MINISTRY OF ECONOMY POLAND 2006 REPORT ECONOMY

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "MINISTRY OF ECONOMY POLAND 2006 REPORT ECONOMY"

Transcription

1 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY POLAND 2006 REPORT ECONOMY WARSAW 2006

2 Prepared by: Ministry of Economy Analyses and Forecasting Department: Edward Dobrzyński, Michał Drobniak, Andrzej Grabarczyk, Monika Krupa-Leończyk, Michał Listwoń, Michał Mierzwa, Kazimierz Miszczyk, Karol Pęczak, Beata Sitek, Wiesław Stempkowicz, Ryszard Szelągowski, Maria Szkutnicka-Pieniążek, Elżbieta Szułczyńska, Michał Szymczuk, Stanisław Upława, Krzysztof Wójtowicz, Marcin Zelman In co-operation with: Energy Department, Support Instruments Department, Department of Trade Policy, Industry Department, Economic Regulation Department, Oil and Gas Department, Economic Development Department, Department of European Affairs, Tourism Department, Development of Entrepreneurship Competitiveness Department, Office for Diversification of Oil and Gas Supply Supervised by: Grażyna Henclewska Director of the Analyses and Forecasting Department Aneta Piątkowska Deputy Director of the Analyses and Forecasting Department Translation: Letterman Sp. z o.o. Agencja Tłumaczy Zawodowych ul. Kremerowska 15/ Kraków ISSN Printed by: ZWP MGiP. Zam. 1263/05 2

3 CONTENTS SYNTHESIS... 9 PART I POLAND AND THE WORLD ECONOMY Principal trends in the world economy in Economic growth United States European Union Japan Developing countries Prices of energy commodities Trade turnover Poland in the OECD 10 years of membership Poland in the forum of OECD OECD reviews Activity in selected areas European Union Stocktaking of the Polish accession to the EU Macroeconomic perspective Absorption of the EU funds Lisbon Strategy Internal Market Harmonisation of the economic legislation Free movement of goods Free movement of services Free movement of persons recognition of qualifications

4 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY Adjustments in the field of energy and industrial policies Internal market and Poland s economic relations with third countries The future of the internal market Competitiveness of the Polish Economy International Competitiveness Rankings Poland as Compared with the EU Member States PART II POLAND S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN 2005 (AND IN THE 1 ST HALF OF 2006) Gross Domestic Product GDP and growth drivers Domestic demand Impact of investment on GDP dynamics Impact of exports on GDP dynamics Role of sectors in GDP formation Gross Domestic Product per capita in Poland and selected countries Labour market Employed Persons Unemployment and unemployment rate Structural mismatch on the labour market Labour market structure according to age Impact of education on the size of unemployment Territorial differentiation of the labour market Gender differentiation of the labour market Salaries and labour productivity

5 POLSKA 2006 RAPORT O STANIE GOSPODARKI 7. Households and consumption Income of households Consumption and Savings Durable goods in households Inequalities of income Inflation and monetary policy Prices Consumer prices Prices of industrial production and construction/assembly production Monetary Policy Conditions for monetary policy implementation The monetary policy implementation in Instruments of monetary policy implementation The public finances and fiscal policy State Budget The public finances Meeting the Treaty of Maastricht criteria Industry Dynamics and structure of industrial output Industrial output dynamics Industrial output structure by sections and divisions Industrial output in the first months of Essential problems of industry. Developments in selected sectors Hard coal mining Shipbuilding Light industry Chemical industry REACH Electronic industry

6 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY 11. Poland s energy security Situation in fuel/energy market The security of the Polish power system Situation in the power sector in Renewable energy sources Efficiency of energy use in the economy Security of oil and gas sectors Identifying threats Diversification of supplies of energy carriers Construction Gross value added and production of construction industry Macroeconomic factors behind the dynamics and production volume of the construction sector Dynamics and structure of construction and assembly production Housing General problems of the housing industry Housing in Employment Salaries and labour productivity Number of units in the construction industry Financial standing Assessment of the construction industry performance Domestic trade Number and structure of businesses Employment. Number of persons employed Salaries and labour productivity Retail and wholesale sales Economic and financial standing General problems of domestic trade

7 POLSKA 2006 RAPORT O STANIE GOSPODARKI 14. Foreign trade Trends in Polish Foreign Trade in Geographical structure of foreign trade turnover in Changes in Commodity Structure of Foreign Trade Turnover Foreign trade in the 1st half of Tourism Situation in tourism in Arrivals to Poland Tourist arrivals Foreign expenditures in Poland Tourism of the Polish residents Domestic tourism of the Polish residents Polish residents travels abroad Tourist accommodation in Poland General tourism issues Enterprises Ownership structure and ownership transition in State-owned companies Ownership transition in State-owned companies Impact of structural transitions on the development of the Polish economy Changes in the participation of the ownership sectors in generating gross added value. The role of the private sector in economic growth Development of small enterprises Changes in economic sectors and sections of the economy Financial standing Revenues and costs of obtaining revenues Prime Costs Financial result

8 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY Profitability and financial liquidity indicators Debt Financial standing in the first half of Investment outlays Inflow of FDI to Poland The role and importance of companies with foreign capital FDI influx volume FDI influx by geographical location FDI influx by sector Innovation of Polish enterprises and their environment Entrepreneurship and barriers to enterprise development Economic regulations Barriers to enterprise development Enterprise support instruments Instrument supporting innovation of enterprises Financial instruments for supporting exports (including simplification of customs and tax procedures for exporters) Financial support for investments Special Economic Zones State aid Instruments for developing a network of institutions in the business environment

