On-board connectivity

Transcription

1 Satellite On-board connectivity Can satellite compete with LTE? M14322 May 2014 This document is a part of our "Satellite" category which includes in 2014: - 4 market reports in Word, each with its synopsis in PowerPoint - Privileged access to our lead Satellite analysts

2 Author : Maxime BAUDRY, Co-Head, Satellite-Aerospace Practice Maxime joined IDATE as a senior consultant in April His main area of endeavour is monitoring the aerospace industry, the telecommunications services market and operator strategies. Before coming to IDATE, Maxime worked for two years for Aon Explorer, a strategic consulting firm specialised in the space industry, where his work focused primarily on industrial analysis of satellite telecommunications for space agencies and the sector s equipment providers. Mr. Baudry holds a Masters degree in Technology & Management (Ecole Centrale de Paris), and is a graduate of the Ecole Multinationale des Affaires/Multinational Business school (E.S.C Bordeaux & Fachhochschule Münster s ERASMUS programme). m.baudry@idate.org About IDATE and DigiWorld Institute Founded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom, Internet and media markets, thanks to the skills of its teams of specialized analysts. Now, with the support of more than 40 member companies which include many of the digital economy s most influential players the newly rebranded DigiWorld Institute has entered into a new stage of its development, structured around three main areas of activity: IDATE Research, an offer of market intelligence publications IDATE Consulting, time-tested analysis DigiWorld Institute, a think tank on the digital economy. Contact us for further information on our publications Isabel Jimenez P: +33 (0) F: +33 (0) i.jimenez@idate.org Copyright IDATE 2014, CS 94167, Montpellier Cedex 5, France All rights reserved. None of the contents of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form, including electronically, without the prior written permission of IDATE. IDATE, DigiWorld, DigiWorld Institute and DigiWorld Yearbook are the international registered trademarks of IDATE.

3 Contents 1. Executive Summary Methodology & definitions IDATE s general methodology Methodology specific to this report Review of the on-board connectivity market In-flight connectivity on commercial airlines Strong demand for connectivity amongst passengers Service features Nascent LTE Air-to-ground systems creating new competition Connectivity on-board cruise ships A nascent market Uncertain business model What impact can we expect LTE to have? Connectivity on-board trains Upsurge in traffic Typically two levels of service on offer Technical solutions that rely more and more on cellular Steady rollout of LTE-based solutions Satellite operators gearing up to launch new systems ViaSat Satellites planned Spotlight on Exede and Yonder strategies and partnerships Spotlight on services provided with Exede and Yonder Inmarsat Satellites planned Spotlight on Global Xpress strategies and partnerships Spotlight on services in the Global Xpress package O3B Planned satellite constellation Spotlight on strategies and partnerships Spotlight on O3B maritime services Intelsat Satellites planned Spotlight on Epic strategies and partnerships Spotlight on the services provided by the Epic platform Eutelsat Air Access Satellites planned Spotlight on Air Access strategies and partnerships IDATE

4 5. Future issues and challenges New habits will affect demand for bandwidth Ongoing surge in video consumption Operators will need to juggle with the trend of everything for free The shift to hybrid systems Maritime systems have already gone hybrid: XpressLink In-flight systems: various hybrid combinations IDATE

5 Tables & Figures Table 1: Summary of Qualcomm s ATG system proposal Table 2: Frequency bands identified by Alcatel-Lucent in Table 3: Connectivity prices charged by the top cruise lines in Table 4: BATS talking points Table 5: Yonder service plans Table 6: Top nine uses of in-flight connectivity services in Table 7: Main network restrictions affecting mobile video viewing *** Figure 1: American Airlines fleet with in-flight access as of mid Figure 2: Wi-Fi availability on domestic flights in the United States (June 2013) Figure 3: Proportion of US domestic daily flights with Wi Fi access (1 st half of 2013) Figure 4: Proportion of international flights from the US with Wi Fi (1H 2013) Figure 5: Growth in the number of connected commercial aircraft between 2010 and Figure 6: Market share for the top providers of in-flight connectivity on commercial aircraft, 2013* Figure 7: Huawei s ewbb solution Figure 8: Solution tested by Deutsche Telekom with Airbus and Alcatel-Lucent Figure 9: Prototype of a hand-sized LTE reception antenna used in trial Figure 10: Deutsche Telekom s argument in favour of LTE Figure 11: Cost by average subscribers per site ( ) Figure 12: On-board maritime connectivity market, Figure 13: On-board maritime connectivity market, Figure 14: MTN s planned use of Epic (HTMS) series spot beam coverage in Figure 15: Change in the price of an hour of internet access on-board ships (sold in 1-hour increments) Figure 16: Increase in average bandwidth per vessel, Figure 17: The value of offering connectivity on cruise ships Figure 18: Example of a fully cellular maritime route Figure 19: The Icomera X6 solution used by Viking Line Figure 20: Cellular technology latency Figure 21: Examples of maritime telecom links supplied by BATS Wireless Figure 22: A selection of findings from a survey on US railway, Amtrak Figure 23: The connected train Figure 24: The 21Net solution Figure 25: The Huawei solution Figure 26: ViaSat s global coverage via the Ka-band alliance Figure 27: How the Exede system works Figure 28: Exede coverage area Figure 29: ViaSat s Yonder Mobile Broadband service architecture Figure 30: Coverage area of ViaSat s Yonder service Figure 31: Inmarsat s total investment (N.B.: Inmarsat-6 starting in 2016) Figure 32: List of Inmarsat alliances Figure 33: According to Inmarsat, in-flight connectivity is vital to growth Figure 34: Evolution of Inmarsat services for corporate aircraft Figure 35: Recap of Inmarsat alliances Figure 36: Comparison of O3B performances Figure 37: O3B network architecture Figure 38: O3B service coverage (latitude +-45 ) Figure 39: Epic platform coverage Figure 40: Why go hybrid? IDATE

