Long Run vs. Short Run
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1 Long Run vs. Short Run
2 Long Run vs. Short Run Growth is about the long run.
3 Long Run vs. Short Run Growth is about the long run. Now we return to the short run and the study of business cycles.
4 Long Run vs. Short Run Growth is about the long run. Now we return to the short run and the study of business cycles. The central framework for studying business cycles is the aggregate demand-aggregate supply (or AD-AS) model.
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6 Growth vs. Business Cycles
7 Growth vs. Business Cycles Growth is mainly about how the natural rate of output (sometimes called potential output) changes through increases in an economy s productive capacity.
8 Growth vs. Business Cycles Growth is mainly about how the natural rate of output (sometimes called potential output) changes through increases in an economy s productive capacity. In the long run, shifts in the aggregate demand (AD) curve change the price level but not output: the long-run aggregate supply (AS) curve is vertical.
9 Growth vs. Business Cycles Growth is mainly about how the natural rate of output (sometimes called potential output) changes through increases in an economy s productive capacity. In the long run, shifts in the aggregate demand (AD) curve change the price level but not output: the long-run aggregate supply (AS) curve is vertical. In the short run, shifts in the AD curve move both the price level and output (and in the same direction): the short-run AS curve is upward-sloping (but not vertical).
10 Growth vs. Business Cycles Growth is mainly about how the natural rate of output (sometimes called potential output) changes through increases in an economy s productive capacity. In the long run, shifts in the aggregate demand (AD) curve change the price level but not output: the long-run aggregate supply (AS) curve is vertical. In the short run, shifts in the AD curve move both the price level and output (and in the same direction): the short-run AS curve is upward-sloping (but not vertical). These short-run movements in output are driven mainly by short-run movements in employment (and especially short-run movements in the unemployment rate).
11 Growth vs. Business Cycles Growth is mainly about how the natural rate of output (sometimes called potential output) changes through increases in an economy s productive capacity. In the long run, shifts in the aggregate demand (AD) curve change the price level but not output: the long-run aggregate supply (AS) curve is vertical. In the short run, shifts in the AD curve move both the price level and output (and in the same direction): the short-run AS curve is upward-sloping (but not vertical). These short-run movements in output are driven mainly by short-run movements in employment (and especially short-run movements in the unemployment rate). Let s look at the data on unemployment....
12 Table 3.4 Employment Status of the U.S. Adult Population, February 2003 Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-23
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14 Figure 3.15 Changes in employment status in a typical month Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-24
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16 Figure 1.3 The U.S. unemployment rate, Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-4
17 Figure 1.1 Output of the U.S. economy, Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-2
18 Figure 8.1 A business cycle Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-2
19 Table 8.1 NBER Business Cycle Turning Points and Durations of Post 1854 Business Cycles 8-3
20 Figure 8.6 Cyclical behavior of civilian employment Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-9
21 Figure 8.7 Cyclical behavior of the unemployment rate Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-10
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26 Figure 3.16 Okun s law in the United States: Copyright 2005 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-25
27 Sources of Unemployment
28 Sources of Unemployment There are two sources of unemployment: frictional unemployment and structural unemployment.
29 Sources of Unemployment There are two sources of unemployment: frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment arises through the normal and efficient functioning of a market economy.
30 Sources of Unemployment There are two sources of unemployment: frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment arises through the normal and efficient functioning of a market economy. Workers and firms need to find each other:
31 Sources of Unemployment There are two sources of unemployment: frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment arises through the normal and efficient functioning of a market economy. Workers and firms need to find each other: this search and matching process takes time.
32 Sources of Unemployment There are two sources of unemployment: frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment arises through the normal and efficient functioning of a market economy. Workers and firms need to find each other: this search and matching process takes time. There is a lot of churning in the labor market:
33 Sources of Unemployment There are two sources of unemployment: frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment arises through the normal and efficient functioning of a market economy. Workers and firms need to find each other: this search and matching process takes time. There is a lot of churning in the labor market: every month thousands of jobs are created and destroyed.
34 Sources of Unemployment There are two sources of unemployment: frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment arises through the normal and efficient functioning of a market economy. Workers and firms need to find each other: this search and matching process takes time. There is a lot of churning in the labor market: every month thousands of jobs are created and destroyed. In addition, in every month thousands of workers enter the labor force for the first time
35 Sources of Unemployment There are two sources of unemployment: frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment arises through the normal and efficient functioning of a market economy. Workers and firms need to find each other: this search and matching process takes time. There is a lot of churning in the labor market: every month thousands of jobs are created and destroyed. In addition, in every month thousands of workers enter the labor force for the first time and leave it for the last time (retirement).
