ATLANTIC OCEAN. Tropic of Cancer LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (IN YEARS) 80 and above. Below 60 ATLANTIC OCEAN. Tropic of Cancer

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1 56 The Cultural Landscape FIGURE -3 Life expectancy at birth. Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live. Worldwide, babies born this year are expected to live until their mid-sixties. Life expectancy for babies ranges from the s in several African countries to the 8s in some MDCs ARCTIC ATLANTIC Arctic Circle ARCTIC 5 6 ARABIAN SEA BAY OF BENGAL Equator Equator INDIAN LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (IN YEARS) Tropic of Capricorn CORAL SEA 8 and above ,, 3, MILES Below 6,, 3, KILOMETERS MODIFIED GOODE'S HOMOLOSINE EQUAL-AREA PROJECTION FIGURE -4 Crude death rate (CDR). Crude death rate is the total number of deaths in a year for every, people alive in the society. The global pattern of crude death rates varies from those for the other demographic variables already mapped in this chapter. The demographic transition helps to explain the distinctive distribution of crude death rates ARCTIC ATLANTIC Arctic Circle ARCTIC 5 6 ARABIAN SEA BAY OF BENGAL Equator Equator INDIAN CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER, PERSONS) Tropic of Capricorn CORAL SEA 5 and above ,, 3, MILES Below 5,, 3, KILOMETERS MODIFIED GOODE'S HOMOLOSINE EQUAL-AREA PROJECTION KEY ISSUE 3 Why Is Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries? The Demographic Transition Pyramids Countries in Different Stages of Demographic Transition Demographic Transition and World Growth All countries have experienced some changes in natural increase, fertility, and mortality rates, but at different times and at different rates. Although rates vary among countries, a similar process of change in a society s population, known as the demographic transition, is operating. Because of diverse local cultural and economic conditions, the demographic transition diffuses to individual countries at different rates and produces local variations in natural increase, fertility, and mortality. The Demographic Transition The demographic transition is a process with several stages, and every country is in one of them. The process has a beginning, middle, and end. Historically, once a country has moved from one stage of the process to the next, it has not reverted to an earlier stage. However, a reversal may be occurring in some African countries because of the AIDS epidemic. The four stages are shown in Figure -5. Stage : Low Growth Most of humanity s several-hundred-thousand-year occupancy of Earth was characterized by stage of the demographic transition. Crude birth and death rates varied considerably from

2 Chapter : 57 Crude birth and death rates (per,) 5 3 Stage Stage Stage 3 Stage 4 Low growth Death Natural increase High growth Decreasing growth Low growth FIGURE -5 Demographic transition. The demographic transition consists of four stages: Stage : Very high birth and death rates produce virtually no long-term natural increase. Stage : Rapidly declining death rates combined with very high birth rates produce a very high natural increase. Stage 3: Birth rates rapidly decline, death rates continue to decline, and natural increase rates begin to moderate. Stage 4: Very low birth and death rates produce virtually no long-term natural increase, and possibly a decrease. one year to the next and from one region to another, but over the long term they were roughly comparable, at very high levels. As a result, the NIR was essentially zero, and Earth s population was unchanged, at perhaps a half-million. During most of this period, people depended on hunting and gathering for food (see Chapter ). When food was easily obtained, a region s population increased, but it declined when people were unable to locate enough animals or vegetation nearby. About the year 8, the world s population began to grow by several thousand per year. Between 8 BC and AD 75, Earth s human population increased from approximately 5 million to 8 million (Figure -6). The burst of population growth around 8 BC was caused by the agricultural revolution, which was the time when human beings first domesticated plants and animals and no longer relied entirely on hunting and gathering. By growing plants and raising animals, human beings created larger and more stable sources of food, so more people could survive. Despite the agricultural revolution, the human population remained in stage of the demographic transition because food supplies were still unpredictable. Farmers prospered in regions with abundant harvests, and the population expanded, but when unfavorable climatic conditions resulted in low food production, the CDR would soar. War and disease also took their toll in stage societies. Most of human history was spent in stage of the demographic transition, but today no such country remains there. Every nation has moved on to at least stage of the demographic transition, and, with that transition, has experienced profound changes in population. Birth Stage : High Growth For nearly, years after the agricultural revolution, world population grew at a modest pace. After around 3 Natural increase rate (%) (billions) , the world s population suddenly began to grow ten times faster than in the past. The average annual increase jumped from about.5 percent (one-twentieth of percent) to.5 percent (one-half of percent). World population grew by about 5 million in 8, compared to only about one-half million in 75. The sudden burst of population growth occurred in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries because several countries moved on to stage of the demographic transition. In stage of the demographic transition, the CDR suddenly plummets, while the CBR remains roughly the same as in stage. Because the difference between the CBR and CDR is suddenly very high, the NIR is also very high, and population grows rapidly. Some demographers divide stage of the demographic transition into two parts. The first part is the period of accelerating population growth. During the second part, the growth rate begins to slow, although the gap between births and deaths remains high. Countries entered stage of the demographic transition after 75 as a result of the Industrial Revolution, which began in England in the late eighteenth century and spread to the European continent and North America during the nineteenth century. The Industrial Revolution was a conjunction of major improvements in industrial technology (invention of the steam engine, mass production, powered Era, BC-8 BC 8 BC- AD AD BC population 5, NIR (annual %) Doubling time (years) 59,7,345, Year FIGURE -6 growth through history. Through most of human history population growth was virtually nil. increased rapidly beginning in the eighteenth century. BC population 6,8,, 95 population,56,, 9 population,656,, 85 population,66,, 8 population 985,, AD population 3,, AD

3 58 The Cultural Landscape transportation) that transformed the process of manufacturing goods and delivering them to market (see Chapter ). The result of this transformation was an unprecedented level of wealth, some of which was used to make communities healthier places to live. New machines helped farmers increase agricultural production and feed the rapidly growing population. More efficient agriculture freed people to work in factories, producing other goods and generating enough food for the industrial workers. The wealth produced by the Industrial Revolution was also used to improve sanitation and personal hygiene. Sewer systems were installed in cities, and food and water supplies were protected against contamination. As a result of these public improvements, people were healthier and therefore lived longer. Countries in Europe and North America entered stage of the demographic transition about 8, but stage did not diffuse to most countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America until around 95. With the diffusion of stage of the demographic transition, world population grew by.7 percent per year during the second half of the twentieth century, compared to.5 percent per year during the nineteenth century. The world added about 8 million people in, compared to 8 million in 9. Countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America moved on to stage of the demographic transition during the second half of the twentieth century for a different reason than was the case for Europe and North America years earlier. The latetwentieth-century push of countries into stage was caused by the medical revolution. Medical technology invented in Europe and North America diffused to LDCs in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Improved medical practices suddenly eliminated many of the traditional causes of death in LDCs and enabled more people to experience longer and healthier lives. Stage 3: Moderate Growth A country moves from stage to stage 3 of the demographic transition when the CBR begins to drop sharply. The CDR continues to fall in stage 3 but at a much slower rate than in stage. The population continues to grow because the CBR is still greater than the CDR. But the rate of natural increase is more modest in countries in stage 3 than in those in stage because the gap between the CBR and the CDR narrows. European and North American countries generally moved from stage to stage 3 of the demographic transition during the first half of the twentieth century. Most countries in Asia and Latin America have moved to stage 3 in recent years, while most African countries remain in stage. The sudden drop in the CBR during stage 3 occurs for different reasons than the rapid decline of the CDR during stage. The CDR declined in stage following the introduction of new technology into the society, but the CBR declines in stage 3 because of changes in social customs. A society enters stage 3 of the demographic transition when people have fewer children. The decision is partly a delayed reaction to a decline in mortality, especially the IMR. In stage societies, the survival of any one infant could not be confidently predicted, and families typically had a large number of babies so as to improve the chances of some surviving to adulthood. Medical practices introduced in stage societies greatly improved the probability of infant survival, but many years elapsed before families reacted by conceiving fewer babies. Economic changes in stage 3 societies also induce people to have fewer offspring. People in stage 3 societies are more likely to live in cities rather than in the countryside and to work in offices, shops, or factories rather than on farms. Farmers often consider a large family to be an asset because children can do some of the chores. In contrast, children living in cities are generally not economic assets to their parents, because they are prohibited from working in most types of urban jobs. In addition, urban homes are relatively small and may not have space to accommodate large families. Stage 4: Low Growth A country reaches stage 4 of the demographic transition when the CBR declines to the point where it equals the CDR, and the NIR approaches zero (Figure -7). This condition is called zero population growth (ZPG), a term often applied to stage 