UK Census 2001 Abstract Introduction census Population growth

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1 UK Census 2001 Abstract This article looks at the main findings of the 2001 census, making some key comparisons with earlier population counts. In order to round off the population picture other demographic data for 2001, for example on births, deaths and migration, are also included. Introduction There is no single UK census. The Census for England and Wales is conducted by the Office for National Statistics. The Scottish Census is carried out by the General Register Office for Scotland, and the Northern Ireland census by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. A full census in the UK takes place every ten years. Preparation for the census in 2001 began as early as Various tests were conducted particularly with regard to new and revised questions. It is important that all questions are clear and allow people to respond with accuracy. The census is the most valuable source of information about the characteristics of people in the UK, particularly for small areas. It provides a benchmark for official population estimates. Between censuses the population figures are rolled forward using annual estimates of the components of population change. As the decade proceeds, problems with estimating migration in particular, progressively affect these rolled-forward figures. A new census is used for both revising previous years data and for providing a base for the estimates in the following decade. The first census in England and Wales was taken in Population growth The population of the UK on census day, 29 April 2001, was 58,789,194. This was about one million lower than prior estimates. The percentage share of each country (Figure 1) in this total was: England 83.6 per cent (49.14 million), Scotland 8.6 per cent (5.06 million), Wales 4.94 per cent (2.90 million), and Northern Ireland 2.87 per cent (1.69 million). Figure 1 The UK population 29 April 2001

2 The UK s population has increased by 17 per cent since 1951, a rate of growth comparable with a number of European countries (Austria 17 per cent, Belgium 19 per cent, Germany 20 per cent) but lower than the 23 per cent average for the European Union. These figures are low compared to many other parts of the world. For example, Australia s population grew by 133 per cent and the USA s by 80 per cent during the same time period. During the 1950s and 1960s, the UK population increased by 5.6 million due almost entirely to natural change. However, in the 1970s the population remained almost at a standstill because of the declining birth rate (Figure 2). During the 1980s and 1990s the population rose by 2.4 million. In this period natural change was again the most important factor, although since the late 1990s migration has been the main cause of growth. Figure 2 Fertility and Mortality Fertility In 2001 the crude birth rate for the UK was 11.4/1000, the lowest ever recorded. This resulted in 669,000 births during that year, 38 per cent fewer than 100 years earlier. The particularly low number of births in recent years is due to two factors: (a) lower fertility rates and (b) fewer women entering their peak reproductive years than in previous decades, a result of the smaller numbers of women born in the 1970s. The total fertility rate in 2001 was 1.63, down from 1.81 in Mortality In 2001 the death rate for men was 10.0/1000 and for women 10.4/1000, the lowest ever for both sexes. The higher crude death rate for women is due to the older age structure of the female population. The UK has experienced substantial internal migration with southern England and London continuing to grow while northern areas decline. Scotland (-2 per cent) and Wales (-3.2 per cent) have experienced population decline since 1981 (Figure 3), while in Northern Ireland the population increased by 9 per cent. In England the largest decline in population since 1981 has been in the North East (-4.6 per cent) with the greatest increase in the South West (12.5 per cent). Two other English regions also experienced population decline during this period the North West and Yorkshire and Humberside. Figure 3 The UK s population changes since 1981 Population Change ENGLAND 49,138, % North East 2,515, % North West 6,729, % Yorks/Humber 4,964, % E Midlands 4,172, % W Midlands 5,267, % E England 5,388, % London 7,172, % South East 8,000, % South West 4,928, % The Nations SCOTLAND 5,062, %

3 WALES 2,903, % N IRELAND 1,685, % Source: Census 2001 The modest increase in the overall population of London (5.4 per cent) during this 20-year period masks considerable internal contrasts. The boroughs of Havering, Westminster, Bromley, Wandsworth and Greenwich recorded a decline in population. In contrast, Tower Hamlets, in Inner London, registered the largest increase (+35.1 per cent). The fastest growing outer London borough was Merton (+12.1 per cent). Pockets of London have the highest birth rates in the country. The boroughs of Newham, Hackney and Tower Hamlets have the highest proportion of children under one year of age (Figure 4). Figure 4 Highest proportion of persons aged one and under 1 Newham 1.73% 2 Hackney 1.68% 3 Tower Hamlets 1.55% 4 Strabane 1.51% 5 Omagh 1.48% 6 Lewisham 1.48% 7 Greenwich 1.48% 8 Luton UA 1.47% 9 Richmond upon 1.45% Thames 10 Kensington and 1.44% Chelsea This reversal of previous population decline in a large urban area is known as reurbanisation, which is the most recent stage in the cycle of urbanisation. In contrast to London, provincial cities have failed to revive their declining populations (Figure 5), with Manchester and Liverpool suffering particularly sharp declines. Thus, recent population changes have reinforced the urban primacy of London even more. Between 1981 and 2001 the fastest growing district in England and Wales has been Milton Keynes ( per cent) where the rapid expansion of job opportunities has encouraged a high rate of inmigration. In addition, as a new town Milton Keynes has a fertility rate above the national average. Figure 5 Declining population in provincial cities

4 Figure 6 Inter-regional movements within the UK, 2001 Origin (figures in thousands) United England North Kingdom East Destination United Kingdom. North West Yorkshire and the Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East 1 Based on patients re-registering with NHS doctors in other parts of the United Kingdom. Moves where the origin and destination lie within the same region do not appear in the table. Source: Social Trends No 33, 2003 edition South West Wales Scotland Northern Ireland England North East North West Yorkshire & the Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East South West Wales Scotland Northern Ireland

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6 Figure 6 shows the extent of inter-regional movements within the UK in The data is based on patients re-registering with NHS doctors in other parts of the UK. Thus, movements within the same region are not recorded. During 2001, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland gained 9000, 6000 and 2000 people respectively within the UK. In contrast England recorded a net loss of 16,000 people. London experienced the greatest inter-regional loss at the regional level (-84,000) while the South West recorded the highest net gain as a result of internal migration (32,000). Figure 7 Net international migration by citizenship, 2001 United Kingdom Thousands British European Union Old Commonwealth New Commonwealth Other All These are interim estimates and are subject to revision following the rebasing of the population estimates using the 2001 Census. See also Appendix, Part 1: International migration estimates, and Citizenship. Source: Social Trends No 33, 2003 edition. Figure 7 shows net international migration by citizenship for 2001 and three preceding years over the past decade. The impact of international migration has changed markedly over the last decade with net inflows now an important component of population change in the UK. Population decline in Scotland By the end of this decade, barring a significant change in present trends, Scotland s population will drop below 5 million for the first time since the 1940s. Scotland s demographic decline (Figure 8) is amongst the most severe in Europe. The main reason is the country s low birth rate; no other region in the UK has a lower birth rate. In 2002, only 51,270 births were recorded in Scotland, the lowest figure since records began in 1851 and a fall of 43 per cent since The fertility rate is now only Migratory flows are a secondary problem and in some years of the past decade Scotland has even recorded net gains. Figure 8 Mid year population in Scotland 1990 to 2002

7 Depopulation is ravaging the Western Isles in particular. Between 1981 and 2001 the islands lost 16 per cent of their population overall, but on some islands the decline was 40 per cent. However, the problem of population decline is not confined to the islands. The population of Glasgow City fell by 19 per cent during the 20-year period. In the city of Dundee some school rolls have dropped to unsustainable levels and council houses cannot be filled. Figure 9 Low population density in the Western Isles Scotland s falling population makes it unique in Europe. While other European countries, for example Italy also have a very low birth rate, their populations are boosted by significant immigration. Scottish politicians view the demographic situation seriously. A falling population reduces the tax base and puts pressure on public services. A smaller population also makes it more difficult to develop the business sector because of reduced demand. The reasons for Scotland s low fertility are debatable. The two prime factors are probably: economic the limited job opportunities in much of the country in recent years social with women in Scotland left to take more responsibility for children than elsewhere in the UK Population density Figure 10 shows the population density of England and Wales by region according to the latest census. All of the UK s most densely populated areas are in London (Figure 11), with four boroughs recording figures of over 10,000 per km 2. The least densely populated region is the Highlands of Scotland with only eight people per square kilometre. Figure 10 Area and population by counties and UAs, 2001

8 Figure 11: the most and least densely populated UK areas Most densely populated Persons per km² 1 Kensington and Chelsea Islington Hammersmith and Fulham Hackney Lambeth Tower Hamlets Camden Southwark City of Westminster Wandsworth 7440

9 Least densely populated Persons per km² 1 Highland 8 2 Western Isles 9 3 Argyll & Bute 13 4 Shetland Islands 15 5 Orkney Islands 19 6 Scottish Borders 23 7 Dumfries and Galloway 23 8 Eden 23 9 Powys Perth & Kinross 27 Figure 12 High population density in Inner London Figure 13 Lower population density in a London suburb

10 Demographic ageing The median age of the population is rising and this is clearly reflected in the population pyramid for 2001 (Figure 14). For the first time in the UK s population history there are more people aged 60 and over (21 per cent) than under 16 (20 per cent). Figure 15 shows the areas where the latter group are most strongly represented. It is not surprising that Northern Ireland, with its relatively high fertility rate, dominates the list. Figure 14 UK Population Pyramid, 2001 Figure 15 Highest proportion of persons aged under 16 Derry 26.8% Newry & Mourne 26.6% Newham 26.2% Magherafelt 26.1% Strabane 26.0% Cookstown 26.0% Omagh 25.9% Dungannon 25.8% Limavady 25.6% Blackburn with Darwen 25.2% UA There has been a significant rise in the number of people aged 85 and over now over 1.1 million (1.9 per cent of the population). In 1951 this group was only 0.2 million in number (0.4 per cent of the population). Demographic ageing reflects increased life expectancy due to improvements in living standards and health care. It also reflects the fact that there have not been any events with such a significant effect on life expectancy like that of the first and second world wars.

11 Figure 16 Dependent population by age The proportion of the population aged 16 and under has fallen from 24 per cent in 1951 to 20 per cent in It is projected that the number of people aged 65 and over will exceed those under 16 by 2014 (Figure 16), and by 2025 there will be more than 1.6 million more people over the age of 65 than people under 16. Christchurch in Dorset is the pensioners capital of the UK with one in three residents of retirement age (Figure 17). There is clear evidence that the growing elderly population is migrating to the countryside. Figure 17 Highest proportion of persons of retirement age and of person aged 85 and over Highest proportion of persons of retirement age 1 Christchurch 33.1% 2 Rother 32.0% 3 East Devon 30.3% 4 West Somerset 29.9% 5 Tendring 29.4% 6 Arun 29.0% 7 North Norfolk 28.9% 8 East Dorset 28.7% 9 West Dorset 27.7% 10 Eastbourne 27.4% Highset proportion of persons aged 85 and over 1 Worthing 4.6% 2 Rother 4.6% 3 Eastbourne 4.4%

12 4 Arun 4.2% 5 East Devon 4.1% 6 Christchurch 4.1% 7 Torbay UA 3.8% 8 West Somerset 3.8% 9 Tendring 3.7% 10 Bournemouth UA 3.6% Figure 18 Nursing homes are an important facility for an ageing population In 2001 projected average life expectancy at birth in the UK was 76 years for males and 80 years for females. Over the last 30 years the projected average life expectancy at birth increased by six years for men and five years for women. The average age of the population is expected to rise from 39.1 years in 2001 to 42.4 years in Infant mortality Infant mortality has been falling steadily in the UK. At the beginning of the twentieth century, infant mortality in the UK was 142/1000. By 1980 it was down to 12.2/1000, by 1990 to 7.9, by 1995 to 6.2/1000 and by 2001 to 5.5/1000. The sex ratio There are fewer men than women at all ages over 21 (Figure 19). Previously, males in the UK outnumbered females at all ages up to the late forties. However, in the last 20 years the cross-over point has been falling rapidly. Figure 19 Sex ratios for the 1991 and 2001 censuses Age Census Census Total

13 Highest number females per male sex ratio (m/f) 1 Eastbourne Rother Belfast Worthing Arun Christchurch Glasgow city Wirral East Devon Sefton 0.89 Highest number males per female sex ratio (m/f) 1 Richmondshire Rutland UA Limavady Bridgnorth Rushmoor Reading UA Magherafelt Hart Shetland Islands Forest Heath 1.01 The pattern of men to women in the 2001 census is expressed widely across the country. For example, 75 per cent of the 376 local government districts in England and Wales have more females than males in the key age group Many of the other districts have particular reasons for an excess of males in this age group, for example they include areas with a large armed forces population. Eastbourne, a popular retirement centre, has the least men to women (87:100), while Richmond in rural North Yorkshire where agriculture is a significant occupation has the most (107:100). Ethnicity The minority ethnic population totalled 4.6 million in This was 7.9 per cent of the population of the UK (Figure 20). Half of the total minority ethnic population were Asians of Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi or other Asian origin. In contrast a quarter of minority ethnic people described themselves as Black (Black Caribbean, Black African or Other Black). Fifteen per cent described their ethnic group as Mixed. Figure 20 The ethnic population of the UK 2001 Total population Minority population Count % % ethnic

14 White 54,153, n/a Mixed 677, Asian or Asian British Indian 1,053, Pakistani 747, Bangladeshi 283, Other Asian 247, Black or Black British Black Caribbean 565, Black African 485, Black Other 97, Chinese 230, Other 230, All minority ethnic 4,635, population All population 58,789, n/a Two areas of London, Newham and Brent, have become the first in the UK to have a non-white majority. In Newham, white people make up 39.4 per cent of the population, while in Brent it is 45.3 per cent. These trends were expected because: for those communities who emigrated to Britain it was natural to go to areas where other people from these communities already lived these boroughs have young populations which have a higher than average birth rate. The number of black and Asian people living in England rose by more than 40 per cent between 1991 and 2001 while the white population remained almost stationary. In fact the latter would have dropped considerably but for significant migration from the EU, Eastern Europe, Australia and North America. Figure 21 Ethnic shops are an established feature in most large urban areas in the UK

15 Ethnic groups have a younger age structure than the population in general (Figure 22). The Mixed group has the youngest age structure with 55 per cent under the age of 16. The White population has the highest proportion aged 65 and over (16 per cent). Figure 22 Age distribution by ethnic group Religion This was the first census to ask about religion, although this section of the census was voluntary. It found that England and Wales now has a Muslim population of 1.5 million, making it the largest faith after Christianity. In England and Wales 71.7 per cent of people described themselves as Christian. Household size The number of people living in single person households rose from 26 per cent in 1991 to 30 per cent in London, with 35 per cent, recorded the highest figure. Nearly half of the one-person households are one-pensioner only households and three-quarters of these are occupied by a woman living on her own. Of the remaining one-person households, men outnumber women by three to two. One-person households are least likely to have amenities such as central heating or sole use of a bath/shower and toilet. The increasing social divide Detailed regional analysis of the census data presents a picture of increasing social division in Britain. The poorest people are increasingly left living in ghettos while the better off are increasingly congregating in affluent areas. Professors Danny Dorling and Phil Rees of the University of Leeds told the 2003 annual conference of the Royal Geographical Society, Cities, towns and villages are dividing, both within them and between them. There has been no halt to what began in the early 1980s. For key aspects in life the nation has continued in the 1990s to divide socially geographically, often at a faster rate

16 than in the 1980s. Britain is better off, but less equal. One of the few positive points in a social sense is that ethnic minority groups are moving from city ghettos into the suburbs and countryside. Figure 23 shows a selection of census indicators by major region. Even at this scale there are striking contrasts. For example: the percentage of households without central heating varies from 5.2 per cent in the East to 13.1 per cent in Yorkshire and Humberside the percentage of households without a car or van in London (37.5) is almost double that of the South East (19.4) the unemployment rate varied from 2.3 per cent in the South East to 4.5 per cent in the North East.

17 Figure 23 Census indicators by major region in England and Wales % population % unemployed % no. qualifications % qualifications % households % households % travel to work % owner occupied % households % overcrowding white at degree without with 2 or by public households without indicator level car/van more transport central or higher cars/vans heating United Kingdom England North East North West Yorkshire and Humberside East Midlands West Midlands London South East East South West Wales

18 One and a half million households in the country are classed as being overcrowded. The importance of the census Accurate figures on the age of the population are vital to plan to provide enough money for pensions. Government and local authorities need to know where to spend money on schools, hospitals and other services. The Commission for Racial Equality stated, This data not only helps us substitute myths with facts, it also provides a benchmark from which to accurately assess the impact of measures to improve race relations. Criticism of the census The 2001 census cost 254 million. The Parliamentary watchdogs on the Treasury Committee believe a rolling census could be more accurate than the traditional count. This group claim that the census failed to count 600,000 homes. The Office for National Statistics claim that the figures are robust in spite of admissions that they created one million fictitious householders to top up the total. Census officials found certain groups, such as students and elderly women, were difficult to pin down. They used new mathematical techniques to predict how many had been missed and where they probably lived. Further references Websites References Social Trends (HMSO), No: edition