lengthening of its loan portfolio persists, mostly during periods of economic stability with stronger competition and declining interest rates and spreads as nowadays. The access to international capital markets could also be an interesting alternative source of funding that would sustain the portfolio being lengthened. Profitability and Efficiency The scenario for profitability incorporates competition and increasing pressure in interest margins that affects the

5 financial industry as a whole. Overall, on an aggregate basis, we do not expect Alfa's consolidated profitability ratios to move out of trend lines. The group has been reporting steady levels of earnings recurrence for a long time, with a consistent performance in its traditional market niches. The bottom-line results have largely replenishing capital through the years, and supporting credit expansion in an organized manner. In the 1Q12, the growth rate of some portfolios was very consistent, and Alfa's consolidated loan book presented a 6.5% increase on a quarterly basis. The BRL39 million bottom line result in March 2012 is in line when compared to the previous year, and reflects regular flow of transactions and liquidity dynamics that translate into lower funding costs for the bank. Changes in credit dynamics explain some of the volatility in credit margins, especially their contraction in the first quarter of 2012, which eventually benefited wholesale portfolio's net interest margins (NIM). However, the tight competition might challenge margins as large banks join niche markets, dragging spreads down. Centered on an organic expansion strategy, Alfa has reported quite stable and consistent efficiency ratios over the last decade. The retail origination flow is only based on proprietary distribution, and does not thus expose the bank's cost structure to high commissions to be paid to third-party correspondents that in general drain margins of competitor banks, notably in the pay-roll business as well as in the very thin market of vehicle financing. Still, by operating in the top premium segment, the bank can competitively fine-tune its pricing conditions. Cost-to-income ratio has been averaging approximately 50% since 2002, 48% in FY2011 and early 2012, but increased more substantially during 2010 to 57%, mirroring the more stringent competitive scenario while imposing additional challenges to the bank's administration. Notwithstanding, Alfa group made limited adjustments during the crisis in 2008, different from most of its local peers that reduced their work forces by at least one third and reshaped operational structures which can be always adopted by Alfa as decided and necessary by a more severe and extended period of critical operating environment. Liquidity Traditionally, Alfa maintains a vigilant management of liquidity gaps, as executives pursue optimized diversification in order to support lending expansion and lengthening. Funding has been largely wholesale-related, with about one third of time deposits coming from institutional investors, one fifth from high-income clients and 40% from corporate clients, a structure with a reasonable stability in times of stress. The group is largely exposed to changes in funding dynamics, including costs, similar to most of its midsized peers, and for that, it has concentrated efforts in using securitization structures to replace medium-term funding with long-term sources, thus providing a better match to its long-term retail portfolio. Also by the increasing usage of Letras Financeiras, as Alfa has been using this local debt instrument `Letra Financeira', which is quite similar to a time deposit in structure, but a longer tenor instrument minimum 2 year tenor. The bank has some agreements with large institutions that provide sizable interbank deposits to Alfa. Those funding alternatives positively provide the bank with a full matched operation. Cash liquidity has always been comfortably high compared to other midsized banks, a characteristic of Alfa's liquidity management, also a factor of credit strength to its niche style operation. Total cash and marketable securities reached BRL 3.7 billion as of March 2012, largely composed by central government securities (Moody's rating: Baa2/Positive). However, we continue to see liquidity management as a challenge going forward. It requires management to further amplify and diversify funding sources in order to attain longer tenors and to defend its market position in a more competitive scenario under squeezing interest margins and spreads consequently. Capital Adequacy Having a high quality capital cushion is a long-established financial fundamental of Alfa Financial Conglomerate. With a capital base of BRL1.95 billion (or approximately USD1.07 billion) as of March 2012, Alfa conglomerate posted a total BIS ratio of 18.98%, slightly below its 2011's ratio of 19,05%. The excess capital allows the group to considerably expand its loan portfolio. Traditionally conservatively low dividend payout ratios have protected capitalization. The bank would still be able to use Tier 2 instruments to leverage its capital base if necessary, a longterm funding alternative that also improves capital base, and not employed by Alfa so far. Asset Quality Alfa has a long track record of low delinquency and high recovery levels. The bank's client target and careful credit risk policies have proven reliable throughout the cycles. Operating on high levels of portfolio collateralization and in a consumer niche with a history of low defaults, Alfa's wholesale and retail loan portfolios have maintained superior quality as compared to peers' and well below industry's metrics. Total non-performing loans ratio - past due loans

