Australian Nut Conference April 2015 Sydney, Australia. International Nut & Dried Fruit Council

Transcription

1 International Nut & Dried Fruit Council Australian Nut Conference April 2015 Sydney, Australia Michael Waring Member of the Board of Directors, Executive Committee, Scientific and Government Affairs Committee, and Chair of the Ambassadors Committee Day Job Managing Director / CEO Waring Group which includes the MWT Foods Group

2 About Us

3 Mission and Membership Mission: To be the International source for information on nuts and dried fruits as regards Health, Nutrition, Statistics, Food Safety, Government Standards, Regulations Regarding Trade Barriers, and Agricultural Quality Standards. 17 products: Almonds Apricot Kernels Brazil Nuts Cashews Hazelnuts Macadamias Pecans Pine Nuts Pistachios Walnuts Peanuts 670 Companies 76 Countries Dates Dried Apricots Dried Cranberries Dried Figs Dried Grapes Prunes A Board of Directors of 13 countries. Ambassadors in 34 countries. An international team: 5 sub-committees, 9 staff, 37 nationalities. The Cracker magazine, monthly newsletter, weekly Cracking the News, online Database, Global Statistical Review, Trade Flows World Map 3

4 Industry s Umbrella Food safety, agricultural quality standards, trade barriers, border rejections, etc. Codex Alimentarius, FAO, WHO, WTO, UNECE, EU, USDA, FDA, CCCFNA, etc. Aflatoxins, Salmonella, Pesticides, etc. Ethics and Social Responsability Trade Agreements Health & Nutrition N. America: Salmonella South America: Microbiological Contamination, Salmonella Europe: Aflatoxins, Microbiological Contamination, Salmonella China: Contaminants, Aflatoxins, Microbiological Contamination, Salmonella India and Vietnam: Fumigation, Microbiological Contamination, Salmonella Japan: Pesticides Food Availability Food Safety Regulations Agricultural Quality Standards

5 Health & Nutrition INC World Forum for Nutrition Research and Dissemination: The international umbrella for scientific research related to health and nutrition as regards nuts and dried fruits. Objectives: To define research priorities To promote calls for research projects To disseminate results worldwide Activities: Annual Call for Research Projects Annual Call for Dissemination Projects INC Award for Excellence in Research Next Symposia: European Nutrition Conference, Berlin, Germany, October 20-23, 2015 International Congress of Nutrition, Buenos Aires, Argentina, October 22-27,

6 Health & Nutrition Annual Call for Research Projects Nut consumption and changes in weight and body fat distribution in adults from 10 European countries (epidemiologic study). Principal Investigator : Dr. Joan Sabaté, Loma Linda University, USA. Association between dietary nuts exposure and cognitive decline over three-year period in older adults: the InCHIANTI study (clinical study). PI: Dr. Cristina Andrés Lacueva, University of Barcelona, Spain. Long-term effects of an energy-restricted Mediterranean diet on mortality and cardiovascular disease (clinical study). PI: Dr. Miguel Ángel Martínez-González, University of Navarra, Spain. Long-term nut consumption and cognitive function with aging (epidemiologic study). PI: Dr. Fran Grodstein, The Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, USA. 6

7 The World Nut market Snap Shot Raw Product Trends Key Issues and Developments Forward Promote the INC 2015 Turkey!

8 World Nut Market Snap Shot Who said the Nut Business is Simple?

9 Almonds 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 WORLD ALMOND PRODUCTION (KERNEL BASIS, MT) USA Australia Spain Iran Turkey Tunisia Others YEAR AVERAGE ALMOND EXPORTS (SHELLED, MT) *Transit country USA, / 75% Spain, / 9% China, / 3% Australia, / 3% Netherlands*, / 1% Others, / 9% 5-YEAR AVERAGE ALMOND IMPORTS (SHELLED, MT) Germany, / 14% Spain*, / 12% China, / 8% UAE, / 6% France, / 6% Italy, / 5% Netherlands**, / 4% Others, / 45% Source: INC and DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade database *Processing for turron (Spanish nougat) **Transit country

