Outlook for Olefins & Polyolefins.and the Great Energy Price Deflation

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1 IHS CHEMICAL Presentation Outlook for Olefins & Polyolefins.and the Great Energy Price Deflation Presented to: Indian Oil 4 th Petrochemical Conclave Tony Potter Vice President, APAC IHS Chemical Insight Singapore

2 Best-in-Class Brands Brought together to form the most comprehensive source for Economic, Energy and Chemical market research and expertise in the world. GLOBAL INSIGHT

3 Chemical Investments Seek A Sustainable Advantage Energy & Feedstocks make up 60-70% of the costs of chemical production. Investments seek a competitive advantage in energy and feedstock costs. Demand Growth Proximity to demand growth essential without distinct cost or technology advantage. Trade access is also key. Technology Technology to enable competitive production costs, economies of scale, high performance products. First to market is important.

4 Olefins & Polyolefins Energy Price Deflation Agenda Shift in Energy Fundamentals & Economic Impact Winners and Losers Olefin/Polyolefin Response Capacity Build Trade Industry Cost Structure Prices 4

5 2012:1Q 2012:2Q 2012:3Q 2012:4Q 2013:1Q 2013:2Q 2013:3Q 2013:4Q 2014:1Q 2014:2Q 2014:3Q 2014:4Q 2015:1Q 2015:2Q 2015:3Q 2015:4Q 2016:1Q 2016:2Q 2016:3Q 2016:4Q Quarterly average price per barrel Oil prices expected to bottom in Q on continued strength in US production and weak demand Dated Brent and other benchmark crude oil price outlook to 2016 $130 $120 Outlook $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 Brent WTI Cushing LLS Notes: LLS = Louisiana Light Sweet. WTI = West Texas Intermediate. Disclaimer: Historical oil price data are extracted or derived by IHS from Platts. All rights reserved. All liability for errors and omissions is hereby excluded by Platts and its sources. No representations or warranties are made by Platts or its sources concerning the data or any conclusions to be drawn from it. Source: IHS; Platts, 2014 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (historical) 2014 IHS Low price environment will persist for months before returning to a level that can support necessary investments in reserve growth and new production 5

6 Key Messages Regarding Oil Market Dynamics The oil price decline that began in June 2014 was triggered by Libya s production return. However it was the underlying strength of US and non-opec supply amid weak global demand that exacerbated the effects. OPEC will let markets decide the clearing price for oil for the time being, keeping markets oversupplied. This signals that oil prices have free rein to respond to other supply and demand inputs to strike a balance. US shale oil and gas investment will likely slow in 2015, but the impact on production growth will likely be less severe. Companies will ignore poor producing areas and remain focused on high-yield sweet spots. Crude oil and refined products demand remains relatively weak. Lower prices may allow an upside surprise but that additional demand will be insufficient to balance the market this is a supply-side issue. 6

7 Crude Oil Vs. Natural Gas: Advantage of $10-$15/MMBtu for Gas Based Chemicals Declines Natural Gas, $/MMBtu Crude, $/Barrel Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Natural Gas WTI Brent 0

8 In the Global Economy Who is Helped and Who is Hurt by Lower Oil Prices? Who is helped? US consumers.annual fuel savings of at least $80 billion. European consumers will benefit less because of high gasoline taxes. Emerging market consumers will also benefit less because of large fuel subsidies. Energy-intensive industries (e.g. agriculture, transportation and shipping). Governments in oil-importing countries with large fuel subsidies. Who is hurt? Oil producers, especially those with high costs. Major oil exporters, especially those with difficult public finances where the fiscal break-even point is above $100 per barrel, including Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. Net effect: In the US, the net effect on consumers and producers is still a small positive. Similarly, the net effect on the global economy is a small boost to growth. The drop in oil prices represents a transfer of $1.5 trillion annually from oil exporters to oil importers. 8

