Air Transportation is a Complex Adaptive System not an Aircraft Design: Innovation at the Interface of Disciplines

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1 Air Transportation is a Complex Adaptive System not an Aircraft Design: Innovation at the Interface of Disciplines Dr. George L. Donohue Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research George Mason University

2 Problem > 11 % of US Disposable Personal Income goes to Transportation Highways and Airways are Approaching Gridlock and Hub lock Traditional Engineering Approaches are Failing to Find Solutions New and Innovative Systems Approach is required to overcome Traditional Stovepipe solution shortfalls and Political/Economic Barriers GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 2

3 The Aviation Capacity and Safety Challenge Air Traffic Could Triple in Next 20 Years The current air traffic management system is near its capacity limits with extensive system delays and inefficiencies resulting in annual losses to users estimated at over $3.5B. GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 3

4 National Airspace System GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 4

5 Hub and Spoke Network Completely Connected Network = 2(N-1) Flights (eg., 50 Airports, 98 Flights) Ref: J. Hansman, MIT GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 5

6 Hub Airports Becoming Saturated 120% ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF AIRPORTS at 4 N.M. Arrival Separation (32 Arrivals/Rw/Hr) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% San Fransisco John Wayne Las Vegas Mineapolis Newark LaGuardia 0% YEAR GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 6

7 Air Transportation System at 58% Max Capacity HUB & SPOKE OPS GROWTH at 57 US MAJOR AIRPORTS A/C OPS/YR CAP 7 Km 50% MAX CAP 5 Km sep YEAR GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 7

8 ATS Delays will Grow Exponentially PREDICTED DELAY vs. CAPACITY FRACTION NUMBER DELAYS ( >15 min / 1000 operations) % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% AIRPORT CAPACITY FRACTION GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 8

9 Inter City Transportation: Time for a Paradigm Shift? Relative Market Growth Model T Assembly Line 10% 90% DC-3 First VORs 10% Cars Displace Trains Jet Transports 90% 10% GPS 90% 10% Propliners Displace Cars VDL, ACR GAP Engines 90% Small Aircraft Transportation System? Jetliners Displace Props GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 9

10 Vision of the Future for Inter- Modal Transportation GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 10

11 Fully Connected Network Completely Connected Network = N(N-1) (eg., 50 Airports, 2450 Flights) Ref: J. Hansman, MIT GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 11

12 National Air Transportation Network GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 12

13 ATM System Functional Structure (Boeing Model) Weather Schedule of Capacities Desired Sector Loads Clearance Requests Execution Clearance Requests Flight Planning National Flow Planning Facility Flow Planning Sector Traffic Planning Sector Traffic Control Aircraft Guidance and Navigation Flight Schedule Planning Safety Traffic Sensor Airline CFMU TMU D-Side R-Side Pilot Efficiency Throughput AC State Sensor Other AC GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 13

14 Future Air Traffic Broadband Network Requirements AIRBORNE WEATHER OBSERVATION VOICE MESSAGING NEGOTIATION POSITION/ INTENT AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS, MAINTENANCE ADS-B AIRCRAFT AUTOMET FIS TIS APAXS CPC CPDLC ADS-B WEATHER NAS STATUS TV, RADIO INTERNET Commercial Service Provider AOC COMM DSSDL NWIS OTHER AUTHORIZED USERS INTERNATIONAL MILITARY FBO S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL AIRLINES OPERATIONS CENTER GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 14

15 Next-Generation Data link Communications GEO LEO/MEO Systems GEO Military Regional/ Commuters Line-of- Site Ground Networks Gateway General Aviation Commercial Service Providers Commercial Transport Corporate Ground Earth Station Rotorcraft Terminal Area GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 15

16 System Integration GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 16

17 Auto Flight Issues Large Number of Aircraft will require High degree of GA Flight Deck Automation to Increase Safety Control and Communication aspects of Distributed Multi Aircraft environments, evaluation of control laws as a function of Airspace Dynamic Density Cooperating Auto Pilots and Collision Avoidance Systems will stress Wireless Communications Bandwidth Loads and Protocols need to be evaluated Human - Computer Interaction requires a Cognitive Workload Experimental Evaluation GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 17

18 BACKUP MATERIAL GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 18

19 Telcom System Issues Utilization Civil Transport General Aviation Military Quality-of-Service Timeliness/Latency Priority Availability Redundancy Robustness Service Provider FAA Other Government Public / Private Commercial Phase-of-Flight Planning Surface Movement Terminal Operations En Route / Oceanic Avionics Issues Equipage / Avionics Cost Applicability Across Platforms Mandatory/Primary/Optional Architecture - OSA / Proprietary Level of Integration Link Characteristics Delivery Voice/Data Simplex/Duplex Broadcast Line-of-sight Over-the-Horizon Spectrum / Frequency Bandwidth Modulation Access Technique Coverage Global Regional Oceanic Line-of-Sight GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 19

20 Perceived Barriers to Paradigm Shift There is not enough Airspace Aircraft are Too Hard to Fly Aircraft are Too Expensive Flying is Not Safe Airports are Too Noisy GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 20

21 Airspace & Airports Free Flight Paradigm should allow more aircraft in the enroute airspace ( > X 20? ) > 5,000 Airports in US within 30 minutes of population Direct Flight Opportunities However: SATS Operations will Grow like N(N-1) vs. 2(N-1) for Hub and Spoke GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 21

22 Aircraft Human Factors Large commercial aircraft now have: 3 axis auto-pilots & auto-landing modes 3 D GPS Moving Map Displays Terrain and Aircraft Collision Avoidance Non-Recurring costs have been Amortized Recurring costs for new GA should be small GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 22

23 Air Transportation Activity - ETMS Data US IFR & FLIGHT FOLLOWING AIR TRAFFIC ACTIVITY 6000 NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT ALOFT TH 4/15/99 FR 4/16/99 SA 4/17/99 SU 4/18/99 MO 4/19/99 EST 5433 PEAK 7:30 23: TIME OF DAY (HOUR,EST) GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 23

24 A/P Growth Req d to Avoid Hub Delay Increase (DPAT model) Average Arrival/Departure Delays (minutes per aircraft) No major changes to airline schedules, fleet mix, operations Traffic growth = 2.3% per year Clear weather conditions Hold delays to today s levels 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Increase in Airport Arrival/Departure Rates GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY 24

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