6 List of players examined Alcatel-Lucent Honeywell Huawei Qualcomm ViaSat ZTE Satellite operators Eutelsat Inmarsat Intelsat O3B ViaSat Service providers 21Net AT&T Deutsche Telekom Gogo Icomera LiveTV Nomad Digital OnAir Panasonic Row44 ViaSat Exede Transportation companies American Airlines Amtrak Carnival Cruises Daewoo Shipping JetBlue Royal Caribbean Virgin America Virgin Pendolino IDATE

7 2. Methodology & definitions 2.1. IDATE s general methodology The approach adopted by the IDATE team of analysts and consultants is based on the combination of several methods: Field research and validation of field research data; Conventional tools used in industry and market analysis: segmentation, competition analysis, strategic strengths, modelling and assessment and forecasts, amongst others; Expert analysis of field specialists and their professional network partners. More specifically, IDATE avails of the following human resources and tools: 1/ A multidisciplinary team of full-time consultants, specialised by business sector IDATE analyses are performed primarily by our in-house consultants, and very occasionally by freelance market analysts. This approach capitalises on our pool of expertise through teamwork, and the constant sharing of knowledge, ideas, contacts, viewpoints and key data. Each report is drafted by a team of specialists under the direct supervision of senior consultants who are recognised experts in their field. 2/ Primary and secondary research IDATE reports and databases are based on primary data obtained from first-hand interviews with the sector s decision makers and on secondary data assembled from public sources and external databases. 3/ An integrated information centre sustained by a number of tools and proprietary databases Over the course of 30 years, IDATE has developed proprietary work methods, data structures and databases that trace the history of major developments in the sectors under study. Companies: The IDATE in-house data service tracks the latest news and events concerning the leading telecom, Internet and media industry companies around the globe. Innovative firms and startups are monitored by the market experts in the different Practices. Markets: IDATE databases are developed using rigorous methods to process major economic indicators (GDP, investment, exchange rates and demographics) and relate them to influential sectoral and national factors such as CAPEX and national market dynamics). Technologies: IDATE has a practice-based organisation structure which enables us to track innovation efficiently. IDATE engineers ensure an in-depth understanding of the changing shapes of products and services and of the latest innovations in the marketplace. 4/ Contents of published reports Each IDATE market report details the structures and issues at play in the market under study, the driving forces (technologies, regulation, and consumption) and the players involved. Particular emphasis is placed on market assessments and forecasts, which are developed within the framework of a core scenario. Every market report features a clear and concise presentation illustrated with tables and graphs of key market data and trends. IDATE

8 The drafting process of a market report is based on the following steps: analysis of the information available in the in-house databases, and review of analyses performed in the recent past; based on a preliminary segmentation and assessment of the market, and as part of an validated interview guide, analysts conduct interviews that enable them to validate working hypotheses; a market model is then developed, to enable testing of the hypotheses which impact market development, and the model is validated after a new round of interviews; and, finally, report conclusions are debated within the team responsible for the project and with expert consultants from the various fields involved; proofreading and editing/revision processes, prior to the editing of the final version of the report which is delivered to the client Methodology specific to this report This report was produced by drawing on: IDATE s expertise in on-board connectivity, including reports produced in 2012 and 2013; some dozen interviews with equipment manufacturers, satellite operators, service providers and client companies from the transport industry; participation in trade conferences (Washington 2014, CabSat 2014, Toulouse Space Show ). IDATE