MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC SCENARIO

Transcription

1 MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS ECONOMIC SCENARIO Deputy Management Office for Programming and Regulation National Office of Macroeconomic Synthesis JUNE 2014

2 Presentation o The Constitution of the Republic establishes that the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) shall implement the monetary, credit, exchange and financial policy formulated by the Executive Branch, which has as one of its objectives to: promote levels and relationships between deposit and lending interest rates that stimulate national savings and the financing of production activities, in order to maintain price stability and monetary equilibrium within the balance of payments, in accordance with the economic stability objective defined in the Constitution (Art. 302 and 303). o As such, the Fundamental Monetary and Financial Code, published in Official Record No. 332, dated September 12, 2014, stipulates that the BCE shall develop and publish the following information on its web page and/or any other media, with the frequency determined by General Management : 1. Figures corresponding to monetary, financial, credit and exchange indicators; 2. National macroeconomic synthesis statistics; 3. Interest rates; 4. Authorized payment systems and institutions authorized to operate; and, 5. Additional information required by the Board". o Within this subject matter area, the BCE publishes the economic scenario "Macroeconomic Statistics" with the latest information available, for the making of economic decisions of citizenry, domestic and foreign institutions, and government authorities. 2

3 I. REAL SECTOR II. EXTERNAL SECTOR III. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR IV. FISCAL SECTOR V. RELATED PUBLICATIONS

4 REAL SECTOR

5 The most dynamic element of GDP growth is the Household Final Consumption Expenditure, which has maintained a level of sustainable growth, particularly in the last few years. Gross Fixed Capital Formation performance (investment) is closely related to the evolution of imports of capital goods, and is also boosting economic growth GDP EXPENDITURE APPROACH EVOLUTION Millions of 2007 dollars at constant prices, Household final consumption expenditure Import of goods and services Export of goods and services Gross fixed capital formation General government final consumption expenditure Source: BCE. 5

6 ,0 The GDP average growth in was 4.3%, and in was 4.3%, both results were higher than that of the period which registered 2.4%. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Variation rates, ,0 9,0 Average Pre Dollarization Average Average Dollarization Average Annual GDP ,0-1,0-6,0 Source: BCE. 6

7 In the nineties, Petroecuador reviewed contracts and granted the operation of fields to Private corporations that increased their production. In May 2006, the expiration of the contract between the State and Occidental (Oxy) was declared, thus block 15 and the unified fields were transfered to the State. As of late 2010, State owned corporations increased their production due to the absorption of certain fields that were operated by Private corporations that left Ecuador in November of that year, in light of changes in contract modalities implemented by the National Government. 250 OIL PRODUCTION Millions of barrels, Priv. Corp. 2005: M Barrels Priv. Corp. 2013: 47.2 M Barrels Río Napo 2013: 25.7 M Barrels Priv. Corp. 1978: 0.8 M Barrels Petroecuador 1978: 72.9 M Barrels Petroecuador 1972: 28.6 M Barrels Petroecuador 1994: M Barrels Block 15, Ex-Occi. Petroamazonas EP 2013: M Barrels OCCIDENTAL CORPORATION EXPIRY May 2006 EP Petroecuador 2013: 0.0 M Barrels EP PETROECUADOR EX-OCCIDENTAL- EP PETROAMAZONAS RÍO NAPO PRIVATE CORPORATIONS Source: EP PETROECUADOR. 7

8 In May 2006, the expiration of the contract between the State and Occidental (Oxy) was declared, allowing for a greater increase of crude export levels by State owned corporations. As of August 2011, Private Corporations have not registered exports due to the change in the oil contract modality. Currently, the oil belongs to the State and Private Corporationss receive a payment for oilfield exploitation services rendered. OIL EXPORT Millions of barrels, Priv. Corp. 2004: 79.0 M Barrels Secretaría de Hidrocarburos. 2013: 16.1 M Barrels 100 Priv. Corp. 1995: 2.7 M Barrels 80 Priv. Corp. 2012: 0.0 M Barrels Priv. Corp. 1978: 0.3 M Barrels Puiblic Corp.1995: 91.4 M Barrels Puiblic Corp.2013: M Barrels 20 0 Puiblic Corp.1978: 29.6 M Barrels OCCIDENTAL CORPORATION EXPIRY May 2006 STATE OWNED CORPORATIONS SECRETARIAT OF HYDROCARBONS PRIVATE CORPORATIONS Source: EP PETROECUADOR. 8

