EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update August Copyright Eiendomsverdi

Transcription

1 EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update August 2016

2 Executive summary Nominally prices grew 2.8 percent, 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted Volumes for August were at the highest levels we have seen for the last 10 years Echoing the picture from last month, unsold-stock is falling in Stavanger whilst remaining very low in Oslo and Trondheim Nationwide sell-ask spread widening sharply, now at 5.6 percent Sell-ask spread in Oslo remains at an extreme level, though narrowing somewhat to 14.7 Apartments in Oslo are now 16.6 percent more expensive than last August

3 August up 2.8 percent; up 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted

4 Year/Year growth: 9.1 percent

5 The Norwegian Housing Price Statistics summary: The market in August continued upwards, growing 2.8 percent nominally from last month Seasonally adjusted prices increased by 1.1 percent August is usually a month which experiences large growth rates, however this month outperformed the average for August of 2.2 percent (2003 basis) Year/Year growth now at 9.1 percent, which is unparalleled since September 2011 Table 1. Summary The Nowegian Housing Price Statistics Index (Jan 03 = 100) 249,9 Change August-16 2,8 % Change August-15 2,5 % Change August-14 1,6 % Change July-16 0,2 % Change June-16 0,2 % Year over Year 9,1 % 5 Years 34,7 % Price Change since all time high 0,0 % Price Change since previous trough 26,7 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi Index

6 The Norwegian Housing Price Statistics, segmented by housing type

7 Housing prices by housing type August, as July, showed vast differences in monthly growth rate between housing types However, this month the picture is flipped. Terraced and detached grew with 6.2 and 4.6 percent, while apartments grew 1.4 percent The high growth rates for detached and terraced are quite normal for August, with prices tending to grow after the dip in the summer holiday month of July Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 238,1 246,8 255,7 Change August-16 4,6 % 6,2 % 1,4 % Change August-15 4,9 % 4,0 % 1,1 % Change August-14 2,6 % 1,7 % 1,1 % Change July-16-2,3 % -4,1 % 2,2 % Change June-16-1,2 % 1,2 % 0,6 % Year over Year 6,0 % 7,4 % 10,9 % 5 Years 28,0 % 28,6 % 39,4 % Price Change since all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 22,8 % 20,9 % 29,7 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

8 The Nowegian Housing Price Statistics by county

9 Housing prices for selected counties Every single county experienced positive growth this month Even with a solid 1.8 percent growth rate, Hordaland was the worst performing county Strong growth in the counties surrounding Oslo Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Akershus Buskerud Østfold Index (Jan 03 = 100) 271,3 272,0 266,4 264,0 243,9 247,7 222,8 Change August-16 2,7 % 1,8 % 2,3 % 2,2 % 3,4 % 3,5 % 3,4 % Change August-15 1,7 % 2,5 % 2,1 % 2,1 % 3,0 % 3,0 % 2,9 % Change August-14 1,3 % 1,6 % 1,6 % 1,3 % 1,6 % 1,9 % 1,9 % Change July-16 1,8 % 0,1 % 0,5 % -1,1 % -0,5 % -0,4 % -0,3 % Change June-16 1,3 % -0,5 % 0,1 % -1,2 % 0,7 % 0,4 % 0,1 % Year over Year 16,3 % 3,5 % 7,7 % -3,1 % 11,6 % 10,7 % 10,0 % 5 Years 51,2 % 30,2 % 37,6 % 7,4 % 39,4 % 41,2 % 35,6 % Price Change since all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -5,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous trough 39,5 % 22,7 % 23,8 % 1,9 % 30,2 % 29,1 % 29,9 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

10 Apartments in selected cities

11 Summary apartments in the big cities Oslo was the best performing of the big cities with a monthly growth of 2.5 percent, Drammen coming in second with 1.7 percent Oslo s year/year growth for apartments continue to grow from already high levels, now at 16.6 percent Stavanger down 0.8 percent, despite a somewhat promising July. Prices in Stavanger are now 10.5 percent lower then at the all time high of February 2013 Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Index (Jan 03 = 100) 272,2 276,3 263,5 264,2 228,8 266,0 279,7 257,0 Change August-16 2,5 % 0,3 % 1,1 % -0,8 % 0,4 % 1,2 % 1,7 % 1,0 % Change August-15 1,5 % 1,1 % 0,7 % -0,1 % 0,8 % 0,9 % 0,7 % 1,3 % Change August-14 1,2 % 1,3 % 1,1 % 0,7 % 0,7 % 2,2 % 1,4 % 1,4 % Change July-16 2,2 % 1,8 % 2,3 % 1,6 % 1,9 % 1,8 % 2,1 % 1,8 % Change June-16 1,3 % -0,3 % 0,4 % -1,0 % 0,0 % 0,1 % 0,8 % -0,1 % Year over Year 16,6 % 2,9 % 8,0 % -6,2 % 4,2 % 5,0 % 13,1 % 8,8 % 5 Years 52,5 % 31,9 % 37,1 % 1,1 % 8,1 % 53,8 % 51,7 % 44,0 % Price Change since all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -10,5 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 40,3 % 23,2 % 22,7 % -3,5 % 17,3 % 34,8 % 31,6 % 30,2 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

12 Unsold stock

13 Unsold stock in Oslo and Bergen

14 Unsold stock in Trondheim and Stavanger Area

15 Age of inventory in August (unsold stock)

16 Volumes in August

17 Year to date volumes

18 Time on the market

19 Prices in Norway, UK, Sweden, Denmark and the USA Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi

20 Sell/ask spread for Norway: 5.6 percent

21 The sell-ask spread in Oslo, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger

22 Sell-ask spread in Tromsø, Drammen, Kristiansand and Bodø

23 Summary of the sell-ask spread The sell/ask spread rose sharply in August, now at 5.6 percent. This is the highest it has been since February 2007 Although the spread narrowed some in Oslo, it is still at formidable levels at 14.7 percent Drammen sets a new all-time high at 9.0 percent The spread in Stavanger narrows, but is still well within negative territory Table 5. Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price August-16 Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Norway 14,7 % 3,7 % 4,4 % -2,5 % -0,3 % 1,9 % 9,0 % 4,9 % 5,6 % Average 5,3 % 4,4 % 2,6 % 1,5 % 1,2 % -0,4 % 2,5 % 1,6 % 2,3 % All-time high 15,3 % 11,8 % 7,9 % 10,2 % 10,0 % 4,1 % 9,0 % 6,2 % 6,3 % Date All time high ( ) jul. 16 jan. 05 feb. 13 aug. 06 feb. 07 feb. 07 aug. 16 aug. 06 aug. 06 All-time low -6,4 % -5,0 % -5,8 % -5,9 % -7,1 % -9,0 % -3,2 % -7,7 % -5,7 % Date All time low ( ) des. 08 des. 08 nov. 08 nov. 08 des. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 des. 08 des. 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi

24 Housing starts in Norway for July Source:SSB

25 12 month rolling rate Source:SSB

26 Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices under-estimated by 0.06 % 4,0 % 3,0 % 2,0 % 1,0 % 0,0 % -1,0 % 2,0 % 3,0 % 4,0 % 5,0 % Source:SSB 2016

27 Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB Sentrum, N Oslo Tel: Fax: post@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: al@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Audun Houmb Sjøli Tel: ahs@eiendomsverdi.no