MARKET OVERVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES WITH EMPHASIS ON RF (SEPTEMBER 23, 2014)

Transcription

1 MARKET OVERVIEW AND OPPORTUNITIES WITH EMPHASIS ON RF (SEPTEMBER 23, 2014) INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. 632 Industrial Way Los Gatos CA USA (fax)

2 TOP-LEVEL DRIVERS FOR RF Smartphones and tablet computers represent key drivers for wireless connectivity Volume of smartphones and tablet computers will be higher in China than other countries in 2015 Volume leaders in 2015 are likely to be Xiaomi, Huawei Technologies, and Lenovo Group Each producing 75M to 100M units Power amplifiers represent key functionality block in smartphones Latest smartphones have four or five power amplifiers Each compound III-V power amplifier requires SOI switch, with increased complexity of switches Qualcomm is ramping RF360, which is SOI-based CMOS power amplifier Other companies are also developing CMOS-based power amplifiers Transceiver functionality is migrating to 28nm Need lower power Wi-Fi ac is becoming mainstream Designs are migrating from 40nm to 28nm Need lower power Bluetooth Smart is mandatory on smartphones and is key IP for Internet of Things (IoT) ZigBee continues to have supporters RF IS HIGH GROWTH AREA SLIDE 2

3 MU 2,400 WIRELESS HANDSET BY PROTOCOL 1,950 1,992 2,038 2,063 2,047 2,024 2,002 1,984 1,969 1,800 1, , ,282 1,270 1,163 1, ,238 1,200 2G/2.5G: GSM and Other 1,088 3G: UMTS, FOMA, CDMA2000, and TD-SCDMA 1, G: LTE STRONG GROWTH OF LTE SLIDE 3

4 PROTOCOL TREND IN WIRELESS HANDSET MARKET 3G is mainstream in 2014, but with high growth for 4G Data rates within UMTS protocol continue to increase, which broadens adoption LTE is projected to represent 55.4% of total unit volume shipments in 2020 LTE ramp-up is fast on relative basis and is driven by need for high bandwidth to support range of high definition content CDMA 2000 is expected to become obsolete in U.S. in 2021 However, backward compatibility is important in U.S., South Korea, and other countries in short term TD-SCDMA will be replaced by TD-LTE Volume of TD-LTE will increase rapidly in 2015 FD-LTE is mainstream technology in multiple countries HANDSET MARKET BY PROTOCOL IS EVOLVING RAPIDLY BECAUSE OF NEED FOR HIGH BANDWIDTH SLIDE 4

5 LTE Volumes (MU) 1,200 LTE MARKET BY GEOGRAPHIC REGION 1, U.S. Europe Japan China South Korea Other CHINA MARKET HAS HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL SLIDE 5

6 LTE MARKET BY GEOGRAPHIC REGION (CONTINUED) U.S. was key driver for LTE Quality of service in U.S., however, is very bad because of constraints over CAPEX by carriers Europe has taken relatively cautious approach to ramping LTE because of financial constraints in number of countries China market for TD-LTE was projected to be 100M units by end of 2014, but with some delays in adoption By December 31, 2015, China is projected to have 150M 4G subscribers Ramp-up of LTE in India was delayed However, this is changing LTE is becoming global capability, with different frequencies and different levels of bandwidth support NEED TO SUPPORT BACKWARD CAPABILITY, WHICH MAKES CONNECTIVITY COMPLEX SLIDE 6

7 Peak Bandwidth MANY NEW APPLICATIONS WILL EMERGE TRANSITION TO GLOBAL BROADBAND WIRELESS CONNECTIVITY 1Gbps MULTIPLE STREAMS OF ULTRA-HIGH DEFINITION VIDEO 100Mbps HIGH DEFINITION VIDEO 10Mbps WE ARE HERE STANDARD DEFINITION VIDEO 1Mbps AUDIO AND MUSIC.1Mbps DATA.01Mbps VOICE.001Mbps MIGRATION TO BROADBAND WIRELESS AND CLOUD COMPUTING GIVES MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEW PLATFORMS AND SERVICES Year Available for Wide Range of Users SLIDE 7