9 SYNTHESIS The high rate of economic growth at the level of at least 5% per year is the foundation for Poland s socio-economic growth in the years to come. The factors which enable the economic growth will be: investments domestic, supported by structural funds and Cohesion Fund and direct foreign investment, as well as exports. The condition of the Polish economy in 2005 should be generally assessed as good. In 2006 macroeconomic indicators also look favourable. After an unusally high growth of GDP in the 1 st quarter of 2004, which was earlier anticipated and was directly connected with Poland s accession to the EU, followed a few quarters in which the growth of GDP was lower and constantly decreasing. On the other hand, currently (mid-2006) was the fifth successive quarter of accelerated growth of GDP may be stated. In the first half of 2006, an economic growth of 5.4 % was noted, much higher than a year before. What is most important, this trend may be expected to continue in future. The Analyses and Forecasting Department of the Ministry of Economy estimates that an economic growth of above 5% is expected to be maintained throughout 2006 and in Domestic demand is becoming the major growth factor, and it should be stressed that this also includes investments. At the same time it should be noted that the contribution of net exports to the growth of GDP continues to be positive. The intensification of investment processes in the second half of the year will have an impact on the dynamism of import, particularly in relation to investment. Currently the implementation of the current economic policy is not seriously endangered. The strengthening of macroeconomic foundations is observed in 2006, including: a relatively high rate of economic growth, higher dynamics of outlays on investment projects, 9

10 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY a much higher growth of industrial output than in the previous year, the growing construction and assembly production, good results of commercial enterprises, a high growth of exports, with a reduced growth of imports, significantly reduced current account deficit in the balance of payments, relatively low inflation pressures, however still growing, a lower unemployment rate, rise in employment level a relatively stable and strong Polish zloty. The level of development of the Polish economy is still far from being satisfactory. Considering GDP per capita, Poland is ranked among the lowest-rated countries of the EU-25, reaching only ca. 50% of the EU average. The Polish economy is characterised by a relatively low competitiveness ad innovativeness and is still too slow in implementing structural reforms. EXTERNALITIES. The economic situation of Poland is significantly influenced by the situation in the global economy, and, in particular, the economic situation of our most important trade partners, i.e. EU countries. This results from the fact that the Polish economy is becoming increasingly connected with the economies of those states. Over 71% of Polish foreign trade is with EU countries, including export to the EU countries which accounts for 78% of the total Polish export, while the import amounts to 66% of the total. The economic boom in those countries is not without impact on the export potential of the Polish economy, while economic stagnation is an important limiting factor. In addition to the steadily growing exchange of commodities, we are increasingly tied with those countries with growing capital links. Around 70% of foreign direct investment in Poland originate from the EU-15 countries. Many big companies from the EU operate in Poland, so the overall economic situation in Europe influ- 10

11 POLSKA 2006 RAPORT O STANIE GOSPODARKI ences their financial condition. Most of the products manufactured by such firms are exported, especially to EU countries. The 2005 results show that, despite persistent high petrol prices, the global economy developed rapidly. Among the countries which showed the highest rate of economic development and stimulating the global economic situation were the United States (although in this case the rate of growth slightly slowed down), China, India, Japan and other countries of South-Eastern Asia. On the other hand, the economy of the EU countries developed at a slower pace as compared to 2004, and a little slower than expected. The European Committee estimates that in 2006 the economy of the EU-25 countries will develop more dynamically. The highest growth is observed among new EU members states. COMPETITIVENESS OF THE POLISH ECONOMY. In the publications of international rankings the competitiveness of the Polish economy is ranked relatively low, no matter what criteria are adopted. In the three most important reports devoted to competitiveness Poland was ranked somewhere in the middle, and generally lagged behind other Central and Eastern European states. Poland is ranked significantly lower than the current condition of Polish enterprises and their activity in the single European market might suggest. This might be because the assessment of competitiveness recognises barriers which do not directly influence the current situation but, on a longer term, affect the condition of the economy and businesses. Also, when compared with EU countries in terms of structural socio-economic indicators, Poland, as a rule, attains results far below the EU average. Among the factors weakening the country s competitive position, the following should be indicated: low standards of public institutions and infrastructure, the unstable system of public finance, as well as high unemployment and low employment rates. Existing administrative barriers for entrepreneurs are also mentioned. Numerous and frequently changed procedures connected with conducting business contribute to the increased costs of business operations. 11

12 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY Among the strengths of the Polish economy are good macroeconomic results (a relatively high economic growth, a reduced rate of inflation), low costs of labour in industry, fast development of exports and the fact that Poland is attractive for foreign investors. ECONOMIC GROWTH. In 2004, a high economic growth was noted (5.3%), resulting from both the entry of the Polish economy in a new phase of the economic cycle, and the influence of a certain shock for the Polish economy connected with the accession to the EU in May This event has an impact on the results of 2004 and 2005 ( base effect ). In 2005 the rate of GDP growth was lower than a year before (3.4%). On the other hand, the rate of the GDP growth in 2005 increased in each quarter. The total consumption had the most important impact on the economic growth on the demand side. The rate of increase in gross outlays on fixed assets was higher than the rate of GDP growth. An equally high dynamics of exports of goods and services (higher than the import dynamism) was translated into a positive input of the net export to the growth of GDP. In 2005, domestic demand increased by 2.2%, while in 2004 it was 6.0%. An increase in gross fixed capital formation in 2005 was similar to the figure noted in the previous year (6.5%), while the increase in stock was much lower. The dynamics of investments was influenced by the EU structural funds. The rate of growth of private consumption in 2005 was lower than in the previous year. An improvement of the situation in the labour market contributed to increased revenues from hired labour, while social benefits remained at the level similar to Significant sources of financing the increase in consumption in 2005 were the increased income from private business activity and revenues from property ownership. An important role in the increase of income was due to the payments to farmers under the Common Agricultural Policy in relation with Poland s accession to the European Union. 12

