THE LABOR MARKET IN THE GREAT RECESSION
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1 Prepared for Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, March 18-19, 21 Michael Elsby, Bart Hobijn and Ayşegül Şahin THE LABOR MARKET IN THE GREAT RECESSION Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, or the Federal Reserve System as a whole. These slides cover data through April.15 th. Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 1
2 Unemployment Rate, Seasonally-adjusted monthly series Fraction of Labor Force Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 2
3 1973 Q Q Q Q Q4 198 Q Q Q Q3 199 Q2 199 Q Q Q4 2 Q4 21 Q2 21 Q4 22 Q2 22 Q4 23 Q2 26 Q4 27 Q2 27 Q4 28 Q2 28 Q4 29 Q2 29 Q4 Employment and Labor Force Participation Cumulative log changes in E-Pop ratio and LFPR by recession Log change.1. dlog(l/pop) dlog(e/pop) source contact Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 3
4 Okun's Law Based on CBO potential output and Nairu (1949-now) 29Q4 29Q3 29Q2 27 recession Unemployment gap Q1 28Q4 2 28Q3 Prev recession 28Q2 28Q1 No recession Output gap Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Congressional Budget Office -6 Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 4
5 1973 Q Q Q Q Q4 198 Q Q Q Q3 199 Q2 199 Q Q Q4 2 Q4 21 Q2 21 Q4 22 Q2 22 Q4 23 Q2 26 Q4 27 Q2 27 Q4 28 Q2 28 Q4 29 Q2 29 Q4 Hours vs. Bodies by Recession Cumulative log decline in employment and weekly hours per worker Log change Employment Hours Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Productivity and Costs employment and weekly hours series. Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 5
6 Unemployment by Gender Seasonally-adjusted monthly series Percent of Labor Force 12 Female 1 Male Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 6
7 Unemployment by Age Seasonally-adjusted monthly series Percent of Labor Force 25 age age age Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 7
8 Unemployment by Race/Ethnicity Seasonally-adjusted monthly series Percent of Labor Force Black 1 Hispanic White, non-hispanic Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 8
9 Unemployment by Education Seasonally-adjusted monthly series Percent of Labor Force <12 years 12 years years 16+ years Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 9
10 Composition-Adjusted Unemployment Adjusted for full age, gender, race and education interactions Percent of Labor Force 12 Published Unemployment Rate Composition Adjusted Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Adjusted for full age, gender, race, and education interactions Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 1
11 Gender-Adjusted Unemployment Percent of Labor Force 12 Gender Adjusted Unemployment Rate Published Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 11
12 Age-Adjusted Unemployment Adjusted for 16-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, and 55+ age groups Percent of Labor Force 12 Published Unemployment Rate Age Adjusted Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 12
13 Race/Ethnicity-Adjusted Unemployment Adjusted for white, black, and hispanic groups Percent of Labor Force 14 Race/Ethnicity Adjusted Unemployment Rate Published Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 13
14 Education-Adjusted Unemployment Adjusted for <12, 12, 13-15, and 16+ years of education Percent of Labor Force 12 Published Unemployment Rate Education Adjusted Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 14
15 Outflow Rate, f 1.2 Unemployment Inflow and Outflow Rates Quarterly averages of monthly data based on Shimer (27) Inflow Rate, s Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations.. Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 15
16 1948 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 196 Q2 196 Q Q2 197 Q1 197 Q Q Q3 Contributions of Inflow vs. Outflow Rates, Cumulative log change in hazards since start of unemployment ramp up Log Change 1 Log Change in Inflow Rate - Log Change in Outflow Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 16
17 1973 Q Q Q Q Q3 198 Q1 198 Q Q Q Q3 199 Q2 199 Q Q Q Q2 2 Q4 21 Q2 21 Q4 22 Q2 22 Q4 23 Q2 27 Q1 27 Q3 28 Q1 28 Q3 29 Q1 29 Q3 Contributions of Inflow vs. Outflow Rates, Cumulative log change in hazards since start of unemployment ramp up Log Change 1.8 Log Change in Inflow Rate (s) - Log Change in Outflow Rate (f) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 17
18 Outflow Rates by Gender 12-month moving averages of seasonally adjusted data Monthly hazard.9.8 Women Men Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 18