6 over 90 days as a percentage of total loans - peaked 0.95% in the 3Q09, then went down along the periods and posted a much lower historical ratio of 0.30% as of last March 31st The group keeps a high cushion of reserves, indicating management's risk aversion. Despite market trends of a solid scenario for credit dynamics in 2011, the reserve coverage represented 10 times non-performing loans (past due over 90 days) as of March 31st. 2011, sustaining the bank's selective management of risks in the future. While the bank estimates low double digit growth in all portfolios, we do not expect a negative trend for Alfa's asset quality, which has not derailed from its historically superior ratios even in times of more competitive credit standards and high uncertainties. Global Local Currency Deposit Rating (Joint Default Analysis) Moody's Baa2 global local-currency deposit rating incorporates no support from the government in the event of a systemic crisis because of the group's modest participation in the market for retail deposits. Therefore, the Baa2 rating is a direct mapping of Alfa's baseline credit assessment of baa2. Mr. Aloysio de Andrade Faria's commitment to the group's operation has been proven throughout the years, as the controller has been forthcoming in supplying capital to support the group's growth. Nevertheless, it does not result in any notch uplift to the rating. National Scale Rating Alfa is rated Aaa.br and BR-1 by Moody's for Brazilian national scale deposit ratings. The rating is supported by the creditworthiness in its niche market, and it is derived from the group's global local-currency deposit rating. Foreign Currency Deposit Rating Moody's assigns foreign currency deposit ratings of Baa2 and Prime 3, in the long- and short-term respectively, to Alfa. The outlook is stable. Foreign Currency Debt Rating Moody's does not assign any debt rating to Alfa. ABOUT MOODY'S BANK RATINGS Bank Financial Strength Rating Moody's Bank Financial Strength Ratings (BFSRs) represent Moody's opinion of a bank's intrinsic safety and soundness and, as such, exclude certain external credit risks and credit support elements that are addressed by Moody's Bank Deposit Ratings. Bank Financial Strength Ratings do not take into account the probability that the bank will receive such external support, nor do they address risks arising from sovereign actions that may interfere with a bank's ability to honor its domestic or foreign currency obligations. Factors considered in the assignment of Bank Financial Strength Ratings include bank-specific elements such as financial fundamentals, franchise value, and business and asset diversification. Although Bank Financial Strength Ratings exclude the external factors specified above, they do take into account other risk factors in the bank's operating environment, including the strength and prospective performance of the economy, as well as the structure and relative fragility of the financial system, and the quality of banking regulation and supervision. Moody's uses the Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) to map BFSRs onto the 21-point Aaa-C rating scale and like the BFSR, it reflects a bank stand- alone default risk. Each point on the Aaa-C scale represents a specific probability of default and therefore allows Moody's to use the BCA as an input to Moody's Joint Default Analysis (JDA), described below. The baseline credit assessment reflects what the local currency deposit rating of the bank with the given BFSR would be without any assumed external support from a government or third party. Global Local Currency Deposit Rating A deposit rating, as an opinion of relative credit risk, incorporates the Bank Financial Strength Rating as well as Moody's opinion of any external support. Specifically, Moody's Bank Deposit Ratings are opinions of a bank's ability to repay punctually its deposit obligations. As such, Moody's Bank Deposit Ratings are intended to incorporate those aspects of credit risk relevant to the prospective payment performance of rated banks with respect to deposit obligations, and includes: intrinsic financial strength, sovereign transfer risk (in the case of foreign currency deposit ratings), and both implicit and explicit external support elements. Moody's Bank Deposit Ratings do not take into

