1 Office market report Pulse Spring 2014 The Belgian Logistics Market - Quarterly Update Brussels On Point 1st quarter 2014 The return of Belgian administrations Take-up in Q was 101,612 sq.m., in line with a year ago, driven by local administrations. Vacancy slightly increased compared to Q to 10.3% because of a further deterioration in the Periphery, partly mitigated by stabilisation in the CBD. Investment volume in Belgium came in at 284 Mio, 37% of which offices, unchanged year-on-year. Prime office yields are under downward pressure for core products in CBD locations, ranging between 5.8% and 6.25%. Prime rents were unchanged at 285 / sq.m. / year however top quartile rents declined again by 3% year-on-year and weighted average rents declined by 5%.
2 - 2 - On Point Brussels Office Market Q Foreword 2014 might see the come back of administrations in Brussels, after a few year of complete absence. A major transaction with Actiris on the Astro Tower (32,000 sq.m.) is ongoing, and a few others - amongst them the Flemish Community (60,000 sq.m.) to be confirmed by the responsible minister - might follow. This come back will counterbalance the less active corporate sector, still driven by cost savings and renegotiations. Meanwhile the appetite for residential redevelopment remains. Erik Verbruggen - Head of Office Agency Belgium Key statistics Q Q Take-up (cumulative) (000 sq. m.) Take-up (cumulative) (No of Deals) Stock (Mio sq. m.) Completions (cumulative) (000 sq. m.) Vacancy (000 sq. m.) 1,458 1,360 1,351 1,351 Vacancy Rate (%) Prime Rent ( /sq. m./pa) Top Quartile Rent ( /sq. m./pa) Weighted Average Rent ( /sq. m./pa) Total Investment Volume in BE (cumulative) (bn ) (*) Offices Investment Volume in BE (cumulative) (bn ) (*) Prime Yield Band (%) (**) 2015 (**) 2016 (**) Future Supply, Speculative (000 sq. m.) Future Supply, Non Speculative (000 sq. m.) Total
3 - 3 - On Point Brussels Office Market Q Letting Market Remarkable return of administrations after two years of quasi absence The still sluggish economic climate early 2014 did not support a material change in office demand, the year therefore started on a quiet note, with take-up of 101,612 sq.m., up 1% year-on-year. Local administrations are back in the occupiers market, finally! The main event was the strong return of the Local administrations in the market after two years of quasi absence, with a proportion of 43% of total take-up. The most representative deal was the preletting to Actiris (Brussels Employment administration) of the Astro Tower, a 32,000 sq.m. refurbishment passive building project at the crossing of the North and Leopold district. Actiris signed for 25 years and will group its services together with VDAB Brussels (the Flemish Employment administration) in one single building. It is also the largest transaction by a local administration since Q and the preletting to the Federal Police of the Belair. Also noticeable, the acquisition by citydev of 5,350 sq.m in the Trio building (Louise district). After fit-out works, several regional agencies linked to commerce and entrepreneurship in Brussels (Impulse/ ABE/BAO, Atrium, Innoviris and Research in Brussels) will be grouped there. In the Decentralised (Rue de Stalle) the police of the zone Uccle/Forest/Auderghem/Watermael took 2,658 sq.m. Corporates remain the largest contributors to occupiers activity with 57,305 sq.m., ie 56% of the take-up. Representative transactions include the letting to B-Bridge of 7,210 sq.m. in the Atlantis building (Decentralised) and the preletting of 3,900 sq.m. in the Guimard 10 (Leopold district) by the Bank Degroof. Compared to Q1 2013, letting volume by corporates increased by 56% and compared to the five year average for the first quarter, it is 5% above. There were 96 transactions by corporate occupiers in Q1 2014, vs. 69 a year ago and vs. a five year average of 80. These figures suggest a modest recovery of corporate demand after 5 years of crisis: to be confirmed in the next quarters! At this stage, there was no transaction by European institutions. The CBD contributed to 59% of the take-up in Q vs. 78% a year ago. Last year the take-up in the CBD was dominated by two transactions from European institutions. The North contributed to 33.4%, the Louise district to 12%, the Leopold district to 9.6% and the Pentagon to 4.1%. Outside the CBD, the Decentralised contributed to 18.5% and the Periphery contributed to 22.4%. 