8 TRANSITION TO GLOBAL BROADBAND WIRELESS CONNECTIVITY (CONTINUED) Wireless connectivity bandwidth has historically increased by 10X every five years Peak download in 2020 is projected to be 1Gbps 5G trials are expected in 2018, with initial deployment in 2020 Ericsson is collaborating with SK Telecom However, Ericsson is abandoning development of thin modems UHDTV content is one of key drivers for 5G IoT will also require access to high bandwidth Billions of devices will each need low bandwidth but will cumulatively require high bandwidth Global demand for high bandwidth INCREASE IN PEAK BANDWIDTH WILL BE HIGHLY DEMANDING ON RF TECHNOLOGY SLIDE 8

9 MODEM ROADMAP 1Gbps 500Mbps 200Mbps 100Mbps 50Mbps 15Mbps INCREASE IN MODEM BANDWIDTH WILL SUPPORT ADOPTION OF NEW PLATFORMS SLIDE 9

10 MODEM ROADMAP (CONTINUED) With growth of available peak bandwidth, modem functionality over time will also increase in discrete steps Peak throughput for modem functionality is projected to be 1Gbps in 2020 Power amplifier technology will need to support increase in bandwidth Qualcomm is in very strong position in high bandwidth modem arena and is also providing full RF signal chain MediaTek is strengthening market position rapidly Spreadtrum Communications has shown strong performance with good upside potential Datang is well positioned to address China market HiSilicon Technologies is competitive in 4G modems Intel has developed integrated transceivers and power amplifiers in 65nm for 3G and IoT Intel also has relationship with Fuzhou Rockchip Electronics MODEM ROADMAP PROVIDES VISIBILITY INTO POWER AMPLIFIER ROADMAP SLIDE 10

11 WIRELESS HANDSET MARKET SHARE (MU) TOTAL Smartphones TOTAL Smartphones Samsung Apple Huawei Microsoft/Nokia LG Electronics Lenovo ZTE Sony Coolpad Xiaomi BlackBerry TCL HTC Google/Motorola Other TOTAL 1, , Growth rate (%) NA NA SLIDE 11

12 Electronics Industry Production (MU) CHINA S ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY PRODUCTION 2,100 1,992 1,950 22% 19% Other 1,775 China 29% 1,400 1,306 1,257 53% 55% 1,561 36% 71% 78% 81% 81% in % % 47% 0 45% in % 59% 41% 48% % 59% % 45% 49% 53% % 55% 51% 47% 43% 40% 57% 60% 46% % % 42% 32% 27% 24% 21% 68% 73% 76% 79% Mobile phone Tablet computer Color TV PC/laptop CHINA IS ABLE TO ASSEMBLE HIGH PRECISION PRODUCTS, WHERE ROBOTS ARE BEING ADDED AT RAPID RATE TECHNOLOGY BASE IN CHINA IS BUILDING SLIDE 12

13 RF IC Market RF IC MARKET $50B $44.2B $46.6B $41.5B $40B $33.9B $36.0B $38.5B Power Amplifiers Transceivers Wi-Fi $30B $28.7B $31.0B Bluetooth NFC $20B $18.0B $21.6B $25.4B WiMAX GPS FM Wireless USB Mobile TV ZigBee RF MEMS $10B Other $0B LARGE MARKET WITH GOOD GROWTH POTENTIAL SLIDE 13

14 RF IC MARKET (CONTINUED) Market for RF IC products is projected to be $46.6B in 2020 compared to $18.0B in CAGR for this time frame is 9.95% High growth of RF IC market is related to higher complexity on RF IC products combined with large increase in volume There is also impact of new RF IC products and new protocols, eg, ac and Bluetooth Smart Wireless connectivity can support large number of users with relatively low cost of deployment compared to wireline connectivity RF IC market is segmented into multiple product categories However, transceivers and power amplifiers for mobile handsets will account for 51.0% of total market in 2020 High value for these two product categories indicates strategic importance of connected mobile platforms and role that connectivity has in Internet-accessed content concepts Wide range of wireless products will also drive need for variety of process technologies While some areas can increase integration of functionality, it is also widely expected that there be increased use of chip-scale packaging and supply of multichip modules Chip-scale packaging technology will become increasingly important RF IC MARKET HAS STRONG GROWTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE HIGH GROWTH FOR WAFER SUPPLY SLIDE 14

