The UK Retail Hierarchy

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1 The UK Retail Hierarchy A Developer s Perspective Dr Richard Barkham, Group Research Director

2 Mayfair

3 Belgravia

4 Liverpool Europe s s Largest Urban Regeneration Project

5 UK s largest city centre regeneration project Extending and recreating the prime retail heart

6 The Scheme Retail 1,650,000 sq. ft Leisure 230,000 sq. ft Residential 364 units Hotels 2 Open space 2.2 hectares Total development 2,500,000 sq. ft Site area 42 acres Value 900m approx. Cost m

7 Property Development Economics Value 900,000-10% 855,000 Land 100, % 110,000 Construction 400, % 440,000 Finance 200, % 220,000 Fees 50, % 55,000 Profit 150,000 30,000 Profit on Cost 20% 4%

8 Where Does Value Come From? Discount Rent Per Square Foot Net Space (Square Feet) Income Prime Pitch 0% ,000 15,000,000 Off Prime 1 30% ,000 10,500,000 Off Prime 2 40% ,000 12,600,000 Off prime 3 60% ,000 7,560,000 Totals 1,400,000 45,660,000 Yield 5% Value 913,200,000

9 Shopper Flows Drive Rent Levels Prime Rents According to Shopping Population y = x M eadowhall 400 Brent Cross M anchester 350 M etro Centre Newcastle Birmingham Lakeside 300 Cambridge 250 Oxford Leeds Richmond 200 Cardiff Nottingham 150 Merry Hill Liverpool Glasgow Durham Bolton 100 Grimsby Hull 50 Burton Perth , , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000

10 Y=544x As Well As Scarcity of Space Prime Rents According to Number of Square Foot of Retail Per Shopper 450 Brent Cross Meadowhall 400 Metro Centre 350 Lakeside 300 Liverpool 250 Cambridge Oxford 200 M erry Hill Richmond Bolton 150 Hull Durham 100 Grimsby 50 Perth - Burton

11 Shopper Flows: the National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns Fully dispersed national household survey Records shopping destination preferences of household for comparison, convenience and bulky goods Household questionnaires every two years since 1996 Households in 67% of all UK postcodes have contributed Survey identifies most often shopper flows Survey identifies 10,000 primary food and nonfood shopping destinations in GB Catchments are derived by allocating every zone (postal sector typically) where at least one household reported visiting the centre Survey carried out by CBRE Ltd.

12 UK Comparison Goods Trading Locations

13 Overview of the Retail Hierarchy Group Shopping Catchment Rents Population Population Group Group Group Average Average Average Super-Regional 1,730,685 30,842, Metropolitan Regional 719,760 5,185, Major City Regional 568,237 3,218, Major Out of Town Regional 356,289 5,831, Regional 357,636 2,419, Out of Town Regional 143,647 2,087, Major Sub Regional 204,288 1,400, Out of Town Major District 28, , Major District 60, , Minor District 17, , Local 1, , Fashion Park 28, ,137 n/a Outlet Centre 7, ,637 n/a Retail Park 2, ,363 n/a Non Domestic 8, ,968 n/a

14 Liverpool Baseline Catchment Area NSLSP 2002 Potential Market Penet- Source Market Size ration of Trade (Pop 000s) (Pop 000s) (% across) (% down) Core Secondary 1, Tertiary Total 3, Core Catchment Secondary Catchment Tertiary Catchment

15 Liverpool Catchment: First-Choice Destination by Postal Sector NSLSP 2002 CATCHMENT DEFINITION Note: The criteria for delineating the zones shown on the map opposite is based on dominance (the area in which the named trading location is the first-choice destination - i.e. achieves the highest penetration on a postal sector basis). Blackpool Preston Southport St Helens Liverpool Birkenhead Other Wigan Other Warrington Other Other Chester Other Other

16 Background to The Scheme: Evolution of the UK Retail Hierarchy London - West End London - West End London - West End London - West End London - West End London - West End Glasgow Glasgow Birmingham Glasgow Glasgow Glasgow Liverpool Liverpool Glasgow Birmingham Leeds Birmingham Manchester Birmingham Edinburgh Manchester Nottingham Leeds Birmingham Edinburgh Leeds Edinburgh Chester Nottingham Edinburgh Manchester Nottingham Leeds Cardiff Manchester Leeds Newcastle-upon-Tyne Manchester Nottingham Southampton Southampton Newcastle-upon-Tyne Leeds Newcastle-upon-Tyne Cardiff Norwich Cardiff Nottingham Croydon Sheffield Newcastle-upon-Tyne Reading Norwich Sheffield Sheffield Liverpool Chester Manchester Bluewater Leicester Nottingham Cardiff Croydon Bluewater Chester Cardiff Cardiff Croydon Cambridge Edinburgh Reading Kingston Upon Hull Leicester Bristol Liverpool Kingston-Upon-Thames Liverpool Kingston Upon Thames Bristol Chester Southampton Merry Hill Centre Newcastle-upon-Tyne Bradford Southampton Brighton Brighton Birmingham Leicester Croydon Wolverhampton Wolverhampton Sheffield Guildford Edinburgh Wolverhampton Kingston Upon Thames Leicester Bath Liverpool Kingston-Upon-Thames Coventry Kingston Upon Hull Exeter Bristol Leicester Brighton Southampton Reading Plymouth Plymouth Newcastle-upon-Tyne Merry Hill Plymouth Plymouth Swansea Southend on Sea Bristol Meadowhall

17 Part three Retail Scheme

18 CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT EXISTING MRA CITY CENTRE ROPE WALKS WATERFRONT KINGS WATERFRONT GRADE LEVEL KEY: Existing prime retail Anchor stores Key pedestrian routes Tram routes Connections Retail Car parks Bus station

19 HIGH LEVEL KEY: Leisure Residential Hotels

20 Computer generated image view towards the water

21 SOUTH JOHN STREET SOUTH JOHN STREET

22 South John Street

23

24

25 PARADISE STREET

26 Paradise Street

27 Paradise Street - Finishes

28 PETER S LANE PETER S LANE

29 Peters Lane

30 HANOVER STREET HANOVER STREET

31 Hanover Street

32 THE PARK THE PARK

33 The Park

34 The Park

35 The Site

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