50% of the take-up in the Periphery was realised in the South East, with among others the acquisition by the Communauté Française of a 3,500 sq.m. building in Louvain-La-Neuve that will be converted into a school. TAKE-UP BY BUSINESS SECTOR (SQM) Local administrations are absent TAKE-UP BY QUARTER (SQM) Weakest Q4 of the decade 100% 80% % % 20% 0% Q Belgian Adm EU International Adm Corporates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 5-yr average 10 yr average
4 - 4 - On Point Brussels Office Market Q Preference for new existing buildings or projects 27% of the deals in Q were realised in existing new buildings and 38% were prelettings. Occupiers preference for new buildings is motivated by lower energy consumption, more efficient workspace, good corporate image for staff and clients and also a pleasant place to work. Local administrations tend to focus their demand on green, if possible passive, building projects. The European Commission also focus on new buildings, though at this stage there is no transaction for a building corresponding to the highest green standards. This is explained by the fact that the European Commission can only sign leasing contracts on existing buildings and not on projects, bearing in mind that the construction of green buildings is a very recent trend. The European Parliament however acquired a BREEAM Excellent building project in 2012, the Trebel. Vacancy stabilises in the CBD, but increases again in the Periphery VACANCY RATE CBD & OUTSIDE CBD Vacancy rate outside CBD not far from peak 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Total BXL Market CBD Outside CBD COMPLETION AND PIPELINE More speculative completions in the CBD in 2014 and There was no speculative completion in Q1 2014, only 17,000 sq.m. were completed, but all was prelet (Brussels Environment: 14,000 sq.m. in the North district and the Princes Center in the Pentagon). Deducting additional conversions accounted during the quarter, the office stock in Brussels declined by 24,000 sq.m. quarter-on-quarter to 13,322,566 sq.m. The slight recovery of demand implied limited change in vacancy: as of the end of March 2014, there was 10.3% vacant (1,370,000 sq.m.) vacant in Brussels, vs. 10.1% 3 months ago. This deterioration is attributed to the situation in the Periphery: in the CBD the vacancy rate was unchanged at 5.9% (Pentagon: 4.3%, South: 3.9%, North: 7.4%, Leopold: 5.2%, Louise: 12.6%), outside the CBD it increased by 40 bps to 18%, despite a 20 bps reduction in the Decentralised to 14.8%. In the Periphery, the vacancy rate increased by 120 bps and came in at 21.8%, very close to the all-time high of 21.9% reached in Q Q e Completions Future Compl. Spec. Future Compl. Non Spec.
5 - 5 - On Point Brussels Office Market Q Reconversions: strong start Q illustrated that the conversion trend is not slowing down at this stage: this year to date, surface removed from the office stock amounted to 72,000 sq. m. JLL recently signed the sale to a private investor of the Leopold III building, a 18,000 sq.m. property at the Rue de Genève (Decentralised) currently partly let with lease terms close to maturity. The new owner may convert it into residential. Again in the Decentralised JLL sold to private investors the Place Communale d Auderghem, 13,000 sq.m. that will be reconverted into a school for a portion. At the edge of the Leopold district, AG Real Estate might transform its Atrium property (9,000 sq.m. vacant at the Place de Jamblinne de Meux) into residential. There is a known pipeline of 105,000 sq. m. of future conversions, for example the current HQ of Actiris in the Pentagon and a part of the current HQ of AXA in the Decentralised. Speculative completions in still limited In the next three quarters of ,400 sq.m. hould be speculatively delivered of which 33,900 sq.m. in the Leopold district - and 28,200 sq.m. non speculatively. In 2015, out of a total of 139,700 sq.m., only 47% of the completion is speculative. Some projects are delayed, as demand does not recover as fast as expected. Meanwhile the proportion of new buildings in the vacancy continues to decline to 14%, vs. 17% in Q Vacancy in the Leopold district is younger with 26% of new buildings. ASTRO TOWER - NORTH DISTRICT PRELET TO ACTIRIS OWNER: LURESA COMPLETION: H DISTRICT BUILDING NAME TYPE sq. m. OFFICE PLANNING PENT DE LIGNE Ref 30, PENT TREURENBERG New 7,000 H LEOP LIVINGSTONE II Ref 15,300 H LEOP BLACK PEARL New 11,000 H PENT CHAMBON - RIGOLETTO Ref 4,100 H LEOP LOI-REGENT New 7,300 H DECE MERODE Ref 12,800 H PENT BELAIR C Ref 9,000 H2 2014