15 POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET VALUE Phones (MU) 1,561 1,775 1,950 1,992 2,038 2,063 2,047 2,024 2,002 1,984 1,969 Smartphones (MU) ,105 1,237 1,347 1,443 1,549 1,649 1,742 Other phones (MU) 1,237 1,275 1,221 1, Connected tablets (MU) Add-on cards & other (MU) TOTAL Units that need PAs (MU) 1,619 1,962 2,303 2,494 2,575 2,675 2,615 2,645 2,673 2,700 2,731 PA ASP ($) TOTAL PA market ($M) 3,156 4,258 5,573 6,808 7,390 8,453 9,205 9,813 10,585 11,178 11,416 Growth rate (%) NA CMOS PA ($M) ,582 2,771 3,965 5,078 Growth rate (%) NA Non-CMOS PA ($M) 3,145 4,239 5,546 6,760 7,149 8,076 8,414 8,231 7,814 7,213 6,338 Growth rate (%) NA (2.2) (5.1) (7.7) (12.1) SLIDE 15

16 Power Amplifier Market POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET (CONTINUED) POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET VALUE (CONTINUED) $12B $11.2B $11.4B $10.6B $9.8B $9B $6.8B $7.4B $0.2B $8.5B $0.4B $9.2B $0.8B $1.6B $2.8B $4.0B $5.1B $6B $5.6B CMOS PA Other $3B $3.2B $4.3B $5.5B $6.8B $7.1B $8.1B $8.4B $8.2B $7.8B $7.2B $6.3B $3.1B $4.2B $0B KEY DRIVERS ARE INCREASE IN NUMBER OF SMARTPHONES AND MULTIPLE POWER AMPLIFIERS PER SMARTPHONE SLIDE 16

17 POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET (CONTINUED) POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET BY MODULE GSM (GPRS/EDGE) (MU) 979 1,045 1, Growth rate (%) NA (25.1) (21.5) (12.8) (1.3) (12.3) (17.0) (13.0) (22.7) UMTS (HSDPA/HSUPA) (MU) 1,025 1,458 1,879 2,372 2,724 2,824 2,637 2,621 2,457 2,286 2,079 Growth rate (%) NA (6.6) (0.6) (6.3) (7.0) (9.0) LTE (MU) ,502 2,042 2,620 3,236 3,885 4,524 5,017 Growth rate (%) NA NA Subtotal (MU) 2,004 2,552 3,263 4,028 4,858 5,417 5,800 6,334 6,738 7,155 7,362 Growth rate (%) NA FOMA (MU) Growth rate (%) NA (21.6) (31.0) (20.0) (50.0) (100.0) NA NA NA CDMA2000 1x/EV-DO (MU) Growth rate (%) NA (0.3) 2.0 (1.9) (4.0) (13.0) (10.8) (13.3) (25.9) TD-SCDMA (MU) Growth rate (%) NA (17.8) 9.4 Other (MU) Growth rate (%) NA 4.2 (24.0) (26.3) (14.3) (58.3) (100.0) NA NA NA NA TOTAL (MU) 2,398 3,071 3,878 4,686 5,524 6,091 6,474 6,969 7,358 7,676 7,853 Growth rate (%) NA SLIDE 17

18 Unit Volume of Power Amplifiers (MU) POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET (CONTINUED) POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET BY MODULE (CONTINUED) 9,000 6,969 7, , , ,000 3,878 4, , , ,824 6, , ,621 2,457 2,286 2,079 GSM/EDGE UMTS LTE CDMA2000 3,000 2, ,025 3,071 1,045 1, ,075 1, , ,724 1,502 2,042 2,620 3,236 3,885 4,524 5,017 TD-SCDMA FOMA/other SPLIT BETWEEN COMPOUND III-V AND SOI-BASED CMOS SLIDE 18