9 Historically, the price per barrel of WTI crude has surpassed that of Ecuadorian crudes until reaching a maximum difference of USD in However, due to WTI storage problems and a better international quotation of heavy, medium and sour crude oil, as of 2011, State owned corporations managed to negotiate their crude oil at a higher price than that of WTI; and yet, as of July 2013, the price of WTI crude oil once again surpassed that of Ecuadorian crude oil ORIENTE, NAPO AND WTI CRUDE OIL ANNUAL PRICES USD per barrel, YEARS ORIENTE CRUDE OIL WTI NAPO CRUDE OIL ,4 97, Source: EP PETROECUADOR. ORIENTE CRUDE WTI NAPO CRUDE 9

10 Inflation in the majority of South American countries registered a gradual decrease. Ecuador is one of the countries with the greatest downturn with regard to prices over the last decade.* EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL INFLATION IN SOUTH AMERICA Percentages, Pre Dollarization Stage Countries Inflation Dollarization Stage Venezuela 56.2 Uruguay 8.5 Bolivia 6.5 Paraguay 3.7 Chile 3.0 Ecuador 2.7 Colombia Ecuador Chile Colombia Venezuela Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay Source: Central Banks and Statistical institutions of the analyzed countries. Note: * Data from Argentina and Peru are not included as they manifested hyperinflation,which makes visualization difficult. 10

11 Inflationary levels prior to dollarization ( ) were held at high percentages; as of the year 2001, inflationary reduction is significant and even single digit percentages have been registered in the last twelve years Pre - Dollarization INFLATION RATE Percentages, , Dollarization 60,2 60,7 49,5 49,0 43,4 31,0 30,7 25,4 25,6 22,4 22,8 9,4 8,8 6,1 2,0 3,1 2,9 3,3 4,3 3,3 5,4 4,2 2, Source: INEC. Prepared by: BCE. 11

12 Until 1997, the real wage index had displayed an upward and downward trend due to high inflation, the depreciation of the Sucre, and the financial crisis of As of the year 2004, the low inflation percentages and dollarization allowed the population to recover its purchasing power. As of 2007, the real wage indicated a greater increase. 160 REAL WAGE INDEX Base year 2000, Inflation + Devaluation Inflation Wage increases in January of each year 40 Source: INEC. Prepared by: BCE. 12

13 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Compared to December 2012, in the same month in 2013 both unemployment of the urban economically active population (EAP) and full employment decreased; while underemployment increased. LABOR MARKET INDICATORS URBAN ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION STRUCTURE Percentages, EAP in millions ,6 38,8 45,6 49,9 52,1 51,5 Full Employment ,8 50,5 47,1 44,2 39,8 43,3 Underemployment 0 7,3 7,9 6,1 5,1 5 4,9 Unemployment Source: INEC.. Prepared by: BCE. Note: Data corresponding to the non-classified unemployed are not included in the graph, which would complete 100%. 13

14 Dec. 00 Dec. 01 Dec 03 Dec. 04 Dec. 05 Dec. 06 Dec. 07 Jun. 08 Dec. 08 Dec. 09 Jun.10 Dec. 10 Jun.11 Dec. 11 Jun.12 Dec. 12 Jun.13 Dec. 13 During the period, a decreasing trend with regard to poverty index levels was observed. In December 2013, the poverty rate represented 25.6% of total population. 70,0 64,4 URBAN POVERTY BY INCOME Percentages, ,0 55,2 50,0 49,9 44,6 42,2 40,0 30,0 37,6 36,7 35,0 35,1 36,0 33,0 32,8 29,6 28,6 25,3 27,3 23,7 25,6 20,0 10,0 - Source: National Urban Employment, Underemployment and Unemployment Survey (ENEMDU). Note: Poverty, is the number of people living in poverty expressed as a total percentage of the population in a particular year The national poverty rate for December 2002 cannot be calculated due to the fact that during that period an ENEMDU was not performed in rural areas. 14