6 - 6 - On Point Brussels Office Market Q Stability of prime rents, top quartile and weighted average show no sign of recovery Prime rents remained unchanged at 285/ sq.m. / year, this level being achievable in the Leopold district. In the Pentagon prime rents are 235, in the Louise district 235, in the North and the Decentralised 185 and in the Periphery 165. Substantial discounts to these prices are applicable to second hand buildings. Top quartile rents (TQR) did not materially changed in Q after the deterioration last year: for the total market they increased by 1% q-o-q to 211/ sq.m./y, however compared to a year ago it is still 3% below. In the Pentagon TQR were unchanged q-o-q at 208, in the Leopold district they were up 1% to 253, in the Louise district they were up 1% to 227, in the Decentralised they were up 7% to 172 and in the Periphery they were up 2% to 152, in the latter two explained by comparatively more deals in new buildings. Weighted average rents in Brussels declined by 2% q-o-q to 166, which is 5% below Q PRIME FACE RENT BY DISTRICT From 285 in Leopold to 165 in the Periphery Q1 14 Pent South North Leop Louise Dece Peri EVOLUTION OF FACE RENTS BRUSSELS Decline of top quartile and weighted average rent Q1 14 Prime Rent Top Quartile Rent Weighted Average Rent The Brussels office market remains tenant-favourable
7 - 7 - On Point Brussels Office Market Q Investment Market Belgium Investment volume of 284 Mio in Q started on a quiet note, in Belgium total investment volume amounted to 284 Mio, unchanged compared to Q Offices represented 37%, Industrial 27%, Retail 22%, Hotels 9% and Others (student houses, retirement homes). Offices: Mio Office investment volume came in at Mio, down 13.8% YoY. 73% of the transactions were in Brussels, the rest in Flanders. There was 7 deals, vs. 9 a year ago. 62.4% of the transactions were Investment, with for example the UpSite 36. This 6,700 sq.m. building located in the North was purchased by PMV two years ago and is rented to Go/Onderwijs (Flemish Education administration) with a 15 years lease. PMV sold it to Allianz for 27 Mio. 26.1% of the deals were redevelopment, the most representative deals being the sale to a private investor of the Leopold III building in the Decentralised for 9 Mio and the sale to a private investor of the Place Communale d Auderghem for 11 Mio. Owner occupation deals contributed to 11.5% of the transactions, with the acquisition by citydev of 5,200 sq.m. in the Trio in the Louise district for 12 Mio (estimate). Retail: 64 Mio Volumes year-to-date amounted to 64 Mio, down 49% y-o-y, at this stage there were few deals and these that occured were small. Average size of deals was only 5.8 Mio compared to 21 Mio in Q Industrial: the strongest 1st quarter in five years Industrial investment volume was 78 Mio over the last quarter, 135% more than a year ago and it was the strongest first quarter of the last five years. ProLogis acquired from Schroders the N16 Logistics in Bornem for 20 Mio, and Montea acquired from MG Real Estate the Unilever site in Forest (Brussels) as well as De Hulst in Willebroek for 16.6 Mio. Large majority of local investors Belgian investors contributed to 61.6% of the deals, followed by French (13.8%), and Germans (9.5%). 8% of the deals were realized by global funds (transnational). Private investors are the most important acquirer of the last quarter, with 31.4% of the deals (excluding owner occupation deals). Institutional investors follow with 28%, Pooled funds with 13% and REITs with 11%. TOTAL INVESTMENT VOLUME BY SECTOR - BELGIUM - Majority of Offices deals INVESTMENT VOLUME BY SOURCE BELGIUM Majority of Offices deals Pooled Funds 8% Developers 5% Propco's 13% Corporate 3% Other 2% Institution 32% Q Office Warehousing Retail Retirement Homes Other REITs 21% Private 16%