7 account the benefit of deposit insurance schemes which make payments to depositors, but they do recognize the potential support from schemes that may provide assistance to banks directly. According to Moody's joint default analysis (JDA) methodology, the global local currency deposit rating of a bank is determined by the incorporation of any external elements of support into the bank's Baseline Credit Assessment. In assigning the local currency deposit rating to a bank, the JDA methodology also factors in the rating of the various potential support providers (parent company, cooperative group, regional or national governments), as well as the degree of dependence that may exist between each one of them and the bank. Moody's assessment of the probability of systemic support (by a national government) is derived from the analysis of the capacity of a government and its central bank to provide support on a system-wide basis. The systemic support indicator is determined for a particular country and serves as an input for all bank ratings in that country. The support indicator can be set at, above or, in rare cases, below the government's local currency bond rating for that country. National Scale Rating National scale ratings are intended primarily for use by domestic investors and are not comparable to Moody's globally applicable ratings; rather they address relative credit risk within a given country. A Aaa rating on Moody's National Scale indicates an issuer or issue with the strongest creditworthiness and the lowest likelihood of credit loss relative to other domestic issuers. National Scale Ratings, therefore, rank domestic issuers relative to each other and not relative to absolute default risks. National ratings isolate systemic risks; they do not address loss expectation associated with systemic events that could affect all issuers, even those that receive the highest ratings on the National Scale. Foreign Currency Deposit Rating Moody's ratings on foreign currency bank obligations derive from the bank's local currency rating for the same class of obligation. The implementation of JDA for banks can lead to a high local currency ratings for certain banks, which could also produce high foreign currency ratings. Nevertheless, it should be noted that foreign currency deposit ratings are in all cases constrained by the country ceiling for foreign currency bank deposits. This may result in the assignment of a different, and typically lower, rating for the foreign currency deposits relative to the bank's rating for local currency obligations. Foreign Currency Debt Rating Foreign currency debt ratings are derived from the bank's local currency debt rating. In a similar way to foreign currency deposit ratings, foreign currency debt obligations may also be constrained by the country ceiling for foreign currency bonds and notes: however, in some cases the ratings on foreign currency debt obligations may be allowed to pierce the foreign currency ceiling. A particular mix of rating factors are taken into consideration in order to assess whether a foreign currency bond rating pierces the country ceiling. They include the issuer's global local currency rating, the foreign currency government bond rating, the country ceiling for bonds and the debt's eligibility to pierce that ceiling. About Moody's Bank Financial Strength Scorecard Moody's bank financial strength model (see scorecard below) is a strategic input in the assessment of the financial strength of a bank, used as a key tool by Moody's analysts to ensure consistency of approach across banks and regions. The model output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. Rating Factors Conglomerado Financeiro Alfa Rating Factors [1] A B C D E Total Trend Score Qualitative Factors (70%) C- Factor: Franchise Value C- Neutral

8 Market Share and Sustainability x Geographical Diversification x Earnings Stability x Earnings Diversification [2] Factor: Risk Positioning D Neutral Corporate Governance [2] x - Ownership and Org. Complexity x - Key Man Risk x - Insider and Related-Party Risks x Controls and Risk Management x - Risk Management x - Controls x Financial Reporting Transparency x - Global Comparability x - Frequency and Timeliness x - Quality of Financial Information x Credit Risk Concentration x - Borrower Concentration x - Industry Concentration x Liquidity Management x Market Risk Appetite x Factor: Operating Environment D Neutral Economic Stability x Integrity and Corruption x Legal System x Financial Factors (30%) B Factor: Profitability C+ Neutral PPI / Average RWA - Basel II 2.79% Net Income / Average RWA - Basel II 1.79% Factor: Liquidity C Neutral (Market funds - Liqud Assets) / Total Assets 17.68% Liquidity Management x Factor: Capital Adequacy A Neutral Tier 1 Ratio - Basel II 20.09% Tangible Common Equity / RWA - Basel II 19.89% Factor: Efficiency B Neutral Cost Income ratio 49.55% Factor: Asset Quality A Neutral Problem Loans / Gross Loans 0.44% Problem Loans / (Shareholders' Equity + Loan Loss 1.46% Reserves) Lowest Combined Financial Factor Score (9%) C Economic Insolvency Override Neutral Aggregate Score C Assigned BFSR C- [1] - Where dashes are shown for a particular factor (or sub-factor), the score is based on non-public information. [2] - A blank score under Earnings Diversification or Corporate Governance indicates the risk is neutral.

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