9 Lower Oil Price Scenario: Results in Assumption of Higher Growth in the World Economy in Real GDP; Percentage Change (Year on Year) Baseline Low Oil Price Scenario 9

10 Olefins & Polyolefins Energy Price Deflation Agenda Shift in Energy Fundamentals & Economic Impact Winners and Losers Olefin/Polyolefin Response Capacity Build Trade Industry Cost Structure Prices 10

11 World Ethylene Supply/Demand Profile 2014 Production by Feedstock Demand by End-Use Propane 9% Butane 5% Naphtha 46% HDPE 29% LDPE 14% LLDPE 18% Ethane 35% Others 1% Gas Oil 3% Ethylene Oxide 15% EDC 10% 2014 Production Estimate = 137 Million Metric Tons Ethylbenzene 6% Vinyl Acetate 1% Other 4% Alpha Olefins 3%

12 A Time of Coal and Ethane Incremental Ethylene Capacity , Million Metric Tons Rest of Asia China MDE/Afr Europe Americas Naphtha & Heavier LPG Ethane Coal/ Methanol Others 12

13 United States Basic Chemicals Growth 2000/2010 versus 2010/2020 Million Metric Tons Benzene Chlroine Methanol Propylene Ethylene Chlorine 00 to to 20

14 China Ethylene Capacity Additions New Ethylene Capacity, Million Metric Tons Steam Cracker Coal/Methanol Based Other

15 Despite huge CTO based PE capacity, China imports will continue to grow Million Metric Tons Nameplate Capacity Total Production Imports 15

16 India Import Requirement Grows Despite New Capacity Build Million Metric Tons, Equivalent Ethylene Net Exports Net Imports Ethylene Vinyls Styrenics Polyethylene Glycol Others Net Trade

17 Coal and Propane Drive Propylene Incremental Propylene Capacity , Million Metric Tons Rest of Asia China MDE/Afr Europe Americas Steam Cracker FCC Coal/ Methanol PDH Others

18 Alternate technologies will make China more self sufficient in PP Million Metric Tons Nameplate Capacity Total Production Imports 18

19 Olefins & Polyolefins Energy Price Deflation Agenda Shift in Energy Fundamentals & Economic Impact Winners and Losers Olefin/Polyolefin Response Capacity Build Trade Industry Cost Structure Prices 19

20 Ethylene Production Cash Costs Show Dramatic Responses to Changing Feedstock Differentials World Ethylene Cash Cost Comparison; US Dollars Per Metric Ton U.S. Ethane Western Canada U.S. Weighted Average China CTO US GTO West Europe Naphtha Northeast Asia Naphtha Southeast Asia Naphtha US MTO China MTO Source: IHS

21 12 M M J S N 13 M M J S N 14 M M J S N 15 M M J S N 16 M M J S N Regional Ethylene Prices Decline With Crude Driven by Pause in Demand; Lower Costs for Price Setters Global Monthly Ethylene Prices; US Dollars Per Metric Ton 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, US Average Acquisition Price WEP Contract Price SEA CFR Spot Price 21

22 PE prices likely to remain weak US Dollars per metric ton 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Spread Naphtha, C&F Japan LLDPE, CFR China LLDPE, CFR SEA 22

23 Olefins & Polyolefins Energy Price Deflation Conclusions Defining factor in new energy world order is OPEC stepping down from the role of supply buffer to maintain price. All base chemicals and derivatives & plastics markets adjusting to this new energy environment Price setters have lower cost prices will decline unless tight markets exist Demand pause, likely to see surge once crude markets are stable; trade patterns likely to shift; look for higher volatility as a result Approved new capacity in advantaged regions continue; new projects pause Integrated margins for low-cost producers decline, some high-cost producers see margin improvement 23

24 IHS CHEMICAL Presentation Outlook for Olefins & Polyolefins.and the Great Energy Price Deflation THANK YOU Tony Potter Vice President, APAC IHS Chemical Insight

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