13 POLSKA 2006 RAPORT O STANIE GOSPODARKI The year 2005 was the fourth year in succession in which both export and import increased. Notwithstanding the strengthening of the exchange rate, the dynamism of exports was higher than the import dynamics, which resulted in a positive input by the net export to the real growth of GDP, after a negative input of An internal imbalance measured in the drop in foreign savings in relation to GDP, from 4.3% in 2004 to 1.5% in 2005, was limited. To a large extent this was a result of an improved balance in the foreign exchange of commodities. A drop in the rate of foreign savings was accompanied by an increased ratio of savings in the national economy to GDP, from 15.8% in 2004 to 17.6% in A rise in the gross value added in 2005 was 3.2% and was primarily the effect of the boom in market services and industry. A decisive factor behind growth in industrial production was the situation in the processing industry, the dynamics of which was connected with growing exports and the gradually restored domestic demand. GDP generated in 2005 was at the level of billion PLN (PLN 25.7 thousand per capita). In the context of a relatively high economic growth in Poland, growing disparities between different Polish regions in the second half of the 1990s are noteworthy. In 1995 the distribution of a per capita GDP in the richest and the most disadvantaged voivodships 1 was 1.67, and in 2003, this grew to INVESTMENTS. Investments play a key role in the economic growth and reflect the condition of the economy and its development perspectives. After a dynamic growth of investment outlays, particularly noticeable in the mid-1990s, a slump could clearly be seen in It was chiefly connected with the poor business outlook and the worsening of the financial condition of enterprises. Since 2003, outlays on investment have been growing, however to an extent which is not sufficient to satisfy the needs of modernisation of the Polish economy. In 2005 investment outlays were higher by 6.6% than in the 1 Taking into account of the new administrative division of the country after the administrative reform of

14 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY previous year. The highest growth of investment outlays was noted in financial intermediation, mining and construction. As compared to the previous year, both the number of newly opened investment projects and their cost-estimate value grew. The main source of financing investment are own resources of enterprises. Entrepreneurs are reluctant to make use of bank loans, though these are relatively easily available, their interest rate is steadily falling and the costs of obtaining credit decrease. At the same time it should be stressed that the value of investments does not reflect the potential capacity of entrepreneurs in this respect, as enterprises have free financial resources (an exceptionally favourable financial and economic situation in 2004 and a good situation in 2005 only translated into higher liquidity indicators and a higher value of deposits). Investors are cautious in their ventures and wait for the stabilisation of economic growth. They also point out other problems which hamper their investment (the absence of spatial development plans, inadequate development of the infrastructure, unregulated ownership issues, complicated procedures to acquire EU funds). The level and dynamism of the inflow of direct foreign investment to Poland was highly differentiated in recent years. In the second half of the 1990s, the value of investments in Poland by foreign entities grew steadily form 3.7 billion USD in 1995 to 9,3 billion USD in After a few less favourable years, an increased inflow of foreign investment to Poland was observed in ( 12.9 billion USD, in 2004; 7.7 billion USD in 2005). It should also be noted that the amount of resources expended to the purchase of stocks and shares in privatised enterprises steadily decreases, whilst the value of greenfield investments increases. In the geographic structure of the inflow of FDI to Poland, enterprises from EU countries tend to be of primary importance. The largest investments in Poland were by Dutch, German and French firms. The highest FDI were in the manufacturing industry (the manufacture of transport equipment, food products, beverages and tobacco products) and in financial intermediation, trade and repairs. 14

15 POLSKA 2006 RAPORT O STANIE GOSPODARKI INDUSTRY. In , the Polish economy was characterised by low growth in industrial output. Later the situation significantly improved. In 2003, the industrial output rose by 8.4%, whilst in 2004 by 12.6%. The factor influencing the production dynamics was increased external and domestic demand. In 2005 the rate of the production growth dropped to 3.8%. Production grew in all the three sections of industry. In 2005 production in 14 out of 21 sections of manufacturing industry increased, as compared to 2004; the highest growth was noted in the manufacture of medical instruments and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment. As regards mining and quarrying, production dropped in the mining of coal and lignite, which resulted from a lower demand by the smelting industry for coke. A favourable situation was in copper mining, as a result of increased demand for this raw material. In industrial divisions and groups considered as the carriers of technological progress industry, growth in production in 2005 amounted to 6.4% and was much lower than the growth reached in 2003 and However, the proportion of these products in the value of overall industrial output, similarly to 2004, 15.9%. In subsequent years the public sector production dropped, whilst a dynamic rise was seen in the private sector production. As a result, a gradual increase in the share of private sector production in the total production sold was observed. In 2005 this proportion was 83.1% in current prices, as compared with 71.3% in CONSTRUCTION. Following the continuing economic boom in 2005, a rise in construction and assembly production was noted after a few years of downturn in the construction sector. A 5.0% growth was the result of growing sales in both repair and investment projects. The process of revival in the construction sector is evidenced by a very dynamic growth of construction and assembly production by entrepreneurs dealing with side preparation. 15

16 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY In 2005 over 114 thousand housing units were completed, i.e. 5.5% more than in An increase in the number of housing units completed was noted only as regards communal housing and apartments for sale or to let. Individual investors completed 2.4% more apartments than in DOMESTIC TRADE. The value of retail sales by commercial and non-commercial businesses employing more than 9 persons employed each increased by 1.5% as compared with The highest growth was noted in the following sections: furniture, RTV and household equipment, pharmaceutical products, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment. The value of wholesale sales of commercial enterprises increased by 5.2% in current prices as compared with 13.4% in The highest growth of sales was registered in tobacco products, machines and equipment, as well as non-agricultural semi-finished products and byproducts. The main reason of lower growth in commercial products sold than in 2004 was the effect of a high statistical base after Poland s accession to the European Union a significant rise of demand was reported, both foreign and domestic. As a result the sales of goods and products in 2004 reached a very high level. FOREIGN TRADE. The revival in trade exchange observed in the recent years continued also in The value of trade turnover in exports increased by 21.1% in USD and by 19.6% in EUR, while in imports, by 15.2% and 13.8% respectively. Following the rise of foreign currency prices (by ca. 12% in USD and by ca. 8% in EUR), the rate of volume growth was lower than the rate of growth of the value of the turnover, and amounted to 10.7% for export and 4.5% for import. A higher rate of growth in exports over imports causes a gradual reduction of a negative commodity turnover account balance and a 2 Fixed prices 16

