Water availability across the Murray-Darling Basin. Francis Chiew
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1 Water availability across the Murray-Darling Basin Francis Chiew Water and Energy Cycle of the Murray-Darling Basin Workshop University of New South Wales, Sydney 6 7 April 2009
2 Presentation outline Water resources issues and challenges Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields (MDBSY) Project Modelling historical, recent and future runoff across the Murray-Darling Basin River system modelling and impact on water users in managed river systems Runoff, streamflow and water availability Summary
3 1891/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /97 99/ / /06 Annual Inflow (GL/year) Water resources issues and challenges Global and Australian climate is becoming warmer River Murray Inflows to 2008 (excluding Darling inflows and Snowy releases) Average pre ,268 GL Average post ,620 GL 50% less Prolonged drought across south-east Australia Water resources are fully committed Demand for water from competing users is increasing. Water resources availability is likely to decline (due to climate and other drivers). Water sharing and governance between Commonwealth and States.
4 Australian hydroclimates are different Australia is drier and less of its rainfall becomes runoff. Australian river flows are more variable than elsewhere in the world. As a result, Australia requires bigger storages, and droughts in Australia are more severe than elsewhere in the world. The ENSO-streamflow teleconnection in Australia is amongst the strongest in the world. This offers potential for forecasting hydroclimate several months to several years ahead. low variability medium variability high variability x little ENSO-runoff teleconnection significant ENSO-runoff teleconnection
5 MDBSY Project terms of reference Water Summit, November 2006 PM and First Ministers CSIRO to report progressively through to 2008 on sustainable yields of surface and groundwater systems within the MDB. Estimate current and likely future (~2030) water availability in each catchment/aquifer and for the entire MDB considering (i) climate change and other risks and (ii) surface-groundwater interactions. Compare the estimated current and future water availability to that required to meet the current levels of extractive water use. Numerous results, presented in various forms, now being used to help develop the next round of MDB water sharing plans.
6 MDBSY Project overview of methods For the first time, a consistent modelling across the entire MDB to estimate current and future water availability (including surface and groundwater interactions), and impacts given current level of use and water sharing rules.
7 Rainfall-runoff modelling across Murray-Darling Basin Modelling at 0.05 o x 0.05 o grid cells using lumped conceptual daily rainfallrunoff models. Model calibrated against daily streamflow data from 1975 to 2006 from 183 unimpaired catchments. Optimised parameter values from closest calibration catchment used to model runoff in ungauged grid cells. Future runoff modelled using future climate series with same parameter values.
8 SIMHYD (mm/yr) RS (mm/yr) Mean annual runoff estimated by SIMHYD, Sacramento and remote sensing SIMHYD Sacramento Remote sensing RMSE=70 mm/yr NSE= RMSE = 66 mm/yr NSE = Observed (mm/yr) Observed (mm/yr)
9 Improving runoff estimation from rainfall-runoff models for ungauged catchments Uncertainty in runoff estimates can be reduced by output averaging of results from multiple donor catchments (model ensemble). Research areas for improving runoff estimation in ungauged catchments include: - better methods for choosing donor catchments and models (spatial proximity, physical similarity, integrated similarity, flow characteristics); - using new data types to adapt model structure and to calibrate models (e.g., MODIS-LAI and remotely-sensed ET and soil moisture); - optimising over the entire region or system using all available data and using appropriate weights to choose donor catchments and models; and - improved consideration of uncertainty in input data, calibration data and model structure. The research studies can and should provide explicit quantifications of uncertainty in the modelling results.
10 mean annual rainfall and runoff RAINFALL 457 mm averaged over MDB RUNOFF 27 mm averaged over MDB There is a clear east west rainfall and runoff gradient, with most of the runoff in the MDB coming from upland catchments in the south-east.
11 Recent ( ) rainfall and runoff relative to long-term means Percent difference ( relative to ) Rainfall Rainfall Runoff
12 Average recurrence interval of rainfall and runoff Average recurrence interval (years) Rainfall Runoff
13 Monthly runoff (mm) Monthly rainfall (mm) rainfall and runoff in southern Murray-Darling Basin Recent runoff is a lot lower than similar dry periods in the past. Likely reasons include: autumn and early winter rainfall is disproportionately lower, translating to significantly lower winter runoff when most of the runoff occurs. Lack of any high rainfall years in Temperatures are higher in current drought, accentuating the impact on runoff. Percentage difference from long-term mean Rainfall Runoff % -39 % % -22 % % -31 % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Connectivity with subsurface system may have been lost and significant diffused rainfall recharge is needed to re-establish connection for subsurface runoff to occur Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
14 Future (~2030) climate Two types of uncertainties in future climate projections considered (i) greenhouse gas emission and associated global warming; and (ii) GCM modelling of local rainfall response to global warming year daily rainfall (and climate) variants, informed by 15 GCMs for three global warming projections. Percentage change in rainfall (and climate) used to scale 1895 to 2006 historical daily rainfall (and climate) series. Different scaling factors used for the four seasons. Changes in daily rainfall distribution also considered.
