OVERVIEW OF MANITOBA HYDRO S SYSTEM. David Cormie Joanne Flynn

Transcription

1 OVERVIEW OF MANITOBA HYDRO S SYSTEM S David Cormie Joanne Flynn

2 Outline Manitoba Hydro s Existing System Hydro System Characteristics Planning Objective and Criteria Lake Winnipeg Impacts Keeyask and/or Conawapa 2

3 Capacity and Energy Defined Capacity available Maximum rate of power output Megawatts (MW) that the generator can be relied upon to produce MH system = 6,265 MW Energy produced 1 GWh = 1,000 MWh = 1,000,000 kwh MH system generates an average of 32,000 GWh annually Manitoba domestic demand 25,500 GWh annually 3

4 Overview of the Existing System

5 Manitoba Hydro A medium sized utility Predominately hydro power Large variability in generation Physically remote in northwest corner of Eastern Interconnection Surrounded by predominately summer peaking thermal generation utilities mainly to the southeast Transmission constrained

6 Power System Installed Capacity: Hydro (winter peak) 5200 MW Thermal 515 MW Purchases Capacity: Imports (Diversity) 550 MW Wind (250 MW) 0 MW Total 6265 MW Laurie River Wuskwatim Henday Radisson Jenpeg Grand Rapids Kelsey Limestone Long Spruce Kettle Transmission Lines: Total km 6885 km Brandon St. Leon Wind Farm Selkirk Dorsey St. Joseph Wind Farm Pine Falls Great Falls McArthur Falls Seven Sisters Pointe du Bois Slave Falls

7 Manitoba Hydro Drainage Basins Alberta Upper Churchill Saskatchewan 19% Manitoba Lower Churchill Saskatchewan River Nelson River Local 20% 16% Montana Red River 6% North Dakota 39% Winnipeg River South Dakota Minnesota 7

8 Historical Water Supply 160% System Inflows 140% 120% Percent of Average 100% 80% 60% 40% Average Flow Dependable Flow 20% 2012/13 (actual/exp.) 0% 2013/14 (median) Fiscal Year Beginning 8

9 Transmission Interconnections Long Term Firm 225 MW 288 MW 2175 MW Transfer Capabilities i (Scheduling Limits) Export Import U.S 1950 MW 700 MW Ontario 200 MW 0 MW Sask. 150 MW 0 MW Interconnections built to maximize the value of surplus capacity and energy 9

10 Reservoir Storage g Store water for future generation Time of greater value/need 2 12 TWh Energy in Manitoba Reservoir Storage Average Key reservoirs 14 Energy (TWh h) Lake Winnipeg Cedar C d LLake k Southern Indian Lake TWh Subject to limits Maximum Minimum 2 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Data Current as of

11 Hydro System Characteristics

12 Characteristics of a Predominantly Hydro System Large Water Variability Energy Constrained System Resource Diversity Transmission Limitations Long Lead Times Large Investments 12

13 Energy Constrained System Designed to meet energy requirements under the critical flow period Designed to meet peak load requirements Surplus in all flow conditions other than critical flow period 13

14 Resource Diversity Provides a mix of generation types in times of drought or high fuel prices Mix of resources can be achieved by building in Manitoba or by relying on purchased power over interconnections 14

15 Transmission Limitations Hydro generation is remote requires transmission to move power to load centers Lack of transmission means congestion More congestion unless new transmission is built to handle additional surplus Congestion exists it today Export to Ontario North Dakotawind Limited ability to move power across Canada/US 15

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17 Planning Objectives and Criteria

18 Planning Objectives Secure resources to meet the future energy and capacity needs of Manitoba Obligation to serve Meet committed firm sales Do so at the least net cost to Manitoba customers Environmental and social impacts considered 18

19 Manitoba Hydro s Generation Planning Cit Criteriai Capacity Criterion Sufficient capacity to meet forecast peak load, plus 12% reserve increase in demand above forecast breakdown of plant recognizes that load growth and equipment availability is subject to uncertainty Energy Resource Planning Criterion There must be sufficient energy supply available to meet firm energy demand din the event the lowest recorded ddcoincident id water supply conditions are repeated Sources of dependable energy are hydro, thermal, wind purchases energy imports 19