17 POLSKA 2006 RAPORT O STANIE GOSPODARKI lower current account deficit. During the recent 5 years the commodities turnover deficit fell from USD 12.3 billion to USD 2.7 billion The year 2005 brought changes in the geographic structure of commodities turnover. The most important change was a decrease in the developed countries share in the overall turnover (their share dropped by 1.6 p.p. in export and by 2.6 p.p. in import). At the same time the deficit in the trade exchange with other countries which in 2004 amounted to EUR 3.3 billion, was transformed into a surplus of over EUR 0.6 billion, notwithstanding the weak economic situation in Germany Poland s main trade partner. Among other markets, trade with China and Russia also declined. As a result of higher imports from the above countries the total trade exchange deficit with these countries accounted for over 80% of the total deficit in the Polish foreign commodity exchange in The most extensive changes in the structure of commodities in the foreign trade turnover were related with the significant improvement in the exchange balance in the group of electrical machinery production, and in particular in the sector of manufacture of means of transportation, in which the value of exports increased by nearly 2 EUR billion, while the import decreased by EUR 1 billion. Another group of commodities in which a significant improvement in the turnover balance was noted in 2005 were agricultural; and food products. As regards products of mineral origin, unfavourable price relations resulted in more than a four times higher rate of growth of imports (mainly oil and gas), as compared with exports (mainly coal and coke). The high deficit, which persisted in this group of commodities, became higher than before. LABOUR MARKET. The year 2005 was the second year in which an improvement of the labour market situation was noted. The average employment in the sector of enterprises increased by 1.9% was compared with 2004 and amounted to 4,773 thousand. The growth in employment combined with the growing migration to seek jobs in other EU countries contributed to the lower unemployment rate. At the 17

18 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY end of 2005 it was 17.6% (1.4 percentage point less than in the previous year). At the same time, still over 2.7 million people remained unemployed. The average monthly gross salary in the economy was PLN in 2005, which means that real salary increased by 2.6%. The problem of the Polish labour market is a significant proportion of individuals in the productive age group who neither work nor seek jobs. This refers mainly to young people and persons aged 45 or more. At present Poland is a country with the lowest employment rate among the EU countries. In 2005 the rate of employment was 45,2% (0.9 p.p. more than in the previous year). In 2005, for the first time from 1992, an increase of the economic activity rate was noted, reaching the level of 54.9%. The large extent of the grey zone may be indicated as being one of other labour market problems in Poland, which is, among other aspects, a result of the high non-wages costs of labour. The mobility of workers is also low, while their qualifications often do not meet labour market needs, which constitutes the main barrier to changes to the sectoral structure of the Polish economy. Moreover, In addition, despite visible improvement (a lower number of accidents at work and of the average number of sick leaves caused by such accidents per person employed), work quality and safety are still far from satisfactory. PRICES. Among priority tasks of the macroeconomic policy in Poland in the recent dozen years or so, was to lower inflation. In 1999 a one-digit average annual level of inflation was reached for the first time (7.3%). The declining trend continued in the years that followed, so in 2003 the average annual increase in prices of consumption goods and services amounted to 0.8%. As a result of Poland s accession to the European Union, in relation with the increasing domestic demand, higher dynamics in the export of food articles to EU countries and higher prices of raw materials in global markets, the rate of growth of consumption prices increased by 3.5%. 18

19 POLSKA 2006 RAPORT O STANIE GOSPODARKI In 2005 the Union effect gradually faded out and inflation dropped again to an average annual level of 2.1% and 0.7% from December 2004 to December Apart from the rapidly receding pro-inflationary factors connected with Poland s accession to the European Union, lower growth in prices was influenced by: a lower than expected growth of prices for agricultural products, appreciation of the Polish zloty and reduced growth of prices of imported raw materials, a lower domestic demand and the results of a tighter monetary policy a few quarters before that In the second half of the year, a significant influence on the CPI level of inflation was a rise in controlled prices by 3.4%. Average annual producer prices in industry grew in 2005 at much lower rate than in the previous year (0.7% as compared with 7.0%). A lower rate of growth concerned chiefly prices in the mining and quarrying section. The level of prices in manufacturing decreased by 0.3%. The drop in prices was noted in 15 out of 21 sections of the manufacturing industry, the highest in RTV equipment. The average annual prices in construction and assembly production increased by 3.1% in MONETARY POLICY. The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) based its monetary policy on direct inflationary target strategy in In the Monetary Policy Strategy beyond 2003, the MPC adopted permanent inflation target set at 2.5% with a symmetrical tolerance range for deviations of +/- 1 p. p. In relation with a decreasing inflation level in 2005, in April MPC changed its restrictive approach in the monetary policy to neutral, while in June it adopted a more liberal approach. In March a series of five reductions of interest rates began (in total by 2 p.p.). In 2006 two successive reductions of interest rates took place, at 0.25 p.p. each. As a result, the reference rate fell from 4.5% to 4.0%. PUBLIC FINANCES. In the longer term maintaining a high rate of economic growth in Poland will only be possible only by a thorough 19

20 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY reform of public finances. The unfavourable situation in the public finance sectors manifests itself in the form of a flawed structure of expenses and persistent deficit, which even in the period of economic pick-up reached 3% of GDP, while during the economic downturn reached nearly 6% GDP. A deficit of public finance which persists for a long time, causes the rise in public debt and in the costs of debt servicing and has adverse effects on the economic situation and growth perspectives. Without maintaining a high rate of economic growth in the longer term it will not be possible to solve the issue of low employment, to limit the scope of social exclusion and poverty and to bridge the development gap between our country and other EU states. The current structure of budgetary expenses implies a limited freedom of the government in deciding about the amount of the state budget deficit. In the proportion of expenses determined by parliamentary Acts or earlier adopted obligations in overall budgetary expenses grew steadily from a level of 53.7% to 72.5%, except for In 2005, the state budget receipts totalled at PLN 179,8 billion and exceeded the planned amount by 2.9%. Expenditures from the state budget amounted to PLN billion and were executed at the level of 99.3%. As a result of the higher level of the execution of receipts and lower level of expenditures as compared with the amount planned, the real budget deficit was lower than planned by PLN 6.6 billion (19.0%) and amounted to PLN 28.4 billion. OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY In the beginning of the process of transition, the majority of Polish enterprises were state-owned. The growing role of the private sector in the 1990s occurred as a result of the rapid development of the sector of small and medium-sized enterprises and the privatisation of state-owned medium-sized enterprises. As a result, in the number of business entities almost doubled, from 1.9 million to 3.6 million, of which private businesses accounted for 96.2% in An increased role of the private sector was one of the factors which made it possi- 20