15 Percentage change in future mean annual rainfall and runoff (~2030 relative to ~1990) RAINFALL RUNOFF
16 Number of modelling results showing decrease/increase in runoff There is large uncertainty in the results. The majority of results show a decrease in runoff. Most results indicate that future winter runoff will be lower across the MDB. Most of the runoff in southern MDB occur in winter, and almost all the results indicate less winter runoff there.
17 Future (~2030) runoff relative to historical ( ) runoff Averaged across the MDB, the median estimate is a 10 percent decrease in mean annual runoff. Averaged across the MDB, the extreme dry and extreme wet estimates range from a 33 percent decrease to a 16 percent increase in mean annual runoff.
18 Water balance and water use in managed river systems Management and water sharing rules Environment Floodplain losses Irrigation S-GW gains/losses Storages End-ofsystem flow Runoff
19 Surface and groundwater models used in MDBSY Paroo IQQM Warrego IQQM Nebine IQQM Lower Balonne IQQM Barwon-Darling IQQM St George SGCS13NT Middle Condamine IQQM Menindee IQQM Bidgee IQQM Lower Bidgee MODFLOW Murray BigMod Murray MSM Eastern Mt Lofty Ranges 6*WATERCRESS Southern Riverine Plains MODFLOW Wimmera REALM Daily Weekly Monthly Avoca REALM GSM REALM Ovens REALM Mid Bidgee MODFLOW Condamine MODFLOW Upper Condamine IQQM Border Rivers MODFLOW Bord Riv and Mac B IQQM Moonie IQQM Lower Gwydir MODFLOW Gwydir IQQM Upper Namoi MODFLOW Peel IQQM Namoi IQQM Lower Namoi MODFLOW Macq-Castlereagh 6*IQQM Macquarie MODFLOW Lachlan IQQM Mid-Lachlan MODFLOW Lower Lachlan MODFLOW Snowy SIM_V9 ACTEW REALM Upper Bidgee IQQM
20 Surface water availability across the MDB Current surface water availability Median climate change impact on future water availability
21 Average water availability (GL/y) Impact of climate change on water availability Median impact is an 11 percent reduction in water availability (~2500 GL/year) 2,000 Historical climate 6,000 1,500 Median 2030 climate 4,500 1,000 3, , Barwon-Darling Moonie Eastern Mount Lofty Ranges Wimmera Campaspe Loddon-Avoca Warrego Paroo Gwydir Namoi Lachlan Border Rivers Condamine-Balonne Macquarie-Castlereagh Ovens Goulburn-Broken Murrumbidgee Murray
22 Change under median 2030 climate (%) Impact sharing for median 2030 climate 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Surface water availability Surface water diversions -25% Paroo Warrego Condamine-Balonne Moonie Border Rivers Gwydir Namoi Macquarie-Castlereagh Barwon-Darling Lachlan Murrumbidgee Murray Ovens Goulburn-Broken Campaspe Loddon-Avoca Wimmera Eastern Mount Lofty Ranges
23 Estimating future water availability: methods and research questions How will the future climate look like? Climate science and climate change science Informed by GCMs (which GCMs?, which emission/global warming?, uncertainty, etc ) Historical catchmentscale climate Rainfall-runoff modelling to estimate runoff River system and groundwater modelling to estimate water availability for users across managed systems Simple scaling or perturbation methods Statistical and dynamic downscaling Runoff prediction in ungauged catchments Hydrologic sensitivity to rainfall and temperature Calibration/parameterisation and feedback modelling for extrapolation to the future Climate change impact in the context of other drivers Future catchmentscale climate Rainfall-runoff modelling to estimate climate change impact on future runoff River system and groundwater modelling to estimate climate change impact on future water availability for users across managed systems
24 Runoff, streamflow and water availability Runoff Natural Streamflow Development impact on streamflow Runoff can be defined as surface runoff or total runoff at a point, averaged across a grid or averaged across a catchment. Streamflow is the flow in a river. Streamflow is the variable that is measured/gauged in a river. Streamflow can be thought of as the runoff from a catchment that reaches the river. In managed river systems, natural streamflow is altered by development and water management rules, allocations and operations.
25 Runoff, streamflow and water availability In the Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project, water availability for a region is assessed as the mean annual streamflow (under predevelopment conditions) at a point where the river changes from net gaining to net losing. Total mean annual runoff across MDB (aggregated over all 0.05 o grid cells) is 28,900 GL. Total mean annual water availability (aggregated for the 18 MDBSY reporting regions) is 23,400 GL. Total mean annual streamflow is 14,500 GL at Wentworth and 12,200 GL at the mouth. Gains Losses Net streamflow Headwaters EOS
26 Summary Water resources issues and challenges. Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields (MDBSY) Project. Modelling historical, recent and future runoff across the Murray-Darling Basin (water and energy budgets). Modelling managed river and groundwater systems (water accounts of availability, storage, transfer and use).
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