Fiona Ling Principal Hydrologist Entura - Hydro Tasmania Australia

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1 Fiona Ling Principal Hydrologist Entura - Hydro Tasmania Australia

2 Inflow and Flood Forecasting for the Hydro Tasmania System Hydro Tasmania s system Forecasting system Inflow and flood model development Use of models Model performance

3 Hydro Tasmania s System Total capacity of 2600MW Complex system including 30 power stations more than 50 major dams 6 major catchments 2 major storages total capacity 13,000GL 5 seasonal storages Run of river storages Supplies electricity to Tasmania and into National Electricity Market (NEM) via Basslink

4 Major Catchments

5 Basslink High voltage undersea DC cable continuous rating 480 MW dynamic rating 600 MW for 10hours if pre-cooled 300MW for 6 hours

6 Derwent-Nive System

7 Derwent-Nive System S t.c la ir P ic k U p L a k e S t.c la ir S to ra g e R 1 M 1 D e rw e n t N iv e C a s c a d e L a k e K in g W illia m S to ra g e B U T L E R S G O R G E P.S L.K in g W illa im P ic k U p H ig h la n d C a n a ls B ro n te L a g o o n P ic k U p P ic k U p P ic k U p L a k e E c h o S to ra g e E C H O P.S R 6 M 6 D e rw e n t P u m p s P ic k U p C a n a l 2 B ra d y's L a k e D e e L a g o o n R 5 Blue storage Green inflow Pink power D e rw e n t P u m p s R 2 C a n a l 1 T A R R A L E A H P.S M o s s y M a rs h P ic k U p L ia p o o ta h S to ra g e L IA P O O T A H P.S R 7 L a k e B in n e y T U N G A T IN A H P.S P ic k U p L a k e T u n g a t in a h S to ra g e L ia p o o ta h P ic k U p M 5 station M 2 W a ya tin a h P ic k U p M 7 W a ya tin a h S to ra g e C a t a g u n ya P ic k U p R e p u ls e P ic k U p W A Y A T IN A H P.S R 2 6 M 2 6 C lu n y P ic k U p R e p u ls e S to ra g e C A T A G U N Y A P.S C a ta g u n ya S to ra g e R E P U L S E P.S C lu n y S t o ra g e H ig h la n d C a n a ls M e a d o w b a n k P ic k U p C L U N Y P.S R 3 M 3 M e a d o w b a n k S to ra g e M E A D O W B A N K P.S R 4 M 4 O c e a n

8 Flow forecasting 7 day inflow forecast for each storage Operator decision support system System models Trading models 2 day flood forecast Operator decision support system Dam safety intranet Automated alarms and warnings

9 System models System models used to simulate the complex system including 40 storages, 27 hydro power stations, 1 wind generator Models used to: Optimise operating rules Price energy contracts Estimate thermal generation requirements Determine merit order for hydro generators for bidding into NEM (trading) Plan new generation increments and outages for maintenance and repair Study energy trading between interconnected power systems

10 Case Study Flow Forecast Example Inputs - actual and forecast rainfall, flows Power station operating rules Model automated on a scheduler Model detects alarm conditions Model outputs (forecasts) Written directly back to the database Displayed via intranet Displayed on operator DSS

11 Forecasting system architecture System Operator Scheduler Run Requests Control Data Processing Requests SCADA Data TIME SERIES MANAGER Forecast Data Real-Time Data Reports, graphics Data management Schedule control Flood Warning Telemetry Forecast Rainfall Inflow Forecast Model Real- Time Remote Site

12 Telemetered Streamflow Sites Telemetered Rainfall Sites Real-time data input

13 Forecast rainfall input Gridded rainfall data downscaled from global climate models 7 day forecast skill decreases with increasing forecast time Provided by Bureau of Meteorology twice daily Imported automatically from ftp site to database

14 Mersey-Forth Catchment

15 Mersey Forth Power Development Run of River System 7 Power Stations Combined generation of 308MW 15.8% of Tasmania s power needs

16 Catchment definition

17 Sub-catchment definition

18 Node-link network

19 Rainfall inputs

20 Real-Time Correction Global Node Water Balance Real-Time Data

21 Rainfall-runoff model Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM) Continuous accountability of the state of the ground water stores Redundancy code to switch between operating raingauges, and then to the forecast rainfall. Hotstart file to maintain continuity between successive model runs. Also controls the model start time Finish time determined by the Forecast Rainfall

22 Water balance with AWBM Model run-off processes on a continual basis Soil wetness estimated to determine infiltration and direct runoff Storage balanced according to rainfall inflow and outflow to ground water stores

23 Model Calibration Modelled to observed flow calibrated at gauging site

24 Scheduling models Models automatically executed at regular intervals for flow and flood forecasting Graphical and text-based outputs automated Published to intranet Saved in database Displayed in operator interface

25 Outputs - intranet

26 Outputs - intranet

28 Alarms and warnings

29 Model Performance Limited by quality of forecast rainfall data Reviewed annually and recalibrated if required Reviewed after major flood events Feedback from operators and dam safety personnel continuous improvement

30 Forecast lake level Observed lake level 6 hour forecast lake level 24 hour forecast lake level Lake level (m) Aug 1 Aug 6 Aug 11 Aug 16 Aug 21 Aug 26 Aug 00:00:00 to 00:00:00)

31 Thank-you Acknowledgement of co-author Jayson Peterson

New challenges of water resources management: Title the future role of CHy

New challenges of water resources management: Title the future role of CHy by Bruce Stewart* Karl Hofius in his article in this issue of the Bulletin entitled Evolving role of WMO in hydrology and water