Senior Vice President Jan Alne, Statkraft Energi AS

Transcription

1 ISGAN Workshop 8th October 2013 Hydro, Wind & Solar integration - from a Norwegian producer point of view side 1 Introkurs for nyansatte i Tyssedal Senior Vice President Jan Alne, Statkraft Energi AS

2 NORWAY-SUITABLE FOR HYDRO! This project started i Tyssedal in 1906 The biggest high head development in Northern Europe Foreign funding side 2 Introkurs for nyansatte i Tyssedal

3 page 3 HARDANGER TYSSEDAL SITE 1907

4 page 4 HARDANGER Penstocks Tyssedal

5 Page 5

6 Statkraft s production 2012 Installed capacity MW 60 TWh Power production Norway Sweden employees 97% renewable energy UK Finland Turkey Nepal Germany Laos Panama (project) Peru Brazil India Sri Lanka Philippines STATKRAFT SN POWER AGUA IMARA Chile Zambia 6 1 Including pro rata ownership in associates outside the Nordics

7 Renewable electricity production (TWh) Statkraft is the leading RES producer in Europe Top 10 renewable electricity producers in Europe in , ,0 45, , ,5 27,9 26, ,5 18,7 17, Statkraft EDF Vattenfall Enel Fortum Verbund Iberdrola E.ON GDF SUEZ Hidroelectrica Company Source: PwC 7 Adjusted figures production outside Europe not included

8 2012: RES are growing fossils are taken out MW New Decommisioned Kilde: EWEA 8

9 EU ETS: regulatory uncertainty reflected in price forecasts CO2 price pathways short run, EUR/Ton (Real 2013) CO2 price pathways long run, EUR/Ton (Real 2013) 25 Thompson Reuters Bloomberg Market_extended IEA WEO12 (New Policies) 20 Market Prices IEA WEO13 (450 ppm) EC 2050 Roadmap (Current policies) ,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 EC 2050 Roadmap (Average decarbonisation) Sources: ICE, Thompson Reuters, IEA, EC 2050 Roadmap, Bloomberg Prices are Real 2013 (Forward prices are discounted by 2% )

10 Coal-fired production costs have fallen whereas gas-fired costs have increased Development in fuel and carbon costs, EUR/MWh Hard Coal Gas (CCGT) jan.09 jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 3 Sources: ICE & Heren ( )

11 Market situation in Germany for Statkraft s plants is poor Spark spread has reduced Plants have still operated in 2012 but at zero contribution margin Impossible for efficient conventional power plants to cover fixed O&M costs 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Stromproduktion Statkraft Gasportfolio in TWh Knapsack 1 Herdecke Emden 4 Robert Frank 11

12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-12 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 jul-20 MWh/h MWh/h and no improvement is expected July July 2020 & 2016 Demand Net demand = (Demand - RES) Net demand - bio - lign - nuc - chp Demand Net demand = (Demand - RES) Net demand - bio - lign - nuc - chp (Jul 2020) Net demand - bio - lign - nuc - chp (Jul 2016) 12 Source: Statkraft s internal analysis

13 National capacity mechanisms being implemented despite EU s call for coordinated action National capacity mechanisms are currently being implemented in Europe EU calling for coordination: If mechanisms are not well designed, set up prematurely or without proper coordination at EU level, they may be counterproductive. IR: Capacity payments in place since 2005 FR: Capacity obligation model decided and now being designed UK: Developing auction model; Detailed design proposal published June 2013, first auction in 2014 DE: Stillegungsverbot to be replaced by capacity market by end 2017 BE: Financial support for new CCGTs proposed NO, SE & FI: Strategic reserve (if security of supply is at stake) IT: Capacity market to be implemented in ES: Capacity payments.

14 The Norwegian/Swedish elcert market The Norwegian target in 2020 is 67,5 % RES; The Swedish is 49% The common green electricity market with Sweden started up on 1 January ,4 TWh RES to be online before end of 2020 Technology-neutral approach, also implying hydropower of all sizes. 14

15 Almost no future increase in demand 15

16 Large Nordic power surplus expected

17 New Norwegian interconnector capacity, 3500 MW under development Project Startup Capacity (MW) Skagerrak 4 (Denmark) Q4/ NORD.LINK Q4/ NSN (UK) Q4/ Source: Statnett

18 Norwegian import & export of electricity Average values per week Maximal yearly import has been 15,3 TWh Maximal yearly export has been 22,1 TWh

19 How will the Nordic market develop? A lot of new supply will come, but there is not much new demand New interconnectors take a long time to develop There are few fuel-switch-possibilities in the Nordics And would the Nordic power intensive industry survive? But could a growing electricity surplus pave the way for a close down of the Swedish nuclear plants? 19

20 Good growth opportunities within renewable energy Sheringham Shoal, UK Statkraft s investment plan for is being developed : - Hydro and wind in the Nordics? - Offshore wind in the UK? - Hydropower in France or the Balkans? - Hydropower outside Europe? - Other or new technologies? - Greenfield or M&A? Favourable framework conditions will be key 20

21 Supporting the power system in Europe Due to the energy regulating capacity, Norway may support other power systems that require backup solutions and storage. Nordic hydro reservoirs content 121 TWh Norway 85 TWh (Statkraft 35 TWh)

22 NORWEGIAN POSSIBILITIES Appr. 50% of total hydro reservoirs in Europe 85 TWh Three alternative options: 1. Change the operation pattern in existing plants 2. Increase installed capacity 3. Build pumped hydro storage in connection with existing reservoirs Both increased capacity and pumped storage is possible where the distance to the Continent is the shortest Without new greenfield assets or reservoirs, but by extended use of exsisting

23 The hydrology vs energy consumption GWh/week Consumption Max. Inflow Mean Inflow Min. Inflow Excisting PSH in Norway developed for seasonal pumping Data for Norway Week 23

24 ULLA-FØRRE POWER PLANT SCHEME

25 Ulla Førre- 200 MW / 5 TWh annual prod- storage capacity 8000 TWh Blåsjø-Green battery sid e 25 Lio ns

26 KVILLDAL : HIGHTECH FORMEL 1! side 26 Introkurs for nyansatte i Tyssedal

27 CEDREN - Renewable energy respecting nature 8 years of research: large research projects 7 Norwegian research partners 13 Industry partners and 2 management partners Budget: 36 MEuro (5 MEuro in 2013) financed by the Research Council and the Energy industry 16 PhD and 4 Post-doc positions 27

28 Main topics Hydropower technology for the future Environmental design of hydropower Impacts on birds and wildlife from wind turbines and power lines Reconciling environmental and energy policy concerns

29

30 SALMON CAUGHT IN ALTA RIVER 30 KG Thanks for your attention- good luck to us all! Pag e 30

31 THANK YOU THANK YOU