Assumptions and Risks Module

Transcription

1 Section 6.4 Assumptions and Risks Module This module will guide you through the process of understanding the assumptions and risks associated with your project

2 THIS MODULE INCLUDES: Contents (Direct links clickable belo[abstract]w) Interactive Pages (i.e. Worksheets) will help you What Are Assumptions & Risks? What are they for? When should they be done? Who Should Be Involved? How to Do Them? Additional Resources Determining Assumptions and Risk Flowchart Checklist for Assumptions and Risk If you are interested in gaining a certificate of completion for your study and knowledge of Assumptions and Risk, please complete the Interactive Pages, and turn in completed pages to the DM&E expert at the Washington DC office. TOOLS IN THIS MODULE (You can click on the underlined tool to go directly to the location of the tool in this module.) TOOL 1: Determining Assumptions and Risk Flowchart TOOL 2: Diagonal Logic TOOL 3: Checklist for Assumptions and Risk Page 2 of 12

3 What are Assumptions and Risks? Assumptions are the unproven connections between levels in a design hierarchy, theory of change, or the project context. Common assumptions focus on: Tip: Within the logframe context, risks and assumptions are two sides of the same coin: risks are framed as potential negatives, while assumptions are framed positively. How the context will evolve: how change works Project philosophy or approach, including the strategic advantage of one approach over another Participation. In a war zone, for example, many projects assume there will be sufficient security to safely access the people or certain locations. Our understanding of how things work in life. For example, we assume that relationships built by enemies in the safety of a workshop or a structured exchange will enable them to behave differently upon their return to everyday, often-polarised environments. We assume that greater transparency will lead to better governance, rather than to well-publicised corruption. We assume that a ceasefire opens space for negotiations rather than serving as a time for restocking ammunition and reinforcing military positions. Within any theory of change (see Theory of Change module) there are two assumptions: how change works, and the strategic advantage of the chosen theory over other theories for the context. It is important to be able to clearly identify and enunciate these assumptions and their associated risks in your project proposal. The Common Ground Approach and Tool Documents (available here) are a good place to start conceptualising SFCG assumptions on specific topics and strategies with which we work. Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives. 1 Within the logic framework approach Example to project design, however, risk is formulated as the negative assumptions behind, Following or the the example facts of, the the justice project system including Timor-Leste, the interaction the project between assumes context that conditions once public and knowledge, the project. perceptions In other and words, attitudes risks in towards logic frameworks the justice system are the have potential logical been changed barriers (Objective to the achievement 1) the Timorese of the will objectives not only know for how each to level access in that the design hierarchy. system, but that the system will be capable of handling increased caseloads. 1 International Organisation for Standardisation, Risk management Principles and guidelines on implementation, Draft, ISO 31000:2009, accessed 2 February 2011, quoted in Grant Purdy, ISO 31000:2009 Settin a New Standard for Risk Management, Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 6, 2010, p. 882, accessed 02 February 2011, Page 3 of 12

4 Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives. 2 Within the logic framework approach to project design, however, risk is formulated as the negative assumptions behind, or the facts of, the project including the interaction between context conditions and the project. In other words, risks in logic frameworks are the potential logical barriers to the achievement of the objectives for each level in the design hierarchy. Wha Example There are two primary risks associated with the assumption above. First, is that once Timorese are willing to engage the justice system, they may not know where or how to do it. Therefore another project objective was developed to mitigate this risk: (2) Support the creation of referral pathways for marginalised groups to access legal advice and remedies (through training of mediators and paralegals), thereby promoting new behaviour when Timorese face legal problems. Second, the justice system, including CSOs, may not be able to handle such an increase in caseloads. A third objective was developed to mitigate this risk: (3) To enhance the capacity and sustainability of Timorese CSOs to play a more active role in justice, coordination, and peacebuilding processes, and to manage these functions in the long-term without external assistance. What are they for? It is important to identify and analyse the core assumptions behind your project to ensure the choices made can be logically justified. Being aware of assumptions allows you to identify opportunities for integrated programming to spark synergy and leverage greater results. Identifying key assumptions is also important for determining whether your project is viable (see Determining Assumptions and Risk flowchart under How to Do Them? ). Any project has the potential to create unwanted consequences and to be negatively affected by internal and external factors. Identifying those risk factors and consequences before the project starts and allowing time to make deliberate decisions about the best way to move forward is critical. As interveners in a conflict it is our obligation to ensure that we first Do No Harm (see here) in our intervention, directly or indirectly. Understanding the potential risks involved in a project is therefore critical to developing a project that does not exacerbate local conditions, and hopefully contributes to the betterment of the context. Tip: Once a key risk associated with a core assumption has been identified, mitigate that risk by incorporating new elements in your project design: add or change an objective or activity so that the likelihood of that risk is reduced. 2 International Organisation for Standardisation, Risk management Principles and guidelines on implementation, Draft, ISO 31000:2009, accessed 2 February 2011, quoted in Grant Purdy, ISO 31000:2009 Setting a New Standard for Risk Management, Risk Analysis, Vol. 30, No. 6, 2010, p. 882, accessed 02 February 2011, Page 4 of 12