4 countries. ZPG may occur when the CBR is still slightly higher than the CDR, because some females die before reaching childbearing years, and the number of females in their childbearing years can vary. To account for these discrepancies, demographers more precisely define ZPG as the TFR that results in a lack of change in the total population over a long term. A TFR of approximately. produces ZPG, although a country that receives many immigrants may need a lower TFR to achieve ZPG. Countries in stage 4 of the demographic transition can be identified on the map of total fertility rate (Figure -). Most European countries have reached stage 4 of the demographic transition because they have TFRs well below the ZPG replacement level of.. In the United States, the TFR has hovered around ZPG since. Social customs again explain the movement from one stage of the demographic transition to the next. Increasingly, women in stage 4 societies enter the labor force rather than remain at home as full-time homemakers. When most families lived on farms, employment and child rearing were conducted at the same place, but in urban societies most parents must leave the home to work in an office, shop, or factory. An employed parent must arrange for someone to take care of their preschoolage children during working hours. Changes in lifestyle also encourage smaller families. People who have access to a wider variety of birth-control methods are more likely to use some of them. With increased income and leisure time, more people participate in entertainment and recreation activities that may not be suitable for young children, such as attending cultural events, traveling overseas, going to bars, and eating at upscale restaurants. Several Eastern European countries, most notably Russia, have negative NIRs, meaning that the number of deaths exceeds the number of births (refer to Figure -9). Eastern Europe s relatively high death rates and low birth rates are a legacy of a half-century of Communist rule. Higher death rates may be a result of inadequate pollution controls and inaccurate reporting by the Communists. Lower birth rates may stem from

4 Chapter : 59 FIGURE -7 Demographic transition for England. England provides a good case study of the long-term impact of the demographic transition. It has reached stage 4, and at least fragmentary information on its population is available for the past, years. Further, unlike the United States and many other countries, England has not changed its boundaries, nor has it been affected by migration of enough people to affect national trends. Stage : Demographers must estimate birth and death rates prior to 75 because precise records are not available. Church parish records of births, baptisms, marriages, and burials help 3 in making estimates. In 66, when the Normans invaded England, the country s population was approximately million. Seven hundred years later, the population was only 6 million, and the country was still in stage of the demographic transition. During that 7-year period, the population rose in some years and fell in others. For example, England s population declined from 4 million in the year 5 to million a century later after the Black Death (bubonic plague) and famines swept the country. As recently as the 7s, the CDR skyrocketed following a series of bad harvests. Stage : In 75, the CBR and CDR in England were both per,. In 8, the CBR remained very high at 34, but the CDR had plummeted to. This 5-year period marked the start of the Industrial Revolution in England. New production techniques increased the nation s food supply and generated money that was spent on improvements in public health. England remained in stage of the demographic transition for about 5 years. During that period the population rose from 6 million to 3 million, an average annual NIR of.4 percent. Stage 3: After 88 England entered stage 3 of the demographic transition. The CBR declined sharply over the next century, while the CDR continued to fall somewhat. The population increased between 88 and 97 from 6 million to 49 million, about.7 percent per year. Stage 4: England has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the early 97s. The CBR has varied between and 4 per,; the CDR has varied between and. Crude birth and death rates (per,) 5 Stage Stage Stage 3 Stage 4 Birth Death Natural Increase Years The CBR increases slightly in some years because the number of women in their childbearing years is greater, not because of decisions by women to have more children. The TFR has long been well below the. needed for replacement. England s population has grown by 3 million since 97, primarily because of immigration from former colonies. When England began to progress through the demographic transition around 75, the country had 6 million people, crude birth and death rates of per,, and a record of little population growth over the previous 7 years. For the past three decades, England has been in another period of little population growth. The difference is that the crude birth and death rates are now around rather than, and the country has 53 million inhabitants instead of 6 million. 