COFFEE VALUE CHAIN IN SELECTED IMPORTING
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1 COFFEE VALUE CHAIN IN SELECTED IMPORTING COUNTRIES Denis Seudieu, Chief Economist International Coffee Council London, March 2011 Table 1: Average consumption in selected importing countries (60-kg bags) Average Share in consumption 1975 total 2009 France % Germany % Italy % Japan % Netherlands % Spain % Sweden % UK % USA % Sub total selected countries % Total all importing countries
2 Table 2: Average imports of selected importing countries (60-kg bags) Average imports Share in total France % Germany % Italy % Japan % Netherlands % Spain % Sweden % UK % USA % Sub total selected countries % Total all importing countries Graph 1: Unit value of imports of green coffee France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the ICO composite indicator price US cents/lb France Germany Italy Spain Netherlands ICO composite 2
3 Graph 2: Unit value of imports of green coffee Japan, Sweden, UK, USA and the ICO composite indicator price US cents/lb Japan Sweden UK USA ICO composite Table 3: Correlation coefficients between the unit values of imports of green coffee and the ICO composite price France Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Spain Sweden UK ICO USA composite France Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Spain Sweden UK USA ICO composite
4 Table 4: Correlation coefficients between unit values of imports and retail coffee prices in selected importing countries (US cents/lb) Correlation coefficient Coefficient of determination (R²) France % Germany % Italy % Japan % Netherlands % Spain % Sweden % UK % USA % Determination of gross added value A. Gross added value Retail prices may be used to arrive at an estimate of the total revenue obtained by roasters based on the imports of green coffee. The gross added value is thus the difference between the retail price and the unit value of imports of green coffee. It should be noted that the gross added value includes processing/roasting i and distribution/marketing costs as well as administrative costs, various taxes and profit. 4
5 Determination of gross added value (cont d) Conversion factors are used to calculate the equivalent of roasted coffee to green coffee by multiplying the net weight of the roasted coffee by Similarly, the equivalent of soluble coffee to green coffee is estimated by multiplying the net weight of the soluble coffee by (for the UK only). Annex 2 shows unit values of green coffee imports calculated on the basis of these conversion factors and Annex 3 shows annual averages of retail prices. 400 Graph 3: Gross added values in France, Germany and USA US cents/lb France Germany USA 5
6 Graph 4: Gross added values in the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden US cents/lb Netherlands Spain Sweden Graph 5: Gross added values in Italy, Japan and UK US cents/lb Italy Japan UK 6
7 Table 5: ICO composite and group indicator prices Averages per period (US cents per pound) ICO composite Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian naturals Robustas Table 6a: Retail prices, unit value of imports and gross added values Averages during the period 1975 to 1989 Unit Gross Gross added Retail price value of imports added value value as a % of retail price France % Germany % Italy % Japan % Netherlands % Spain % Sweden % UK % USA % 7
8 Table 6b: Retail prices, unit value of imports and gross added values Averages during the period from 1990 to 2009 Unit Gross Gross added Retail price value of imports added value value as a % of retail price France % Germany % Italy % Japan % Netherlands % Spain % Sweden % UK % USA % Table 6c: Retail price, unit value of imports and gross added values Averages during the period from 2000 to 2009 Unit Gross Gross added Retail value of added value as a % of price imports value retail price France % Germany % Italy % Japan % Netherlands % Spain % Sweden % UK % USA % 8
9 Determination of gross added value B. Total gross added value The total gross added value is the overall revenue obtained by the roasting industry from total consumption in the country concerned. The total gross value added is thus an indicator of the formation of the total resources created from roasting coffee in the country. The overall gross value added is calculated by multiplying the country s total volume of consumption by the gross added value. Table 7 shows the average of total gross value added obtained in selected importing countries in the subperiods under reference. Table 7: Total gross added value average in selected countries (US$ million) Sub periods 1975 to to to to 2009 France Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Spain Sweden UK USA Total
10 Table 8: Deflated Total gross value added averages in selected countries (US$ million) 1975 to 2009 Sub periods 1975 to to to 2009 France Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Spain Sweden UK USA Total Graph 6: Total gross added values nominal and deflated (2000 terms) 1975 to billion US$ Nominal Deflated (2000 terms) 10
11 Conclusion This exercise highlighted the global added value of the roasting industry from coffee consumption in nine importing countries. Gross added value totalled US$28.8 billion and US$31.1 billion in 2009 and 2008 for total consumption of 56.3 and 58.4 million bags, respectively. Conclusion (cont d) The gross added value of these nine importing countries is very much higher than the total export earnings of all exporting countries in the same period, which were estimated at US$13.3 and US$15.4 billion in 2009 and 2008 for a volume of exports totalling 96.2 million and 97.6 million bags, g, respectively. After introducing the UN deflator index, gross added value is estimated at US$22.4 and US$21.8 billion in 2008 and 2009, respectively. 11
12 Conclusion (cont d) Moreover, it may be noted that gross added value shares in retail prices have increased during recent years and are above those obtained during the regulated market period from 1975 to Recent market developments indicate further marked increases of gross added value shares. 12
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