15 0 % ingresos % Income In December 2013, the Lorenz curve was closer to the 45 line, which indicates perfect equality of wealth among the population. In 2002, 3.3% of wealth was distributed among 20% of the poorest population in the country; while in 2013, the distribution of income improved, resulting in that percentage of the population having 4.3% of total wealth. LORENZ CURVE Poorest 20% in the country Wealthiest 20% in the country Percentiles (población) Percentiles (population) 45 line Source: National Urban Employment, Underemployment and Unemployment Survey (ENEMDU). Note: The Lorenz curve is a graphic representation of inequality, in order to visualize the way in which income is distributed among a group of individuals. 15

16 EXTERNAL SECTOR

17 The evolution of the Terms of Trade Index (TTI), illustrates the importance of oil in the international economic relations of the country between 1993 and TERMS OF TRADE INDEX Base year 2000=100, Pre- dollarization Dollarization With Oil Without Oil Lineal (With Oil) Source: BCE. 17

18 Millions of USD FOB Industrialized product exports (high value added), since 1993 until 2013, represented on average 22.7% of total exports. Primary product exports (low value added) represented, on average, 77.3% of total exports. Conversely, oil and non-oil exports had a 32.9% and 67.1% share respectively in , and 52.7% and 47.3% in PRIMARY AND INDUSTRIALIZED PRODUCTS EXPORTS Millions of FOB USD. Percentage Share Pre- dollarization Dollarization Primary products Industrialized products Total Exports % Primary products 82,2782,2081,1878,1880,7976,1176,1474,3473,3673,9972,8777,7177,7577,2374,2876,1775,9277,3077,6777,1680,80 % Industrialized products 17,7317,8018,8221,8219,2123,8923,8625,6626,6426,0127,1322,2922,2522,7725,7223,8324,0822,7022,3322,6719,20 Source: BCE % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

19 FOB Value in milions of USD Imports, according to Economic Use or Destination (CUODE), during the period experienced an upward trend. Raw Materials and Capital Goods reflected the greatest increase. Imports of fuels and lubricants displayed the greatest volatility. IMPORTS BY ECONOMIC USE OR DESTINATION Thousands of USD CIF Pre- dollarization Dollarization Adjustments Others Fuels and lubricants Capital goods Raw materials Consumer goods Total Imports Source: BCE. (*) Correspond to imports by the Ministry of National Defense 19

20 Millions of USD FOB In the period, the results of the non-oil trade balance were negative, while those of the oil trade balance were positive. This performance is explained mainly by the variations in the international price of crude oil. TOTAL, OIL, NON-OIL TRADE BALANCE AND AVERAGE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL Millions of FOB USD, USD, Pre - dollarization Dollarization Trade Balance Oil Trade Balance Non Oil Trade Balance Average price per oil barrel 14,93 13,63 14,84 18,02 15,57 9,20 15,17 24,87 19,16 21,82 25,66 30,13 41,01 50,75 59,86 82,95 52,56 71,92 96,93 98,14 95,63 0 Source: BCE. 20

21 As of 2007, the Services and Income Balances with regard to GDP decreased as a result of a decline in Worker Remittances received. The performance of the Current Account balance is explained in great measure by the Balance of Goods. 15% CURRENT ACCOUNT AND ITS COMPONENTS GDP Percentages % 5% 0% -5% -10% Dollarization 7,2% 6,4% 5,8% 5,9% 6,3% 6,5% 5,0% 5,0% 5,0% 5,0% 4,4% 3,4% 3,8% 3,4% 1,3% 1,5% 1,9% 2,3% 2,7% 2,8% 2,6% 2% -1% -1% -4,3% -3,8% -3,6% -3,2% -3,1% -6% -4,9% -6,8% -6,8% -6,6% -7,3% -7,4% -7,4% -6,9% -6,9% -7,1% -6,7% -6,5% -7,6% -8,7% -9,0% -10,4% -15% Source: BCE. Remittances received Services and Primary Income Goods (Registered Trade) Current Account 21