19 POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET (CONTINUED) Average selling prices for power amplifiers are rising due to increase in number of power amplifiers per handset and due to impact of contraction of vendor base Examples are merger of RF Micro Devices and TriQuint Semiconductor (Qorvo) and acquisition of Peregrine Semiconductor by Murata Manufacturing Average selling price for power amplifier module includes multiple power amplifiers and supporting functionality Market for power amplifiers is projected to be $11.4B in 2020 compared $3.2B in 2010 Large increase in market size is driven by increased complexity of power amplifier products as well as increase in unit volumes CMOS SOI-based power amplifier market is based on RF360 in near term Other companies, however, are also developing SOI-based power amplifiers If Apple or Samsung decides to adopt CMOS power amplifiers as strategic capability, market growth can be significantly higher Average number of power amplifiers per smartphone will increase over time because of need to support both multiple frequency and multiple protocols Total number of power amplifiers for handsets increases from 2.4B in 2010 to 7.9B in 2020 POWER AMPLIFIER MARKET WILL REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT SUPPLY OF WAFERS, EVEN WITH PERSPECTIVE THAT DIE SIZES ARE SMALL SLIDE 19

20 TRANSCEIVER MARKET Phones (MU) 1,561 1,775 1,950 1,992 2,038 2,063 2,047 2,024 2,002 1,984 1,969 Smartphones (MU) ,105 1,237 1,347 1,443 1,549 1,649 1,742 Other phones (MU) 1,237 1,275 1,221 1, Connected tablets (MU) Add-on cards & other (MU) TOTAL (MU) 1,619 1,962 2,303 2,494 2,575 2,675 2,615 2,645 2,673 2,700 2,731 Transceiver ASP ($) Transceiver market ($M) 6,215 7,691 9,120 10,099 10,531 11,048 10,878 11,215 11,708 11,988 12,344 KEY POTENTIAL MARKET FOR FD SOI SLIDE 20

21 TRANSCEIVER MARKET (CONTINUED) Perspective that many consumers will have multiple phones as well as other connected platforms that will require connectivity Concept of extensive connectivity is becoming mainstream on global basis Cost of connectivity is one factor that will impact number of platforms supported and amount of data that is accessed Steady increase in average selling price of transceivers is based on migration to smartphone environment and high data rates that would be supported Example is that data rates in 2010 were under 10Mbps and in 2020 will be 1Gbps Transceiver market is shown based on expectation that transceiver functionality will be primarily standalone While transceiver products are expected to be provided as multichip options, value that is shown represents standalone transceiver functionality SLIDE 21

22 TRANSCEIVER MARKET (CONTINUED) Transceiver market is projected to be $12.3B in 2020 compared to $6.2B in 2010 Technology for new designs for transceivers in 2014 is 28nm Transceiver functionality will have lagging feature dimensions compared to modem functionality, but this gap can close Market for integrated transceivers and modems will be small because modem is being integrated with application processors There is option for integrated transceiver modem and application processors Market for transceivers that are integrated with power amplifiers will be small Multichip packaging will likely provide lower cost solutions This market will be loss TRANSCEIVER MARKET IS LARGE, AND FD SOI AT 28nm IS BEST TECHNOLOGY IN SHORT TERM SLIDE 22

23 RF Wi-Fi Market WI-FI MARKET $6B $5.4B $5.0B $4.6B $4B $3.7B $4.1B $3.4B $2B $1.9B $2.2B $2.5B $2.7B $3.0B $0B STEADY GROWTH THROUGH 2020 SLIDE 23

24 WI-FI MARKET (CONTINUED) Wi-Fi market is projected to increase from $1.9B in 2010 to $5.4B in 2020 Significant part of growth of Wi-Fi market is from selling combo chips, which include Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, NFC, GPS, etc Value of these combo chips is included within Wi-Fi category Technology for Wi-Fi products for new designs is at 28nm However, number of designs are in high volume at 40nm and 65nm ac products are becoming high volume, with 2x2 being positioned for smartphones Broadcom, Quantenna Communications, Redpine Signals, MediaTek (Ralink Technology), Qualcomm, etc, are promoting ac 5GHz has challenges with penetrating walls, but beam forming increases range ad can be appropriate for line-of-sight applications and downloading large files Market for ad will need to be created, ie, support for 4K displays WI-FI HAS BECOME CRITICAL CAPABILITY FOR LOCAL AREA CONNECTIVITY SLIDE 24

