Over the Top Video Forecasts, Set Top Box Update, and Observations on UHDTV
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1 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 1 Over the Top Video Forecasts, Set Top Box Update, and Observations on UHDTV Lawrence Vanston, Ph.D. President, Technology Futures, Inc. lvanston@tfi.com Research Blvd., Bldg. C-1 Austin, Texas (512) TFI Communications Technology Asset Valuation Conference January 24-25, 2013 Marriott Courtyard Downtown Austin, Texas Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 2
2 CTFG Sponsors OTT and STB Industry Studies Charter Comcast Cox Communications Time Warner Cable Verizon Communications Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 3 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 4
3 Outine Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: The Over the Top Market Chapter 3: Drivers and Constraints Chapter 4: Forecasts Chapter 5: Impacts on Network Assets Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 5 Key Distinctions OTT Users Cord Cutters OTT Minutes OTT Peak Bandwidth Requirements Net Revenue Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 6
4 Digital Video Revenues Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 7 Source: A Big /17/12, Jason Kilar CEO Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 8
5 Hulu Unique Viewers 25 Nielsen Online Video Data 20 Millions Hulu Unique Viewers Sep/Oct 2012 Internet TV Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 9 Netflix Subscribers Subscriptions (Streaming) (Source: Netflix) Millions of Subscribers Unique Viewers (Source: Nielsen) 0 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 10
6 U.S. Online Video Users (with new data) 100% Percentage of TV Viewers 90% 2Q & 3Q % (Too early to detect trend) 70% 60% 50% Change in Nielsen Data Method 40% OTT Users 30% 20% 10% 0% Internet TV 2012b Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 11 Online Video Minutes (Note Scale) (with new data) 10% 9% Percentage of TV Minutes 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2Q & 3Q 2012 (Too early to detect trend) OTT Minutes (OTT Users Only) Change in Nielsen Data Method Internet TV 2012b Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 12
7 Balance of Drivers & Constraints for OTT Adoption Stakeholder Current Future Consumers Technology Oriented Others - 0 Content Owners New and Distributers Established - 0 Television High Capacity - + Access Providers Low Capacity - 0 Overall - + Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 13 Conclusion Regarding Drivers and Constraints Over time constraints will be overcome and drivers will dominate. Substitution, especially cord cutting, will be relatively slow, but significant. Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 14
8 Forecasts Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 15 Scenarios Minimal Cord Cutting Significant ifi Cord Cutting Provider Substitution Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 16
9 Scenario 1: Minimal i Cord Cutting Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 17 U.S. Online Video Users Minimal Cord Cutting 100% 90% Percentage of TV Viewers 80% 70% 60% 50% Change in Nielsen Data Method 40% OTT Users 30% 20% 10% 0% Internet TV 2012 Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 18
10 Online Video Minutes Minimal Cord Cutting 100% Percentage of TV Minutes 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% OTT Minutes 10% (OTT Users Only) 0% Internet TV 2012 Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 19 Online Video Minutes - Minimal Cord Cutting (Alternative Scale) 10% 9% Percentage of TV Minutes 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% OTT Minutes (OTT Users Only) Change in Nielsen Data Method Internet TV 2012 Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 20
11 Impact on Traditional TV - Minimal Cord Cutting Min nutes per Month per TV View wer Traditional TV Minutes OTT Minutes MINIMAL CORD CUTTING SCENARIO Total TV Minutes Historical Data Source: Nielsen Internet TV 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 21 Scenario 2: Significant ifi Cord Cutting Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 22
12 Online Video Users and Cord Cutters 100% 90% Percentage of TV Viewers 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% OTT Users 30% 20% Cord Cutters 10% 0% Internet TV 2012 Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 23 Online Video Minutes Significant Cord Cutting 100% 90% Percentage of TV Minutes 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% OTT Minutes Significant Cord Cutting Scenario Minimal Cord Cutting Scenario Internet TV 2012 Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 24
13 Impact on Traditional TV - Significant Cord Cutting Min nutes per Month per TV View wer Traditional TV Minutes SIGNIFICANT CORD CUTTING SCENARIO Total TV Minutes 2000 OTT Minutes Historical Data Source: Nielsen Internet TV 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 25 Scenario 3: Provider Substitution Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 26