POLAND 2009 REPORT ECONOMY

POLAND 2009 REPORT ECONOMY MINISTRY OF ECONOMY POLAND 2009 REPORT ECONOMY WARSAW 2009 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY Prepared by: Ministry of Economy Analyses and Forecasting Department Agnieszka Albrecht, Michał Drobniak, Andrzej Grabarczyk,

More information

Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on the 2015 National Reform Programme of Portugal

Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on the 2015 National Reform Programme of Portugal EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 13.5.2015 COM(2015) 271 final Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2015 National Reform Programme of Portugal and delivering a Council opinion on the 2015 Stability

More information

POLAND 2004. REPORT ECONOMY MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND LABOUR POLAND 2004 RAPORT ECONOMY

POLAND 2004. REPORT ECONOMY MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND LABOUR POLAND 2004 RAPORT ECONOMY MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND LABOUR POLAND 2004 RAPORT ECONOMY WARSAW 2004 1 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND LABOUR Prepared by: Ministry of Economy and Labour Economic Analyses and Forecasts Department: Anna Baranowska,

More information

Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on the 2015 National Reform Programme of Slovenia

Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on the 2015 National Reform Programme of Slovenia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 13.5.2015 COM(2015) 273 final Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2015 National Reform Programme of Slovenia and delivering a Council opinion on the 2015 Stability

More information

Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments. (April 2015)

Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments. (April 2015) Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments (April 2015) Development of the industrial sector in 2014 After two years of recession, industrial production returned to growth in 2014.

More information

The Macroeconomic Situation and Monetary Policy in Russia. Ladies and Gentlemen,

The Macroeconomic Situation and Monetary Policy in Russia. Ladies and Gentlemen, The Money and Banking Conference Monetary Policy under Uncertainty Dr. Sergey Ignatiev Chairman of the Bank of Russia (The 4 th of June 2007, Central Bank of Argentina, Buenos Aires) The Macroeconomic

More information

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

The EMU and the debt crisis

The EMU and the debt crisis The EMU and the debt crisis MONETARY POLICY REPORT FEBRUARY 212 43 The debt crisis in Europe is not only of concern to the individual debt-ridden countries; it has also developed into a crisis for the

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

Economic projections

Economic projections Economic projections 2016-2019 December 2016 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2016-2019 Economic activity in Malta is expected to remain robust over the projection horizon, supported

More information

State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background

State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background Public Debt Department State budget borrowing requirements financing plan and its background September 2014 THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION Monthly issuance calendar... 2 MoF comment... 8 Rating agencies

More information

Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on Poland s 2014 national reform programme

Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on Poland s 2014 national reform programme EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 2.6.2014 COM(2014) 422 final Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on Poland s 2014 national reform programme and delivering a Council opinion on Poland s 2014 convergence

More information

We also assign a D- bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to the bank. The rationale for this rating mirrors that for the BCA.

We also assign a D- bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to the bank. The rationale for this rating mirrors that for the BCA. Moody s Investors Service Ltd CREDIT OPINION MORTGAGE AND LAND BANK OF LATVIA Summary Rating Rationale In accordance with Moody s rating methodology for government-related issuers (GRIs), we assign A2/Prime-1

More information

Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 01/94 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 19, 2001 International Monetary Fund 700 19 th Street, NW Washington, D. C. 20431 USA IMF Concludes 2001 Article IV Consultation

More information

CURRENT ACCOUNT: THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS

CURRENT ACCOUNT: THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS CURRENT ACCOUNT: THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS Prepared by Armenuhi Burnazyan and Arevik Aleksanyan In our project we tried to analyze Current Account (CA) balance trends for Armenia, Georgia and

More information

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast

More information

Mario Draghi: Europe and the euro a family affair

Mario Draghi: Europe and the euro a family affair Mario Draghi: Europe and the euro a family affair Keynote speech by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, at the conference Europe and the euro a family affair, organised by the Bundesverband

More information

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND FOREIGN DEBT

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND FOREIGN DEBT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND FOREIGN DEBT V 1. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS In 1997, the external current account deficit was 8.1 billion krónur, corresponding to 1. percent of GDP. It declined from 8.9 b.kr., or 1.8

More information

Contents. General overview Key Economic figures Main Economic trends Financial services sector Economic Outlook...

Contents. General overview Key Economic figures Main Economic trends Financial services sector Economic Outlook... Contents General overview... 3 Key Economic figures... 5 Main Economic trends... 6 Financial services sector... 11 Economic Outlook... 15 General overview The financial and economic crisis called for the

More information

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6 South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

More information

Fewer net errors and omissions, that is a new format of the balance of payments

Fewer net errors and omissions, that is a new format of the balance of payments Fewer net errors and omissions, that is a new format of the balance of payments The size of net errors and omissions in the balance of payments decreased from 4.4% to 2.3% of GDP. This resulted from data

More information

Economic Commentaries

Economic Commentaries n Economic Commentaries Sweden has had a substantial surplus on its current account, and thereby also a corresponding financial surplus, for a long time. Nevertheless, Sweden's international wealth has

More information

9210/16 ADB/SBC/mz 1 DG B 3A - DG G 1A

9210/16 ADB/SBC/mz 1 DG B 3A - DG G 1A Council of the European Union Brussels, 13 June 2016 (OR. en) 9210/16 NOTE From: To: No. Cion doc.: General Secretariat of the Council ECOFIN 455 UEM 202 SOC 319 EMPL 216 COMPET 289 V 335 EDUC 190 RECH

More information

FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN

FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN VOLUME 38 May 1952 NUMBER 5 Business expenditures for new plant and equipment and for inventory reached a new record level in 1951 together, they exceeded the previous year's total

More information

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy

More information

Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts

Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia has had a quick recovery from the recent recession and its economy is in better shape than before the crisis. It is now much leaner and significantly

More information

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CORPORATE TAX RATE REDUCTIONS

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CORPORATE TAX RATE REDUCTIONS THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CORPORATE TAX RATE REDUCTIONS Leadership makes the difference January 211 The Economic Impact of Corporate Tax Rate Reductions January 211 Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters Author:

More information

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, at the Capital markets seminar, hosted by Terra-Gruppen AS, Gardermoen,

More information

Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION. on the updated convergence programme of the Czech Republic, 2009-2012

Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION. on the updated convergence programme of the Czech Republic, 2009-2012 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, SEC(2010) 344 Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION on the updated convergence programme of the Czech Republic, 2009-2012 EN EN EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM 1. GENERAL BACKGROUND

More information

THE COUNTRY STRATEGY OF THE INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT BANK for the Russian Federation

THE COUNTRY STRATEGY OF THE INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT BANK for the Russian Federation THE COUNTRY STRATEGY OF THE INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT BANK for the Russian Federation (Main provisions) This country strategy for 2013-2015 has been drawn up as an elaboration of the Development Strategy

More information

ASSESSMENT OF THE BILL ON THE 2015 BUDGET OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA. Executive Summary

ASSESSMENT OF THE BILL ON THE 2015 BUDGET OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA. Executive Summary Republic of Serbia FISCAL COUNCIL ASSESSMENT OF THE BILL ON THE 2015 BUDGET OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA Executive Summary The 2015 Budget Bill envisages a deficit at the central government level in the amount

More information

Latvia during the global economic and financial crisis

Latvia during the global economic and financial crisis Latvia during the global economic and financial crisis Second Japan Baltic Seminar 1 December 2009, Tokyo 1 Different experience behind, challenges ahead 15 10 5 Transition -56% in 1991-1993 GDP 1991-2012

More information

New Monetary Policy Challenges

New Monetary Policy Challenges New Monetary Policy Challenges 63 Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 2013, 1, pp. 63-67 Received: 5 December 2012; accepted: 4 January 2013 UDC: 336.74 Alexey V. Ulyukaev * New Monetary Policy

More information

BORROWING AND DEBT MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA FOR 2015 2017 CHAPTER I GENERAL PROVISIONS

BORROWING AND DEBT MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA FOR 2015 2017 CHAPTER I GENERAL PROVISIONS APPROVED BY Government of the Republic of Lithuania Resolution No 1437 of 15 December 2014 BORROWING AND DEBT MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA FOR 2015 2017 CHAPTER

More information

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA PUBLIC BANK BERHAD ECONOMICS DIVISION MENARA PUBLIC BANK 146 JALAN AMPANG 50450 KUALA LUMPUR TEL : 03 2176 6000/666 FAX : 03 2163 9929 Public Bank Economic Review is published bi monthly by Economics Division,

More information

Naturally, these difficult external conditions have affected the Mexican economy. I would stress in particular three developments in this regard:

Naturally, these difficult external conditions have affected the Mexican economy. I would stress in particular three developments in this regard: REMARKS BY MR. JAVIER GUZMÁN CALAFELL, DEPUTY GOVERNOR AT THE BANCO DE MÉXICO, ON THE MEXICAN ECONOMY IN AN ADVERSE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT: CHALLENGES AND POLICY RESPONSE, SANTANDER MEXICO DAY 2016, Mexico

More information

Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Trends in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows This article briefly examines recent trends in foreign direct investment in Australia, both in the context of the longer-term perspective and relative to the

More information

ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET

ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET in Canada Projections to 2025 JUNE 2015 ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET in Canada Projections to 2025 Prepared by: MESSAGE FROM THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Dear colleagues: Engineers

More information

6 Quality of Public Finances Revenues and Expenditures

6 Quality of Public Finances Revenues and Expenditures 6 Quality of Public Finances Revenues and Expenditures 6.1 The Government s Strategy In 2003, the Czech government launched a public finance reform focusing on fiscal consolidation and elimination of the

More information

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

Evolution of informal employment in the Dominican Republic

Evolution of informal employment in the Dominican Republic NOTES O N FORMALIZATION Evolution of informal employment in the Dominican Republic According to official estimates, between 2005 and 2010, informal employment fell from 58,6% to 47,9% as a proportion of

More information

An Opinion from. the EFTA Consultative Committee. The Impact of the Common Currency on. European Economies, Enterprises and Employees

An Opinion from. the EFTA Consultative Committee. The Impact of the Common Currency on. European Economies, Enterprises and Employees EUROPEAN FREE TRADE ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION EUROPEENNE DE LIBRE-ECHANGE CSC 9/98 21 October 1998 Brussels An Opinion from the EFTA Consultative Committee The Impact of the Common Currency on European Economies,

More information

Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations

Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations Key points 1. The Japanese economy and IS balance trends From a macroeconomic perspective, the current account balance weighs the Japanese economy

More information

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

More information

The Public Finance Sector DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY. In the years 2006-2008

The Public Finance Sector DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY. In the years 2006-2008 The Public Finance Sector DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY In the years 2006-2008 Ministry of Finance Warsaw, September 2005 The Public Finance Sector DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY in the years 2006-08 I. INTRODUCTION

More information

Programa Nacional de Reformas de España 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Programa Nacional de Reformas de España 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the last four years, the Spanish Government has put in place an ambitious reform agenda that has transformed the Spanish economy. This agenda has been built over three pillars: fiscal

More information

COUNCIL OPINION on the updated stability programme of Belgium, 2009-2012

COUNCIL OPINION on the updated stability programme of Belgium, 2009-2012 2.6.2010 Official Journal of the European Union C 143/1 I (Resolutions, recommendations and opinions) OPINIONS COUNCIL COUNCIL OPINION on the updated stability programme of Belgium, 2009-2012 (2010/C 143/01)

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

Estonia 1.2. Economic Performance and Market Reforms. General developments

Estonia 1.2. Economic Performance and Market Reforms. General developments Estonia 1.2. Economic Performance and Market Reforms General developments Estonia is one of the most successful emerging market economies in Central and Eastern Europe. The GDP has grown by an average

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

COMMISSION OPINION. of XXX. on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY

COMMISSION OPINION. of XXX. on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, XXX [ ](2013) XXX draft COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY EN EN COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

More information

It is with great pleasure that I address you here today. I would like to. thank Luis for providing this opportunity. The subject that I will discuss

It is with great pleasure that I address you here today. I would like to. thank Luis for providing this opportunity. The subject that I will discuss Ladies and gentlemen, It is with great pleasure that I address you here today. I would like to thank Luis for providing this opportunity. The subject that I will discuss today, is recovery and reform.