8 - 8 - On Point Brussels Office Market Q Although the investment market started quietly, there are a number of big ticket deals in the pipeline which should boost the 2014 figure to a record level compared to the previous 5 years. Core yields are also under pressure - across all sectors - due to massive cash availibility and a low interest rate and inflationary environment. Jean-Philip Vroninks Head of Capital Markets BeLux Yields under pressure in the CBD Prime office yields in Brussels with standard 6/9 year leases are under downward pressure in the CBD: the level of 5.8% in the Leopold district and 6% in the Pentagon are confirmed, and prime yields tightened by 25 bps in the Louise district to 6%. In the North district, prime yields are unchanged at 6.25%. Outside the CBD, prime yields in the Decentralised Area and the Periphery remains high, at 7.50% and 8%, reflecting the higher inherent risk. Properties located in the CBD, having a long term lease (> 9 years) and an investment grade tenant, trade around 5.25%, with downward pressure observed in recent deals. Yields for secondary assets are much higher, value-added investments deals achieving yields well above 8%, which has started attracting opportunistic investors provided that the occupancy rate of the asset is at a reasonable level. 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 PRIME OFFICE YIELDS (6/9 YEAR LEASES) Yields down in the CBD Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Pentagon North Leopold Louise Decentralised Periphery
9 - 9 - On Point Brussels Office Market Q Outlook 2014 Macroeconomic situation Oxford Economics predicts GDP growth in Belgium of 1.1% in 2014 and of 1.4% in Belgium feels the benefit of the gradual strengthening of the Eurozone recovery, however the modest pace of growth will mean only a gradual improvement in the labour market. The unemployment rate stood at 8.5% in February 2014, vs. 10.6% for the European Union (Eurostat) and is estimated to remain at the same level until the end of Public debt will remain on the high-side of the Eurozone, above 100% of GDP vs % estimated in December 2013, this restraining flexibility for the substantial tax reform announced by several parties in the anticipation of the federal and regional elections in May. The government deficit is expected to decline in 2014 to 2.7% vs. 3.1% at the end of 2013 and 4% in The net financial wealth of Belgian households was at a record high in 2013 at 864 bn, ie 226% of GDP, which is regarded by financial markets as a solid cushion against a new financial crisis if it arises. Bond yields trade at a spread of bps to German 10 y bund and funding of debt on the international market has never really been in trouble though Belgian debt is to a large extent in domestic hands. Letting market: administrations return, and Europe is searching Local administrations will remain active, as confirmed by deals signed in the first week of Q2 2014: the INASTI / RSVZ acquired the UpSite 35 (10,600 sq.m.) in the North district and Bruxelles Formation took 6,000 sq.m. in the Pentagon. The Flemish Community is expected to close a c. 60,000 sq.m transaction in the North district, though the discussions take longer than expected. The administration of Brussels City may also close a deal this year, as well as the Police of Brussels. European institutions are expected to close at least two deals in the Leopold district, both exceeding 15,000 sq.m. demand will remain flat, we estimate that the take-up for the full year will be 10 to 15% above Vacancy is expected to decline again, especially in the CBD, and to fall below 10% overall. Investment market: mega deals ahead The recovery of investment in offices last year clearly illustrated that investors have regained confidence in the Belgian office market. However, for now the majority of the medium-to-large size deals waiting for finalisation are in the core segment, often with long term leases, or to some extent core-plus, but not in value-add. Redevelopment and