5 When should they be done? It is important to identify and analyse assumptions early in the design process, ideally in conjunction with the creation of the levels of the design hierarchy (see Goals & Objectives module, p. 2) and certainly before developing indicators and the means of verification. Early analysis of assumptions helps to guide programme design and helps us avoid becoming locked into activities and indicators that may take us off course. Tip: It is important to identify and determine how to test or flesh out assumptions before beginning to work on indicators and other parts of the monitoring and evaluation plan (see M&E Plan module). It is important to identify risks early in the design process. Some risks may be so unacceptable that they lead to a no go decision or require adding or changing the activities or approach. Manageable risks can be mitigated by planning to address them. Project designs should include mitigating plans for risks likely to occur. It is important to monitor the ongoing context within which the project is implemented (political, economic, natural events, etc.) for any changes which may require mitigation plans to be implemented. Assumptions and assessments relating to the baseline (see Baseline Assessment module), conflict (see Conflict Assessment module) and risks (see Risk Assessment module), should inform the design phase. For more on risks, see the How To Do Them section. Tip: Tip: Not all risks and assumptions can be addressed in the design stage, but they should be written into a log frame for tracking and early warning purposes. Who should be involved? Keep in mind that the following varies by project, context, and personnel: Page 5 of 12

6 Project manager, DME Coordinator and staff and relevant stakeholders should all agree on the objectives for the project. The DME Specialist in the DC office can be used as a resource or facilitator for the initial discussions and review of chosen objectives. How to do them? When we begin to look at assumptions we quickly become swamped. Which assumptions, and their associated risks, matter the most? The Determining Assumptions and Risks flow chart below can help in determining which assumptions and risks to include in the design. Generally speaking we need to consider those assumptions and risks that could possibly prevent or block a connection between one level in the design and another level in the design. A good starting point is to identify key assumptions with a certain level of the design hierarchy, for example, one of your activities. TOOL 1: Determining Assumptions and Risk Flowchart Page 6 of 12

7 How likely is it that the risk will prevent the program from advancing to the next level in the design framework? Very likely Possible Unlikely Include in the Log frame Do not include In the Log frame Is it possible to redesign the program in a way that reduces the likelihood Of the Assumption? yes Redesign the program no Program is not Technically viable Assessing Assumptions TOOL 2: Diagonal Logic Page 7 of 12

8 Once you have identified the key assumptions and risks associated with each level in the design hierarchy, use diagonal logic between columns 1 and 4 in the logframe, beginning with activities and progressing upwards, to ensure logical progression of the hierarchy Page 8 of 12

