Frequency and Speed Global Lessons

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1 Frequency and Speed Global Lessons October 10, 2012 Rodney Case Partner Oliver Wyman

2 The choice between speed and frequency In many cases around the world, the dominance of mixed networks have limited options to successfully grow both the passenger and freight markets The typical railway operation, globally, is a network with a broad mix of train services, including intercity passenger, commuter, scheduled freight and ad hoc unit trains True high speed remains rare and tightly targeted The majority of the world s intercity passengers trains travel at speeds below 120 mph and are broadly mixed with 60 mph freight train operations The choice between frequency and speed captivates the planners of the worlds railways A broad revival in rail volumes, driven by markets and public policy, are requiring railways find more creative ways to share the increasingly congested networks with higher service performance demands In the competition between fewer fast trains, or more frequent normal speed trains, the war is not over but some decisive battles have been won Oliver Wyman 1

3 Complexity Share of mainline that is double track or more Europe: Infrastructure intensity Railways in Europe operate more trains per similar sized corridor than the US, driven by high-volume mix of passenger and freight operations Train Density Comparison for Increasing Number of Parallel Tracks 60% Russia France Germany 40% Kazakhstan Ukraine Spain India Italy China Japan 20% US / CDA Hungary Czech Republic 0% Intensity Average Trains per day Source: UIC: International Railway Statistics 2006; VNIIZhT. Oliver Wyman 2

4 Kilometers European railways networks are largely mixed operations The German network is designed around mixed operations as that best matches the market place demands Train kilometers by train type 2009 annual Network kilometers by type Route kilometers Freight Local Passenger Only 160 kms are not used by corridor freight trains High Speed Passenger Mixed Freight Only High Speed High Speed train sets spend a large proportion of their train kilometers on the slower legacy network Freight operations cover virtually the full network including the high speed lines Source: Deutsche Bahn AG Oliver Wyman 3

5 Mixed network success Under 125 mph The Swedish railway network supports high service, profitable railways in both the passenger and freight markets Relevant Characteristics Population of approx 9 million people km network 8000 kms single track Over 80% of train miles are electric hauled Train speeds are moderate 125 mph max for passenger 60 mph max for freight Passenger has a 26 % of market for travel > 60 miles Freight has 25% of ton miles for hauls > 60 miles Source: SJ Annual Report 2009,Green Cargo 2009 Approx 300 miles Oliver Wyman 4

6 SJ A Swedish passenger operator The dominant rail carrier, SJ, is able to operate high quality services at a profit in a open access market Source: Bombardier Transportation Company Profile $670 M annual revenue Approx 800 trains per day Average of 150 passengers per train 36.3 Million passengers annually 4,399 Million passenger miles Average trip 121 miles On time percentage (<5 mins) 91% CO 2 grams per passenger km Employees Oliver Wyman 5

7 Percent of market share SJ market fundamentals The rail passenger market in Sweden is dominated by leisure travelers and is competitive with road transport Market Share by Trip Type 100% 1% 5% 90% 17% 80% 4% Air Bus Traveler, Share of Travel % Business 9% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 79% 15% 53% 26% Road Rail Leisure 68% Commuter 23% 0% Medium Long Source: SJ Annual Report 2011

8 Stockholm Gothenburg Corridor SJ operates a high frequency corridor of 289 miles with train service limited to less than 125 mph Key Observations Medium and higher speed trains Frequency and service are key Small market populations Short haul Intercity network Excellent connectivity between various transportation networks Market Size and Length Train and Air Travel Goteborg Stockholm 1 Gothenburg 289 miles 1.2 Stockholm 60% 55% TRAIN miles % 45% AIR Cincinnati Cleveland 40% Source: SJ Annual Report 2009 Source: SJ ticket data and LPV travel statistics.

9 Stockholm Gothenburg Corridor SJ focuses on high frequency corridor with a layering of train options in the higher speed and conventional categories Key Observations The high speed services are hourly with intermediate stops There are non-stop express services that operate 15 minutes faster than the base service. Half of the train services are regional trains operating at freight train speeds The fares, one week out in economy, are between $25 and $170 per trip with business fares topping $230

10 Stockholm Gothenburg Corridor SJ focuses on high frequency corridor with a layering of train options in the higher speed and conventional categories Key Observations 98 mph 91 mph 61 mph 91 mph 77 mph 91 mph 61 mph 91 mph 91 mph 61 mph 91 mph The trains are not competing with airplanes for speed While the trains can do 125 mph, the average speed is more compatible with 60 mph freight The regional trains have very compatible speed profiles with the 40+ daily freight trains There exist midday freight windows that manage the capacity of the double track corridor 91 mph

11 VIA Rail The Montreal Ottawa Toronto corridor VIA has successfully used 100 mph operations as a base design for several decades of operation Key Characteristics 30+ passenger trains per day 60+ MGT freight operation with 12,000 ft trains 100 mph passenger with 60 mph freight trains CTC double track railway on classic wood tie track structures Approx 3 million passengers in a market of 10 million people Heavily congested commuter corridor in Toronto Key Observations Trains are often sold out on peak days On time performance is a key focus of CN, GO and VIA 100 mph equipment and track standards are within classic economic unit costs On board and station amenities have been a clear focus to differentiate against faster competitors Business class meals are from the same vendor as first class aviation Passenger volumes have been steady in the face of strong competition Oliver Wyman 10

12 VIA Rail The Montreal Ottawa Toronto corridor VIA is using a base of 100 mph operations as a the train design to increase frequency and market share Key Strategies Partner with CN and add passing tracks in key areas Create island platforms to end crossing over between tracks Aim for higher performance at current 100 mph limit Reduce time buffers to get more trips from the existing fleet Increase frequency to gain significant market Layer operations to provide more price points between the direct and the slower Ottawa route

13 Key Learnings Speed and Frequency The mix of freight and passenger trains is difficult, but possible, when the two are designed in an integrated fashion both parties must improve Strategic targeting of infrastructure capacity for freight and passenger near stations, terminals and choke points can open significant capacity within double track corridors Ad hoc unit trains are more commonly seen as capacity destroyers by network planners than scheduled train operations with speed differentials Passenger operation s unit costs remain manageable at mid range speeds and allow for attractive market pricing while retaining train profit margins Leisure travel market share often dominates business travel share reducing pressure on transit times but on-time performance is absolute Low cost growth has been attained through methods other than large speed increases on a number of mixed corridor operations world wide Oliver Wyman 12

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