14 Online Video Users with Provider Substitution Percentage of TV Viewers 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% OTT Video Users With Provider Substitution "Cord Cutters" Internet TV 2012 Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 27 Online Video Minutes with Provider Substitution 100% Percentage of TV Minutes 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% OTT Minutes Provider Substitution Scenario Significant Cord Cutting Scenario Minimal Cord Cutting Scenario Internet TV 2012 Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 28
15 Impact on Traditional TV Provider Substitution Min nutes per Month per TV View wer Traditional TV Minutes PROVIDER SUBSTITUTION SCENARIO Total TV Minutes 2000 OTT Minutes Internet TV 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 29 Impact on Traditional TV Users Comparison of Scenarios 100% 90% Percentage of TV Viewers 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% With Provider Substitution With "Cord Cutting" Internet TV 2012 Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 30
16 Impact on Traditional TV Minutes Comparison of Scenarios nutes per Month per TV View wer Mi Traditional TV Minutes With Provider Substitution With Minimal "Cord Cutting" With Significant "Cord Cutting" Internet TV Historical Data Source: Nielsen Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 31 Implications for Network Access Providers Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 32
17 Impact on Telco Low Speed Broadband Assets (i.e. DSL) Average Netflix HD Movie Coded at 2 Mb/s, Top Speed 4.8 Mb/s Growing at 20% implies 4 Mb/s average by 2015 With multiple users per HH, DSL is already non-competitive 10 Mb/s is practical minimum to remain competitive Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 33 U.S. Broadband Households by Nominal Data Rate 100% 90% Percentage of Households s 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% All Broadband Households 6 Mb/s 1.5 Mb/s 24 Mb/s 100 Mb/s & Above 50 Mb/s Data Source: FCC. Speeds are based on DSL & FTTL data. Data excludes mobile wireless broadband Broadband Access 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 34
18 Very Highspeed (VHS) Broadband: Minimum Availability vs Subscribers Pct of Households 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Minimum Required Availability Very- High-Speed Broadband Subscribers VHS = 10 Mb/s and above (sum of the nominal 24 Mb/s, 50 Mb/s and 100 Mb/s and above curves) Broadband Access 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 35 Deployment of Telco VHS Broadband Technologies Middle Scenario Percentage of Access Line es 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% All ILECs Middle Scenario Source: Transforming the Local Exchange Network: Fifth Edition, Lawrence K. Vanston and Ray L. Hodges (2011). Broadband Access Fiber 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 36
19 Impact on Cable TV and Telco VHS Broadband Assets OTT will increase the peak bandwidth that providers will have to engineer throughout their networks. With video, meeting peak demand is critical Example: HFC Cable Run Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 37 HFC Cable Example: Assumptions, Part Homes Passed, 125 Broadband Subscribers, 2.5 TV Viewers per HH 58% OTT Users (YE2011) = 181 OTT Users 3.4% of OTT User TV minutes on OTT (YE2011) ~ Prob OTT User active at Peak >> Six OTT users likely active at Peak >> Design for 11 (YE2011) All very approximate! Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 38
20 Peak Active OTT Users per Node, Significant Cord Cutting Scenario TV Viewers Number per Node Subscribers (HHs) OTT Users Design Simultaneous Active OTT Users at Peak Internet TV 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 39 Peak Active OTT Users per Node, All Scenarios Number per Node Provider Substitution Scenario Significant Cord Cutting Scenario Minimal i Cord Cutting Scenario Internet TV 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 40
21 HFC Cable Example: Assumptions, Part 2 Six OTT users likely active at Peak >> Design for 11 (YE2011) 2 Mb/s streaming per OTT user (YE2011) growing at 20% annually Non-OTT Broadband growing at 30% Add 50% for Overhead and Headroom Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 41 Design Mb/s per 250 Homes Passed 14,000 12,000 Mb/s 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Significant Cord Cutting Scenario Provider Substitution Scenario ,000 Minimal i Cord Cutting Scenario Internet TV 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 42
22 Design Equivalent DOCSYS 3.0 Channels per 250 Homes Passed Significant Cord Cutting Scenario Channels Provider Substitution Scenario 50 Minimal Cord Cutting Scenario Mb/s per DOCSYS 3.0 Channel Internet TV 2012 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 43 Implications for HFC More DOCSYS 3.0 Channels per Node More node splitting i Fiber closer to the home Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 44