5 3 Total population (millions) NIR very strong family-planning programs and deep-seated pessimism about having children in an uncertain world. As memories of the Communist era fade, Russians and other Eastern Europeans may display birth and death rates more comparable to those in Western Europe. Alternatively, demographers in the future may identify a fifth stage of the demographic transition, characterized by higher death rates than birth rates and an irreversible population decline. A country that has passed through all four stages of the demographic transition has in some ways completed a cycle from little or no natural increase in stage, to little or no natural increase in stage 4. Two crucial demographic differences underlie this process, however. First, at the beginning of the demographic transition, the CBRs and CDRs are high 35 to per, whereas at the end of the process the rates are very low, approximately per,. Second, the total population of the country is much higher in stage 4 than in stage. Pyramids A country s stage of demographic transition gives it a distinctive population structure. in a country is influenced by the demographic transition in two principal ways the percentage of the population in each age group and the distribution of males and females. A country s population can be displayed by age and gender groups on a bar graph called a population pyramid. A population pyramid normally shows the percentage of the total population in 5-year age groups, with the youngest group ( to 4 years old) at the base of the pyramid and the oldest group at the top. The length of the bar represents the percentage of the total population contained in that group. By convention, males are usually shown on the left side of the pyramid and females on the right. The shape of a pyramid is determined primarily by the CBR in the community. A country in stage of the demographic transition, with a high CBR, has a relatively large number of young children, making the base of the population pyramid very broad. On the other hand, a country in stage 4, with a relatively large number of older people, has a graph with a wider top that looks more like a rectangle than a pyramid. Age Distribution The age structure of a population is extremely important in understanding similarities and differences among countries. The most important factor is the dependency ratio, which is

5 6 The Cultural Landscape the number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years. The larger the percentage of dependents, the greater the financial burden on those who are working to support those who cannot. To compare the dependency ratios of different countries, we can divide the population into three age groups to 4, 5 to 64, and 65 and older. People who are 4 years of age and 65-plus are normally classified as dependents. Nearly one-half of all people living in countries in stage of the demographic transition are dependents, compared to only one-third in stage 4 countries. Consequently, the dependency ratio is nearly : in stage countries, whereas in stage 4 countries the ratio is : (one dependent for every two workers). Young dependents outnumber elderly ones by : in stage countries, but the numbers of young and elderly dependents are roughly equal in stage 4 countries. More than percent of the people are under age 5 in sub-saharan Africa, compared to percent or less in Europe and North America (Figure -8). The large percentage of children in sub-saharan Africa strains the ability of these relatively poor countries to provide needed services such as schools, hospitals, and day-care centers. When children reach the age of leaving school, jobs must be found for them, but the government must continue to allocate scarce resources to meet the needs of the still growing number of young people. As countries pass through the stages of the demographic transition, the percentage of elderly people increases. The higher percentage partly reflects the lower percentage of young people produced by declining CBRs. Older people also benefit in stage 4 countries from improved medical care and higher incomes. People over age 65 comprise 6 percent of the population in Europe compared to 3 percent in sub-saharan Africa. Older people must receive adequate levels of income and medical care after they retire from their jobs. The graying of the population places a burden on European and North American governments to meet these needs. More than one-fourth of all government expenditures in the United States, Canada, Japan, and many European countries go to Social Security, health care, and other programs for the older population. Because of the larger percentage of older people, countries in stages 3 and 4 of the demographic transition, such as the United States and Sweden, have higher CDRs than do stage countries. Sex Ratio The number of males per hundred females in the population is the sex ratio. It varies among countries, depending on birth and death rates. In general, slightly more males than females are born, but males have higher death rates. The ratio of men to women is about 93: (that is, 93 men for each women) in Europe and 97: in North America. In LDCs, the ratio is 3:. In the United States, males under age 5 exceed females 5:. Women start outnumbering men at about age, and they comprise 58 percent of the population over age 65. In stage countries, the high mortality rate during childbirth partly explains the lower percentage of women. The difference also relates to the age structure, because stage countries have a larger percentage of young people where males generally outnumber females and a lower percentage of older people, where females are much more numerous. 8 ARCTIC 7 ARCTIC Arctic Circle ATLANTIC 6 ARABIAN SEA BAY OF BENGAL Equator INDIAN PERSONS UNDER AGE 5 (%) CORAL SEA and above Tropic of Capricorn Below ,, 3, MILES 8,, 3, KILOMETERS MODIFIED GOODE'S HOMOLOSINE EQUAL-AREA PROJECTION FIGURE -8 Percent of population under age 5. A map of the percentage of people over age 65 would show a reverse pattern, with the highest percentages in Europe and the lowest in sub-saharan Africa and the Middle East.

