Prediction of Wind Energy with Limited Observed Data

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1 Predcton of Wnd Energy wth Lmted Observed Data Shgeto HIRI, khro HOND Nagasak R&D Center, MITSISHI HEVY INDSTRIES, LTD, Nagasak, 8539 JPN Masaak SHIT Nagasak Shpyard & Machnery Works, MITSISHI HEVY INDSTRIES, LTD, Nagasak, 858 JPN bstract Wnd envronment s the most mportant factor for wnd energy stng. The power producton s much dependent on the wnd envronment of each ste. To estmate the power producton n a partcular locaton, t s desrable that wnd data has been measured at the ste for long term enough to be already averaged over years. However, n many cases, shorter data s only avalable and modfcaton s necessary to exclude some bas n that perod. Especally n sa, where seasonal change of wnd clmate s generally sgnfcant, ths predcton technque s more mportant to get more accuracy. In ths research, predcton technque s dscussed. Wnd data from several meteorologcal statons was analysed. Several estmaton technques were compared wth dfferent length of avalable data. The error n the estmated results was nvestgated. Predcton of long-term wnd clmate may contan large error n the calculaton process. To get better results, the calculaton method should be carefully selected. Further nvestgaton s necessary to mprove the way of estmaton. Wnd energy, Predcton technque, Mean wnd speed, MCP method. Introducton Wnd envronment s the most mportant factor for wnd energy stng. The power producton s much dependent on the wnd envronment of each ste and t often decdes the economc effcency of the project. To estmate the power producton n a partcular locaton, the most desrable stuaton s that longterm measurement of wnd has been done exactly at the ste. However, ths s not common n most cases and shorter record s avalable at most. ecause of the varaton of wnd envronment n space and tme, t s often the problem how to estmate the averaged wnd envronment from such lmted observaton. perod. Especally n sa, where seasonal change of wnd clmate s generally sgnfcant, ths predcton technque becomes mportant to get more accuracy. In ths research, t s supposed that the perod of wnd measurement s less than one year, whch means a worse case. Snce seasonal change s common n wnd envronment, estmaton of annual averaged characterstcs becomes more dffcult n ths case.. Predcton Technque The technque to estmate long-term wnd clmate s often referred as measure-correlate-predct (MCP) method.the basc dea s takng short-term wnd measurement at the target pont and corellatng them wth measurement at a nearby reference pont where the measurement has been taken for longer-perod ). Generally, meteorologcal staton s used as a reference pont. T In a smlple applcaton s to suppose lnear relatonshp between the wnd speed at the target and that at the reference : T = a R + b R Once the relashshp s establshed, the long-term wnd speed at the target can be estmated wth the wnd speed record at the reference. The relaton s assumed to be dependent on the surroudng condton of both locaton,.e. terran, surface roughness, obstacles and so on, and t s constant over years. There are some dffcultes n applyng the above dea n calculaton: how the relaton shp, or the constants a and b, should be decded; the relaton shp be decded dependng on wnd drecton;

2 how the reference pont should be chosen from several canddates. In the follwng, several calculaton way s compared wth sample wnd data. 3. Wnd Measurement Record Wnd measurement records at three meteorogcal statons (MeDS System) n northern Japan were examned.in these statons, wnd speed and drecton s automatcally recorded at every hour. The data was derved from CD-ROM dtrbuton ). Fg. Meteorogcal Statons, and C The arrangement of the statons s shown n Fg.. The dstance between statons s about twenty or thrty klometers. ll the statons are located near the shore, but Staton C s separated from the other two statons, &, by mountans. ll the statons are located near the shorelne, but staton C s faced to the sea n dfferent derecton. In the followng calculaton, Staton was assumed to be the target, where avalable wnd data s lmted for from three to nne months. Staton & C was the reference, where the record was assumed to be avalable for the whole year and more. s t can be easly expected from the map, the wnd envronment at Staton C was rather dfferent from the that of other two statons. For example, the wnd rose at Staton and that of was qute smlar to each other, but the domnant wnd drecton at Staton C was dfferent, as n Fg.. In Fg. 3, the monthly mean wnd speed was compared. The seasonal change of wnd speed was promnent at Staton &, but not so much n Staton C. deg. 7deg. 9deg. 3 8deg. Mean 5 3 : Staton : Staton : Staton C Pont Pont Pont C : Staton : Staton : Staton C 3 Frequency(%) Month Fg. Wnd Rose (For the whole year) Fg. 3 Monthly Mean Wnd Speed

3 . Estmaton of nnual Mean Wnd Speed.. Estmaton wthout Drectonal Consderaton In the fled of wnd energy, the most common and smplest ndcator whch reflects the amount of wnd energy s the annual mean wnd speed at the ste. To estmate the mean wnd speed, two dfferent estmaton models were tred. The frst way was to estmate from the monthly mean wnd speed shown n Fg. 3. The dfference of wnd speed between two statons was expressed by 'wnd speed rato', whch was assumed to be unversally appled to all wnd drectons. The estmaton can be expressed as: year = s s year where year s the annual mean wnd speed and s s the mean wnd speed durng smultaneous observaton. The suffx s the target staton and s the reference staton. Example of estmaton s shown n Fg.. The estmaton target was Staton and the reference was Staton. The perod of smultaneous observaton was set from three months to nne months. The estmated wnd speed s plotted aganst the perod of used smultaneous data. ecause of seasonal dfference, the estmated value, whch s shown as the rectangular sgn ' ', shows wde scatterng dependng on whch part of the year was taken as the smultaneous observaton. Hereafter, the estmaton result s are shown as the standard devaton of error, whch s shown as dash lne n Fg.. Fg. 5 compares the results dependng on the reference pont. The plotted wnd speed s the standard devaton error around the true mean value. s easly expected, the estmaton error became larger when the reference pont was set to Staton C, where the data correlaton wth the target was much worse. \ :Calculated ---:Standard Devaton :From Staton :From Staton C Fg. Estmaton Results (From Staton, No Drectonal Consderaton) Fg. 5 Estmaton from Two Reference Statons (No Drectonal Consderaton).. Estmaton wth Drectonal Consderaton To mprove the estmaton, the wnd characterstcs dependent on wnd drecton was newly ntroduced. s for the drectonal correlaton between two wnd observatons, some models have been suggested 3) ), but t s not clear whch way should be appled to get better estmaton for a partcular target of estmaton. In ths secton, wnd speed rato n the prevous secton was assumed to change wth the wnd drecton. The smultaneous wnd observaton data was dvded nto sectors of wnd drecton at the reference staton, then wnd speed rato was calculated at each sector. The estmaton process was repeated at each observaton as:

