World Economic Dynamics (WED) Model: Modeling and forecasting of global economy and total primary energy consumption

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1 World Economic Dynamics (WED) Model: Modeling and forecasting of global economy and total primary energy consumption Inforum World Conference Alexandria, USA Nafisa Bakhtizina, Rosneft

2 WED Content General Methodology Economic modeling and forecasting Primary energy modeling and forecasting Electricity output modeling and forecasting Oil consumption modeling and forecasting Gas consumption modeling and forecasting Coal consumption and forecasting 2

3 Modeling and forecasting global economy and primary energy consumption: methodology Share of world GDP PPP by WED countries «Other countries»- 11% Argentina Belarus Brazil Colombia EU Indonesia Japan South Korea Mexico Russia South Africa Turkey UAE Venezuela Australia Canada China Egypt India Iran Kazakhstan Malaysia Pakistan Saudi Arabia Thailand Ukraine USA Vietnam Our analysis takes into account historical data from 1980 to The main sources of information are: The World Bank, International Monetary Fund, International Energy Agency. We present global economy and energy projections in the period to Our model and projections include 27 countries, European Union, and aggregate «Other countries» (89% of world GDP and primary energy consumption in 2013). 3

4 Modeling and forecasting global economy and primary energy consumption: WED model Economic module Energy module Incremental capital-output ratio Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) GDP, PPP (2005 trillion $) Population (million people) GDP per capita (2005 thousand $) GDP per capita growth (annual %) GDP growth (annual %) Total primary energy consumption (Mtoe), includes: Oil, Gas, Coal, Nuclear power, Hydro power, Other renewables Primary energy consumption per thousand $ GDP (Mtoe) Primary energy consumption per capita (Mtoe) Electricity production (TWh) 4

5 Modeling and forecasting global economy and primary energy consumption: general logic Projections for economic dynamic 5

6 WED Content General methodology Economic modeling and forecasting Primary energy modeling and forecasting Electricity output modeling and forecasting Oil consumption modeling and forecasting Gas consumption modeling and forecasting Coal consumption and forecasting 6

7 Economic growth: modeling GDP per capita growth t = Gross fixed capital formation t-1 / (Incremental capital-output ratio t-1 + 1) Key assumptions: The United States remains the leader in the field of economy and technology. In the long run, the gap between other countries and the United States will be reduced Developing countries are trying to achieve the level of developed countries by increasing the Gross fixed capital formation Productivity of capital will decline in all countries (in the absence of breakthroughs in science and technology) Working-age population in the major developed countries is reduced. Population growth rates in emerging economies are also gradually declining 7

8 Economic growth: forecasting 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Average annual world GDP PPP growth rate EU India China Russia USA World Share of world GDP PPP growth by country In our projections developed and emerging economics both will see a decline in their annual GDP PPP growth rate. Economic growth rates, which were before the crisis of 2008, will not be achieved trillion $ USA Japan Korea EU Russia China India Brazil The share of developed economies in global GDP growth will rise. But the main contribution to the global economic dynamics will be made by emerging economies Other 8

9 Economic growth: forecasting trillion $ World GDP PPP The structure of global GDP will change to 2045 : the share of developed countries (EU, USA, Japan) falls % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Share of world GDP PPP by country 0% Japan USA Russia Korea China Canada India Brazil EU Other the share of emerging economies (India, China) rises China become the largest world economy in 2020 the share of Russia and Brazil not increases 9

10 WED Content General methodology Economic modeling and forecasting Primary energy consumption modeling and forecasting Electricity output modeling and forecasting Oil consumption modeling and forecasting Gas consumption modeling and forecasting Coal consumption modeling and forecasting 10

11 Total primary energy consumption: modeling Energy intensity growth rate (EI) GDP elasticity of energy intensity forecast Regression EI t = a GDP t + b Regression coefficients Total primary energy consumption forecast GDP growth rate (GDP) GDP forecast Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 3-step methodology: preparing data, regression, calculation of forecasts 1 1

12 Total primary energy consumption: forecasting World total primary energy consumption and energy intensity trillion toe toe/$ In our projections global energy demand increases by 50% from 2013 to Primary energy consumption Energy intensity (right axis) Driven with government policy in support of energy efficiency, improvement in primary energy intensity is expected to continue trillion toe World primary energy consumption by fuel Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Renewables Demand increases for all types of energy (but at a significantly different rates): oil 35%; gas 78%; coal 32%; nuclear 55%; hydro 45%; renewables 67%

13 Total primary energy consumption: forecasting 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Share of world primary energy consumption by fuel Oil Gas Coal Hydro As a result the share of gas, other renewables in global primary energy consumption will rise to % 20% 10% 0% Total primary energy consumption by country Primary energy consumption Nuclear Renewables The share of oil and coal will fall. The shear of nuclear, hydro remaining constant. Emerging economics (China, India) and USA will be a key drivers of global energy demand growth EU India China Russia USA Japan 13

14 Thank you for your attention! 14

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