Sea Level Rise Adaptation Planning for Halifax Harbour

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1 Sea Level Rise Adaptation Planning for Halifax Harbour Halifax Regional Municipality Geological Survey of Canada Natural Resources Canada D.L. Forbes GSC 2 Oct 2003

2 Outline Rationale and Objective Project Plan Key findings of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 4 (IPCC AR4) Coastal climate issues in HRM 100-year water level projections Current work and next steps

3 The Partners Funding Contributors: Halifax Regional Municipality Natural Resources Canada NS Department of Energy Halifax Port Authority In-Kind Expertise: Natural Resources Canada Applied Geomatics Research Group (NSCC) Dalhousie University NS Department of Natural Resources

4 Rationale and Objective Information is the foundation for adaptation Science should inform the planning process Some conventional practices may not be appropriate or sustainable

5 Project Plan Create Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using LiDAR mapping Identify future sea level rise & flooding risk Map future flood hazard zones Conduct Vulnerability analysis Public and stakeholder consultation Define adaptation options Apply results into the draft Harbour Plan

6 Airborne LiDAR: a tool for building high-resolution DEMs Point Pleasant Park, Halifax,

7 Committee-of-the-Whole, Halifax Regional Council, Halifax February Harbour 9, 2010 DEM

8 Key IPCC AR4 findings on coasts Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks Impacts of climate change compounded by human activities Costs of adaptation less than inaction

9 Past, Present and Future Global Sea Level IPCC AR4 2007

10 Projected global temperature increase and sea level rise by 2100 Source: IPCC WG1 (2007) Summary for Policy Makers

11 Global sea level appears to be tracking well above model projections observed projected Source: Rahmstorf et al Recent climate observations compared to predictions. Science, 316, 709.

12 Measuring Relative Sea Level Relative sea level rise includes both sea level rise and land subsidence Subsidence is measured using precise GPS Tide gauges measure relative sea level GPS staff RSL rise sea level rise subsidence or uplift tide gauge

13 Ongoing Subsidence GPS data from the pillar at BIO reflects subsidence at Halifax Trend is -1.6 ± 0.3 mm/yr (16 ± 3 cm/century)

14 Halifax Relative Sea Level (RSL) long-term trend = +3.2 ± mm/yr (= 32 ± 1 cm/century) monthly mean water level

15 Sea Level Rise (SLR) in year 2100 SLR of 0.57 m (upper bound of AR4 projections adjusted to 100 years) + subsidence of 0.16 ± 0.03 m 0.73 m relative sea level rise (RSLR) Likely an underestimate AR4 estimates do not take account of accelerated outflow from major ice sheets

16 Importance of Storms: Hurricane Juan September 29, 2003 A weak Class 2 hurricane Eastern eyewall passed directly over Halifax Harbour Significant wave heights reached 9.0 m Water levels reached 2.1 m The surge did not coincide with high tide Water levels could have reached 2.8 m Hurricane Juan aftermath in HRM D.L. Forbes GSC 2 Oct 2003

17

18 Three scenarios for extreme water levels Scenario 1 RSLR at current rate = 0.32m (no climate change) 1a, 1b, 1c are events with return periods 2, 10, 50 yr Scenario 2 RSLR at upper bound of A1FI scenario (IPCC, 2007) = 0.73m 2a, 2b, 2c as above Scenario 3 RSLR = 1.46m 3c is 50-year event (like 2c) 3d is Juan storm surge on highest tide

19 Range of Probable Levels Scenario 2 RSLR at upper bound of A1FI scenario (IPCC, 2007) = 0.73m 2c Event with 50 yr return period = 2.67m Scenario 3 RSLR at Rahmstorf et al observations = 1.46 m 3c Event with 50-year return period = 3.4m

20 5 metre contour Scenario 1a Downtown Halifax No climate change. RSL continues rising at the historic level in Halifax Harbour (0.32±0.01 m per century). Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 2-yr return level: = 1.88 ± 0.03 m Storm Surge Conditions Only

21 Scenario 1b No climate change. RSL continues rising at the historic level in Halifax Harbour (0.32±0.01 m per century). Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 10-yr return level: = 2.07 ± 0.06 m Storm Surge Conditions Only

22 Scenario 1c No climate change. RSL continues rising at the historic level in Halifax Harbour (0.32±0.01 m per century). Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 50-yr return level: = 2.26 ± 0.15 em Storm Surge Conditions Only

23 Scenario 2a IPCC AR4 upper-limit projection of SLR for A1FI emission scenario, adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 2-yr return level: = 2.29 ± 0.05 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR. Storm Surge Conditions Only

24 Scenario 2b IPCC AR4 upper-limit projection of SLR for A1FI emission scenario, adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 10-yr return level: = 2.48 ± 0.08 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR. Storm Surge Conditions Only

25 Scenario 2c IPCC AR4 upper-limit projection of SLR for A1FI emission scenario, adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 50-yr return level: = 2.67 ± 0.17 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR. Storm Surge Conditions Only

26 Scenario 3c Scientific observations since IPCC AR4 (Rahmstorf et al) adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 50-yr return level: = 3.4 ± 0.2 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR. Storm Surge Conditions Only

27 Depth Scenario 2c >2.0 Storm Surge Conditions Only Scenario 2B IPCC AR4 upper-limit projection of SLR for A1FI emission scenario, adjusted to 100 years, is m. extent and depth of flooding Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. 50-yr return level 100 years in the future is: = 2.67 ± 0.17 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR.