opportunistic deals are not expected to decline, there is a promising start that we expect to continue through the year. We are therefore confident that the investment volume in Belgium will be at least 2.5 bn and therefore match the 10 year average. Office volume should reach 1 bn, among others with the sale of KanAm Grund s Kievitplein in Antwerp for 200 Mio, and several mid-to-large size office buildings in Brussels such as the Lavallée and the IBGE/BIM HQ in the North district, and the Platinum in the Louise district. In the retail segment, several shopping centre deals are expected in the course of the year such as the sale of the Mediacité in Liège for more than 200 Mio. In view of the limited offer, investments in Logistics and semi-industrial are expected to be similar to 2013, despite very strong demand from sector specialists. Finally, banks are gradually coming back to real estate funding though Loan-to-value ratios remain below what is observed in other European market, with maximums of 50% and only in the core segments. Based on that and assuming that corporate
10 On Point Brussels Office Market Q Belgian Occupier Conditions Landlord favourable market Balanced market Tenant favourable market Vacancy rate Sentiment based view from each market outlining future expectations of prime rental direction Antwerpen / sq.m. 11.8% Mechelen Gent / sq.m. 5.25% Brussels CBD / sq.m. 5.9% / sq.m. 11.9% Leuven / sq.m. 8.5% Brussels Outside CBD /sq.m. 18% Charleroi / sq.m. n/a Namur Liège / sq.m. 3 % / sq.m. 6.5 % Key corporate real estate trends 1 Rental values are flat Differences of taxes across Regions Incentives at a peak: decrease expected for best locations 2 Choice of quality space is declining in all three Regions No real demand for green buildings due to lack of corresponding products 3 Focus on smart growth space upgrading; location analysis, new ways of working (flexibility, activity based offices)
11 On Point Brussels Office Market Q Key figures by district - Q Take-up cumulative Stock Vacancy Rate 000 sq. m. Mio sq. m. % Prime Rent Top Quartile Rent /sq. m./ year Weighted Average Rent Speculative Pipeline 2014e 2015e 000 sq. m. 000 sq. m. Pentagon South District North District Leopold District Louise District Decentralised Area Periphery Total Letting transactions Q YEAR QTR DISTRICT Operation BUILDINGNAME AGE AREA TENANT LEOP Letting MEEUS Modern 40,000 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT LEOP Preletting NEW REGENT PNP 34,000 AXA NORTH Preletting ASTRO TOWER PWP 32,000 ACTIRIS LEOP Letting LOI 15 New 17,000 EU COMMISSION LEOP Letting MARNIX II Modern 15,000 AXA DECESE Letting PLAINE 15 Modern 7,650 SODEXO PENT Letting CITY CENTER Modern 7,650 REGION DE BRUXELLES-CAPITALE DECENO Letting ATLANTIS New 7,200 B-BRIDGE DECESE Acquisition SYMPHONY Old 5,333 EUROFINS LEOP Acquisition ORION New 5,205 BRUXELLES FORMATION LOUI Acquisition TRIO New 5,200 CITYDEV LEOP Preletting BELVIEW OFFICES UC 5,000 AMBASSADE - JAPON DECENE Acquisition METROLOGIE 5 Old 4,651 CENTRE SCOLAIRE DES ETOILES PENTAGON Letting REGENCE IV New 4,100 JONES DAY LEOP Acquisition JOSEPH II, New 4,078 AMBASSADE - CROATIE PENT Letting MARQUIS BUILDING New 3,978 BPOST NORTH Letting ALBERT II - ZENITH BUILDING New 3, PERISE Letting EDISON, 12 Old 2,632 FLANDERS INVEST- MENTS & TRADE (FIT) PROVINCE BRABANT WALLON LEOP Letting MONTOYER, 51 - NEO New 2,544 MICROSOFT NORTH Letting ALBERT II - ZENITH BUILDING New 2,500 INFRAX
12 On Point Brussels Office Market Q Investment transactions Q Year Qtr District Property Price est. (EUR Mio) Seller Pentagon Belair 300 Breevast / Immobel Buyer Hannover Leasing / Asian Fund North GDF Suez Towers (60% stake) 165 AG Real Estate Belfius Insurance Louise Blue Tower Avenue Louise 79 Morgan Stanley / P2 Value Befimmo Leopold Loi Aberdeen L Intégrale Pentagon Royale AG Real Estate BNP Paribas Fortis Leopold Montoyer Aberdeen GLL Leopold City Garden Rue Joseph II 40 Commerz Real IVG Periphery Senneberg C&A 40 Redevco Financière Techeyné Leopold Nerviens KBC Deka North UpSite PMV Allianz Leopold Belview Rue Belliard 23 Allfin Iii Pentagon Botanique CS Euroreal Groupe Dijckman Decentralised Erasmus Park (Siemens) 15 Siemens Baloise Decentralised Place Communal d Auderghem 11 AG real Estate (certificate) Private Louise Louise Morgan Stanley Tribeca Decentralised Leopold III 9 Aberdeen Private Periphery Rozendaal Business Park C&D 9 Invesco Private Decentralised Chien Vert 8 AEW Europe Immobel