25 RF Bluetooth Market BLUETOOTH MARKET $5B $4.6B $4.1B $4B $3.7B $3.3B $3B $2.7B $3.0B $2B $1.8B $1.9B $2.1B $2.3B $2.5B $1B $0B VALUES SHOWN ARE FOR STANDALONE PRODUCTS SLIDE 25

26 BLUETOOTH MARKET (CONTINUED) Bluetooth market shows relatively strong growth through 2020 There is understatement of Bluetooth s importance due to integration with Wi-Fi in combo chips There continues to be standalone market for Bluetooth for connectivity of headsets, printers, automotive, etc Bluetooth Smart is gaining momentum rapidly High growth area is voice and high definition audio over Bluetooth Algorithm support represents high growth market with acquisition of SMSC by Microchip Technology, indicating high value of multimedia algorithm functionality CSR continues to be leader of standalone Bluetooth products, with Broadcom being leader of integrated solutions Other Bluetooth vendors include MediaTek, RDA, Marvell Technology Group, TI, etc Technologies for standalone and integrated Bluetooth products are in 40nm and 28nm Drivers include low cost and low power BLUETOOTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH VOLUME, MAINSTREAM CAPABILITY SLIDE 26

27 NFC MARKET NFC is starting to experience strong growth, with large upside potential in multiple geographic regions Apple s support for NFC will build momentum Wide range of activities to develop NFC in China China Mobile is key driver (acquisition of partial ownership in bank in Pudong) NFC is linked into smart cards in China NFC is natural extension to transaction-based mobile platforms NFC technology is becoming relatively reliable, which can support adoption for mainstream transactions NXP Semiconductor is leader in NFC INSIDE Secure has number of licenses, including Intel NFC UNIT VOLUME HAS HIGH GROWTH IN SMARTPHONE MARKET SLIDE 27

28 ZIGBEE MARKET ZigBee has not shown high growth to date This is primarily because of continued reduction in power consumption and low cost solutions provided by Bluetooth ZigBee is used in surveillance and security applications that have strong growth potential from small market base ZigBee is also being adopted in lighting Marvell is one of key supporters Underlying technology within ZigBee, however, has potential for adoption in wide range of applications in future because of low power ZIGBEE MARKET HAS RISKS SLIDE 28

29 RF MEMS MARKET RF MEMS represents relatively new area of RF technology, but with very high growth potential Key challenge will be cost competitiveness of silicon technology versus other materials RF MEMS market is highly fragmented, but with high volume potential for products used in smartphones, eg, antenna tuning with variable capacitor and inductor RF MEMS can be standalone products, with technology integrated as part of IC products RF MEMS requires access to specialty process technology, which can often be implemented better in mature fabs than in advanced feature fabs RF MEMS can extend lifetime of many older fabs Significant amount of innovation for RF MEMS is in Europe RF MEMS REPRESENTS HIGH GROWTH SEGMENT OF MARKET SLIDE 29

30 OTHER SEGMENTS IN RF IC MARKET Power amplifiers for base stations, satellite communications, wireless backhaul communications, and other areas have growth potential Military and aerospace markets drive new technologies Wireless connectivity to cloud computing, which involves very high bandwidth digital radios, has high growth potential Broadband fiber is higher cost than broadband wireless, but with higher levels of security THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EMERGENCE OF NEW RF PROTOCOLS, WHICH CAN GIVE HIGH GROWTH MARKET SLIDE 30

31 SUMMARY OF RF MARKET RF market is segmented into wide range of technologies and feature dimensions Power amplifiers represent high growth area, with RF modules increasing level of complexity Power amplifiers are increasingly based on SOI Transceivers have high growth potential for FD SOI, with 28nm being key technology node Bluetooth Smart and Bluetooth mesh network are expected to be widely used in IoT applications ac has very high growth potential Critical requirement is need for lower power RF IC MARKET HAS VERY HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL KEY TECHNOLOGIES INCLUDE SOI AND FD SOI RF MEMS, which includes wide range of functions, has high growth potential in mobile market SLIDE 31