19 Outflow Rates by Age Group 12-month moving average of seasonally adjusted data Monthly Hazard Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 19
20 Unemployment Outflow Rates by Race/Ethnicity 12-month moving average of seasonally adjusted data Monthly Hazard.9 Hispanic.8 White.7 Asian.6.5 Black Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 2
21 Outflow Rates by Education 12-month moving average of seasonally adjusted data Monthly Hazard Rate < Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survery, and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 21
22 Inflow Rates by Gender Monthly Hazard.6.5 Women.4 Men Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 22
23 Inflow Rates by Age Group 12-month moving average of seasonally adjusted data Monthly Hazard Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 23
24 Unemployment Inflow Rates by Race/Ethnicity 12-month moving average of seasonally adjusted data Monthly Hazard.12.1 Black.8 Hispanic.6 White.4 Asian Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, and authors' calculations.2 Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 24
25 Inflow Rates by Education 12-month moving average of seasonally adjusted data Monthly Hazard.7 < Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 25
26 Inflow Rates by Reason for Unemployment Inflow Hazard.4 Entrant Inflow Rate Layoff Inflow Rate.2.15 Quit Inflow Rate Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 26
27 Outflow Rates by Reason for Unemployment Monthly hazards based on Elsby, Michaels and Solon (29) Outflow Hazard 1.2 Quit Outflow Rate 1 Entrant Outflow Rate Layoff Outflow Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 27
28 Separation Rate vs. E-U Transition Rate Monthly rates computed from JOLTS and CPS data Total Separation Rate Monthly Rate E-U Transition Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations. Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 28
29 Separations vs. Unemployment Inflows: Quits Monthly rates computed from JOLTS and CPS data Monthly Rate (log scale).63 Quit Separation Rate Quit Inflow Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations..1 Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 29
30 Separations vs. Unemployment Inflows: Layoffs Monthly rates computed from JOLTS and CPS data Monthly Rate (log scale).31 Layoff Separation Rate.16 Layoff Inflow Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations..4 Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 3
31 Beveridge Curve HP-filtered log-levels of unemployment rate and vacancies Vacancies.4 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jul-8 Jun-8 No recession Aug-8.2. Previous recessions Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Jan-1 Jan-9 Feb-1 Sep-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jun-9 Dec-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Aug-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 27 recession Unemployment rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Barnichon (29), and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 31
32 Matching Function HP-filtered log-levels; seasonally adjusted Outflow hazard rate.6 No recession.4 Jan-8 Previous recessions Dec-8 Oct-8 Aug-8 Apr-8 Mar-8 Feb-8 Jul-8 May-8 Jun-8.2 Sep-8 Dec-9 Jun-9 Mar-9 May-9 Nov-9 Oct-9 Aug-9 Jan-1 Apr-9 Sep-9 Jul-9 Feb-1 Jan-9 Feb-9 27 recession Nov Vacancy-unemployment ratio Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Barnichon (29), and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 32
33 Unemployment Outflow Hazards by Industry 12-m moving averages of monthly data Monthly outflow hazard.8.7 Construction.6.5 Total.4 Information Durable Goods.3 Financial Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 33
34 Outflow probabilities by duration Quarterly averages of seasonally adjusted monthly rates F(m-1m) Fraction.7.6 F(1m-3m).5.4 F(3m-6m) F(6m+) Source: Current Population Survey, authors' calculations Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 34
35 Aggregate outflow probability simulations Outflow probability simulation based on 1983 recovery Monthly outflow probability.55 F(m-1m).5.45 Aggregate F 1983-based.4.35 Aggregate F counterfactual F(1m-3m) F(3m-6m) F(6m+) Source: Assuming post 1982 recession percentage changes in outflow rates Elsby/Hobijn/Sahin, 3/5/21 Labor Market in the Great Recession 35
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