World Oil and Gas Resources, Consumption, and New Trends according to US EIA

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1 World Oil and Gas Resources, Consumption, and New Trends according to US EIA For Penn State Extension's Marcellus Education Webinar May 15 th, 2014 Washington, DC By, Industry Economist Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 EIA mission: independent statistics and analysis EIA was created by act of Congress in 1977 EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment EIA is the Nation's premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government 2

3 EIA s data collection system integrates all energy sectors Complete list of EIA s active surveys and forms at 3

4 Schematic representation of EIA surveys on petroleum marketing data collection 4

5 Schematic representation of EIA surveys on natural gas marketing data collection Monthly Natural Gas Marketer Survey Monthly Report of Natural Gas Purchases and Deliveries to Consumers EIA-910 EIA-857 Power Plant Operations Report EIA-923 EIA-176 Annual Report of Natural and Supplemental Gas Supply and Disposition EIA-191 EIA-912 Monthly Underground Gas Storage Report Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report FE-746R EIA-176 Natural Import Gas and Imports Export of and Natural Exports Gas Annual Report of of Natural and and Supplemental Gas Gas Supply and and Disposition EIA-64A EIA-816 EIA-757 EIA-176 Annual Annual Report Report of Natural of Natural and Supplemental and Gas Supply Gas Supply and Disposition and Disposition Annual Report of the Origin of Natural Gas Liquids Production Monthly Natural Gas Liquids Report Natural Gas Processing Survey EIA-914 EIA-23S EIA-23L Monthly Natural Gas Production Report Annual Survey of Domestic Oil and Gas Reserves (Field Version and Summary Version) 5

6 The energy industry and markets rely heavily on EIA s data EIA s weekly release of petroleum and natural gas data has an immediate impact on markets 10:30 am EIA petroleum data released Data Represent NYMEX Light, Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Near-Month Futures Contract July 5, 2012 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP (July 9, 2012) after the release of EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 10:30 am EIA natural gas data released Data Represent NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Near-Month Futures Contract July 6, 2012 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP (July 9, 2012) after the release of the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report 6

7 The world energy consumption will remain heavily reliant on hydrocarbon sources world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 34% 28% 22% 28% 27% 23% 15% Share of world total 11% 7% 5% Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

8 Developing countries will exceed developed countries in liquids consumption million barrels per day History 2010 Projections Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

9 Developing nations account for over 70 percent of the growth in natural gas consumption world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

10 U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United States and the rest of the world Logistics infrastructure investment Refinery operations/investment Exports of petroleum products Exports of crude oil and natural gas (LNG) World energy trade 10

11 Currently, more than 50% of natural gas and more than 40% of oil production in the U.S. is from shale and other tight resources Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through March 2014 and represent EIA s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). 11

12 An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production million cubic feet per year 1 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

13 Oil and gas producing wells in the U.S. according to EAI U.S. energy mapping system 13

14 Shale basins and plays in the U.S. according to EIA U.S. energy mapping system Penn State Extension's Marcellus Education, May 15th,

15 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on data from various published studies. Canada and Mexico plays from ARI. 15

16 Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2012 Projections U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970 Tight oil Lower 48 offshore Alaska Other lower 48 onshore Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

17 U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History Projections Consumption Net imports 60% 40% 25% 32% Domestic supply Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

18 Shale gas leads U.S. production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2012 Projections Shale gas Non-associated onshore Tight gas Non-associated offshore Associated with oil Coalbed methane Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

19 U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 100 Consumption 75 Domestic supply 50 Net exports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

20 Likewise, U.S. natural gas trade is projected to increase U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year History tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day) Projections 2025 billion cubic feet per day Pipeline imports from Canada 2.0 tcf of imports (5.4 bcf/day) Pipeline exports to Mexico Pipeline exports to Canada Lower 48 states LNG exports Alaska LNG exports LNG imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

21 The Shale Revolution: Basins with assessed shale oil and shale gas formations within 42 countries Source: United States basins from U.S. Energy Information Administration and United States Geological Survey, other basins from ARI based on data from various published studies 21

22 Technically recoverable shale oil and shale gas resources in the context of total world resources Crude oil Wet natural gas (billion barrels) (trillion cubic feet) Outside the United States Shale oil and shale gas ,634 Non-shale 2 2,847 13,817 Total 3,134 20,451 Increase in total resources due to inclusion of shale oil and shale gas 10% 48% Shale as a percent of total 9% 32% United States 3 Shale / tight oil and shale gas Non-shale 164 1,766 Total 223 2,431 Increase in total resources due to inclusion of shale oil and shale gas 35% 38% Shale as a percent of total 26% 27% Total World Shale / tight oil and shale gas 345 7,299 Non-shale 3,012 15,583 Total 3,357 22,882 Increase in total resources due to inclusion of shale oil and shale gas 11% 47% Shale as a percent of total 10% 32% Source: 1. ARI 2013; 2.O&GJ Dec and USGS 2012; 3. U.S. EIA 22

23 Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources not necessarily economically recoverable Shale gas Rank Country Trillion cubic feet 1 China 1,115 2 Argentina Algeria United States Canada Mexico Australia South Africa Russia Brazil 245 World total 7,299 Shale oil Rank Country Billion barrels 1 Russia 75 2 United States 58 3 China 32 4 Argentina 27 5 Libya 26 6 Australia 18 7 Venezuela 13 8 Mexico 13 9 Pakistan 9 10 Canada 9 World total 345 Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI. Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet and U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels. 23

24 The promise of shale oil from Neuquen basin of Argentina Argentina has world-class shale gas and shale oil potential possibly the most prospective outside of North America primarily within the Neuquen basin (583 Tcf out of 802 Tcf shale gas and 20 billion bbl out of 27 billion bbl shale oil) Already a major oil and gas production area from conventional and tight sandstones, the Neuquen basin is emerging as the premier shale gas and shale oil development area of South America. 24

25 The promise of shale gas from Sichuan basin in China China total: 1, 115 Tcf; 32.2 billion bbl Sichuan basin: 626 Tcf Activity: over 100 exploration wells vertical & horizontal. PetroChina, Sinopec, new startups, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips Source: EIA/ARI World Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources Assessment June

26 Foreign joint venture investment in U.S. shale plays Foreign Partner Country U.S. Partner Shale Play ($B) Year British Petroleum UK Chesapeake Woodford British Gas Group UK EXCO Marcellus StatoilHydro Norway Chesapeake Marcellus Reliance India Pioneer Eagle Ford Reliance India Atlas Marcellus Reliance India Carrizo Marcellus Total France Chesapeake Barnett CNOOC China Chesapeake Niobrara British Gas UK EXCO Haynesville Mitsui Japan Anadarko Marcellus CNOOC China Chesapeake Eagle Ford KNOC Korea Anadarko Eagle Ford Marubeni Japan Marathon Niobrara Mitsui Japan SM Energy Eagle Ford GAIL India Carrizo Eagle Ford Total France Chesapeake/EnerVest Utica Sinopec China Devon TMS, Niobrara, Utica Marubeni Japan Hunt Oil Eagle Ford Osaka Gas Japan Cabot Oil and Gas Eagle Ford Sumitomo Japan Devon Wolfcamp Sinochem China Pioneer Wolfcamp Saka Energi Indonesia Swift Energy Eagle Ford Source: Source: EIA, trade EIA, media from trade press reports as of January 10, 2013 Total

27 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review Drilling Productivity Report Today in Energy Tel:

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