The influence of climate change at high altitude and high latitude

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1 The influence of climate change at high altitude and high latitude Raino Heino Finnish Meteorological Institute CONTENTS - Background and sources - Climate changes (past and future) -. and their impacts -. at high latitudes/ altitudes - Concluding remarks

2 References WG1 WG2 WG3 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 >3000 p Impacts of Europe s changing climate (EEA) Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) etc EEA ACIA several ~2013 WMO - CCl (Commission for Climatology) -IPY (International Polar Year) - CliC (Climate and Crysphere) Springer, 500p BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change etc

3 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by WMO and UNEP in 1988 to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. Main activities and products -> IPCC ja Nobel (2007) IPCC Working Groups /4 major assessment reports -WG I scientific aspects of climate change - WG II impacts of climate change - WG III mitigating of climate change WHY IPCC? policymakers need an objective source of information about the causes of climate change, its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences and the adaptation and mitigation options to respond to it. Rio 1992 Kyoto 1997 Bali 2007 UNFCCC -> Copenhagen 2009 IPCC 1990 IPCC 1996 IPCC IPCC 2050

4 Past climate: data sources?

5 Global Tempereture Changes in different time-scales..

6 Baseline networks of instrumental meteorological data -> GCOS Arctic climate information (ACIA)

7 Stykkisholmur Iceland Tasillaq Greenland Spitsbergen Norway NORDIC ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURES Stockholm Helsinki

8 Arctic vs Global annual temperature anomalies ( C) Note different scales IPCC 2007 Warming in the Arctic is >>double that for the globe from 19 th to 21 st century and from late 1960s to present. Warmth 1925 to 1950 in Arctic was not as widespread as recent global warmth.

9 BACC: The Baltic area has become warmer spring, growing season and summer start earlier autumn, frost season and winter start later 220 Duration of the ice cover in some Finnish lakes Temperature anomaly ( C) Annual mean temperature Duration of ice cover (days) Oulujärvi Kallavesi Näsijärvi North Year Filter South Year Filter Frost days? 70 Hot days High precipitation years Annual trends (days/year) ECA dataset Linear trend in the DJF number of events above 90th percentile during the period

10 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change.BACC) Interannual variability in water inflow is considerable, but no statistically significant trend is found in the annual time series for the period Change ->

11 Large Flood Events

12 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change.BACC) UNTIL NOW - No change in heat content and salinity No long-term trends in storminess? However, it is possible to attribute parts of the observed regional changes to changes in the large-scale circulation! - Accelerated rise of the sea level - Less ice Observed Projected

13 IPCC: Past and future?

14 Projections of future temperature changes Projected warming in 21st century expected to be - greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes - and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean Green world Medium BaU

15 Projections of future precipitation changes Winter Summer -> Increases very likely in high latitudes -> Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

16 Implications ( of climate changes) -> IPCC WG2 Arctic ice and snow..as well as permafrost..and vegetation zones

17 Ice cover of the Arctic Sea is disappearing??? Thickness

18 Snow? Satellite measurements 1966 July 2008 EU-INTAS project (SCCONE) Snow cover changes over Northern Eurasia Linear trend coefficients in the time series of mean snow depths for the permanent snow-cover period

19 IPCC: Glaciers and frozen ground? Increased glacier retreat since the early 1990s Area of seasonally frozen ground has decreased

20 Biological influences The Earth is greening Pine now in 2100 (from satellites) Flying into climate change Climate threat to coral reefs Spruce Birch Köppen climatic zones based on present ( ) temperature and precipitation Dry climates Steppe Desert Mild winters* Dry summers Wet all seasons Cold winters* Dry summers Wet all seasons Polar climates Tundra Ice cap

21 Temp. & Prec. -> s 2050s 2020s 2080s

22 Rising sea levels 60 cm IPCC cm

23 Climate change will not be gradual, but Concluding remarks Complicated sea currents Greenland melting If the Golf stream would not exist!

24 degrc > 2 km what about +5?

25

26 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004) BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change -> BACC (2007) The overall format is similar to the IPCC - author groups for the individual chapters - overall policymakers-summary - review process. Springer, 500p -> ->

27 ARCTIC: Present and future temperature

28 (Attribution.) Natural + anhtropogenic causes NAO etc? Natural causes

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