22 The result of the Current Account is financed largely by Current Transfers, whose amount is determined by Worker Remittances received. Exclusion of remittance inflows, the deficit of the Current Account would increase 3% of GDP. Worker Remittances received in 2013 amounted to USD 2,449.5 million, 0.7% less than in 2012 (USD 2,466.9 million). CURRENT ACCOUNT AND ITS COMPONENTS GDP Percentages % 6% 4% 5,2% 6,0% Dollarization 3,7% 3,7% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -5,6% -4,9% -4,9% -6,9% -6,3% -6,8% 0,0% -2,2% -4,5% -1,8% -8,6% -1,2% -1,1% -2,1% -4,3% -7,9% -9,3% -1,2% -6,2% 1,1% -1,3% -2,5% -4,8% -6,3% -2,8% 2,8% -2,1% 0,5% -3,9% -2,3% -3,8% -6,0% -0,4% -0,4% -1,3% -3,2% -3,9% -12% -14% -12,0% Current Account Current Account excluding migrant remittances Source: BCE. 22

23 In the last three years, the result of the Current Account is explained mainly by the performance of the Goods and Services and Income Balances. In 2013, the Current Account deficit was USD -1,232 million, which was determined mainly by the negative result of the Balance of Goods in the amount of USD -630 million, and by the increase in the Services and Income Balances deficit (USD -185 million) CURRENT ACCOUNT AND ITS COMPONENTS Millions of USD, Remittances received Services and Income Goods (Registered Trade) Current Account Source: BCE. 23

24 Average income received as a result of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the period was USD 1,899 million, USD 400 million more than the average income received in (USD 1,493 million). Since 2011, net FDI has increased slowly, not just as a result of received income, which has remained constant, but also as a result of a decline in disinvestment. 4000,0 3000,0 2000,0 1000,0 0,0-1000,0 189,9 Average Revenue IED USD 1,493 million 910,62 538,6-23,4-213,3-372, , ,5 (1.176,4) (1.235,0) NET FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT Millions of USD, ,1 783,3 871,5 836,9 (1.067,2) 1.398,5 493,4 (905,1) 1.979, , ,8 271,4 194,2 1057, , , ,3 931, ,5 643,6 584,6 702,8 306,3 163,1 (965,6) Average revenue IED USD 1,899 million (401,6) (347,2) (390,7) -2000,0 (1.708,3) -3000,0 (3.122,1) (2.303,4) (2.108,9) -4000,0 Source: BCE Revenue Expenditures Net Balance Average revenue IED Average revenue IED

25 From 2001 to 2013, FDI was largely allocated to the Exploitation of Mines and Quarries (USD 2,430.3 million) followed by the Manufacturing Industry (USD 1,412.4 million), Trade (USD 1,096.0 million), Services Rendered to Companies (USD million), and lastly Agriculture, Forestry, Hunting and Fishing (USD million). NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Millions of USD, Exploitation of mines and quarries 216,9 487,5 148,5 385,4 198,3-116,6-102,8 244,1 5, ,2 244,9 239,7 Manufacturing industry 60,2 66, ,9 75,4 90, ,7 118,1 121,8 135,6 134,4 Wholesale and retail repair of motor vehicules, motorcycles, personal and household goods. 0 71,7 70,4 78,1 103,3 72,5 32,3 92,2 119,9 84,2 93,5 77, ,2 Services rendered to corporations 8,7 109, ,8 73,8 89,4 84,6 142,3-23, ,9 39,5 113 Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing 24,9 15,6 49,9 72,9 23, ,5 20,4 52,2 10,6 374,2 17,8 25,1 Remaining activity branches 156,2 34,1 444,9 121,6 49,4 128,2-4,3 332,8 71,4-305,3 19,8 83,8 85,5 Source: BCE. 25