20 Energy Defined Dependable Energy Energy produced by the system under the lowest flow conditions on record Average Energy The average of energy produced based on all historic flow conditions Maximum Energy Energy produced as a result of most favorable flow conditions on record 20

21 Hydro Energy 160% 140% 120% % of Averag ge 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Critical Flow Period Dependable Inflows 2011/12 0% Fiscal Year Beginning 21

22 Energy Sources Hydro Energy Dependable Inflows, plus Maximum Use of Manitoba Reservoir Storage Thermal Energy Station output if operated continuously Derated for outages and maintenance Coal, natural gas Wind Energy 85% of average annual wind generation Purchased Energy Must be on firm transmission Available under contract Available in off peak periods from organized market 22

23 Surplus Energy By Design Annual Ene ergy (GW.h h) Firm Load Surplus Energy (Minimum and predictable) Surplus Energy (maximum and unpredictable) Add new Plant Just in Time Construction Minimum/Maximum spread Gets bigger with each new plant Number of Years 23

24 Variability in Hydro Energy Supply PAST PRESENT FUTURE TWh TWh 15 TWh GW W.h Median Flow 6 TWh 8 TWh Limestone Surplus Energy 12 TWh Conawapa Keeyask Wuskwatim Kettle Long Spruce & Jenpeg Dependable Energy

25 Value of Interconnections Provides Market Access Export of surplus power Import of a diverse source of power Capacity sharing due to load diversity Risk mitigation Emergencies Load forecast Climate change Enhances Gid Grid Reliability Sharing of required reserves Decreases OverallRegionalGHG s 25

26 Market Access = Market Price Summer Day Hour Winter Day Hour Spotmarket wholesale electricityprice Highly variable dependant on many, many factors $2000 to +$2000 per MWh No typical price Always changing On peak, off peak averages used Marginal cost of hydraulic energy $5/MWh Hydro is flexible 26

27 Spot Price Change every 5 minutes MHEB: $

28 Hydro Large Investments High capital cost investment Majority of cost in civil structures Low, stable operating costs that t contribute t to stable rate increases Large plants can satisfy if many years of Manitoba load growth 28

29 Hydro Extremely Long Lead Times Exploration, Engineering, Environment Negotiations, Approvals, Licensing Construction Increasingly complex 20 years becoming normal 1/2 a career or more Keeyask 2019 Conawapa

30 Preferred Development Plan Keeyask G.S. (695 MW) 2019/20 Conawapa G.S. (1485 MW) 2026/27 New 500 kv US Interconnection 2020 Sale Agreements Minnesota Power Wisconsin Public Service Northern States Power Others 30

31 Resource Sequence Comparisons Consistent methodology used to evaluate all new resource additions PUB, CEC and NFAT submissions Standard Industry Practice Applied to all forms of new supply options Hydro Thermal Wind Purchases 31

32 System Impacts Adding new generation can impact the entire MH system Existing hydro and thermal stations Imports Exports Adding new generation in combination with new interconnections, new export and import contracts becomes even more complicated Physical, Financial, Environmental and Rates Impactsfrom new generation onlyone one of many variables 32

33 Lake Winnipeg 12 th largest lake in world 50% of storage in Nelson Churchill watershed Primarily regulated for Hydropower 711 to 715 feet Flood Control >715 feet WPA Licence Lake Winnipeg Regulation Works LWR regulates flow of Nelson River Outflows controlled at Jenpeg pggs 50% more outflow is possible 69% of MH generation downstream Post Keeyask/Conawapa 78% 33

34 Preferred Development Plan Impact on Lake Winnipeg i What won t change Terms of WPA License Approach to Lake Winnipeg regulation Obligations to stakeholders What will change Outflows and Levels Changes will be minor Major driver is water supply 34

35 Lake Winnipeg Water Levels (with and without ih regulation ) Without Regulation With Regulation Minor change in water regime expected as a result of proposed new projects 35

36 Questions 36