9 Then the justice sector will have increased capacity and men, women and children Then the public will have changed perceptions and attitudes towards and knowledge of the Timorese Then we will produce and distribute X radio talk shows. If we do this... Example: Logframe Diagonal Logic Narrative Indicators Means of Verification Goal To achieve equal and timely access to justice for men, women and children by building the capacity of the justice sector in Timor-Leste Objective 1 To increase public knowledge and change public perceptions and attitudes regarding the workings of the Timorese judicial system Outputs X radio talk shows produced and distributed Activities Produce and distribute interactive radio talk shows If we produce and distribute interactive radio talk shows... Assumptions and Risks Assumption: The legal system (police and courts) will have a vested interest to ensure timely and equal access. Risk: Corruption impedes progress. Assumption: Marginalised and vulnerable groups experience a greater sense of ownership of and belonging to a just Timorese society Assumption: Radio retains its overall function and dominance in Timorese media and the talk shows directly relate to marginalised/vulnerable groups experiences Assumption/risk: Availability of necessary technology. And necessary technology is available... And marginalised and vulnerable groups experience a greater sense of ownership of, and belonging to a just Timorese And radio retains its overall function and dominance in Timorese media, and the talk shows directly relate to

10 Narrative Indicators Assumptions and Risks % of Timorese citizens in targeted communities demonstrate knowledge of judicial issues and the use of non-adversarial approaches and cooperative Risk: Corruption impedes progress. solutions Goal To achieve equal and timely access to justice for men, women and children by building the capacity of the justice sector in Timor-Leste Assumption: The legal system (police and courts) will have a vested interest to ensure timely and equal access. Objective 1 To increase public knowledge and change public perceptions and attitudes regarding the workings of the Timorese judicial system Outputs X radio talk shows produced and distributed Activities Produce and distribute interactive radio talk shows Percentage of interviewed citizens who report listening to the radio drama; percentage of interviewed citizens who can name three messages from the radio drama and explain why they are key Number of radio drama episodes produced and distributed Number of shows produced; number of callers; % of callers addressing other callers Assumption: Marginalised and vulnerable groups experience a greater sense of ownership of and belonging to a just Timorese society Assumption: Radio retains its overall function and dominance in Timorese media and the talk shows directly relate to marginalised/vulnerable groups experiences Assumption/risk: Availability of necessary technology. Page 10 of 12

11 TOOL 3: Checklist for Assumptions and Risk 1. Have all the assumptions and risks been identified? a. Stakeholder analysis? b. Problem trees, etc? 2. Are the risks specific? Or too general? 3. Are the risks/assumptions at the right level? 4. Does the logic work? a. Diagonal logic between Columns 1 and 4 If Then And b. Necessary and sufficient? 5. Where risks are manageable, have they been managed? a. Where possible, have they been turned into Activities and Outputs, i.e., moved into Column 1? 6. What are the pre-conditions? 7. Should the activity proceed in view of the remaining assumptions and risks? Risk Management Strategic risk management is a central part of any organisation or project. Its focus is the assessment of significant risks and the implementation of suitable responses in a continuous process; it increases the probability of success and reduces both the probability of failure and the level of uncertainty associated with achieving the objectives of the organisation [or project]. 3 For further information on risk assessment and management strategies, see Risk Assessment module. 3 The Association of Insurance and Risk Managers, The Public Risk Management Association, and The Institute of Risk Management, A Structured Approach to Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and the requirements of ISO 31000, 2010, accessed 1 December 2010,

12 Additional Resources The following resources are particularly good for the identification of Assumptions and Risks. An overall guide to resources for project design from the SFCG library is available here. Anne J. Atkinson and Carolyne Ashton, Planning for Results: The Safe and Drug-Free Schools and Community Program Planning and Evaluation Handbook (Richmond: Virginia Department of Education, 2002), accessed 24 September 2010, The Association of Insurance and Risk Managers, The Public Risk Management Association, and The Institute of Risk Management, A Structured Approach to Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and the requirements of ISO 31000, 2010, accessed 1 December 2010, Cheyanne Church and Mark M. Rogers, Designing for Results: Integrating Monitoring and Evaluation in Conflict Transformation Programs Part 1 (Washington DC: Search for Common Ground, 2006), accessed 24 September 2010, Department for International Development, Log Frame Guidelines (London: DFID, 2005) accessed 24 September 2010, James A. Dewar, Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), accessed 30 September 2010, umption%20based%20planning.pdf. Page 12 of 12