26 2% 3% 4% 16% 12% 12% 13% 12% 6% 14% 5% 7% 8% 11% 9% 14% 30% 17% 26% 15% 22% 15% 21% 13% 11% 11% 9% 7% 19% 17% 16% 35% 40% 46% 53% 51% 53% 54% 57% 65% 73% 77% In 1999, the balance of public and private debt represented 77% and 19% of GDP respectively. By 2013, this percentage had become significantly lower, despite the fact that total external debt grew in nominal terms. In late 2013, the balance of public and private external debt represented 14% and 5% of GDP respectively. 120% EVOLUTION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EXTERNAL DEBT GDP Percentages % 96% 87% 80% 60% 40% 20% 67% 56% 56% 65% 61% 64% 56% 57% 52% 47% 42% 37% 34% 27% 23% 21% 19% 18% 19% 0% Public Debt Private Debt Total Debt Source: BCE. 26

27 From the analysis of the composition of public external debt by creditor, it was determined that in 1990 international banks held 52% of total debt. By 2000, Brady and Global bonds constituted 36%, and in 2013 IFI s and governments took on a new role holding 47% and 45% of total external debt, respectively. COMPOSITION OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT Percentages Source: BCE. 27

28 MONETARY SECTOR

29 Millions of USD Price per crude oil barrel INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RESERVE AND FREE LIQUIDITY RESERVE Balance in millions of USD, ,00 Dollarization Average (USD 3,968.61) 140, ,00 120, ,00 100, ,00 80, ,00 Average (USD 1,400.97) 60, , ,00 Average (USD 1,227.92) 40,00 20,00 RI RILD - Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Source: BCE. International Monetary Reserve RILD price of Ecuadorian oil (right) * The International Monetary Reserve includes the values of contributions to international financial institutions As of 2000, these are not considered free liquidity reserve. 0,00 29

30 Annual average international reserves reached 1.55% of GDP in 1990, compared to 5.29% in 2000 and 4.33% in ANNUAL AVERAGE OF RESERVES AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP Percentages, , ,31 5,29 4,33 2 1, Average reserves / GDP Source: BCE. 30

31 Deposits in the financial system represented 8.86% of GDP in 1990, compared to 19.14% registered in 2000 and 29.21% in TOTAL DEPOSITS AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP Percentages, , , , Total Deposit-Taking / GDP Source: BCE. 31

32 The current portfolio of the financial system represented 5.80% of GDP in 1990, compared to 10.81% in 2000 and 24.63% in TOTAL CURRENT PORTFOLIO AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP Percentages, , ,81 5 5, Total Portfolio / GDP Source: BCE. 32

33 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 In December 2000, as regards to GDP, currency in circulation represented 6.12% while money supply was 11.42%, and total liquidity 26.61% compared to 7.80%, 17.22%, and 37.10% respectively by 2013.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 40% 35% MONEY SUPPLY (M1) AND TOTAL LIQUIDITY (M2) Percentages, ,10% 30% 25% 26,61% 20% 17,90% 15% 17,22% 10% 5% 5,84% 2,93% 11,42% 6,12% 7,80% 0% Source: BCE. EMC/GDP M1/GDP Liquidity/GDP 33

34 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Millions of USD By December 2000, currency in circulation totalled USD 1,120.2 million, while money supply and liquidity amounted to USD 2,092.2 and USD 4,874.7 million respectively. By 2013, banknotes, money supply and total liquidity came to USD 7,367.1, USD 16,272.4 and USD 35,051.1 million respectively. MONEY SUPPLY (M1) AND TOTAL LIQUIDITY (M2) Millions of USD, , , , , , , Source: BCE. Total Liquidity Money Supply (right) EMC (right) 34