4 = s, j s, j where s the wnd speed at tme and s, j s the mean wnd speed durng smultaneous observaton, for the wnd drecton j at the reference staton. The annual mean wnd speed at the target staton can be calculated from the seres of estmated for the whole year. The results are compared wth the prevous result n Fg. for the reference Staton and n Fg. 7 for the reference Staton C. Despte the ntroducton of the dependency on wnd drecton, the dfference of results were not large. In detal, small mprovement can be seen n Fg. 7, where the correlaton between statons was not good, but the opposte n Fg.. These results should be examned further. :Wthout Drectonal Consderaton :Wth Drectonal Consderaton :Wthout Drectonal Consderaton :Wth Drectonal Consderaton Fg. Estmaton from Staton (Wth/Wthout Drectonal Consderaton) Fg. 7 Estmaton from Staton C (Wth/Wthout Drectonal Consderaton) 5. pplcaton to the Power Producton Though mean wnd speed s the convenent ndcator, the common fnal nterest n the fled of wnd energy s the power producton. Snce wnd power producton s dfferent n each type of wnd turbne, a typcal power curve for a horzontal-axs ptch-regulated machne was assumed as n Fg. 8. The power output was normalzed by the rated power and the lne was expressed by polynomal equatons. Due to the non-lnearty between wnd speed and power output, the estmaton error n power producton may dffer from that n mean wnd speed. The relaton between the errors was calculated when the dstrbuton of wnd speed was expressed by Webull dstrbuton wth k =., whch s common approxmaton n wnd energy calculaton. Normalzed Power Output.5 3 Fg. 8 Typcal Power Curve of Wnd Turbne (Normalzed by Rated Power)

5 Fg. 9 shows the relaton of estmaton error between mean wnd speed and power output. The error n power producton was generally greater than that of mean wnd speed, especally when the mean wnd speed was relatvely low, and the error was greater when wnd speed was low and estmaton error was plus (over estmaton). The shape of the power curve, whose slope ncreases wth the wnd speed, can explan ths dfference. Thus estmaton of power producton s easly affected by estmaton error. In the mean wnd estmaton n Secton 3, wnd speed at the target staton can be calculated for each tme and dstrbuton of wnd speed can be formed. It may be necessary to dscuss the theoretcal background of the effect of data scatterng, some results were obtaned for the same data n Secton 3. Frst, wnd speed record at the reference staton or C was converted to that at the target staton, usng the wnd speed rato for all/each wnd drecton. Then power output producton was calculated at each tme and annual power producton was obtaned. The result was normalzed by the true power producton calculated drectly from the true wnd speed at Staton. The results are shown n Fg. for the reference staton and n Fg. for the reference staton C. The estmaton error was greater than that of mean wnd speed. In Fg., where the correlaton of wnd observaton was relatvely poor, the estmaton of power producton was mproved by ntroducng the wnd drecton dependency. Ths suggests estmated mean wnd speed can not explan all of the estmated wnd envronment ncludng the power producton. Estmaton Error n Power Output (%) Mean Wnd Speed m/s Estmaton Error n Wnd Speed (%) Fg. 9 Estmaton Error n Wnd Speed and Power Output (k=.) 5 7 Normalzed Power Output 3 :Wthout Drectonal Consderaton :Wth Drectonal Consderaton Normalzed Power Output 3 :Wthout Drectonal Consderaton :Wth Drectonal Consderaton Fg. Power Estmaton from Staton (Wth/Wthout Drectonal Consderaton) Fg. Power Estmaton from Staton C (Wth/Wthout Drectonal Consderaton)

6 . Concluson Estmaton of wnd envronment was examned n the vew of power producton for wnd energy. The ntroducton of wnd drecton was consdered n sample calculaton. The mprovng effect was not clear for the estmated mean wnd speed, but greater for the estmated power output, especally the correlaton of wnd envronment was relatvely poor. However, predcted long-term wnd clmate may contan error, whch may be large enough to affect the feasblty of the project. Other approach s usng numercal weather predcton models, whch calculates wnd flow at the ste from the daly numercal predecton for weather forecasts. Further nvestgaton combnng these approaches would be necessary to mprove the estmaton at the ste. 7. References ) T. urton et al., "Wnd Energy Handbook", John Wley & Sons, Ltd,. ) Japan Meteorologcal usness Support Center, "nnual MeDS Report (CD-ROM)". 3). Honda et al., "Introducng drectonal characterstcs of wnd n brdge aerodynamc desgn", JSCE, 5th nnual Conference (n Japanese), 999. ) J.L. Walmseley & D.L. agg, " Method of Correlatng Wnd Data etween Two Statons Wth pplcaton to the lberta Ol Sands", tmosphere-ocean, (), ) E.L. Petersen et al. "Wnd Power Meteorology. Part II: Stng and Models", Wnd Energy,, 998.

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