28 Depth of Flooding (metres above CGVD28) Depth Scenario 3c >2.0 Storm Surge Conditions Only Scientific observations since IPCC AR4 (Rahmstorf et al) adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 50-yr return level: = 3.4 ± 0.2 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR.

29 Storm Surge Conditions Only No climate change. RSL continues rising at the historic level in Halifax Harbour (0.32±0.01 m per century). Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 2-yr return level: = 1.88 ± 0.03 m Scenario 1a Downtown Dartmouth

30 Storm Surge Conditions Only No climate change. RSL continues rising at the historic level in Halifax Harbour (0.32±0.01 m per century). Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 10-yr return level: = 2.07 ± 0.06 m Scenario 1b

31 Storm Surge Conditions Only No climate change. RSL continues rising at the historic level in Halifax Harbour (0.32±0.01 m per century). Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 50-yr return level: = 2.26 ± 0.15 em Scenario 1c

32 Storm Surge Conditions Only IPCC AR4 upper-limit projection of SLR for A1FI emission scenario, adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 2-yr return level: = 2.29 ± 0.05 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR. Scenario 2a

33 Storm Surge Conditions Only IPCC AR4 upper-limit projection of SLR for A1FI emission scenario, adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 10-yr return level: = 2.48 ± 0.08 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR. Scenario 2b

34 Storm Surge Conditions Only IPCC AR4 upper-limit projection of SLR for A1FI emission scenario, adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 50-yr return level: = 2.67 ± 0.17 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR. Scenario 2c

35 Storm Surge Conditions Only Scientific projection since IPCC AR4 (Rahmstorf et al) adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 50-yr return level: = 3.4 ± 0.2 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR. Scenario 3c

36 Storm Surge Conditions Only Depth Scenario 2c Depth of Flooding (metres above CGVD28) >2.0 IPCC AR4 upper-limit projection of SLR for A1FI emission scenario, adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 50-yr return level: = 2.67 ± 0.17 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR.

37 Storm Surge Conditions Only Depth Scenario 3c Depth of Flooding (metres above CGVD28) >2.0 Scientific projection since IPCC AR4 (Rahmstorf et al) adjusted to 100 years, is m. Storm climate (frequency and intensity) is assumed to remain unchanged. The 100-year water level is: 50-yr return level: = 3.4 ± 0.2 ± e m where e is unquantified error associated with the estimate of SLR.

38 Recommendation IPCC upper limit for A1FI scenario (Scenario 2c) for RSLR = 0.73m Potential flood extent in 2100 = 2.67m (includes storm event with a 50-year return period) Scenario 2c is plausible but could be exceeded Scenario 2c At this time, Scenario 2c does not include wave runup and seiche Add 1m precautionary buffer = 3.7m Add 2m precautionary buffer = 4.7m

39 Current Work and Next Steps Public/stakeholder understanding and support for model and recommended scenario Model for wave runup and seiche Determine Vulnerability of Harbourfront properties Develop adaptation options and strategy Incorporate into Halifax Harbour Plan

40 Vulnerability Matrix: elements Natural Environment Elevation Slope Shoreline Flood Levels Scenarios 1a,b,c Scenarios 2a,b,c Scenario 3c,d Built Environment Structure Ownership Land Use Infrastructure Essential Service Dangerous/Hazardous Materials EMO Implications

41 Current Work and Next Steps Develop Adaptation Options Prepare range of tools based on vulnerability & site specifics Minimum ground elevations Engineered solutions Future Land Use Avoidance/retreat Incorporate measures (policies/regs) into Harbour Plan

42 Current Work and Next Steps Other Considerations Incorporate RSLR into corporate decision making Adaptation can be phased over time Life cycles of infrastructure & buildings Intergovernmental collaboration key Regular Monitoring IPCC AR5 findings in 2013 Land use policy revisions

43 Direction Sought Council feedback on RSLR model and findings to year 2100 Acceptance in principle of Scenario 2c (upper bound of A1FI) RSLR + 50-year storm event = 2.67m Add precautionary buffer for wave action Request staff to conduct public/stakeholder consultation

44 Robinson s Island, North Shore, PEI Project Team James Boxall,, Dalhousie John Charles, HRM Don Forbes, NRCan Paul Fraser, NRCan Dave Frobel, NRCan Chris Hopkinson, AGRG Maria Jacobs, HRM Raymond Jahncke,, Dalhousie Amanda Kosloski,, Dalhousie Gavin Manson, NRCan Suzanne Monette,, AGRG Darren Talbot, HRM Bob Taylor, NRCan Keith Thompson, Dalhousie Dan Utting,, DNR Roger Wells, HRM Dustin Whalen, NRCan

45 Beyond Halifax Harbour Motion of Council (Jan./10) re. Report on Climate Change Adaptation Report in progress and will address: HRM initiatives Provincial initiatives (and HRM s participation) Federal initiatives (and HRM s participation) Report completion target: March, 2010

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