35 Jan-93 Feb-93 Mar-93 Apr-93 May-93 Jun-93 Jul-93 Aug-93 Sep-93 Oct-93 Nov-93 Dec-93 Jan-94 Feb-94 Mar-94 Apr-94 May-94 Jun-94 Jul-94 Aug-94 Sep-94 Oct-94 Nov-94 Dec-94 Jan-95 Feb-95 Mar-95 Apr-95 May-95 Jun-95 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec-98 Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 Apr-99 May-99 Jun-99 Jul-99 Aug-99 Sep-99 Oct-99 Nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 The highest benchmark nominal lending rate in Sucres in the period was 72.63% in December 1999, while February 2000, registered the lowest level (22.72%), as a result of the Discount Law (Ley de Desagio). With regard to the benchmark nominal deposit rate in Sucres, a value of 65.60% was registered in March 1995 and 11.57% in March ,83 45,72 BENCHMARK LENDING AND DEPOSIT NOMINAL RATES IN SUCRES Percentages, ,6 71,1 72,63 46, ,13 26,27 22, ,57 0 Benchmark Nominal Deposit Rate (sucres) Benchmark Nominal Lending Rate(sucres) Source: BCE. 35

36 Jul-95 Oct-95 Jan-96 Apr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 As of July 1995, there is information available regarding the benchmark nominal lending rate in dollars. The highest level registered in the period took place in August 1995, with a value of 20.01%, while a lower level of 7.77% was registered in September of With regard to the benchmark nominal deposit rate in dollars, in November 1995 a value of 14.15% was registered and 3.48% in January REFERENTIAL LENDING AND DEPOSIT NOMINAL RATES IN DOLLARS Percentages, ,01 Pre - dollarization Dollarization ,15 10,98 11,51 6,83 13,18 7,77 9,97 5 3,97 5,07 0 Benchmark Nominal Deposit Rate (Dollars) Benchmark Nominal Lending Rate (Dollars) Source: BCE. 36

37 FISCAL SECTOR

38 Since 2000, non-oil revenue is on average higher than that of the period. Between 2007 and 2012, non-oil revenue increased its share in total revenue. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx NFPS: OIL AND NON OIL REVENUE GDP Percentages, Source: Ministry of Finance, ESIGEF (budgetary settlements), BCE. 38

39 Between 1971 and 1999, on average, tax related revenue in the form of income tax represented 1.2% of GDP, while in the period, tax revenue increased to 2.8% of GDP. 7,0 NFPS: TAX REVENUE GDP Percentages ,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,8 2,0 1,2 1,0 0,0 Income tax Tax on production and sales Average income tax revenue Source: Ministry of Finance, ESIGEF (budgetary settlements), BCE. 39

40 From 1981 to 1999, capital expenditure constituted 7.2% of GDP, this item recovered in the 2000 to 2012 period, increasing to 11.5% of GDP. 35,0 NFPS: CURRENT AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE GDP Percentages ,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 11,5 10,0 7,7 7,2 5,0 0,0 Current Expenditure Capital Expenditure Average Capital Expenditure Source: Ministry of Finance, information from the ESIGEF (budgetary settlements, gross data), BCE. Note: These percentages correspond to total dibursement (current and capital) executed during each period. Capital income takes into account the following operations: Acquisition of fixed capital assets, purchase of stock, purchase of land and intangible assets, and capital transfers. 40

41 millons of USD GDP percentages As of 2002, Ecuador has followed a macro-fiscal rule regarding a limit on public indebtedness of up to 40% of GDP. In 2013, public debt reached 24% of GDP (USD 22,847 million). The public external debt balance in 2013 was USD 12,920 million, and that of domestic debt was USD 9,927 million (13.8% and 10.6% of GDP, respectively). EVOLUTION OF PUBLIC INDEBTEDNESS Millions of USD percentages of GDP, Domestic Debt External Debt % of GDP Source: Ministry of Finance. BCE 41

42 SOL La Tolita Culture, from 400 ac. to 600 dc. The ancestral mythology of Ecuador is summed up in its display. Worked in laminated and embossed gold. National Museum DEPUTY MANAGEMENT OFFICE FOR PROGRAMMING AND REGULATION NATIONAL OFFICE OF MACROECONOMIC SYNTHESIS The reproduction of this document is permitted as long as the source is quoted.