Potential and Challenges of CNG and LNG for Long-Haul Trucks in Europe

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1 Potential and Challenges of CNG and LNG for Long-Haul Trucks in Europe Dr. Manfred Schuckert, Dr. Markus Baum, Dr. Christoph Hoehmann Daimler AG July 9 th, 2014 Daimler Potentials AG and Challenges of CNG and LNG

2 Overview 1 Drivers and Motivation 2 Fuel Trends and Cost Development 3 Engine and Vehicle Technology 4 Outlook on Infrastructure 5 Conclusion Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 2

3 Rising energy demand in road transport force governments to develop challenging fuel economy/co 2 standards for HDV Driver from transport perspective Overview: CO 2 regulations in force (Status 2013) [Mb/d] World oil demand total and by transport mode 110 [Mb/d] Cars 100 Road freight Other transports 101, ,3 13,4 14 transport transport High growth expected in transport sector (+28% till 2035) Main driver HDV, demand comes closer to passenger cars * Mb/d: Million barrels (159 l) per day HDV 17,4 19,5 19,2 22,7 Trucks/Buses. Pass. cars Phase 1 limits 2014/2017: Limits for vehicles + separated engine standard existing limits FCS starting Weight based limits 2014/15 FES: in place since 2006 Weight based limits 2015 Begin of next decade CO 2 limits will be likely in place or in preparation in all major markets. Tighter limits are expected in Japan, China and the USA/Canada International Energy Agency expects rapid growing energy demand by the transport sector despite all efficiency gains in the upcoming years. Fast increasing gas production in contrast to decreasing conventional oil supply. 3 Die Angebote der Industrie für eine tragfähige Regelung zu CO2- und Geräuschminderung

4 Euro VI with significant improvement in emissions Citaro Euro VI with significant improvement in real-life emissions Comparison of local emissions emissions [g/km] Euro V vs. Euro VI articulated city bus* Legal limits significantly undercut by Citaro Euro VI ,97 0,324 3,06 0,323 Euro V 12,03 Euro VI 0,647 NO [g/km] NO2 [g/km] NOx [g/km] CO [g/km] CO2 [kg/10km] 0,92 0,912 14,46 13,56 Euro VI: CH4 limit challenging More than just two limits on NO x and PM - technical issues which are usually not known: Durability procedures km (Euro V: km) Onboard Diagnosis - SCR (inducement measures) Off Cycle Emissions (NTE limit) - Approval by WP29 as gtr n 10 in June 2009 Particle Measurement Procedure Validation - very complex and expensive testing World Heavy Duty Cycle (WHDC) - First world-wide harmonized test-cycle mainly driven by Daimler - Test cycle will be applied to Euro VI standard In Service Conformity - Checking customer vehicles for emissions conformity with portable measurement systems * source: Prof. Dr. Pütz, Hochschule Landshut Institut für Nutzfahrzeugtechnik Euro VI vehicles will bring significant improvements for air quality in cities Euro VI package delivers what policy required Die Angebote der Industrie für eine tragfähige Regelung zu CO2- und Geräuschminderung 4

5 Clean Air for Europe (since 2005): Example Germany Forecast of NO x - and PM-emissions Heavy-Duty commercial vehicles in Germany NO X [kt/a] EU I EU II EU III EU IV EU V EU VI EU I EU II EU III EU IV EU V EU VI Mileage [bn km/a] PM [kt/a] Mileage [bn km/a] Source: Daimler calculation with TREMOD 5.25c, Basis, inland; own assumptions for mileage ; Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicles: Tucks, Buses By 2020 Heavy Duty Vehicles will be very minor in the contribution to Nox and PM emissions despite a growing demand on transport performance

6 Worldwide CO 2 regulations 2 Estimation of EU legislative process Monitoring and reporting of HDV CO 2 emissions in two steps Next steps and expected timeline CO 2 declaration within CoC papers Euro VI amendment Monitoring & Reporting Legislative proposal Regulation issued CO 2 type approval All main segments 3 initial segments (long haul, delivery, coach) Announcement of EU CO 2 HDV strategy in May 2014 Regulation on CO 2 monitoring & declaration is likely in place by 2016 Die Angebote der Industrie für eine tragfähige Regelung zu CO2- und Geräuschminderung 6

7 Pressure on CO2 emissions of Long Haul segment will rise HDV CO2 Emissions by Vehicle Segments 3 segments cover 60% of all CO2 emissions Relative subdivision according to total CO2 emissions per year (EU27, 2010) 3. Reduction potentials Long Haul (18t 25t) 40.9% Regional Delivery (7.5t 16t) 12.9% Coaches Urban Delivery 6.6% 3.4% Commercial vehicles are highly diverse in terms of size and mission. City Buses 8.3% Service Delivery ( t) 11.4% Utility 4.3% Construction 12.2% Initial phase of CO2 monitoring in the EU shall cover three main segments (dark blue). Sources: AEA (2011) First phase of EC monitoring focuses on long haul, regional delivery and coaches, and hence monitors about 60% of all CO2 emissions. > 80% would be reported if city buses and additional delivery segments were included. Including all vehicle segments is neither effective nor efficient.