6 Chapter : 6 The shape of a community s population pyramid tells a lot about its distinctive character, especially compared with other places. In Figure -9, compare the shapes of the overall U.S. population pyramid with those for Cedar Rapids, Detroit, Honolulu, and Laredo. Cedar Rapids and Honolulu have relatively flat pyramids; Detroit and Laredo have relatively broad-based ones. The different shapes result from differences in the ethnic composition of the four cities. Detroit and Laredo have relatively broad-based pyramids because birth rates are relatively high among African Americans and Hispanic Americans, who form the majority in these two cities. On the other hand, birth rates are relatively low among the Asian American and European-descended communities, the majorities in Honolulu and Cedar Rapids, respectively. The population pyramid for Naples, where 4 percent of the people are over age 65, resembles an upside-down pyramid. Unalaska, a small town with a military base, has an exceptionally high percentage of males, whereas Naples, with a large percentage of elderly people, has substantially more females than males because females have longer life expectancies. Cities with large universities, such as Lawrence, have an exceptionally high percentage of people in their twenties. See the Contemporary Geographic Tools box for information on collecting statistics about a country s population. Countries in Different Stages of Demographic Transition Countries display distinctive population characteristics depending on their stage in the demographic transition. No country today remains in stage of the demographic transition, but it is instructive to compare countries in each of the other three stages. Let us look at three case studies of countries in stages, 3, and 4. Cape Verde: Stage (High Growth) Cape Verde, a collection of ten small islands in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of West Africa, moved from stage to stage about 95. Cape Verde was a colony of Portugal until it became independent in 975, and the Portuguese administrators left better records of births and deaths than are typical for a colony in stage USA Honolulu, HI (66% Asian-American and/or Native Hawaiian) Unalaska, AK (7% Male) (9% White) Cedar Rapids, IA Lawrence, KS (College town) During the first half of the twentieth century, Cape Verde s population declined, from 47, in 9 to 37, in 949. CBRs were generally in the forties and CDRs in the twenties (Figure -). The large gap between births and deaths most years produced a high NIR typical of stage of the demographic transition, yet Cape Verde remained in stage until 95 because several severe famines dramatically disrupted the typical patterns of birth, death, and natural increase. For example, famine made Cape Verde s CDR rocket to 74 per, in 94 and in 94. Because fewer babies were conceived at the height of the famine in 94, the CBR fell in 943 to only. also declined during periods of famine because survivors migrated to other countries. Wide fluctuations in the crude birth and death Detroit, MI (8% African-American) Laredo, TX (94% Hispanic) Naples, FL (4% over age 65) FIGURE -9 pyramids for the United States and selected communities. Detroit and Laredo have broader pyramids than Cedar Rapids and Honolulu, indicating higher percentages of young people and higher fertility rates. Unalaska has a high percentage of males because it contains an isolated military base. Lawrence has a high percentage of people in their twenties because it is the home of the University of Kansas. Naples has a high percentage of elderly people, especially women, so its pyramid is upside down.