13 On Point Brussels Office Market Q Map of the Brussels office market
14 On Point Brussels Office Market Q Definitions TAKE-UP Take-Up New: Represents take-up of floorspace in new or substantially refurbished buildings of less than five years since completion. Take-Up Modern: Represents take-up of floorspace built or renovated between 5-15 years ago. Take-up Old: Represents take-up of floorspace built more than 15 years ago and not renovated. RENT Prime Office Rent represents the top openmarket rent that could be expected for a notional office unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a market, as at the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period). The rent quoted normally reflects prime units of over 500 sq. m. of lettable floorspace, which excludes rents that represent a premium level paid for a small quantity of space. Top Quartile Office Rent represents the average mean value of the top (25 %) quartile of all known face rents achieved on leasing transactions completed within a market during the survey period (normally calculated annually, or quarterly on a 12 monthly rolling basis). It excludes any unrepresentative deals. Weighted Average Rent represents the average mean value of all known face rents achieved on leasing transactions completed within a market during the survey period weighted with the floorspace (normally calculated annually, or quarterly on a 12 month rolling basis). It excludes any unrepresentative deals. PRIME YIELD Represents the best (i.e. lowest) rackrented yield estimated to be achievable for a notional office property of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a market, as at the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period). The property should be let at the prevailing market rent to a first class tenant with an occupational lease that is standard for the local market. The prime initial net yield is quoted, i.e., the initial net income at the date of purchase, expressed as a percentage of the total purchase price, which includes acquisition costs and transfer taxes. VACANCY Vacancy represents completed floorspace offered on the open market for leasing or sale, vacant for immediate occupation on the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period), within a market. It includes all vacant accommodation irrespective of the quality of office space or the terms on which it is offered. Vacancy excludes obsolete or mothballed office property, i.e. floorspace held vacant and not being offered for letting, usually pending redevelopment or major refurbishment. Vacancy Rate The Vacancy Rate represents immediately vacant office floorspace in all completed buildings within a market as at the survey date (normally at the end of each quarter period), expressed as a percentage of the total stock. STOCK Stock represents the total amount of completed office space in buildings mainly used for office purposes within a market that is capable of occupation regardless of the type of ownership or type of building quality, as at the survey (normally at the end of each quarter period). COMPLETIONS Completions represent floor-space completed during the survey period (normally annually). Completions include new development and refurbished accommodation, speculative developments, pre-let floor space and space for owner-occupation
15 On Point Brussels Office Market Q JLL OFFICES - BELGIUM Avenue Marnixlaan, 23 b1 B 1000 Bruxelles Brussel T 32 (0) F 32 (0) Jan Van Gentstraat 1 bus 402 B 2000 Antwerpen T 32 (0) F 32 (0) JLL CONTACTS VINCENT H. QUERTON INTERNATIONAL DIRECTOR - CEO BENELUX +32 (0) ERIK VERBRUGGEN (*) HEAD OF OFFICE AGENCY - BELGIUM +32 (0) JEAN-PHILIP VRONINKS (*) HEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS - BELUX +32 (0) PIERRE-PAUL VERELST HEAD OF RESEARCH - BELUX +32 (0) (*) sprl / bvba COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them. Printing information: paper, inks, printing process, recycle directive.