8 Fuel trends and cost development 2 Shale gas policies in major markets differ Europe with a mixed picture World: exploration and production EU: non-uniform policy Exploration planned Yet to be decided Ban on fracking Shale boost in the US since Government follows strategy of energy security whilst low energy costs. Shale gas production contributes to it significantly. Gov. calls for ramping up gas industry (24 th Oct. 2012) to follow US success. Shale gas production of 6.5 billion m³ to be envisaged in First production drilling started in Australia end of Besides China and USA Australia have one of the biggest shale gas resources. EU parliament rejected a ban on shale gas and asked for a robust regulatory regime to address environmental concerns (21 st Nov. 2012). EU Commission is expected to come up with a framework for managing risks in Shell invests 7.5 bn for shale gas production in Ukraine - biggest shale gas deal in Europe so far. Chevron got certificates to explore for shale gas in eastern Romania (31 st January 2013). Gas boom in US serves as an example for China, Ukraine, Poland or Australia to increase energy security and to receive low energy costs whilst reducing GHG emissions. In contrast, in some important European countries dominate high concern about risks of fracking. Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 8

9 Fuel trends and cost development 2 Need for fuel alternative in Heavy-Duty sector Natural gas with cost and environmental advantages Increasing costs Diesel net price trend EU until 2011 Preis [EUR/l] 1,3 1,2 1,1 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0, Share of annual costs (German haulers) taxes/insurances maintenance duty admin. 12% staff 27% Vehicle invest 10% fuel 30% Price advantages Total fuel costs HD long haul for two years Diesel CNG =1 HPDI Low carbon content CO2 [kg/100km] CO 2 emissions WTW Diesel Production feedstock Liquefaction Transport LNG Refinery Compression Usage CNG *by use of biomethane Source: BGL 2011 based on fuel prices February 2013 in Germany 32l Diesel-eq./100km assumed, Source: PE INTERNATIONAL AG Cost advantages and less CO 2 emissions of natural gas might lead to a significantly growing gas demand towards Price advantage currently highly depending on natural gas price and tax policy in the EU. Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 9

10 Fuel trends and cost development 2 Liquefied natural gas as addition to existing natural gas supply New applications might change the energy landscape Supply Shale gas exploitation in the US Main developments Supply Massive investments of oil & gas companies > 100bn until 2015 New shale gas contracts in China, Ukraine, Romania, UK etc. Environmental pressure to capture NG during shale oil process Natural Gas (gaseous) Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Massive investments in new LNG tanker Worldwide trade Extensive build-up of new LNG terminals in EU and China Demand Demand Unclear demand for power production to be investigated - replacement of hard coal US - Less use of NG for power D Japan: short-term production electric power. Long term? China: LNG to compensate use of hard coal in the housing sector Expectations on a high growth (and profit) rate application in the transport sector is one of the main targets of the natural gas industry. Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 10

11 Engine and vehicle technology 3 At the moment, four different technologies are being discussed on the market Dual Fuel Challenging technology: diesel-gas engine, diesel injection required to start process of combustion Diesel only operation possible but no Gas (CNG/LNG) only operation SCR-System required = 1 HPDI Each technology with advantages and disadvantages Most challenging technology: gas-diesel engine, Duel Fuel Injector injects natural gas directly into the combustion chamber No Gas (CNG/LNG) or Diesel only operation SCR-System required Lean Burn Reliable technology: gasoline engine with spark plugs Single fuel (CNG/LNG) Three-Way-Catalyst Reliable technology: gasoline engine with spark-plugs Single fuel (CNG/LNG) SCR-System required Euro VI for Dual Fuel uncertain, =1 most suitable for MD engines, HPDI offers highest CO 2 reduction potential Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 11

12 Engine and vehicle technology 3 CO 2 reduction and efficiency of natural gas engines Comparison of OM906 Diesel and 906 CNG engine map CNG engines with = 1 Reliable technology: gasoline engine with spark plugs Single fuel (CNG/LNG) Air-fuel ratio referred to as Lambda () λ = 1 CNG engine requires three way catalyst For methane: constant mass ratio of 17,2 kg air/kg CH 4 CO 2 emission CNG rel. to Diesel (100% Methane [%]) Diesel engines or lean burn CNG engines Reliable technology: gasoline engine with spark-plugs Single fuel (CNG/LNG) SCR-System required Engines with > 1 operated with excess air. In case of diesel, air-fuel ratio is inhomogeneous during combustion process Difference ETA Diesel vs. Gas [%-points] Gas engine has a decrease in fuel economy of 7 % - 14 % depending on the duty cycle efficiency disadvantage vs. diesel engine. But: better hydrogen-/ carbon- relation of CNG, up to 23 % of CO 2 emission reduction. The effective CO 2 emission depends to a large extent on the duty cycle of the target application. In real operation a 5 to 10% CO2 reduction seems to be achievable! Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 12