7 CONTEMPORARY GEOGRAPHIC TOOLS Spatial Analysis and the Census Geography relies on statistical data to conduct spatial analysis. The single most important data source for human geographers is the census (Figure -). Many of the maps of the United States or portions of the country found in this book rely on census data. In the United States, a census of population and a census of housing take place once a decade, in years ending in zero, including. Censuses of various types of businesses are undertaken once every 5 years. Canada, the United Kingdom, and a number of other countries once ruled by the British take the census every years, in years ending in, including. A census of all humanity has never been held. In 995, the United Nations called for all member states to hold a census within a decade, but many countries did not comply. Despite its importance, the census is controversial in many countries, for two reasons. First, many people fear that participating in the census will harm them. Two examples: In China, an estimated million were missed in because people allegedly didn t want to report that they had more than one child, in violation of the country s one-child policy (see Case Study Revisited later in this chapter). FIGURE - Taking the census. Homeless people sleeping in New York City s Penn Station are counted by a census taker. In the United States, homeless people, ethnic minorities, and citizens of other countries without proper immigration documents may be less likely to complete the census form. These individuals may fear that the Bureau of the Census could turn over the forms to another government agency, such as the FBI or the Department of Homeland Security. The second controversy is how to account for the people who are missed by the census. Geographers, census bureau officials, and others interested in spatial analysis are able to apply statistical sampling techniques to get a more accurate count, as well as to identify detailed characteristics of people, housing, and businesses. Sampling is routinely applied to the British census to improve its accuracy, but it has proved controversial in the United States. The method of counting matters in the United States, because the district boundaries of the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as of the 5 state legislatures, must be redrawn every decade in accordance with the census. Also, the U.S. and state governments allocate many types of funds to communities on the basis of population. Politicians sympathetic to the needs of the homeless and immigrants have been especially vocal in support of sampling, whereas those from other constituencies are more inclined to oppose it. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that Article, Section of the U.S. Constitution prevents using statistical techniques to apportion seats. Otherwise, spatial patterns and trends are analyzed using statistically valid samples. rates from one year to the next, depending on economic and environmental conditions, are typical of stage countries. This long-term pattern of demographic uncertainty suddenly ended in 95, and Cape Verde quickly moved to stage of the demographic transition. Since entering stage a half-century ago, the population of Cape Verde has surged to 47,, and natural increase has averaged more than. percent per year. Cape Verde moved into stage when an antimalarial campaign was launched. The CDR dropped by around 6 percent in just one year, between 949 and 95, and another 7 percent in the half-century since then. Meanwhile, as is typical of stage countries, Cape Verde s CBR has remained relatively high and still fluctuates wildly. 6

8 Chapter : Stage Stage Birth and death rates (per,) 5 3 Natural Increase Birth Death 5 (thousand) NIR FIGURE - Demographic transition and population pyramid for Cape Verde. Cape Verde entered stage of the demographic transition in approximately 95, as indicated by the large gap between birth and death rates since then. As is typical of countries in stage of the demographic transition, Cape Verde has a population pyramid with a very wide base. The wild fluctuations in Cape Verde s CBR are a legacy of the severe famine during the 9s. Birth rates were lower during the 96s because Cape Verde had relatively few women in their twenties, the prime childbearing years. Women in their twenties during the 96s would have been born during the 9s, when the famine kept birth rates very low. Similarly, declining birth rates during the 99s reflected the small number of women in prime childbearing years, who would have been born during the 96s and 97s. Conversely, the higher birth rates in the 95s and 98s resulted from a larger number of women in their childbearing years. The population pyramid shows that Cape Verde has a large number of females age 5 4 who will soon start moving into their prime childbearing years. For Cape Verde to enter stage 3 of the demographic transition during the next decade, these females must bear considerably fewer children than did their mothers. Chile: Stage 3 (Moderate Growth) Chile provides an example of a country outside Europe and North America that has reached stage 3 of the demographic transition but is likely to take some time before continuing to stage 4 (Figure -). Chile has changed from a predominantly rural society based on agriculture to an urban society in which most people now work in factories, offices, and shops. However, many Chileans still have large families. Like most countries outside Europe and North America, Chile entered the twentieth century still in stage of the demographic Birth and death rates (per,) 5 3 Stage Stage Stage 3 Death Natural Increase Birth (millions) NIR FIGURE - Demographic transition and population pyramid for Chile. Chile entered stage of the demographic transition in the 93s, when death rates declined sharply, and stage 3 in the 96s, when birth rates declined sharply.