More information

An outlook on the Spanish economy Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London

An outlook on the Spanish economy Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London 09.02.2016 An outlook on the Spanish economy Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London Luis M. Linde Governor I would like to thank OMFIF and Mr. David Marsh for the invitation

More information

Monetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management

Monetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management Monetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management People s Bank of China Abstract This paper touches on the interaction between monetary policy, fiscal policy and public debt management. The first

More information

ENCOURAGING A DYNAMIC LIFE INSURANCE INDUSTRY: ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND POLICY ISSUES

ENCOURAGING A DYNAMIC LIFE INSURANCE INDUSTRY: ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND POLICY ISSUES ENCOURAGING A DYNAMIC LIFE INSURANCE INDUSTRY: ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND POLICY ISSUES by Gerry Dickinson Professor and Director, Centre for Insurance & Investment Studies, City University Business School,

More information

The Business Credit Index

The Business Credit Index The Business Credit Index April 8 Published by the Credit Management Research Centre, Leeds University Business School April 8 1 April 8 THE BUSINESS CREDIT INDEX During the last ten years the Credit Management

More information

Annual Report 2007 COMMERCIAL FINANCE WWW.INGCOMFIN.PL

Annual Report 2007 COMMERCIAL FINANCE WWW.INGCOMFIN.PL 2007 Annual Report 2007 COMMERCIAL FINANCE WWW.INGCOMFIN.PL It is with pleasure that I present to you the Annual Report of 2007 which describes the activity of ING Commercial Finance Polska S.A. Last year

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2016) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 6 May, 2016 Outline 1. Assumptions of the forecast 2. The new macroeconomic forecast 3. Comparison with the previous

More information

Q1 / 2015: INTERIM REPORT WITHIN THE FIRST HALF-YEAR OF 2015. Berentzen-Gruppe Aktiengesellschaft Haselünne / Germany

Q1 / 2015: INTERIM REPORT WITHIN THE FIRST HALF-YEAR OF 2015. Berentzen-Gruppe Aktiengesellschaft Haselünne / Germany Q1 / 2015: INTERIM REPORT WITHIN THE FIRST HALF-YEAR OF 2015 Berentzen-Gruppe Aktiengesellschaft Haselünne / Germany Securities Identification Number 520 163 International Securities Identification Numbers

More information

Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey Report

Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey Report Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey Report Contents List of Charts 2 List of Tables 3 Background 4 Overview 5 Credit Market Conditions 8 Personal Lending 10 Micro Business Lending 13 Small Business Lending

More information

NBP Quick Monitoring Survey

NBP Quick Monitoring Survey No. 2/ April NBP Quick Monitoring Survey Economic climate in the enterprise sector in Q1 and forecasts for Q2 The report presents the assessment of enterprises surveyed by NBP in Q1 and forecasts for Q2.

More information

The current economic situation in Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2015 5

The current economic situation in Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2015 5 The current economic situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank 5 6 Overview Global economy German economy emerging from sluggish phase faster than expected The global economy looks to have expanded in the

More information

Pakistan s Program with the IMF

Pakistan s Program with the IMF Pakistan s Program with the IMF 2013-2016 Jeffrey Franks Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund May 12, 2014 Weak economic performance: Real GDP growth has been low Private

More information

UNITED NATIONS INDEPENDENT EXPERT ON THE QUESTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND EXTREME POVERTY

UNITED NATIONS INDEPENDENT EXPERT ON THE QUESTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND EXTREME POVERTY UNITED NATIONS INDEPENDENT EXPERT ON THE QUESTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND EXTREME POVERTY Questionnaire JAN/2011 Post-crisis adjustment and fiscal consolidation processes (2010 onwards) 1. Has your country

More information

Fiscal policy and pension expenditure in Portugal

Fiscal policy and pension expenditure in Portugal Fiscal policy and pension expenditure in Portugal Cláudia Rodrigues Braz 1 1. Introduction From the end of the 1990s until 2005 (with a break in 2002), there was a gradual deterioration in the structural

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

POLISH INFORMATION AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT AGENCY R&D SECTOR IN POLAND

POLISH INFORMATION AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT AGENCY R&D SECTOR IN POLAND POLISH INFORMATION AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT AGENCY Foto: AA+W Fotolia.com R&D SECTOR IN POLAND The R&D sector in Poland characteristics and possibilities of support Characteristics of the Polish economy

More information

PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017. Box 1 Projection assumptions

PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017. Box 1 Projection assumptions PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017 Box 1 Projection assumptions Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 1. Introduction Projections

More information

GUIDELINES for the Single State Monetary Policy in 2016 and for 2017 and 2018. Moscow

GUIDELINES for the Single State Monetary Policy in 2016 and for 2017 and 2018. Moscow GUIDELINES for the Single State Monetary Policy in 2016 and for 2017 and 2018 Moscow Approved by the Bank of Russia Board of Directors on 10 November 2015 THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, 2015

More information

Greece Current trajectory & macroeconomic outlook

Greece Current trajectory & macroeconomic outlook Greece Current trajectory & macroeconomic outlook 2 η Διημερίδα Επίκαιρα Ζητήματα Φορολογικού Δικαίου 12-13 Δεκεμβρίου 2015 e-θέμις Dr. Platon Monokroussos Group Chief Economist Eurobank Ergasias S.A.

More information

The energy industry and energy price issues in Slovakia during recent years 1

The energy industry and energy price issues in Slovakia during recent years 1 The energy industry and energy price issues in Slovakia during recent years 1 Ing. Mikulá Cár, PhD. National Bank of Slovakia The energy industry and energy prices are becoming a subject of political decisions

More information

18 ECB FACTORS AFFECTING LENDING TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR MONEY AND LOAN DYNAMICS

18 ECB FACTORS AFFECTING LENDING TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR MONEY AND LOAN DYNAMICS Box 2 FACTORS AFFECTING LENDING TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR MONEY AND LOAN DYNAMICS The intensification of the financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 211 had a considerable

More information

URUGUAY. 1. General trends

URUGUAY. 1. General trends Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014 1 URUGUAY 1. General trends In 2013, Uruguay s level of economic activity increased by 4.4% compared with 2012, according to the country s physical

More information

THE PROCESS OF PLANNING AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY: THE CASE OF UGANDA.

THE PROCESS OF PLANNING AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY: THE CASE OF UGANDA. THE PROCESS OF PLANNING AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY: THE CASE OF UGANDA. By Margaret Kakande Poverty Analyst Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Government

More information

Steel Production in Czech Republic. Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015

Steel Production in Czech Republic. Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015 Steel Production in Czech Republic Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015 Main Economic Indicators % Change Czech Republic 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16P Private Consumption 1,0 0.2-1,8 0,4 1,7

More information

Annotated Agenda of the Sherpa meeting. Main features of Contractual Arrangements and Associated Solidarity Mechanisms

Annotated Agenda of the Sherpa meeting. Main features of Contractual Arrangements and Associated Solidarity Mechanisms Annotated Agenda of the Sherpa meeting 21-11-2013 Main features of Contractual Arrangements and Associated Solidarity Mechanisms At their meeting on 26 November the Sherpas are invited to discuss: General

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

Pentti Hakkarainen: Bank of Finland and its activities and the Finnish economic outlook

Pentti Hakkarainen: Bank of Finland and its activities and the Finnish economic outlook Pentti Hakkarainen: Bank of Finland and its activities and the Finnish economic outlook Speech by Mr Pentti Hakkarainen, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the Honorary Consulars meeting, Helsinki,

More information

THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences. Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research

THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences. Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research CONTENTS Causes background The crisis Consequences Role of economic policy Banking

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

Structural Reform and Medium-Term Economic and Fiscal Perspectives - FY2004 Revision

Structural Reform and Medium-Term Economic and Fiscal Perspectives - FY2004 Revision Structural Reform and Medium-Term Economic and Fiscal Perspectives - FY2004 Revision January 21, 2005 Cabinet Decision 1. About FY2004 Revision 1 Despite recent slack movement observed in certain areas,

More information

Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey Report

Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey Report Quarterly Credit Conditions Report Contents List of Figures & Tables... 2 Background... 3 Overview... 4 Personal Lending... 7 Micro Business Lending... 10 Small Business Lending... 12 Medium-Sized Business

More information

2000 Design by Ministry of Finance - Treasury - Internet/intranet team - Brigitte Degeest

2000 Design by Ministry of Finance - Treasury - Internet/intranet team - Brigitte Degeest 2000 Design by Ministry of Finance - Treasury - Internet/intranet team - Brigitte Degeest Content The main orientations of the 2000-2003 Stability Programme p. 3 1. Budgetary and socio-economic policy

More information

Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on the 2016 national reform programme of France

Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION. on the 2016 national reform programme of France EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 18.5.2016 COM(2016) 330 final Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2016 national reform programme of France and delivering a Council opinion on the 2016 stability

More information

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS

MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS VALUATION PROCESS BUSINESS ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION To determine a proper price for a firm s stock, security analyst must forecast the dividend & earnings that can be expected

More information

SECTOR ASSESSMENT (SUMMARY): FINANCE 1. 1. Sector Performance, Problems, and Opportunities

SECTOR ASSESSMENT (SUMMARY): FINANCE 1. 1. Sector Performance, Problems, and Opportunities Country Partnership Strategy: Bangladesh, 2011 2015 SECTOR ASSESSMENT (SUMMARY): FINANCE 1 Sector Road Map 1. Sector Performance, Problems, and Opportunities 1. The finance sector in Bangladesh is diverse,

More information

Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018

Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018 1. Introduction Projections for the Portuguese economy point to a moderate recovery in economic activity

More information

Specifics of national debt management and its consequences for the Ukrainian economy

Specifics of national debt management and its consequences for the Ukrainian economy Anatoliy Yepifanov (Ukraine), Vyacheslav Plastun (Ukraine) Specifics of national debt management and its consequences for the Ukrainian economy Abstract This article is about the specifics of the national

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

I. COUNTRY CONTEXT. A. Political and Social Context

I. COUNTRY CONTEXT. A. Political and Social Context A. Political and Social Context I. COUNTRY CONTEXT 1. Turkey s economic development has global significance, given its size, role as a regional power, and strategic location, bridging East and West. Turkey

More information

The Mexican Economy: Facts and Opportunities

The Mexican Economy: Facts and Opportunities Manuel Sánchez Santander Global Fixed Income Summit London, England, September 20, 2012 Contents 1 Structural features 2 Recent developments and outlook 3 Inflation and monetary policy 4 Economic challenges

More information

Economic Overview. East Asia managed to weather the global recession by relying on export-oriented

Economic Overview. East Asia managed to weather the global recession by relying on export-oriented Economic Overview Economic growth remains strong in East Asia and retains healthy momentum thanks to strong commodity prices and increases in exports. leads the region in growth and its GDP is expected

More information

11/6/2013. Chapter 16: Government Debt. The U.S. experience in recent years. The troubling long-term fiscal outlook

11/6/2013. Chapter 16: Government Debt. The U.S. experience in recent years. The troubling long-term fiscal outlook Chapter 1: Government Debt Indebtedness of the world s governments Country Gov Debt (% of GDP) Country Gov Debt (% of GDP) Japan 17 U.K. 9 Italy 11 Netherlands Greece 11 Norway Belgium 9 Sweden U.S.A.

More information

Further Developments of Hong Kong s Offshore RMB Market: Opportunities and Challenges

Further Developments of Hong Kong s Offshore RMB Market: Opportunities and Challenges Further Developments of Hong Kong s Offshore RMB Market: Opportunities and Challenges Zhang Ying, Senior Economist In recent years, as the internationalization of the RMB has been steadily carrying out,

More information

Innovative Economy 2007 2013

Innovative Economy 2007 2013 1 Operational Programme Innovative Economy 2007 2013 National Strategic Reference Framework 2007 2013 Warsaw, 1 October 2007 2 Publisher: Ministry of Regional Development Wspólna street no 2/4, 00-926

More information

MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL ASSESSMENT

MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL ASSESSMENT Public Sector Financial Management Program (RRP SAM 46384) A. BACKGROUND MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL ASSESSMENT 1. Samoa is composed of about 10 islands, 4 inhabited, and several uninhabited islets situated

More information