10 Amazonia (Brazil) Nuts 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 WORLD BRAZIL NUT PRODUCTION (KERNEL BASIS, MT) Bolivia Peru Brazil 5-YEAR AVERAGE BRAZIL NUT EXPORTS (SHELLED, MT) *Transit country Bolivia, / 63% Peru, / 11% UK, / 5% Netherlands*, / 7% Others, / 14% 15,000 10,000 5-YEAR AVERAGE BRAZIL NUT IMPORTS (SHELLED, MT) 5, USA, / 26% UK, / 22% Germany, / 15% Netherlands*, / 8% Australia, / 5% Others, / 25% *Transit country Source: INC and DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade database

11 Cashews 700, , , , , ,000 WORLD CASHEW PRODUCTION (KERNEL BASIS, MT) West Africa India Viet nam East Africa Brazil Cambodia Indonesia Others 5 -YEAR AVERAGE CASHEW EXPORTS (SHELLED, MT) Viet nam*, / 44% India*, / 29% Brazil, / 8% Netherlands**, / 5% Tanzania, / 3% Ghana, / 2% Nigeria, / 1% Indonesia, / 1% Others, / 5% *Processing country ** Transit country 5-YEAR AVERAGE CASHEWS IMPORTS (SHELLED, MT) 100, Source: INC and DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade database USA, / 29% China, / 11% Netherlands*, / 10% Germany*, / 6% UAE*, / 6% Australia, / 3% UK, / 3% Others, / 32% *Transit country

12 Hazelnuts 600, , , , , ,000 WORLD HAZELNUT PRODUCTION (KERNEL BASIS, MT) Turkey Italy USA Georgia Azerbaijan Spain Others YEAR AVERAGE HAZELNUT EXPORT S (SHELLED, MT) Turkey, / 74% Italy, / 6% Georgia, / 7% Azerbaijan, / 5% Germany, / 2% Others, / 6% 5-YEAR AVERAGE HAZELNUTS IMPORTS (SHELLED, MT) Italy*, / 22% Germany*, / 16% France, / 12% Russian Fed., / 5% Switzerland, / 5% Canada, / 4% Others, / 35% *Transit country Source: INC and DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade database

13 Macadamias 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 WORLD MACADAMIA PRODUCTION (KERNEL BASIS, MT) Australia South Africa Kenya USA Malawi Guatemala Others YEAR AVERAGE MACADAMIA EXPORTS (SHELLED, MT) South Africa, / 32% Australia, / 19% China*, / 13% Kenya, 3,717 / 12% Netherlands**, / 7% Guatemala, / 5% Zimbabwe, / 5% USA, / 4% Others, 796 / 3% 5-YEAR AVERAGE MACADAMIA IMPORTS (SHELLED, MT) China*, / 22% USA, / 17% Viet nam, / 12% Germany, / 10% Japan, / 7% Netherlands**, / 6% Others, / 26% *Processing country ** Transit country Source: INC and DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade database

14 Pecans 120, ,000 80,000 WORLD PECAN PRODUCTION (KERNEL BASIS, MT) USA Mexico South Africa Australia Others 5 -YEAR AVERAGE PECAN EXPORTS (SHELLED, MT) Mexico, / 59% USA, / 40% South Africa, 320 / 1% Australia, 274 / 1% China, 207 / 1% 60,000 40,000 5-YEAR AVERAGE PECAN IMPORTS (SHELLED, MT) 20, USA*, / 59% Canada, / 11% Netherlands**, / 6% Mexico, / 5% UK, / 5% China, / 4% Others,3.908 / 10% *Processing country **Transit country Source: INC and DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade database

15 Pine Nuts 40,000 35,000 30,000 WORLD PINE NUT PRODUCTION (KERNEL BASIS, MT) China Korea DPR Afghanistan Pakistan Russian Fed. Others 5-YEAR AVERAGE PINE NUT EXPORTS (SHELLED, MT) China, / 72% Korea DPR, / 10% Turkey, / 10% Russian Fed., 313 / 2% Spain, 310 / 2 % Portugal, 115 / 1% Others, 264 / 2% 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, YEAR AVERAGE PINE NUTS IMPORTS (SHELLED, MT) USA, / 18% Germany, / 16% China, / 16% Italy*, / 10% Others, / 41% *Processing for pesto sauce Source: INC and DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade database