23 Impacts on Net Revenue Too early to tell and very complex Losses in subscriptions i could ldbe offset by savings in programming fees, increases in broadband compensation and provider OTT programming revenues Savings from a more efficient network under the Provider Substitution Scenario Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 45 Conclusions regarding Net Revenue Over the long run, net revenue attributable to the network is not going to increase much, if at all, and more likely will fall. Increased network investment will be required to keep up with the demands for OTT and other broadband services. Thus, less future net revenue assignable to existing assets. OTT has increased the economic risk to television access provider assets. Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 46
24 Conclusions Online video and traditional models will co- exist for years More bandwidth (especially peak bandwidth) will be needed Provider substitution could accelerate matters very significantly Major risk factors Major impacts on network assets Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 47 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 48
25 Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 The Set Top Box Market Chapter 3 Technology Substitution and Physical Mortality Chapter 4 Set Top Box Cost and Performance Trends Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 49 Traditional Set Top Box Types Basic - Standard definition boxes without DVR capability (43%) SD DVR - Standard definition boxes with DVR capability (3%) HD Non-DVR - High definition boxes without DVR capability (26%) HD DVRs - High definition boxes with DVR capability (28%) Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 50
26 Set Top Box or Computer? Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 51 HD vs non-hd Set Top Boxes (U.S. Industry) 100% 90% ercentage New Technolog gy P 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% HD vs non-hd Set Top Box 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 52
27 Conventional DVR vs non-dvr Set Top Boxes (U.S. Industry) rcentage New Technolog gy Per 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Conventional DVR 10% vs non-dvr 0% Set Top Box 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 53 Impact of Next Generation Set Top Boxes e New Technology Percentag 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% HD vs non-hd All DVR vs non-dvr Next Generation vs Conventional STB Set Top Box 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 54
28 Life Cycle Curves for Set Top Box Generations Perc centage of Set Top Boxes 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Basic Conventioanal HD DVR SD DVR Next Generation HD Non-DVR Set Top Box 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 55 Historic Set Top Box Price Trends (Industry Average) Percentage $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Conventional HD DVR - 7% SD DVR - 8% HD Non-DVR -7% Basic -13% Set Top Box 2011 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 56
29 Recent Developments Media Server Set Top Boxes Verizon Media Server Now expected early 2013 Streaming IPTV Services AT&T U-VERSE (2006) Verizon XBox (Dec 2011) Time Warner Cable TWC TV for PCs (2012) Windstream Merge for Roku (2012) Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 57 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 58
30 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 59 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 60
31 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 61 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 62
32 UHDTV Update Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 63 View from Super Hi-Vision/ Ultra HDTV Sponsored by NHK 7680 x 4320 lines 60 Frames / Sec Eqv to 16 HDTVs 24 Gb/s uncompressed 128 Mb/s compressed Demos incl CES Planned for homes Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 64
33 UHDTV Status, YE 2012 Standard Approved by ITU in August 2012 Ultra HD selected as umbrella name by CEA 4K UHDTV (2160p): (8.3 megapixels), 4x the pixels of 1080p HDTV. 8K UHDTV (4320p): (33.2 megapixels), 16x the pixels of 1080p HDTV 8K is ~ the detail level of 15/70mm IMAX. 8K called Super Hi-Vision in Japan. 16x9 Aspect Ratio, Up to 120 fps Expanded color space Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 65 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 66
34 US$ 38,000. Only available for preorder in in South Korea. 77 units available. Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 67 Pricing Unknown, Available 2013 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 68
35 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 69 For those who already get low bit rates on Netflix video, this isn't going to be a technology for you, at least for a while. Mind you, by the time bandwidth issues are resolved, 4K UHDTVs might actually be affordable. As a proof of concept, though, this Netflix demo sure does get us excited. Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 70
36 Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 71 UHDTV Tis time to forecast... Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 72
37 (512) Your Bridge to the Future Copyright 2013, Technology Futures, Inc. 73
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