13 Engine and vehicle technology 3 Pioneers in Natural Gas Market Freightliner leading NG deliveries of conventional heavy duty trucks Freightliner Trucks: 50% market share in conventional products Full factory installation First to publicly demonstrate ISX12 G-powered vehicle First to drive a loaded heavy duty commercial truck crosscountry on publicly available CNG Manufactured at Mt Holly, NC plant ISL G and fuel tanks installed on production line Orders placed through same tool and process as diesel vehicles All NG components factory installed and feature full factory warranty! CNG compression station on site Cascadia tractors feature full factory installation of engine and tanks at Cleveland, NC plant over 2000 Natural Gas vehicles delivered, Cost advantages and lower CO 2 emissions of natural gas might lead to a significantly growing gas demand towards Price advantage currently highly depending on natural gas price and tax policy in the EU. Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 13

14 Outlook on infrastructure 4 Necessary NG infrastructure not yet available The EC deployment proposal Directive on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure In January 2013 the European Commission has published a proposal for a Directive on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure with the following overall aims: Reduce oil dependency of transport in Europe Promote alternative fuels to decarbonise transport Reduce air pollution from transport The infrastructure of the following alternative fuels would have mandatory targets in the directive: Electricity Hydrogen CNG & LNG Necessary investment of 10.5 billion estimated to fulfill targets. Source: Targets until 2020 for CNG and LNG Set up a European transport corridor with LNG refueling installed every 400 km in total 181 stations (38 already exists) 650 additional CNG refueling stations to have refueling points across Europe with maximum distances of 150 km LNG fueling infrastructure for waterborne transport at all maritime and inland ports of the trans-europe transport core network (139 ports) Establish common standards for LNG and CNG refuelling stations for cars, trucks and vessels by 2015 The directive intends to overcome the chicken and egg problem of lacking infrastructure for energy supply to the customer and missing consumer demand. BUT it is much too less! Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 14

15 Outlook on infrastructure 4 EU Commission already initiated a research Current LNG fuelling situation insufficient for future demands Existing LNG terminals and L-CNG fuelling stations Minimum LNG refuelling network Source: European Commission - Commission Staff Working Document, Impact Assessment Fundaments for infrastructure are given to reach a sustainable LNG supply for long-haul traffic there is still a long way to go. Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 15

16 Outlook on infrastructure 4 LNG for long-haul applications Long-term political support required Tax system is favorable for Natural gas today but always jeopardized Long-term LNG supply secure - but LNG price development unclear As initial costs are high, long-term political support is necessary Monopolies have to be avoided refueling competition to be set in place Infrastructure set-up requires planning experience at all sides: Finance, Operator and Administration Common understanding in EU Decision of infrastructure companies Planning of LNG strategies Built-up of LNG stations Start of operations Standardization Diesel-competitive LNG trucks: ongoing development and testing and production Introduction as series fuel for long haul application requires homogeneous frame conditions Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 16

17 Outlook on infrastructure 4 Besides LNG supply other fuels need to be considered Future infrastructure for sustainable mobility will be complex Required supply of different fuel qualities and various electrical power ranges Gasoline E5 Gasoline E10 Gasoline Exx Diesel B7 CNG 200bar LNG saturated for trucks LNG unsaturated for trucks H2 700 bar 350 bar* Electric outlet xx kw Electric outlet yy kw El. fast charger zz kw * For FC city buses Mix of available fuels and electricity requires combined efforts! Large variety of fuels can hardly be handled by automotive and oil industry! Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 17

18 Conclusions 5 Summary and outlook Natural Gas is an attractive fuel for truck applications, due to: Abundant Natural Gas resources (lasting longer than crude oil) Lower operating costs in the US compared to diesel Better balance in terms of CO 2 and exhaust gas emissions compared to diesel Further CO 2 improvement potential by blending with bio-methane Natural gas technology is an established technology Challenges: Higher vehicle price compared to Diesel vehicle (e.g. Euro VI) Limited number of models available Limited operating range compared to diesel especially for CNG No sufficient fueling infrastructure for commercial vehicles available Uncertain market acceptance for natural gas commercial vehicles Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 18

19 Thank you for your attention Potentials and Challenges of CNG and LNG 19

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