9 64 The Cultural Landscape 9 8 Stage Stage Stage 3 Stage Birth and death rates (per,) 5 3 Natural Increase Birth Death 5 4 (millions) NIR FIGURE -3 Demographic transition and population pyramid for Denmark. Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition and has experienced virtually no change in total population since the 97s. The population pyramid is much straighter than that of Cape Verde and that of Chile, a reflection of the relatively large percentage of elderly people and small percentage of children transition. had grown modestly during the nineteenth century at a NIR of less than percent per year. However, much of Chile s population growth as in other countries in the Western Hemisphere resulted from European immigration. Chile s CDR declined sharply in the 93s, moving the country into stage of the demographic transition. As elsewhere in Latin America, Chile s CDR was lowered by the infusion of medical technology from MDCs such as the United States, bringing under control such diseases as smallpox, malaria, and dysentery. Chile has been in stage 3 of the demographic transition since the 96s. The CDR continued to decline more modestly than in the past, while the CBR dropped sharply. Chile moved on to stage 3 of the demographic transition primarily because of a vigorous government family-planning policy, initiated in 966. Reduced income and high unemployment at that time also induced couples to postpone marriage and delay childbearing. Although Chile s NIR is lower today than in the 95s, the country is unlikely to move into stage 4 of the demographic transition in the near future. Chile s government reversed its policy and renounced support for family planning during the 97s. The government policy was that population growth could help promote national security and economic development. Further reduction in the CBR is also hindered by the fact that most Chileans belong to the Roman Catholic Church, which opposes the use of what it calls artificial birth-control techniques. Denmark: Stage 4 (Low Growth) Denmark, like most European countries, has reached stage 4 of the demographic transition. The country entered stage in the nineteenth century, when the CDR began its permanent decline. The CBR then dropped in the late nineteenth century, and the country moved on to stage 3 (Figure -3). Since the 97s the CBR and the CDR have been roughly equal, at around per year. The country has reached ZPG, and the population is increasing almost entirely because of immigration. Denmark s population pyramid shows the impact of the demographic transition. Instead of a classic pyramid shape, Denmark has a column, demonstrating that the percentages of young and elderly people are nearly the same. With further medical advances, the number of elderly people may actually exceed the number of young people in a few years. Denmark s CDR has actually increased somewhat in recent years because of the increasing number of elderly people. The CDR is unlikely to decline unless another medical revolution, such as a cure for cancer, keeps older elderly people alive much longer (see the Global Forces, Local Impacts box). Demographic Transition and World Growth Worldwide population increased rapidly during the second half of the twentieth century because few countries were in the two stages of the demographic transition that have low population growth no country remains in stage, and few have reached stage 4. The overwhelming majority of countries are in either stage or stage 3 of the demographic transition stages with rapid population growth and only a few are likely to reach stage 4 in the near future. The four-stage demographic transition is characterized by two big breaks with the past. The first break the sudden drop in the death rate that comes from technological innovation has been accomplished everywhere. The second break the sudden drop in the birth rate that comes from changing social customs has yet to be achieved in many countries.