16 Pistachios 700, , , , , ,000 WORLD PISTACHIO PRODUCTION (INSHELL BASIS, MT) USA Iran Turkey Syria Afghanistan Others 5-YEAR AVERAGE PISTACHIO EXPORTS (INSHELL,MT) Iran, / 40% USA, / 37% China, / 8% Germany, / 4% Netherlands, / 4% Luxembourg, / 3% Belgium, / 3% Others, / 2% 5-YEAR AVERAGE PISTACHIOS IMPORTS (INSHELL, MT) 100, China*, / 27% Germany**, / 11% Viet nam, / 8% UAE, / 5% Belgium**, / 5% Russian Fed., / 4% Netherlands**, / 4% France, / 4% Others, / 4% Source: INC and DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade database *Processing for pesto sauce **Transit country

17 Walnuts 700, , , , , , ,000 WORLD WALNUT PRODUCTION (INSHELL BASIS, MT) USA China Iran Ukraine Turkey Chile Others YEAR AVERAGE WALNUT EXPORTS (INSHELL BASIS, MT) USA, / 40% Ukraine, / 14% Mexico*, / 10% Chile, / 5% China, / 3% Moldova*, / 5% Turkey, / 2% India, / 4% Romania, / 3% Others, / 13% 5-YEAR AVERAGE WALNUTS IMPORTS (INSHELL BASIS, MT) USA, / 11% Germany, / 9% Japan, / 7% Korea Rep, / 6% Spain, / 5% Canada, / 4% Others, / 59% Source: INC and DESA/UNSD, United Nations Comtrade database

18 Industry Overview supply trends World Tree Nut Production (MT) Source: INC.

19 Industry Overview supply trends World Tree Nut Production (MT) Source: INC.

20 Industry Overview World Tree Nut Production (MT) Kernel basis, except pistachios inshell. Source: INC and The World Bank.

21 Industry Overview World Tree Nut Consumption (MT) Kernel basis, except pistachios inshell. Source: INC and The World Bank.

22 Industry Overview World Tree Nut Production and Supply Value Production (Metric Tons) Supply Value (Million $) Production: Kernel basis, except pistachios inshell. Source: INC.

23 Industry Overview World Tree Nut Supply Value (Million $) Source: INC.

24 Industry Overview Tree Nuts Supply Value/Production (2014) Source: INC.

25 What to watch in Keep an eye on.

26 China Key Impact Areas / Demand: Anti-Corruption programme China. Banquet Gifts Trade channels Pricing (produce and currency). USA pistachio and almond unit values increased 50% from Walnuts increased by 232% Pecan remained steady from , but in we seen an increase of 60%. Health Benefits. Chinese dietary guidelines issued China Nutrition Society The recommend allowance was up to 10 grams tree nuts per day. In 2013 it was still 20% below the recommended allowance.

27 China Traditional producers and consumers, Chestnut s Walnuts Developed Demand / taste. Pistachio Almonds Pecans Macadamia China s tree nut productions share of global production,

28 China USA Sales tree nuts to China and Hong Kong combined. $77 million in 2000 $1,600 million in 2012 U.S. tree nut export to China,

29 China Almonds and Pistachio, 70% of nut sales in 2013 Walnuts 17% Pecan s 8% Hazel 4% Macadamia, cashew, Brazil and mixed nuts 1% Percentage share of the value of U.S tree nut exports to China and Hong Kong, 2013.

30 USA Key Impact Areas - Supply Drought Continues Investment new production stalling California Demand for land in reliable rainfall regions going North! Pricing Currency implications New product innovation starving market price inhibitive? Regulatory FSMA (Food Safety Modernisation Act) gives FDA significant powers Cost to do business increased perceived risk increase

31 Currency - - Euro Fallen Heavily against USD - April April % Fall - AUD Fallen Heavily against USD - April April Watching Brief Impact on Domestic Demand AUS, and European Sales.

32 Next Markets Key Emerging - Supply South America Africa Stability? AUSTRALIA!!! Demand Impact Brazil, India all to come South East Asia just begun. Other targets in the region Health story gets better. We get better at telling the story. Better Pricing, more promotion, more research demand continues to build

33 Actions - Eat More Nuts Grow More Nuts

34 We look forward to seeing you in Antalya! 34

35 Thank you. International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Carrer de la Fruita Seca, 4 Polígon Tecnoparc Reus, Spain T inc@nutfruit.org

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