36 Sources of Unemployment There are two sources of unemployment: frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment arises through the normal and efficient functioning of a market economy. Workers and firms need to find each other: this search and matching process takes time. There is a lot of churning in the labor market: every month thousands of jobs are created and destroyed. In addition, in every month thousands of workers enter the labor force for the first time and leave it for the last time (retirement). Lesson: Search and matching is a costly, time-consuming process, leading to frictional unemployment even in a well-functioning, healthy economy.
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39 Structural Unemployment
40 Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when wages do not adjust to clearthelabormarket.
41 Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when wages do not adjust to clearthelabormarket. Why might this happen?
42 Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when wages do not adjust to clearthelabormarket. Why might this happen? Four possibilities:
43 Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when wages do not adjust to clearthelabormarket. Why might this happen? Four possibilities: 1. Minimum wage laws (the living wage)
44 Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when wages do not adjust to clearthelabormarket. Why might this happen? Four possibilities: 1. Minimum wage laws (the living wage) 2. Unions
45 Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when wages do not adjust to clearthelabormarket. Why might this happen? Four possibilities: 1. Minimum wage laws (the living wage) 2. Unions 3. Efficiency wages
46 Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when wages do not adjust to clearthelabormarket. Why might this happen? Four possibilities: 1. Minimum wage laws (the living wage) 2. Unions 3. Efficiency wages 4. Morale
47 Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when wages do not adjust to clearthelabormarket. Why might this happen? Four possibilities: 1. Minimum wage laws (the living wage) 2. Unions 3. Efficiency wages 4. Morale Minimum wage laws restrict the market wage from dropping below a specified minimum wage.
48 Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment arises when wages do not adjust to clearthelabormarket. Why might this happen? Four possibilities: 1. Minimum wage laws (the living wage) 2. Unions 3. Efficiency wages 4. Morale Minimum wage laws restrict the market wage from dropping below a specified minimum wage. This minimum wage could be above the wage that clears the labor market (i.e., the wage that eliminates excess supply in the labor market).
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50 Unions
51 Unions Unions are collections of workers.
52 Unions Unions are collections of workers. On behalf of their members, unions negotiate with employers over wages, benefits, and working conditions (sometimes called collective bargaining).
53 Unions Unions are collections of workers. On behalf of their members, unions negotiate with employers over wages, benefits, and working conditions (sometimes called collective bargaining). Workers in unions tend to earn higher wages than workers not in unions.
54 Unions Unions are collections of workers. On behalf of their members, unions negotiate with employers over wages, benefits, and working conditions (sometimes called collective bargaining). Workers in unions tend to earn higher wages than workers not in unions. If the union wage is above the market-clearing wage, then there is an excess supply of labor (or unemployment), just as therewouldbeunderaminimumwagelaw.
55 Efficiency Wages
56 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so.
57 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so. Why?
58 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so. Why? Efficiency wages:
59 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so. Why? Efficiency wages: 1. Reduce worker turnover, thereby reducing the cost of hiring and training workers.
60 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so. Why? Efficiency wages: 1. Reduce worker turnover, thereby reducing the cost of hiring and training workers. 2. Increase worker quality by attracting a better pool of job applicants.
61 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so. Why? Efficiency wages: 1. Reduce worker turnover, thereby reducing the cost of hiring and training workers. 2. Increase worker quality by attracting a better pool of job applicants. If the firm lowered its wage, the best workers would seek good-paying jobs elsewhere.
62 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so. Why? Efficiency wages: 1. Reduce worker turnover, thereby reducing the cost of hiring and training workers. 2. Increase worker quality by attracting a better pool of job applicants. If the firm lowered its wage, the best workers would seek good-paying jobs elsewhere. 3. Increase worker effort.
63 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so. Why? Efficiency wages: 1. Reduce worker turnover, thereby reducing the cost of hiring and training workers. 2. Increase worker quality by attracting a better pool of job applicants. If the firm lowered its wage, the best workers would seek good-paying jobs elsewhere. 3. Increase worker effort. Workers who are receiving better-than-market wages will exert more effort to keep from being fired.
64 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so. Why? Efficiency wages: 1. Reduce worker turnover, thereby reducing the cost of hiring and training workers. 2. Increase worker quality by attracting a better pool of job applicants. If the firm lowered its wage, the best workers would seek good-paying jobs elsewhere. 3. Increase worker effort. Workers who are receiving better-than-market wages will exert more effort to keep from being fired. 4. Increase morale (Truman Bewley).
65 Efficiency Wages Firms might pay a wage higher than the market-clearing wage because firms can operate more efficiently if they do so. Why? Efficiency wages: 1. Reduce worker turnover, thereby reducing the cost of hiring and training workers. 2. Increase worker quality by attracting a better pool of job applicants. If the firm lowered its wage, the best workers would seek good-paying jobs elsewhere. 3. Increase worker effort. Workers who are receiving better-than-market wages will exert more effort to keep from being fired. 4. Increase morale (Truman Bewley). Firms would rather fire employees than cut wages for all employees because wage cuts reduce morale (thereby lowering worker effort).
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