UNDERSTANDING CHINA S FOREIGN POLICY

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3 Understanding China s foreign policy Summer UNDERSTANDING CHINA S FOREIGN POLICY China faces three key dilemmas as its new leadership seeks to craft a foreign policy to match the country's new-found global economic strength, said Huang Jing, Professor and Director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore. The first dilemma is that, as a rising power, China will inevitably face conflicts of interests with the United States and other established world players, but will be better off working with the Washington and avoiding a major conflict. Secondly, China's growing economic might means that it has interests around the world, but it lacks the hard power outreach to defend those interests. The third dilemma goes to the heart of all challenges facing China's leadership, Huang explained. "As China opens more and more, all the fundamental problems which can really destroy China are at home," he said. "None of the external forces can defeat China, it's a big power. All the problems that can really blow China apart are within China." None of the external forces can defeat China, it's a big power. All the problems that can really blow China apart are within China. Those problems can all be triggered into explosion by external activities. Huang Jing, Professor and Director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore Amongst those problems, he listed Taiwan, Tibet, human rights and the disparities within Chinese society. "Those problems can all be triggered into explosion by external activities," Huang said. "To put it simply: you have all the bombs that can blow you apart under the table, but all the triggers are outside the room."

4 2 Friends of Europe Asia Programme To confront those dilemmas, China sees two solutions: maintaining good relations with the established powers, particularly the United States, and seeking to fit in with the existing world order, rather than challenging it as emerging powers did in the past. The precondition for China's rise is not military power, but reform, because only through reform China can join a world which is not China's world. That's called peaceful rise or peaceful development. Huang Jing, Professor and Director of the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore To achieve that integration with the current world order, China will need to reform, Huang contented. Its internal political system is not compatible with the rest of the world, he said. China is feared not just for its power and size, but for being regarded as unpredictable given its different political system. "The precondition for China's rise is not military power, but reform, because only through reform China can change itself so that it can join a world which is not China's world. That's called peaceful rise or peaceful development," he said. There is a feeling in Brussels that China is somehow trying to divide and rule with Europe, striking special different relationships with member states and that somehow this is eroding and endangering the EU-China relationship. Shada Islam, Head of Policy at Friends of Europe For the rest of the world, the question that needs answering is whether the Chinese leadership views the current path of peaceful development as a means or end. If it is simply seen as a means to solidify its rise to power: "China can be very dangerous" because a peaceful rise does not mean China will remain peaceful once it has risen, Huang concluded.

5 Understanding China s foreign policy Summer Whatever the challenges and uncertainties of China's rising power, the European Union (EU) views Beijing as an increasingly important interlocutor as the 10th anniversary of the their strategic partnership approaches, said Viorel Isticioaia-Budura, Managing Director for Asia at the European External Action Service (EEAS). "In terms of international development, in trade, in military security at regional and international level, and in other global issues which are increasingly challenging the international community, China can also be an important partner and a player," Isticioaia-Budura said. "From the EU viewpoint China is increasingly seen as a partner in international affairs." From the EU viewpoint China is increasingly seen as a partner in international affairs. Viorel Isticioaia-Budura, Managing Director for Asia at the European External Action Service (EEAS) The EU has its own assets, he underlined. By developing the relationship, Europe can share its experiences in areas from international security partnerships and economic integration, to urban planning and environment protection in ways which are beneficial for China and its neighbours. "The EU as a collective entity, as an international actor, really understands many of the challenges which the nations of Asia, are now facing, including China," Isticioaia-Budura said. "In Asia unfortunately many states still have the problem of restoring their national integration and trying to establish a way of managing domestic and foreign challenges to ensure the stability and progress of their people. From this point of view we do offer experience."

6 4 Friends of Europe Asia Programme Moderator Shada Islam, Head of Policy at Friends of Europe, pointed out however that the Brussels-Beijing relationship is currently at a low ebb, with problems going beyond the ongoing trade disputes. "It is not a good time for EU-China relations and it's not just about the solar panel antidumping case and others that are planned, it's a little bit deeper than that," Islam said. "There is a feeling in Brussels that China is somehow trying to divide and rule with Europe, that somehow it's going beyond the EU and striking special different relationships with Germany and other member states and that somehow this is eroding and endangering the EU-China relationship." As a major international and regional actor, China will be eager in the near future to contribute in building institutions, in the norm-setting process. That is something where we will be ready to share experience and to help China play that role as a responsible stakeholder. Viorel Isticioaia-Budura, Managing Director for Asia at the European External Action Service (EEAS) Huang said China is behaving like the United States, Russia and others in exploiting differences among EU member states in its dealing with Europe. That will continue for as long as the Europeans allow their internal differences to provide opportunities that others can take advantage of, he said. The challenge for China would be not to overplay its hand. China views relations with EU member states as a key foundation for the overall EU-China relationship. This 2-fold approach can indeed be complementary to the overall agenda, said Isticioaia-Budura. To ensure constructive subregional cooperation however, China should include areas of the EU-China portfolio like climate, culture or infrastructure in its bilateral relations, he underlined. Despite those divisions and the current economic difficulties, Huang said China does not see Europe as a declining power, but rather as an important player in a multipolar world. "Working with Europe, with European countries, enlarges China's strategic space," he said. "If China wants to play a role in restructuring the international financial order, Europe is a power that China has to consider seriously."

7 Understanding China s foreign policy Summer Huang noted that the emerging powers in the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) group are also facing challenges that could limit their rise. They include the need to maintain economic progress, their exclusion from international security structures and weaknesses in the global financial order. To deal with such issues and fulfil its ambitions to be a major player in setting the global agenda, China is aware that it needs to work with Europe and other partners, rather than limiting its efforts to developing a great power relationship relationship with Washington. Isticioaia-Budura said the EU would welcome a greater Chinese role in developing the international agenda. "As a major international and regional actor, China will be eager in the near future to contribute in building institutions, in the norm-setting process. That is something where we will be ready to share experience and to help China play that role as a responsible stakeholder," he said. "We really believe that China can contribute."

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