San Jose, Costa Rica, 10 June 2013 Assen Gasharov, Head of IEA Training

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1 San Jose, Costa Rica, 10 June 2013 Assen Gasharov, Head of IEA Training OECD/IEA 2012

2 OECD/IEA 2012 ETP 2012 Choice of 3 Futures 2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO 2 emissions 4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency 6DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results The 2 C Scenario The 4 C Scenario The 6 C Scenario

3 OECD/IEA 2012 Clean energy: slow lane to fast track Cleaner coal power Nuclear power Renewable power CCS in power CCS in industry Buildings Industry Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track Fuel economy Electric vehicles Biofuels for transport

4 Renewables provide good news Renewable power generation 42% Average annual growth in Solar PV 75% Cost reductions in Solar PV in just three years in some countries 27% Average annual growth in wind OECD/IEA 2012

5 Number of countries (>100MW) Non-hydro sources spread out widely Growth is expected to shift beyond traditional support markets (OECD) to all regions. Number of countries with installations >100MW increases significantly Onshore wind Offshore wind Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean IEA MRMR 2012 OECD/IEA 2012

6 OECD/IEA 2012 A smart, sustainable energy system Co-generation Renewable energy resources Centralised fuel production, power and storage Smart energy system control Distributed energy resources H vehicle 2 Surplus heat EV A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

7 OECD/IEA 2012 Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency the hidden fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

8 TWh OECD/IEA 2012 Low-carbon electricity: a clean core Other Wind Solar Hydro Nuclear Biomass and waste Oil Gas with CCS Gas Coal with CCS Coal Renewables will generate more than half the world s electricity in the 2DS

9 Hydropower generation [TWh] OECD/IEA 2012 Hydropower is a giant Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Other non-oecd Asia Other Latin America China Brazil Africa and Middle East OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania OECD Americas Historic 2DS Hydropower will continue to play a major role in power generation: hydropower generation more than doubles in the 2DS compared to today.

10 OECD/IEA 2012 Natural gas Gas is is not not a a panacea Around 2030, natural gas becomes high carbon. CCS must play a role if gas use should continue to grow.

11 OECD/IEA 2012 The CCS infant must grow quickly Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Note: Capture rates in MtCO 2 /year

12 Passenger LDV sales (million) OECD/IEA 2012 Electric vehicles need to come of age FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Electricity Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline Diesel hybrid Gasoline hybrid CNG/LPG Diesel Gasoline More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050

13 million sales/year OECD/IEA 2012 Translating targets into action Manufacturers production/sales Projection (Estimated from each country's target) Projection (Estimated from each country's target) Government targets need to be backed by policy action

14 Billion households Building sector challenges differ OECD Non OECD 75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050

15 OECD/IEA 2012 Heating & Cooling: huge potential Renewable heat Integration with electricity District heating and cooling network Co-generation Surplus heat Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use. Their huge potential for cutting CO 2 emissions is often neglected.

16 OECD/IEA 2012 Clean energy investment pays off USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

17 TWh Generation share Electricity generation mix in Latin America % 3% 90% Other renewables 80% Wind 10% 5% 5% 14% 9% Other renewables Wind % Solar 60% 55% 44% 17% Solar % Hydro Hydro % Nuclear 30% 2% 4% 46% Nuclear DS 2DS Fossil w CCS 20% 39% 10% Fossil w/o CCS 0% 32% 4DS 4% 3% 8% 2DS Fossil w CCS Fossil w/o CCS In addition to hydropower, already today a large, low-carbon electricity source, also other renewables (wind, solar, biomass) become important in the 2DS to decarbonise electricity supply. OECD/IEA 2012

18 OECD/IEA 2012 A low-carbon future for Latin America Low-carbon development has already been made a priority in many countries First successes have been achieved, more ambitious actions will be necessary to meet the 2DS Many countries already have high shares of renewables in their energy mix The maintenance of a clean energy matrix and further mitigation entails opportunities and challenges

19 OECD/IEA 2012 Sustainable future still in reach Is a clean energy transition urgent? YES Are we on track to reach a clean energy future? NO Can we get on track? YES

20 OECD/IEA 2012 For much more, please visit

21 Visualising ETP Data energy flows OECD/IEA 2012

22 Visualising ETP Data reductions OECD/IEA 2012

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