YouGov began weekly polling immediately after the July 4 holiday weekend. As of

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1 The Economist / YouGov 4 Presidential Election Internet Poll: Post-Conventions Report Morris P. Fiorina, Jon Krosnick, and Samuel J. Abrams YouGov began weekly polling immediately after the July 4 holiday weekend. As of September 9 ten polls have been completed with sample sizes of approximately respondents per poll, most of whom fill out the questionnaire on Monday or Tuesday of the week. The poll of August 2-4 reports public opinion surveyed 3-5 days after the Democratic National Convention and the poll of September 6-8 reports public opinion surveyed 3-5 days after the Republican National Convention. All figures are based on registered voters. All data will be made available to the research community after the election.

2 Presidential Trial Heats As seen in the accompanying figure, the race began as a virtual dead heat and remains so today. Based on polling during the recent Republican Convention, Time reported that President enjoyed a double-digit lead among likely voters, and Newsweek reported a similar margin at that time among registered voters. In contrast, a post-convention Gallup Poll reported a smaller lead among likely voters and only a two-point margin among registered voters. 1 Our data are in accord with Gallup s and indicate a race that is still neck and neck. 2 In contrast to reports of many other reported polls, the YouGov responses indicate that John received a small bounce after the Democratic Convention, a bounce that did not erode until late August. On the order of 3 percentage points, this bounce came from the ranks of those who previously reported intending to vote for someone other than or Nader. support has been trending upward since mid-august, and the Republican Convention seems to have added little or nothing to that trend. Compared to previous conventions, both of the 4 bounces were very small, but contrary to some other polls indications, the YouGov data suggest that received more of a bounce than. Small fluctuations aside, the most striking feature of the trial heat series is the picture of stability it conveys. The intended vote for both candidates has fluctuated within a narrow band of 5 percentage points or so. Conventions, swift boat attacks, car bombs and job reports have had little or no net impact on the YouGov respondents. 1 Frank Newport, Questions and Answers with the Editor in Chief, The Gallup Poll Tuesday Briefing, September 7, 4. 2 A Rasmussen poll conducted at the same time as the most recent YouGov poll, also reports a one-point lead. Mort Kondracke,, are Tied, and Neither Has Closed the Deal Yet, ( 2

3 Suppose the election for President were being held TODAY. Who would you vote for? George W., the Republican; John F, the Democrat; Ralph Nader, an independent candidate, or someone else? Percentage (%) in Support of Candidate 9 4 July 5-6 July July July August 2-4 August 9-11 August August August 31- September 1 September 6-8 Nader Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 3

4 Overall Presidential Approval There has been very little movement in judgments of George W. s performance as president. The approval series has tracked between 4 and 45 percent all summer, a bit below where conventional polls typically have read. Moreover, in contrast to some conventional polls, the YouGov polls do not show that the president s approval ratings have risen above percent recently. Rather, they remain in dangerous territory, electorally speaking. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. is handling his job as President? Percentage (%) Approving/Disapproving 9 4 July 5-6 July July July August 2-4 August 9-11 August Approve Disapprove August August 31- September 1 September 6-8 Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 4

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6 Direction of the Country Majorities of registered voters consistently express dissatisfaction with the way things are going in the country, a sentiment that rose above sixty percent in the mid-august YouGov poll and gradually diminished thereafter. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Percentage (%) Satisfied/Dissatisfied 9 4 July 5-6 July July July August 2-4 August 9-11 August Satisfied Dissatisfied August August 31- September 1 September 6-8 Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 6

7 Voter Engagement in the Campaign Consistent with conventional polls, registered voters in the YouGov samples consistently express a high level of concern with the outcome of the election: 9 percent claim such emotional engagement. But scarcely more than half the number who care a good deal about the outcome report that they have been very interested in the campaign, although the number of such interested has been climbing gradually during the summer. Generally speaking, would you say that you personally care a good deal who wins the presidential election this fall, or that you don t care very much who wins? 9 Percent (%) 4 July 5-6 July July July August 2-4 August 9-11 August August August 31- Sept. 1 September 6-8 Care a good deal Don t care very much Don t know Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 7

8 Some people don t pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you have been very much interested, somewhat interested or not much interested in the political campaigns so far this year? 9 Percent (%) 4 July 5-6 July July July August 2-4 August 9-11 August August Very much interested Somewhat interested Not much interested August 31- September 1 September 6-8 Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 8

9 Candidate Qualities The following series of graphs describe how registered voters evaluated the candidates. For the most part, these tend to mirror the overall tenor of the campaign. More than John, George has been perceived as tough and a strong leader. His advantage in these popular perceptions of both qualities increased a bit after the Republican Convention. has also been viewed as somewhat more moral and trustworthy than. On the negative side, has been seen as too close to special interests. has been seen as more intelligent and more knowledgeable, but his advantage in popular perceptions of both qualities declined somewhat after the Republican Convention. The charge that flip-flops on the issues was strongly reflected in the data, and again, his disadvantage relative to widened after the Republican Convention. The candidates were evaluated very similarly when it comes to caring about people like me. Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Intelligent" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 4 July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 9

10 % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 4 Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Trustworthy" July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote Candidate Trait Assessment: "He Cares About People Like Me" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 4 July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote

11 % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 4 Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Tough" July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote. Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Knowledgeable" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 4 July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 11

12 % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 4 Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Moral" July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote Candidate Trait Assessment: "He Flip-Flops on the Issues" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 4 July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 12

13 % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 4 Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is a Strong Leader" July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote. Candidate Trait Assessment: "He is Too Close to Special Interests" % saying this quality fits him "Extremely Well" or "Very Well" 9 4 July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Extremely Well" and "Very Well" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 13

14 The Issues Perceptions of which candidate can best handle a particular issue tend to track the extensive poll findings on such matters, with a few notable exceptions. In particular, in the YouGov polls registered voters give an edge on handling the economy during the next four years, a surprising finding given the lackluster performance of the economy during the President s first term. enjoys an advantage over in perceptions of his capacity to combat terrorism, an advantage that has widened since the Republican Convention. Similarly, has an edge on conducting the war in Iraq. The data on the two items are extremely similar, perhaps testimony to the Administration s strenuous efforts to equate the two. For most of the summer enjoyed a significant edge on international relations, but closed the gap after the Republican Convention. When it comes to domestic issues, enjoys advantages on the traditionally Republican issues of taxes and crime. But the traditional advantage of a Democratic candidate on most domestic issues is muted or even nonexistent. Only the environment shows a clear advantage for. Health insurance, race relations and budget deficits show a mid-summer advantage for that disappeared after the Republican Convention. Neither candidate has a significant edge on public education. is viewed as somewhat better at handling the gay marriage issue, but as with the deficit issue, relatively fewer Americans believe that either candidate could handle this issue well as compared to other issues. 14

15 How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the economy" over the next four years if he is re-elected/elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" or "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "health insurance in America" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 15

16 How do you think George W /John F. would handle "public education" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the environment" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 16

17 How do you think George W /John F. would handle "race relations" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the conduct of the war in Iraq" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 17

18 How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the conduct of the war on terrorism" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "taxes" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 18

19 How do you think George W /John F. would handle "the federal budget deficit" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "relations with America's allies around the world" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 19

20 How do you think George W /John F. would handle "marriage between people of the same sex" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote How do you think George W /John F. would handle "crime" over the next four years if he is re-elected President on November 2nd? Percentage (%) answering "Excellent" or "Good" 9 4 July 5-6 August 2-4 August September 6-8 Notes: Percentage of respondents answering "Excellent" and "Good" when assessing the candidate traits. Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote

21 The Race for Congress Registered voters were nearly evenly split on the matter of which party they would like to see in control of Congress after the election. A little over 4 percent said the Democrats, and a little over 4 percent said the Republicans. Of course, such responses mean little without knowledge of which candidate the voters would like to see win the presidency. They are logically as consistent with forty percent of the electorate preferring unified Democratic control and forty percent unified Republican control as with percent preferring divided control. As usual, public opinion lies between these two polar possibilities. About half the registered voters favored unified party control, about a third divided control, and the remainder didn t have an opinion. Who would you prefer to be in control of the Congress after the next election? 9 Percent (%) 4 July 5-6 July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Democrats Republicans Don't know Sample: Respondents w ho are registered to vote 21

22 In general, do you think it is better for the same political party to control both the Congress and the Presidency, so they can work together closely, or do you think it is better to have different political parties controlling the Congress and the Presidency, to prevent either one from going to far? 9 Percent (%) 4 July August 2-4 August September 6-8 Same party control both Different parties control Don t know Sample: Respondents who are registered to vote 22

23 Beer or Coffee On a lighter note, by a margin of 56% to 44%, registered voters reported that they would rather have a beer or cup of coffee with George than with John. On the other hand, John Edwards enjoyed a similar margin (59:41) over Dick Cheney. 23

24 Summary The presidential race remains exceedingly close. Presidential approval ratings have been at a middling level that is cause for concern in the Republican campaign, and a majority of the registered voters have said they believe the country is going in the wrong direction. President certainly has not yet closed the deal with the American electorate. Yet John has not been able to capitalize on the relative weakness of the President s position. Neither on the issues nor on his personal qualities has he been able to establish a large edge over the President. On the contrary, has been judged somewhat more highly personally and somewhat more capable on the issues. 24