10 GLOBAL FORCES, LOCAL IMPACTS Japan s Decline Japan is the most populous country outside Europe and North America to reach stage 4 of the demographic transition. Japan has a NIR of approximately zero because crude birth and death rates are nearly equal. Its TFR of.4 is well below the replacement rate of approximately.. Japan s population is expected to decline from an all-time peak of 8 million in 6 to 9 million in 5 and 95 million in 5 (Figure -4). With the population decline will come an increasing percentage of elderly people. Japan s current percentage of persons over age 65 percent is higher than in any other country, and nearly double the percentage under age 5. Unlike Japan, the United States is expecting an increase in population during the twenty-first century. A low NIR in the United States will probably be offset by large-scale immigration from countries in Latin America and Asia still in stage or 3 (see Chapter 3). Japan, on the other hand, has discouraged immigration from nearby countries in Asia. Japanese society, having placed a high value on social conformity for thousands of years, does not welcome outsiders from other cultural traditions. With few immigrants compared to other stage 4 societies, Japan faces a severe shortage of workers. Rather than increasing immigration, Japan is addressing the labor force shortage primarily by encouraging more Japanese people to work, especially older people and women. Programs make it more attractive for older people to continue working, to receive more healthcare services at home instead of in hospitals, and to borrow against the value of their homes to pay for health care. In the long run, more women in the labor force may translate into an even lower birth rate and therefore an even lower NIR in the future. Rather than combine work with child rearing, Japanese women are expected to make a stark choice: either marry and raise children or remain single and work. According to the 5 census, the majority has chosen the work option: More than half of women in the prime childbearing years of to 34 are not married FIGURE -4 Japan s changing population pyramid. Japan s population pyramid has shifting from a broad base in 95 to a rectangular shape. In the future, the bottom of the pyramid is expected to contract and the top to expand. If most countries in Europe and North America have reached or at least are approaching stage 4 of the demographic transition, why aren t countries elsewhere in the world? The answer is that fundamental problems prevent other countries from replicating the experience in Europe and North America. The first demographic change the sudden decline in CDR occurred for different reasons in the past. The nineteenth-century decline in the CDR in Europe and North America took place in conjunction with the Industrial Revolution. The unprecedented level of wealth generated by the Industrial Revolution was used in part to stimulate research by European and North American scientists into the causes and cures for diseases. These studies ultimately led to medical advances, such as pasteurization, X-rays, penicillin, and insecticides. 65

11 66 The Cultural Landscape In contrast, the sudden drop in the CDR in Africa, Asia, and Latin America in the twentieth century was accomplished by different means and with less internal effort by local citizens. For example, the CDR on the island of Sri Lanka (then known as Ceylon) plummeted 43 percent between 946 and 947. The most important reason for the sharp drop was the use of the insecticide DDT to control the mosquitoes that spread malaria. European and North American countries invented and manufactured the DDT and trained the experts to supervise its use. The spraying of Sri Lankans houses and other medical services, which cost only $ per person per year, were paid for primarily by international organizations. Thus Sri Lanka s CDR was reduced by nearly one-half in a single year with no change in the country s economy or culture. Medical technology was injected from Europe and North America instead of arising within the country as part of an economic revolution. This pattern has been repeated throughout Latin America, Asia, and Africa. Having caused the first break with the past through diffusion of medical technology, European and North American countries now urge other countries to complete the second break with the past the reduction in the birth rate. However, reducing the CBR is more difficult. A decline in the CDR can be induced through introduction of new technology by outsiders, but the CBR will drop only when people decide for themselves to have fewer children. Many LDCs, especially in Asia and Latin America, have moved in recent years to stage 3 of the demographic transition thanks to rapidly declining birth rates. Other countries, especially in Africa, have not yet made this second break with the past and in some cases may be slipping back into stage. In the past, stage of the demographic transition lasted for approximately years in Europe and North America, but today s stage countries are being asked to move through to stage 3 in much less time in order to curtail population growth. When European and North American countries were in stage, the global population was increasing by only about 6 million per year, compared to 8 million per year now. KEY ISSUE 4 Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? Malthus On Overpopulation Declining Birth Rates World Health Threats Why does global population growth matter? In view of the current size of Earth s population and the NIR, will there soon be too many of us? Will continued population growth lead to global starvation, war, and a lower quality of life? Geographers are particularly well suited to address these questions because answers require understanding both human behavior and the physical environment. Further, geographers observe that diverse local cultural and environmental conditions may produce different answers in different places. 6 (billions) Resources Year FIGURE -5 Malthus s theory. Malthus expected population to grow more rapidly than food production. Malthus on Overpopulation English economist Thomas Malthus ( ) was one of the first to argue that the world s rate of population increase was far outrunning the development of food supplies. In An Essay on the Principle of, published in 798, Malthus claimed that the population was growing much more rapidly than Earth s food supply because population increased geometrically, whereas food supply increased arithmetically (Figure -5). According to Malthus, these growth rates would produce the following relationships between people and food in the future: