REGIONAL ECONOMIC UPDATE Fourth Quarter 2012

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1 REGIONAL ECONOMIC UPDATE Fourth Quarter 2012 January 2013 Regional Economy Remains Strong and Inflation is Under Control In the midst of continuing global economic slowdown, the state of economy in most of the Indonesian regions remains strong and regional inflation is also under control. The economic growth in most of the Indonesian regions in 2012 was still supported by strong domestic demand and main regional sectors growth. Specifically in the fourth quarter of 2012, a majority of the Indonesian regions were expected to have stable growth, supported by the main sectors of its respected economy. The industrial sector in Java and Jakarta region, along with agricultural and mining sectors in Sumatera and Eastern Region are still the primary drivers of the economy. Bank intermediation also gives contribution to the economic growth. However, the acceleration of the economic growth could be limited because of exports performance that is still weak in the fourth quarter due to lower demand and a sluggish global economic recovery. Recent development indicates that some regions that are dependent on natural resource commodities experience lower economic growth as global commodity prices declined significantly following lower demand. Graph 1: Regional Development, 2012 Estimation Range of gpdrb (%, yoy) *) Forecasts are conducted by the Regional Office of Bank Indonesia For 2012, the aggregate growth was still supported by the economy of Java and Jakarta region that hold a larger share of the country s economy. Java and Jakarta regions experienced a relatively stable growth, while growth in the Sumatera and Eastern Region slowed down. The slowdown of Sumatera region s economy resulted in a smaller growth contribution to the country s economy. Meanwhile, the economy of the Eastern Region increased, driven by stronger domestic demand. In the last ten years, the economic equality between regions has slightly improved as the economic share of the Eastern Region s economy increased. Inflation in many regions in 2012 was sustained at a relatively low level and played a role in achieving the country s inflation target range of 4.5%±1%. The country s inflation for 2012 is 4.3% (yoy), which is within the range of the country s inflation target. A manageable level of regional inflation was a key factor that helped maintain a relatively low level of country inflation. Sumatera region in particular recorded a lower inflation in 2012 compared to its historical levels, and also in comparison with inflation in other regions. A moderate regional inflation was also due to manageable demand, inflation expectations and exchange rate. In addition, moderate inflation was also supported by the availability of supply as production increased along with the improvement in logistics and distribution of food commodities. Furthermore, there were no strategic policies regarding administered prices which also contributed to moderate inflation in Policy R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c U p d a t e

2 coordination between Local Government, Central Government and Bank Indonesia through Regional Inflation Controling Team also plays an important role in sustaining a low level of inflation in Currently, there are a total of 87 Regional Inflation Controlling Team across the country. Graph 2: Mapping of Volatile Food Inflation and Regional Inflation Controlling Team, 2012 Average VF inflation declining on 2012 vs Average on Inflation Cities - TPID not yet established Inflation Cities - TPID established Non Inflation Cities - TPID established The prospect of regional growth is foreseen as more promising in 2013 due to the global economic recovery and sustainability of domestic demand. The aggregate forecast for regional growth in 2013 is between 6.3% and 6.8% (yoy), supported particularly by upward growth in the Eastern Region as export of commodities increases. Hence, there are significant challenges from both external and domestic that can potentially affect the growth of Indonesian regions in From an external view, the prospect of a global economic recovery is still fragile and overshadowed by uncertainty. The slow recovery of the global economy would continue to put pressure on regional exports, in response to a dwingdling demand for manufacturing products and natural resource commodities. Another issue that potentially affects regional growth in 2013 is the increase of electricity tariff and minimum wage that will commence at the beginning of the year. A sequential increase of electricity tariff and a significant rise in the minimum wage will not only make the cost of business higher, but will also potentially create uncertainty due to a labor dispute. Yet, on the other side, an increase in the minimum wage can also give assurance to workers about their welfare. In order to maintain the growth momentum in 2013, it is necessary to introduce policies that will enhance regional competitiveness and accelerate investment. Furthermore, it is also critical to expand the domestic market and diversified export destinations along with the development of industries that promote product innovation. Regional inflation in 2013 is expected to be sustained within the range of the country inflation target of 4.5%±1% (yoy). The sustainability of inflation in 2013 is supported by an increase in food supplies and a manageable demand based on the capacity of the regional economy. A couple of issues that should be of concern are the impact of the rising minimum wage to general price increases along with an upward trend in energy prices. In addition, a number of policies by central and local governments that will affect the cost of goods and services (administered prices) are planned in For the Eastern region specifically, the upward trend of inflation started at the end of 2012 should be the focus of the coordinated efforts to control regional inflation. To cope with that condition, the Regional Inflation Controling Team will strengthen its efforts and role in coordinating policies that can maintain price stability. R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c U p d a t e 2

3 A. Current Regional Economic Moderate regional growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 is expected to continue despite the global economic slowdown. The economy of Java and Jakarta region that share similar sectors is predicted to grow stable around 6.6% and 6.4% respectively in the fourth quarter. Performance the industrial sector is expected to improve and contribute to the growth sustainability in these two regions. Strong domestic demand is the main driver for growth in most of the regions particularly in Java and Jakarta. Household spending for goods and services supports the production of manufacturing and non tradable sectors. The sign of improvement in the manufacturing sector is based on the import growth of raw materials and an upward trend of industrial production index. Sustained domestic demand is indicated from the trade index and growth of consumption credits. Hence, a slow recovery in the global economy will continue to put pressure on demand and affects export of manufacturing products from Java and Jakarta regions. A decline in manufacturing export from Java and Jakarta regions is expected for textile and chemical products. This condition will result in a trade deficit or net import for Java and Jakarta regions in The cumulative net import is expected to be higher in 2012 compared to the last three years. Graph 3. Volume of Exports Manufacturing in the Java and Jakarta Regions Graph 4. Volume of Raw Material Imports in the Java and Jakarta Regions %,yoy Sumatera and Eastern Region Jawa and Jakarta (20.0) (40.0) Graph 5. Cumulative Value of Exports and Imports (Januari-November) in the Java and Jakarta Regions Graph 6. Manufacturing Production Index (20) (40) (60) (80) (100) (120) (140) billion USD (54) (79) (101) (112) Import Export Net-Export %,yoy %,yoy Automotive(rhs) Textile Confection Footwear and Leather Good Source: CEIC Growth in the Eastern Region in the fourth quarter of 2012 is expected to be around 5.4% (yoy), which is slightly higher from the previous quarter (5.2%, yoy). Meanwhile, the economy in the Sumatera region for the same period is predicted to slow down to around 5.7% (yoy) compared to the previous quarter (5,9%,yoy). Growth in these two regions is driven by the agricultural sector particularly palm oil, rubber and also food agriculture. During the harvest period in the fourth quarter of 2012, there was an increase of production of palm oil due to the revitalization project of palm oil and also a relatively condusive weather. Besides that, there R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c U p d a t e 3

4 was a significant increase production of food agriculture in a number of production centers in Sumatera and Eastern Region as indicated in the forecast number from the Bureau of Central Statistics. On the other side, the export performance of crude palm oil (CPO) has not shown a significant improvement because of the drop of the CPO prices in the global market. An increase in the production of palm oil and CPO was mostly driven by the domestic market. A higher economic performance in the Sumatera and Eastern Region has been hindered by the downward of the mining sector. The decline in the mining sector was particularly affected by the region of Riau, West Nusa Tenggara and East Kalimantan where growth in the mining sector was contracted heavily. In addition to the external factor that was influenced by the global demand for mining products, there were also a number of technical issues related to the operations on the field, such as field expansion project or incident that affected the mining production. Fortunately, owing to the strength of domestic demand, the economy in the Eastern Region is predicted to grow higher than in the previous quater. It is expected also that the mining activity particularly in Papua will be back to normal after a number of production disruptions in On the other hand, the economic performance of Sumatera region is expected to grow slower because of the decline in export commodities, which among others are coal and nickel. Grafik 5. Volume Exports of Natural Resources in the Sumatera dan Eastern Region Graph 8. Coal Production million ton %,yoy Production 6 gproduction (rhs) f Source: BMI The strength of the regional economy is also supported by the credit growth in most of the regions. Growth of credit until the beginning of fourth quarter 2012 in the Java and Jakarta regions was 24.7% and 21.2% (yoy) respectively, which was driven by credits for working capital and consumption. Credit disbursement in the Java and Jakarta regions was particularly higher in industrial and trade sectors, which is the main sector of the economy in these two regions. In the Sumatera and Eastern Region, credit growth is recorded at 25.2% (yoy) dan 23.3% (yoy) respectively. The credit growth in the Eastern Region was mainly driven by consumer credit and credit towards trade and industrial sectors. Meanwhile in the Sumatera region, credit for working capital was on the rise and specifically was in trade and agricultural sectors. R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c U p d a t e 4

5 Graph 9. Regional Inflation Graph 10. Disagregation of Regional Inflation % yoy 9.00 National Sumatera Jakarta Jawa Eastern Region (1.00) Eastern Region Inflation in most regions in 2012 was manageable and recorded at a relatively moderate level, which contributed to meet the country s inflation target. Sumatera region in particular recorded a lower inflation in 2012 compared to its historical and inflation in other regions. A moderate regional inflation was also due to a manageable demand, inflation expectation and exchange rate Furthermore, the fact that there were no strategic policies regarding administered prices also contributed to a moderate inflation rate in Policy coordination between regional government, central government and Bank Indonesia through Inflation Controling Team also plays an important role in sustaining a low level of inflation in B. Prospect of Regional Economic In general, the prospect of the regional economy is promising in 2013 compared to 2012 with an indication of global economic recovery. The economic of Java and Jakarta region will be supported by a strong domestic demand and improvement in the manufacturing export. A higher volume of raw material imports suggests optimism of businesses towards the domestic market. While an upward trend in export of manufacturing and also natural resource commodities is inline with the forecast of increasing global demand in Yet, the positive prospect on export manufacturing is to be determined by the certainty of the global economic recovery. Other risk factors that also overshadowed the economic prospect of the Java and Jakarta regions are the increase of electricity tariff and minimum wage. Those two factors will have an impact on industries in the Java and Jakarta regions. The economy in the Eastern Region and Sumatera region is predicted to strengthen in the second semester of 2013, supported by improvement in export of natural resources. Although there is an early indication of global economic recovery, there is still a high uncertainty related to global economy in 2013 that may affect demand for energy and natural resources. Hence, with the potential of a higher global export, the mining and agricultural sectors believe that performance will be improved in the first semester of The mining production is also projected to increase because of the field expansions (cooper) that were started in The implementation of MP3EI also becomes a factor that will promote acceleration of development and growth in the Sumatera and Eastern Region. Regional inflation is projected to be under control and managed to support the country inflation target of 4,5%±1% (yoy). A number of factors that should be considered as a determinant of sustained inflation are the weak global commodity prices, managed inflation expectation and higher production of foods agricultural. The Department of Agriculture has predicted an increase of approximately 4,5% in rice crop production in Hence, there are other risk factors related to price of energy and prices of goods and services administered by the government (cigarette tax, toll road fee) that potentially have an impact on inflation. Furthermore, acceleration of food prices in the Eastern Region that started in the second semester of 2012 and potential disruption on logistic and distribution of food supply including from the weather, should be monitored. To R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c U p d a t e 5

6 respond to all of those risk factors of inflation, there is a need for coordinated policies that focus on managing inflation expectation and improving the national logistical system. Other important inflation risk factor in 2013 is a significant increase in the minimum wage. According to the survey conducted by Bank Indonesia, the impact of a rising minimum wage on selling prices of goods is particularly high in the transport and machinery industry, foods and beverages industry, textile and shoes industry. Yet, the survey also confirms that a number of corporations will revise their business strategy and pursue cost efficiency to minimize the impact of rising minimum wage. Another aspect that should be considered in relation to minimum wage in 2013 is the disparity of minimum wage between regions. A higher gap on minimum wage will force migration and change in the labor market where the labor in the primary sector moves to the tertiary sector that has a higher wage. C. Special Issue: Fiscal Decentralization and Resiliency of Regional Economy In the last 10-year of the implementation of decentralization in Indonesia, transfer to local government showed a significant increase. Transfer to local government, specifically through DAU (Special Allocation Fund) plays a role in the allocation of local spending. Yet, during the same period, an increase in DAU is mostly allocated for civil service expenditure. In 2011, the average allocation for civil service expenditure reached 44% of the total spending in APBD (Local Revenue and Expenditure Budget). In a number of regions, the average allocation of civil service even reached a higher ratio (close to 60%). While the ratio of civil service expenditure increased in all regions, the ratio of capital expenditure to Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) is relatively lower or did not indicate a significant improvement. The ratio of DAU and civil service expenditure has a positive correlation with income percapita, although the coefficient of the correlation is small. The pattern of DAU allocation shows a concentration in a region that has a larger share of civil service expenditure, yet, there is no indication of a significant increase on income per capita. Table 1. Share of Local Government Expenditure to Gross Regional Domestic Product Region/Zone Regional Gov. Expenditure Good and Service Expenditure Personnel Expenditure Part of RGDP,% Capital Expenditure Sumatera Northern Central Southern DKI Jakarta Jawa Western Central Eastern KTI Balnustra Kalimantan Sulampua Source: Ministry of Finance and Bureau of Central Statistics (calculated) The quarterly regional economic update is a summary of Board of Governor s meeting with 9 Regional Head of Bank Indonesia on January 4, 2013 in Jakarta. The quarterly Board s meeting is to assess regional growth and inflation along with various strategic regional issues as part of consideration in determining the direction of monetary policy of Bank Indonesia R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c U p d a t e 6

7 Appendix. Indicators of Regional Economy Kawasan/Wilayah Tw I Tw II Tw III Tw IV Total Tw I Tw II Tw III * Tw IV f Total Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%,yoy) 1 SUMATERA 3,5 5,6 5,9 6,1 6,0 6,0 6,0 5,9 5,8 5,9 5,7 5,8 Sumatera Bag. Utara 2,5 5,5 6,2 6,5 6,4 6,0 6,3 6,1 6,1 5,9 6,0 6,0 Sumatera Bag. Tengah 3,6 5,4 5,6 5,5 5,5 5,5 5,4 5,5 5,3 5,8 5,4 5,6 Sumatera Bag. Selatan 4,4 5,8 6,1 6,8 6,3 7,0 6,5 6,3 6,1 6,0 5,8 6,1 JAKARTA 5,0 6,5 6,7 6,7 6,7 6,7 6,7 6,4 6,7 6,4 6,4 6,5 JAWA 4,7 6,2 7,1 6,6 6,6 6,7 6,6 6,6 6,7 6,6 6,5 6,6 Jawa Bag. Barat 4,3 6,1 7,5 6,2 6,4 6,3 6,5 6,3 6,4 6,2 6,1 6,3 Jawa Bag. Tengah 5,1 5,7 6,3 6,1 6,1 6,6 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,2 6,3 6,3 Jawa Bag. Timur 5,0 6,7 7,2 7,3 7,1 7,1 7,2 7,2 7,2 7,2 7,2 7,1 KTI 8,0 6,2 5,7 5,8 5,6 4,7 5,5 7,1 7,0 5,2 5,4 6,0 Balnustra 6,3 5,8 3,3 3,0 3,6 2,9 3,2 3,3 5,2 3,3 4,8 4,1 Kalimantan 3,4 5,4 4,2 4,5 5,1 5,8 4,9 6,1 5,6 4,2 3,7 4,9 Sulampua 8,9 7,3 8,8 8,8 7,2 4,2 7,1 9,9 9,6 7,4 7,8 8,1 * Figures are not final f Forecasts are conducted by the Regional Office of Bank Indonesia Source: Bureau of Central Statistics (calculated) R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c U p d a t e

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